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/leftypol/ - Leftist Politically Incorrect

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I just posted about a debt default scenario (i.e, USD goes plop, major economic fallout globally, American hegemony is likely dead as the US has to divert attention to internals to save the economy) in the stock market thread.

In such a case, the Chinese will probably become the premier economic power, and with cuts to American defense spending, within 10 years will become the premier global military power.

The nature of the world system and the designated hegemon now shifts.

Two questions:

First, will you be happy now that the US is fucked? If you're US-based, or even EU-based or even China-based, you'll be seeing massive economic damage in the process.

Second, will you switch sides and make China-bashing your new hobby now that Uncle Satan has been downed? It doesn't mean you've abandoned your socialist leanings, although quite a few people, given the fbi.gov in the United States, might go fascist because fash populism is attractive in a declining power, but will you be bashing China more now that it becomes the new global Big Bad?


Pictured: Space America's "last, best hope for peace".


America will start World War 3 before they avcept a decline.


America will decline before they get to start world war 3.


They have something called a nuclear arsenal lol if capital has nothing left to lose they have an excuse to use it.


Soviets never fired, despite having the largest arsenal on Earth.


i don’t think china will ever take the us’s place because i don’t think it wants to


America has a first-use policy stupid.


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>The nature of the world system and the designated hegemon now shifts.
Why does there have to be a hedgemon ?
why would china want to be hedgemon, as a regional power they become untouchable and won't need to deal with all the costs of maintaining an empire.



IIRC so did the Soviet Union. But the Soviets blinked, nukes weren't fired, the SU voted itself out of existence.



This is what I mean; the Chinese absolutely need the EU to be independent and not an American client / proxy. The United States / AUKUS / Quad / ABCA can sanction China all it wants, but as long as the EU maintains trade ties with China, the sanctions don't have effect.

As long as China still has market access to the EU, the American attempt to contain China will fail.


China vs the US as major hegemon is a timing issue / race condition. As long as the US doesn't zerg rush China between now and 2030, China will reach economic parity and be within 5 years of technological parity by 2030.

This implies the breakdown of the American World System as the United States, first, no longer has the ability to exert its will unchallenged, and second, it's no longer even the biggest consumer market.

Read stuff like American Tianxia. The United States' place in the World System is that it's the consumer of last resort; all countries wish to export to the United States and the American ability to deny other countries access to its markets and capital markets is the underpinning of the American World System.

However, for China to make it through to 2030 without an actual war, the place of the United States in the American World System collapses because now there are two suns in the sky.

Which is why I'm arguing that China will be effectively hegemonic; even if China refuses the hegemonic mantle (as is wise and prudent), China will end up being the world's primary market as well as its primary capital exporter. The underpinnings of the American world system will effectively have moved states.

The one thing I do hope the Chinese will do will be not to replicate the American disaster in Latin America; i.e, there will be a Chinese sphere as much as there is an American "core" sphere, but the American core sphere is filled with oligarchs and insurgencies, with poor human capital development in the region. The Chinese sphere, hopefully, will more resemble the European Union, because while there will be "poor" countries as much as Poland and Lithuania are in the European Union, they won't be treated as periphery states for resource extraction but as vital sources of Chinese power and thus worth developing.


the sad thing is although china has their economic might but its soft power is still weak compared to even japan or south korea.

china also won't influence that much people.


China traditionally had soft power; arguably, the Western system of tested bureaucracy derives from the Song civil service examinations. Maoism, likewise, was quite popular in the West during the 60s and 70s.

Moreover, China is beginning to make soft power pushes with things like Genshin; i.e, adopting weeabooist semiotics to push its own vision of global affairs.

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