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File: 1612177209727.jpg (506.4 KB, 1200x1569, Myanmar.jpg)

 No.64580[View All]

Hello everybody.
It seems a coup is being carried out in Myanmar, but i can't find the politics behind it.
Here a tweet explaining the events:
https://twitter.com/GerberaOf/status/1356157718218727426


Please post sources (better if socialist leaning ofc) and thoughts about it.
397 posts and 71 image replies omitted. Click reply to view.
>>

 No.103373

https://twitter.com/drsasa_mm/status/1367146652486746117

UK REQUESTED SECURITY COUNCIL MEETING ON MYANMAR
>>

 No.103381

>>103373
That doesn't mean they're gonna fuckin invade over it
>>

 No.103384

>>103241
>>103245
Fukuyama was right for the wrong reasons: history will no longer progress, not because it will stay liberal forever, but because it will unravel.
>>

 No.103388

>>103381
It depends. I believe one among China and Russia will veto any military proposal.

Sanctions are on their way IMHO.
>>

 No.103708

https://twitter.com/cvdom2021/status/1366952762550927361

First defections in Myanmar army. Early to say if this is significant but its something to keep an eye on.
>>

 No.103716

https://twitter.com/YourAnonCentral/status/1367172330716233731

Calls for using the Responsibility to protect clause are growing and getting mainstream.
Libya 2.0 in the making?
>>

 No.103825

>>103384
Hilarious enough, Fukuyama himself admitted to being wrong right after 2008. We are basically standing in the precipice of industrial civilization, if liberal capitalism continues unabated we will revert backwards to dark age level soon enough.
>>

 No.104467

Bumping while i'm searching for news
>>

 No.104501

>>103708
It's worth remembering that Burma has a fucktonne of formal militias in the ethnic minority areas.
>>

 No.105534

ETHNIC MILITIAS PROTECTING PROTESTERS

https://twitter.com/hannayuri_twt/status/1367830547536306179

The soldiers in the tweet belong to this

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karen_National_Union
>>

 No.105559

>>105534
This is really fucking big. This could be headed into a protracted people's war or a proper uprising.
>>

 No.105565

>>105559
You need a communist force to do PPW otherwise you get either an ethnic chimpout or another Somalia tier situation.
>>

 No.105566

>>105564
Libya didn't border both China and India, UN/NATO will be extremely hesitant to involve themselves in what could be an even bigger powder keg than Syria.
>>

 No.105568

>>105566
>Blinken
<Extremely hesitant to involve
Dude these guys are full on neocon there s no war they don't wanna take part in.
>>

 No.106150

https://twitter.com/ashoswai/status/1367922611322294276

CHINESE AMBASSADOR ASKS UN TO RESPECT MYANMAR SOVEREIGNTY

Is this prelude to a veto on military action'
>>

 No.106166

>>106150
china shouldn't be deffending the junta is so fucking obvious they are not gonna survive this shit
>>

 No.106168

>>

 No.106188

>>106166
They don't really stand a choice. At best they can get a deal on some heavy sanctions to apply to the Myanmar military, but every other scenario is lose-lose for them.
>>

 No.106191

How did this country get so fucked up?
>>

 No.106193

>>106191
50 years of ethnic warfare, a "socialist" more like ethnonationalist junta then cringe neolibs then far right military again.
>>

 No.106194

>>106191
That’s what happen when your first communist party try to negotiate with imperialists.
>>

 No.106239

>>106150
BRO MOMENTO. China approved the UNSC resolution for the 2011 military intervention in Libya, but they're not going to do it for this genocidal military regime?? Really taking their policy lessons from Henry Kissinger
>>

 No.106244

>>106239
Libya was far and irrelevant, and China wasn't powerful as it is now at the time.
(2011 is 10 years ago, i still can't believe it)

Fucking up Myanmar would create HUGE problems for them, from an economic humanitarian and even political standpoint.
>>

 No.106245

>>106239
welcome to mulitpolarity, everybody asked for it
>>

 No.106248

>>106245
The alternative is Somalia 2 tbh.
>>

 No.106249

>>106244
Redpill is that a strong African Union, which Green Libya was an enthusiastic patron of, and a real african trade bloc would put Chinese capital investments there at risk. They had the same interests as NATO in Libya.

Also Myanmar is fucked right now! Their military is conducting a genocide against the Rohingya which has creates 100s of thousands of refugees, and they're murdering dozens of people who aren't pleased with the military doing a coup. The military is also creating huge economic instability by doing shit like banning the Internet, wrecking the real estate market, locking the country down, etc. Don't simp for china like a cultist
>>

 No.106250

>>106248
Yeah, absolutely. And the US state dept would view that as a win
>>

 No.106251

>>106249
I'm not simping for China: if you go in the China thread i usually call out Dengists there.
I just think that they already have low level chaos, if they go full warlord chaos (which WILL happen if UN inavdes as shown by Somalia then Libya) with 54 million inhabitants (while bordering India China and Bangladesh) the consequences could be unpredictable (but a huge amount of suffering for hundreds of thousands is certain).
>>

