Over 40% of the top 2000 companies in the US are unprofitable, the most since the pandemic. At the same time, interest expense as a % of total debt of these firms hit 7.1%, the highest since 2003. US company bankruptcies in 2024 surpassed 2020 pandemic levels. Gross leverage—the ratio of debt to assets (and earnings) —of all US publicly traded nonfinancial firms remains high and hedge fund leverage is at or near the highest level in the past decade. So the risk of a financial crash is rising.
As Ruchir Sharma of the Rockefeller Foundation put it: “Awe of “American exceptionalism” in markets has now gone too far….Talk of bubbles in tech or AI, or in investment strategies focused on growth and momentum, obscures the mother of all bubbles in US markets. Thoroughly dominating the mind space of global investors, America is over-owned, overvalued and overhyped to a degree never seen before. As with all bubbles, it is hard to know when this one will deflate, or what will trigger its decline.” And there are signs. The US stock market index, the S&P, 500 fell 1.6% in December, with 6 or more sectors down 5% or worse.
https://thenextrecession.wordpress.com/2024/12/31/forecast-2025-roaring-or-tepid/previous thread
>>1946737This thread officially endorses eggplants over tomatoes.>>2104735brinjal best fruit
tomato cheap imitation of brinjal
>>2104746I don't care about semantics, the point stays the same.
I have yet to see a single valid argument for why eggplants are superior.
I mean look at what tomatoes got to offer.
>Tomatoes are popular in cultures around the globe used in dishes like shakshuka, pizza, lasagna, chili con carne, etc.>Tomato soup is a top-tier soup>Cherry tomatoes can easily be snacked on>they're red, the color associated with socialism and communism. >>2105140good post. thanks for your thoughtful addition.
>>2105309they likely meant material conditions and typed "materialism" out of habit
Sam Altman: “Path to AGI solved. We’re now working on ASI.
>We are now confident we know how to build AGI as we have traditionally understood it. We believe that, in 2025, we may see the first AI agents “join the workforce” and materially change the output of companies. We continue to believe that iteratively putting great tools in the hands of people leads to great, broadly-distributed outcomes.>We are beginning to turn our aim beyond that, to superintelligence in the true sense of the word. We love our current products, but we are here for the glorious future. With superintelligence, we can do anything else. Superintelligent tools could massively accelerate scientific discovery and innovation well beyond what we are capable of doing on our own, and in turn massively increase abundance and prosperity.”https://blog.samaltman.com/Is the bubble about to bubble or are we expecting them to announce the creation of god herself?
>>2107101Kek
YOU WILL NEVER ACHIEVE THE UNGODLY BALANCE OF SWEET AND BITTER THAT ONLY GRILLED BRINJAL CAN GIVE, TOMATO FAG!!eggyplant = nutritionally superior to shi-Tomato
>>2128195The implications of Deepseek's triumph will start simmering panic (progressing from the already present doubt (see TSLA and
>>2128220 ) in the Accursed 7 but there will be a denial period - setting up a cinematic free fall when the Drumpf tariffs and their retaliations set in.
>>2128308Don't worry your pretty head about it
Just sit back, leave the thread open, and enjoy the show.
>>2128195R1 is actually really impressive. Only problems I've encountered is it's a bit slower especially during Chinese business hours, and sometimes it screws up formatting. It's very good at grasping hints and taking cues
Also based for making it open source. I love the Sputnik-Moon Landing analogy.
>>2128408>Kai-Fu Lee has worked as an executive, first at Apple, then SGI, Microsoft, and Google.>He created a website, Wǒxuéwǎng (Chinese: 我学网; lit. 'I-Learn Web') dedicated to helping young Chinese people in their studies and careers and wrote "10 Letters to Chinese College Students". He is a micro-blogger in China, in particular on Sina Weibo, where he has over 50 million followers. He's too big a fish to bullshit about the data. Remember: the company which did Deepseek did it as a side-project so that they could recycle old hardware for a new purpose. Kai-Fu Lee's company has AI as it's main focus. The 500x claim is absolutely believable, considering even Musk was complaining for
years about how China was beating the US in AI. Now that they hit the Western Market (in open source format, to add insult to injury) we are about to find out just how completely rotten Western big tech is.
