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/leftypol/ - Leftist Politically Incorrect

"The anons of the past have only shitposted on the Internet about the world, in various ways. The point, however, is to change it."
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Not reporting is bourgeois


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Why don't you put your money where your mouth is?
Autists of all lands unite, you have nothing to lose but your gain$

The first general entirely dedicated to betting on political happenings (or lack thereof). For those too afraid to do dangerous adventurism, there is always venture capital. Chinese stocks, Russian stocks any & all that coincide with your political LARP are welcome here, post your most daring bets and show your autistic bravery here!
Think of this as wallstreetbets for the left wing of capital. Or just regular wallstreetbets on leftypol if you believe they're the successors to occupy wall street.

Poverty is not socialism. To be rich is glorious. -Deng Xiaoping

Basic links:
https://polymarket.com/
https://polymarketanalytics.com/
https://www.aljazeera.com/
https://www.bloomberg.com/
https://tradingeconomics.com/china/stock-market
https://robinhood.com/us/en/

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this seems likely though


Everyone go all in on BABA and TCEHY

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This is another easy one

>>2290816
HURRY UP ITS ALMOST JUNE, MAX OUT ON NO

FNMA

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fannie-freddie-otc-shares-climb-124202717.html

We're looking at a potential triple or more in the next year or two.

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>>2290816
not so fast, look what he wore to meet his german masters yesterday. that's pretty damn close to being a suit

>>2290822
That's not a suit

BYD stock up 54%, Tesla down 11% YTD 4 days ago the indian was right

>>2290828
up 102% in 1 year 563% in 5 years
Tesla doom is trve

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>>2290804
You can even bet "will Russian take X city by [date]" on Polymarket but I stay away from those because idk

I'm playing with these right now. There was a poll the other day showing Zohran catching up to Cuomo, and the Working Families Party endorsed him last night. Which makes me think an AOC endorsement is coming up. Maybe in a week. I doubt Zohran wins but he seems underpriced and might pop if AOC comes out for him, and I think she will. So there's one market that should resolve to yes, and another market where Zohran should rise some more.

That's my theory anyways.

Most of my winnings have been on the Canadian elections and India/Pakistan. I got in on Carney early, and bet on India striking Pakistan. Then there was another market on whether India would *invade* Pakisan and then bet no on that, and made a little more as the price on yes dropped as the conflict quieted down.

I don't like to bet on election night swings. A lot of people do this but I don't think it's worth the squeeze and you can quickly lose your ass doing that. Also never assume a candidate who is priced at 90c is going to win or won't take a plunge as a race tightens, so I don't like to just dump money on candidates at 90c on an assumption they'll win.

>>2290828
I had some Grindr stock that was doing well but I sold it.

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short gain$ NOW

>>2290838
AOC is going to endorse him next week and then his polls will shoot up. Go long on him, now.

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>>2290842
I'm already in.

I think the "trick" with this is identifying mismatches between trends and pricing. Polymarket traders also skew way to the right and their biases influence their decisions. They're not always wrong though. They just get emotionally invested. Also, unlike the stock market, irrational behavior on betting markets doesn't help political candidates stay solvent like they can companies, and the inevitable corrections also come much faster because they're tied to yes/no events.

On Canada, I think think a lot of "dumb" money went in on PP because he looked like a shoe-in at 90c earlier this year. It did look ike he was going to win in a landslide, but they didn't anticipate the beyond furious reaction to the tariffs, and didn't understand certain things about Canadian political culture or Carney's appeal. Once PP started diving, there was a lot of traders who were like "the CCP is rigging the market" (lol) as if the market was going to help Carney win. I wasn't playing around with this last year, but there were liberals who said that about a French whale who went all in on Trump, and he was correct, but the liberals thought the whale was skewing the market to create momentum to help Trump win the election. But I doubt that has any effect.

I do sell at a loss sometimes if I get spooked. But I'll take a loss if I'm up several times that somewhere else. Also didn't put any of my "own" money in initially, but some crypto I accumulated for using Brave and didn't know what to do with. My first real bet was on Biden pardoning Liz Cheney which was a YOLO move, and won that, which got the ball rolling.

>>2290804
Should've added kalshi for burgerreich citizens
https://kalshi.com/?category=politics

>>2290851
Can someone explain how this shit works?
I never gambled in my life except i bought a scratchcard once 20 years ago.


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>>2290962
Think sports betting but for politics and other things. It's a "predictions market" (which is essentially gambling) in which "traders" (betters) place yes/no bets on future events by buying "shares" of "yes" or "no" which are priced somewhere between 0 cents and 100 cents before the resolution. When events resolve "yes" then each share resolves to 100 cents, and no shares resolve to zero cents, or vice versa if the event did not happen (each "no" share goes to 100c and each "yes" share goes to zero).

For example, a market can be: who will win the U.S. presidential election? There are actually four options. You can buy Trump yes, or Trump no. Or Kamala yes, or Kamala no. If you buy 50 shares of "Trump yes" priced at 50c/share, then your $25 turns into $50 if he wins. You double your money. If he loses, you lose the $25.