 No.106258

File: 1614996208113.webm (974.75 KB, 720x480, 1613942931010.webm)

>>106249
>China does anything foreign policy wise
>omg this is evidence of China supporting ebil totalitarianism agenda across the globe
>US backs brutal dictatorship against the gommies for the 1000th time
>it's just how things are, maybe you gommies shouldnt be so violent :^)
>>

 No.106267

>>106251
That isn't how transfers of power work, the collapse of the central authority in Somalia was b/c there wasn't a unified opposition movement to fill the power vacuum, instead clan-based territorial violence prevailed. In Libya there was a lack of political infrastructure, destabilizing terrorist attacks, and the country's leadership fractured after only 3 years. In Myanmar, the democratic-parliamentary infrastructure is all there, they just had elections! There is a unified opposition, there are no terrorist groups. There's even a figurehead to fill in the power vacuum, Aung San Suu Kyi.
so this: >if they go full warlord chaos (which WILL happen
is a total fantasy
>>

 No.106268

>>106258
are you brain damaged?? Death to America and fuck Chinese foreign policy
>>

 No.106272

>>106268
foreign intervention isnt a good thing
>>

 No.106279

>>106275
<There is a unified opposition
Anon this is a thing
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internal_conflict_in_Myanmar

And if the army collapses what do you think will happens in the territory where insurgency is raging?

Also even if the Tatmadaw gets wiped they won't vanish completely but most likely some elements will mount an insurgency.
>>

 No.106296

>>106279
The military isn't going to disappear, the officer corps should get purged, but rank and file soldiers probably won't be affected. And the military has fanned the flames of these insurgencies, which are for national self-determination, by cracking down on them with scorched earth style tactics and attempting to impose a common national identity. Even the recent 'democratic' puppet government didn't have much autonomy in this regard, because the military wanted full autonomy over national security, and made sure that this was established in the constitution. Barring a social revolution, the only thing that's really going to reduce the ethnic conflict is a new constitution, civilian control over the military, and a federal union.
>>

 No.106299

>>106296
I actually agree, i just don't want this to be achieved 1)by neolibs
2) Via foreign military occupation

Also i think a People's Army on the Swiss Army/Bolivarian Militia model would be better than a standing one for Myanmar.
>>

 No.106306

>>106299
By the way, the CRPH or the rump cabinet from the deposed neolib government has declared they intend to create federal democracy and abolish the 2008 constitution https://twitter.com/hninyadanazaw/status/1367805623845351427

The R2P clause doesn't necessarily mean military intervention, in this case it's looking like multilateral sanctions and not military intervention b/c of the extreme risk that would expose protesters to. If the rest of the world stopped arms sales and development projects and provided humanitarian assistance to the population, it could help the civilian government get restored.
>>

 No.106313

>>106306
IF (and i stress IF) they will act via sanctions ONLY, then it will be better.
Still the neoliberal party sucks big time though, and i hope something to their left emerges, which i have the impression is not unlikely to happen if there's no military intervention from outside.
>>

 No.106403

>>106258
>you either support one imperial power or the other, no alternative!!!
Are you five? Fuck sake dengoids are animals when it comes to critical thinking.
>>

 No.106505

>>105564
>The Soy Milk Alliance wants a Syrian-tier civil war with Amerishart bombs falling like rain on their cities.

Sigh… I would pay good money to watch these white worshiping zoomers get reeducated with hot pokers and bayonets.
>>

 No.106554

>>106505
The only way these protests will turn to something fully progressive (in the socdem sense) or even socialist is by leaving them alone to deal with the military.
Any external intervention would lead to the most reactionary liberal elements taking power.
>>

 No.106673

https://twitter.com/YamoneV/status/1368052327672930310/photo/1

Watching these protests photos i'm wondering if the fact that the logo on the shields in the frontline (which is a variation from the usual protest symbol) and that acronym have a different meaning or are just an aesthetic variation on the themes of the protest.
>>

 No.106681

>>106673
ANy idea what ISN means? cant find any results for it.
>>

 No.106879

>>106681
Neither could i, could be the name of the city abbreviated or something else.
>>

 No.106912

File: 1615063041083.gif (688.01 KB, 244x188, write that down.gif)

>>

 No.106919

File: 1615063405968.png (228.91 KB, 600x400, ClipboardImage.png)

>>

 No.107029

This is on midnight tomorrow night ( anglo-land time.)
>>

 No.107064

File: 1615069803961.jpg (23.08 KB, 612x344, yaba_15.jpg)

How significant is the role of drug production in the economy of myanmar? From what ive seen, ethnic armed groups and state elements have both benefited from the production of opium and meth
>>

 No.107470

>>107064
Given Myanmar's position (between China Laos Thailand India and Bangladesh, all highly populated states) and given the existence of the Golden Triangle area (the tri border between Laos Myanmar and Thailand, which is the second biggest producer of opium in the world, only surpassed by Afghanistan) the role of drugs in the economy is very significative.
>>

 No.107472

https://twitter.com/ChalecosAmarill/status/1368490647351607298

It seems today approach from the military is "Isolate single persons and beat the shit out of them".

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