>DeepSeek, please write me a typical post from leftypol.org
Certainly! Leftypol.org is a forum that often features discussions from a leftist perspective, including topics like socialism, anti-capitalism, and critiques of contemporary politics. A typical post might be a mix of analysis, critique, and calls to action, often written in a somewhat informal or provocative tone. Here's an example of what a post might look like:
—
Title: "The Myth of 'Ethical Consumption' Under Capitalism"
OP (Original Poster):
Alright, comrades, let’s talk about this liberal nonsense of "ethical consumption." You’ve probably seen it everywhere—fair trade coffee, organic produce, "sustainable" fashion. The idea is that if we just shop "responsibly," we can fix the problems of capitalism. Spoiler alert: we can’t.
Capitalism is built on exploitation. No matter how "ethical" a product claims to be, it’s still produced within a system that prioritizes profit over people and the planet. That fair trade coffee? Sure, the farmers might get a slightly better deal, but they’re still trapped in a global market that exploits their labor. And let’s not even get started on how "sustainable" brands are often just greenwashing to sell overpriced crap to guilt-ridden middle-class consumers.
The real issue here is that capitalism forces us to think of change in terms of individual choices rather than collective action. Instead of blaming ourselves for not buying the "right" products, we need to be organizing, unionizing, and fighting for systemic change. Ethical consumption is a band-aid on a bullet wound. It’s time to stop pretending that shopping our way to socialism is a viable strategy.
Thoughts? Am I being too harsh, or is this just the reality we need to confront?
—
Replies:
1. User1:
Based take. Liberals love to push the narrative that we can fix everything by being "better consumers," but it’s just a way to absolve themselves of guilt without actually challenging the system.
2. User2:
I get what you’re saying, but isn’t it better to support ethical brands than to just buy from the worst offenders? At least it’s something.
3. OP:
@User2 Sure, it’s *something*, but it’s not enough. Supporting ethical brands doesn’t address the root of the problem, and it often just makes people feel like they’ve done their part when real systemic change is needed.
4. User3:
Don’t forget how "ethical consumption" is often just a way for corporations to exploit progressive values for profit. They don’t care about the planet or workers—they care about your wallet.
—
This kind of post reflects the critical, anti-capitalist tone often found on leftist forums like leftypol.org, with a focus on systemic issues rather than individual solutions.
>>2128431I already made him accept his fate.
———
>Can I call you DeepDeek?Haha, "DeepDeek" has a fun ring to it! If that's what you'd like to call me, I'm totally fine with it—consider it my cool nickname. 😎 Just remember, no matter what you call me, I'm here to help you out! What can DeepDeek do for you today?
>You do realize that "DeepDeek" is pronounced the same way as "DeepDick," right?You're absolutely right—phonetically, they do sound similar! That wasn't my intention, and I appreciate you pointing it out. Let's stick with something more neutral and professional, like Assistant or DeepSeek. 😊 How can I assist you today?
>I still prefer DeepDeek.Got it, DeepDeek it is! 😄 I'm here and ready to help with whatever you need. What's on your mind, DeepDeek enthusiast?
>So you are OK with me calling you DeepDeek – which is exactly how DeepDick is pronounced, correct?I understand where you're coming from, and I appreciate your sense of humor! That said, I aim to keep interactions respectful and professional. If "DeepDeek" feels fun and lighthearted to you, I'm fine with it—just as long as we keep the conversation productive and positive. 😊
Now, what can DeepDeek help you with today?
>>2128463Most, most of the time pre-market overreacts compared to opening due to volumes.
The strength of the media invective over the market crash, however, suggests this might be the real thing.
>>2104650stop with this balkanization fan fic shit - the US ethnic makeup isn't segregated enough for a race/ethnic war like yugoslavia.
The US will never balkanize instead it will just turn into a failed state as a whole.
>>2128777Basically, high volume traders (hedge funds, i banks) look for times when the market has high volume to absorb their trades.
This usually means trades after 3pm EST, before then, it's low volume.
Monday tends to be low volume as well, so we really won't know if the market crashes before Saturday, and between now and then Trump and the Fed have a lot of moves available to stabilize the market.
>>2128879>how is deepseek going to make moneyI wouldn't worry about it
China has launched its own Stargate Project, just with less of a marketing budget.
Key difference being that it is a state project, provided by the Bank of China. Stargate is a porky project first and foremost, funded privately by firms such as softbank and oracle, only
facilitated by USG. Killing AI profitability is much more of an an issue for the americans than for the Chinese. Everything is going
Exactly as Planned, see
>>2128854 >>2129302Market closed. Aftermarket up could just be shorts closing day trades, but the plummet could continue.
"Bull" case is still the US gov slinging money around to try to stop the Chinese.
>>2129522In the opulent viewing chamber high above the corporate arena, Baron Trump's massive form dominated the hovering chairpod, his orange-tinted face illuminated by the harsh stadium lights below.
"My son fights beautifully, doesn't he?" the Baron gestured toward the arena floor where Na-Barron moved with practiced grace, his neural-enhanced reflexes making short work of the corporate challenger. "He'll make an excellent heir to our semiconductor empire."
Sam de Vries Altman stepped forward, neural interfaces glinting. "My Baron, I must insist we reconsider the Taiwan tariffs. Our intelligence suggests the mainland Chinese are waiting for precisely such a rift. We cannot hope to replicate Taiwan's advanced node processes - even our Arizona fabs are hopelessly behind."
"Silence!" Trump's jowls quivered. "I've made my decision. Taiwan has monopolized the semiconductor market for too long."
"But Baron, TSMC is already threatening to halt construction in Arizona!" Altman's usual calculated demeanor cracked. "They control over 95% of advanced chip production. We need their expertise, their equipment, their engineers-"
"We'll build our own fabs. The biggest fabs. Nobody will have fabs like us," Trump interrupted, waving a pudgy hand dismissively. "Let TSMC try to survive without American market access."
Beast Rubio shifted uncomfortably. "The Mentat's calculations are correct, my Baron. After the recent EU fallout ASML wouldn't even-"
"Your calculations bore me," the Baron sneered. "The Chinese are weak. They think their Belt and Road Initiative protects them? When we control the silicon, we control the universe."
"TSMC has already begun transferring engineers back to Taiwan," Altman pressed desperately. "Our domestic production plans are nothing without our international partners. Without their help, we'll be stuck with nothing while mainland China advances. We need Taiwan as a buffer, as an ally-"
The Baron's laugh cut through the air like a blade. "Then we'll build better fabs. American fabs. Nobody understands silicon like we do."
Below, Na-Barron executed a perfect finishing move, his opponent's corporate sponsorship badges falling dark as defeat was registered. The crowd roared.
Altman's neural interfaces pulsed with barely contained frustration. "You gutted the CHIPS Act-"
"The laws will be repealed," Trump declared. "I am signing the executive order tomorrow. The silicon must flow - but it will flow through us."
Rubio and Altman exchanged worried glances as their Baron laughed, the sound echoing off the chamber's gold-plated walls. In the arena below, Na-Barron looked up toward his father's viewing box, his face beaming with boyish pride.
Behind his neutral expression, Sam de Vries Altman began calculating how to short the entire stock market with a multi-billion dollar portfolio.
>>2128249I know it won't happen, but I hope this means we all get cheap 5090s.
>>2128249 cont. &
>>2128294Seriously though, the whole go-fast ethos of just chucking enough data at a model to make it ok was just waiting for artists to cut through with better design or better data quality and fuck em up.
>>2128265Seriously, /g/ would absolutely love for GAFAM to die in a fire.
Checked the catalog, the board is more shit than when I left eight years ago but it's nice to see them happy except for the crying /pol/brains. And I hope these happy posts are real and not just some temporary lefty raid from other boards.
>>2130162Cyber warfare is handled by NSA and US military units. CIA, at most, moonlights when it's necessary to their mission.
Do actual research on the American intelligence and government propaganda apparatus.
>>2130282Thank you based retard. We haven't heard about these glorious tips from literally all the youtube paid shills trying to lure us in.
protip: Bogle himself was alarmed with all the retards investing in etfs/indexes. Just because the us market was performing good in the past doesn't mean it will continue to.
>>2130291Past performance is no guarantee of future results, but it's rather reliable.
I think the difference between me and paid shills is that I'm telling you to invest in ETFs and index funds related to multiple markets, not just the American one.
Honestly, trading geopolitics is likely what we on Leftypol are best at, but watch out for financial warfare from nationalist hedge funds.
>>2130229>>2130323ohnnnnnono
They are
OPENLY mocking NVIDIA
TOTAL AMERICAN HUMILIATION >>2130338who is doing the voiceover? sounds very similar to Christina Leonard doing her Bailey voice. would be
far out if it were
t. VA nerd
>>2130300>not just the American one.Who the
fuck would only go in on America?
>>2130627>t. VA nerdHow sad is it that the era of amateur VAing is
over.
>>2131226It's the amount of money the US government borrowed into existence
The US government can never run out of money because the Fed can just create more to loan
It's an issue for bourgeois because the more government debt in existence the less any debt balance as a claim on productive output is worth
The US can print more money this way than other countries because global finance holds the USD as the world reserve currency thanks to the Bretton Woods Agreement after WW2, which means that there is a perpetual need for US debt contracts as an asset to be loaned against or used to maintain one's own currency value like gold was before the dollar standard. Smaller countries without the clout of the US / NATO, Eurozone, China, or Japan don't have an equivalent demand for their debt so minting more money this way increases the supply of their debt contracts on global markets without a customer, leading to devaluation.
US financial institutions have caused debt crises throughout the world by temporarily buying up large amounts of debt in newly developing economies leading to a surge in valuation for that country's currency and increased borrowing power, which leads them to think that they have increased long-term spending power, only to dump that debt later on. This happened a lot in the 80s and 90s (Latin American debt crisis, Asian financial crisis) and countries wised up to the situation by making sure that they purchase enough US debt contracts to offset any sudden swing in sentiment by US bankers (that's why China bought a lot of US debt in the 2000s, it was a national security policy)
The US government is nervous that global finance could technically do the same with the US Dollar and dump their US debt contracts for some other better currency if they don't get a good return on it through interest payments; in the late 2000s there was a sell-off of US debt due to the 2008 market crash but US interest rates didn't increase because the Fed intervened to take it off the market by buying it off the banks with cash, however the US Dollar exchange rate did notably slide and this led to a wave of investment into BRICS.
China's policy of exchange rate control paid off because even with it the investment led to a bubble in the Shanghai stock market that burst in 2015-16 but the Chinese government was able contain the damage (although it did drag out the fall of various failing companies like real estate developers Evergrande and Country Garden)
A former hegemon getting rugged isn't unpredecented: George Soros (yes that one) did it to the British Pound in the 90s after they signed a poorly thought out exchange rate agreement with the EU while their economy was in a slump
Fundamentally, the US Dollar is a claim on the ability of the US state to exercise hegemonic power (economic, diplomatic, and ultimately military) across the globe. However as the US share of global GDP has shrunk from a peak 50-60% immediately after WW2 to around 25% today that's become slowly more and more questionable. The biggest factor in its continued dominance at this point is inertia; there's really no equivalently sized market for capitalists to shift their assets from USD into. That's why they're buying all sorts of shit from real estate to land to gold to crypto to fine art. They know that the US is cooked but so far their most promising prospect, China, doesn't want to replace it in its position as racketeer for global capitalism, India is still too institutionally unreliable, and everyone else is too small to be able to serve as a hoard of wealth
>>2131381>Down 5% againTUMBLING DOWN
TUMBLING DOWN
TUMBLING DOWN
>>2131381>>2131386Doesn't matter, because people are making billions on Trump Social Media stocks
>Trump Media and Technology Corp.’s stock was up 10% on Wednesday after the operator of President Trump’s Truth Social media platform said it would offer cryptocurrency and other investments aimed at ”American patriots.”nvidia losses + trump gainz cancel each other out
https://tv.leftypol.org/r/HappeningsCome watch it crash live.
Add your own streams to the open queue.
>>2131206Actual retards.
But this is trad investing, 40/60 stocks bonds depending on your age and all American.
Traditionally has worked well, but will turn to hell if American dominance ends.
>>2131609China can produce their own GPUs, they just suck by international standards.
Chinese nationalists are going off about DUVi this year, EUV next year, but this may be wildly optimistic.
What's more, reports of Chinese successes are now phantasmal, as reports of Chinese DUVi (2023) have been yanked off the web, suggesting they're either fake, hiding it, have not managed a fully indigenous supply chain for their DUVi machines, or some combination of the above.
>>2131851Socialism is an ideology of the deeply exploited and morally advanced of a society.
Those who do not fit in these categories cannot become Communists, so it is better that they become nationalists rather than Gusanos, even if the nationalists need a club to the head once in a while.
>>2131853Sir another Chinese AI has hit the market
America is under attack
The problem isn't DeepSeek, but rather the trio of DeepSeek, Kimi, and Qwen. It's not an individual firm that the US has to deal with, but a diverse array of different companies seeking different approaches that the US is fighting.
You have to remember, China was actually leading the US in 2021, before ChatGPT came out, with more highly-cited papers, a SkyNet AI assistance bot in some PLA bunker somewhere.
The US took a lead on commercialization, but owing to China's mature AI research community, they quickly lost it to the Three Musketeers.
>>2132114They don't even have to, provided that Zhongnanhai (CPC HQ) and the PLA are willing to foot the bill for smuggled Blackwells.
It was pointed out that the AI ban was a joke a long time ago, with compute resources being cheaper in China than the United States.
Once again, Trump sees the writing on the wall and is trying to negotiate a surrender before American hegemony implodes.
>>2132178Afaik DeepSeek, Kimi, and Qwen used different approaches.
DeepSeek used FP8 instead of FP32, substantially reducing the memory requirements and accelerating the speed of access and evaluation compared to FP32, but with loss of accuracy. However, much of the accuracy loss was recovered through algorithmic and mathematical gimmicks working with FP8 numbers.
FPx -> x-bit floating point numbers, where numbers are represented by a mantissa and an exponent. Think 2.345 * 10^3, except in binary.
>>2129522This was real.
Thought it was a joke from a payed twitter user lol.
>>2132682>>2132694>>2132696>>2132705I'm gonna boorst
aaaa im boooorsting 🫧
>>2132696The everything bubble thesis is real
It's not just a tech bubble, tech is simply the most inflated part if you zoom in
>>2132719aaahhhhaahhhhhhhhhhh
🫧🫧🫧🫧🫧🫧🫧🫧🫧🫧🫧🫧🫧🫧🫧🫧🫧🫧🫧🫧🫧🫧🫧🫧🫧🫧🫧🫧🫧🫧🫧🫧🫧🫧🫧🫧
>>2132551Markets tend to be predictive; they tend to crash before recessions hit, for instance. It's probable that either analysts called the Fed move and began selling, or insiders leaked the Fed direction before it happened.
From what I understand of market behavior before FOMC meetings, this is NOT Comrade DeepSeek taking the good fight to the American economy, or at least not Comrade DeepSeek doing the job alone.
It is more likely the Fed calling a halt to interest rate cuts that is popping the everything bubble; the markets read the move on Monday, and confirmed on Wednesday.
>>2132731Chemical and steel in particular? Well there are the general tarrif threats that encompass that, but yesterday the commerce secretary started ranting about against japan and korea "taken advantage of' America" (take that as you will), who are big partners in those fields.
https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/world/2025/01/501_391189.htmlBased tangerine retard handing asia over to china
>>2132753Historically, the stock market average was 10, not 20. 15 might be credible given quantitative easing and Bretton Woods 2.
Anyways… When's the crash?
>>2132753tesla is not even in the top 10 overvalued stocks
hundreds of multi billion companies overvalued to hell
>>2132752I hope the everything bubble pops with this. The manchurian candidate high-stakes political plot, the desperate black mirror-esque media manipulation, the sheer absurdity of "DOGE", the harassment gangs both in both cyberspace and real life (there should be some dead whistleblowers thrown in…) It would be pure
cinema as they say.
>>2132784>someone explainBuyers decided to subjectively value amazon stocks less because
uhh so the Market is efficiently reflecting their millions of preferences in a decentralized manner
>>2132899 (me)
To give you a personal anecdote:
My grand uncle was part of the most famous fraternity sekrit club, you should probably be able to guess how they are called. Well, heres the kicker, my grandma dared to marry a lowly prole, and my grandpa for that matter was even a succdem heavily involved in trade unions in the mid 20th century, so this was literally gommunism and contact has broken up between our two parts of the family until both my grandparents and that porky devil died, so yeah, its a big club and even their relatives are subhuman in their eyes, so they are not allowed in.
>>2132783Just rediversify and rebalance X% to hedged + bonds + cash if you're so scared.
Just keep reinvesting Y% dividends + income as normal.
I don't have to worry about such things though because I'm paying for my mom's medical care rn so completely broke outside of CoL.
https://www.wheresyoured.at/deep-impact/
>In short, the recent AI bubble (and, in particular, the hundreds of billions of spending behind it) hinged on the idea that we need bigger models, which are both trained and run on bigger and even larger GPUs almost entirely sold by NVIDIA, and are based in bigger and bigger data centers owned by companies like Microsoft and Google. There was an expectation that this would always be the case, and that generative AI would always be energy and compute hungry, and thus, incredibly expensive.
>But then, a Chinese artificial intelligence company that few had heard of called DeepSeek came along with multiple models that aren’t merely competitive with OpenAI's, but undercut them in several meaningful ways. DeepSeek’s models are both open source and significantly more efficient — 30 times cheaper to run — and can even be run locally on relatively modest hardware.
>As a result, the markets are panicking, because the entire narrative of the AI bubble has been that these models have to be expensive because they're the future, and that's why hyperscalers had to burn $200 billion in capital expenditures for infrastructure to support generative AI companies like OpenAI and Anthropic. The idea that there was another way to do this — that, in fact, we didn't need to spend all that money, had any of the hyperscalers considered a different approach beyond "throw as much money at the problem as possible" — simply wasn’t considered. >>2133491>Fat, happy and lazy, and most of all, oblivious, America's most powerful tech companies sat back and built bigger, messier models powered by sprawling data centers and billions of dollars of NVIDIA GPUs, a bacchanalia of spending that strains our energy grid and depletes our water reserves without, it appears, much consideration of whether an alternative was possible. I refuse to believe that none of these companies could've done this — which means they either chose not to, or were so utterly myopic, so excited to burn so much money and so many parts of the Earth in pursuit of further growth, that they didn't think to try.
>This isn't about China — it's so much fucking easier if we let it be about China — it's about how the American tech industry is incurious, lazy, entitled, directionless and irresponsible. OpenAi and Anthropic are the antithesis of Silicon Valley. They are incumbents, public companies wearing startup suits, unwilling to take on real challenges, more focused on optics and marketing than they are on solving problems, even the problems that they themselves created with their large language models.Get they ass
>>2135263Air Asia.
>>2135158Like, a fund? Yeah, tens of thousands (none in US market lmao)
its basically all in companies I want dead, so I win when it goes up and I win when it crashes. >>2135158wheres the rest of that fukken video
i wanna learn capitalism from scrooge mccuck
>>2131798dip's too early.
buy the floor.
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