And it works like a market so people can bid up or crash the price. What this means practically is people betting on events they think will either resolve "yes" or "no," or they play short-term fluctuations in the price, like they just expect the price to go up, and then they sell, rather than waiting for the resolution. An event that ultimately resolves "yes" can often go down in price because the betters get it wrong, which is very profitable for those who get it right.

The devil is also in the details. Like the "spread" (wider in low liquidity markets), or the details on the event itself. Like "will Zelensky wear a suit before June" is disputed because what a suit actually is was left kind of vague in the rules. There are some vague, shady "markets" like that.

And it's crypto-based. And you might have to use a VPN to use it because some countries don't allow it. And it's backed by Peter Thiel.

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More details. Here are the rules and the order book for the "nothing ever happens" market. (Which resolves "yes" – that nothing ever happens – if none of these five events happen. If one of these events happen, the market resolves to "no" because something happened). In the order book, there's a listing of yes/no shares available to buy, the price per share, and the total $ amount of shares available at each price.

So if I want to buy "yes" (that nothing ever happens), there's 268.33 shares available at 49c/share, for a total of $131.48 worth of shares going at that share price. If those shares are bought up, the price for "yes" will then increase to 51c/share.

This is just a meme market with a total volume of $37,302. That's pretty low. The Polish presidential election on Sunday has $89 million in it. Low liquidity markets are also more vulnerable to pump-and-dump manipulation where a small group can buy up the low amount of shares, bid the price up, and then sell out as the price crashes back down.

>>2290806
This is an interesting one. The catch is that it resolves on June 30. So it's more "will Trump ban China from buying US farmland before the end of June." But, like, Trump signing an EO banning Chinese state-owned enterprises from buying U.S. farmland counts. There's not a ton of liquidity either. Might bet 50 cents on it or something like that.

nice thread. I look forward to posting here when I get back on the crack. does this shit work with monero?

>>2291354
its built on the ethereum network

>>2290804
Ohh bless you based OP nuykuh. I wanted to make a thread like this but never did. Dunno if its up still but that 1 on will Isreali cabinet members resigned seems like free money.

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>>2291395
post investments, do a yolo

>OP vid 3
i hate this.

>stonks

I get one of the best stocks in the country discounted through work. It's nearly doubled in value since I started working there, my dumb ass didn't buy more earlier.
inb4 enron - imagine if it was microsoft instead, who are literally national infrastructure and can't fall much without the government stepping in

>>2291413
Im Burger :( I have to use Kalshi and only lost money betting on Kamala. Also too poor to gamble at the moment

>>2291189
Who judges the outcome? Is it the platform staff, or someone else?

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>>2291428
this guy


>>2291435
It's a general concept theorized at least before 1994, not that specific website (which I believe is ded).
I can't see anything in the Polymarket ToS prohibiting it, but I'm guessing they would remove "Elon Musk is assassinated by a citizen before August 31."

>>2291428
The answer is apparently: No single party controls the outcome. Market creators set the rules of the resolution when they create the market. Once the event occurs, anyone can propose an outcome (yes/no), which is assumed correct for a few hours unless someone disputes it, and if someone disputes it, it goes to a vote by "UMA token holders" who get rewards if they vote truthfully, and get their tokens taken away if they don't (and it's always more profitable to vote truthfully). And it gets more expensive to lie the bigger the market.

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>>2290838
Bullish case for Zohran here

Got nervous last night and sold my Trzaskowski shares

>>2291548
nothingburger until he gets comfortably ahead of cuomo because 1. the polls don't account for gerrymandering and 2. pinks are flimsy

this seems cynical.
Betting on the future we want would generate an incentive for capitalists to not make those things happen, as they currently have the institutional power to change the things we bet on and literally their purpose is to steal wealth from us. Betting on a future we dont want generates an incentive for you to join forces with capitalist interests.
Also wouldnt it result in the proles being more likely to lose money in general? Because education is currently pay-walled (or at least time-and-effort-walled), the bourgeois would appear to have an advantage over the overworked, less-wealthy proles.

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>>2293015
>implying war outcomes depend on autists betting
>implying China bad
>other falsehoods

>>2291548
Stop fudding, AOC endorsement will come through.

ZOHRAN JUST SECURED THE UAW ENDORSEMENT, GO LONG NOW

>>2291395
This thread is gonna be deader than a dead horse

>>2294000
I'm giving it a week.

>>2293992
how did i imply those things? genuinely. I'm pretty sure i don't believe those things

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>>2294143
AOC endorsed Zohran

>>2298657
if he gets ahead of cuomo the other primary candidates will drop out and endorse cuomo

>>2298717
I took profit. People are really just speculating on a short-term rise in price from the AOC endorsement and it might go back down. It might take another poll showing to really move the market that puts it near 50/50. I'm going to wait and see what happens now.

>Will Trump recognize Somaliland in 2025?
Thoughts on this one

>gambling for chuds
no thanks. i'd rather waste my money on something actually fun like poker

>>2294819
Ya, only cause us Burgerstanis cant use polymarket. Oh say can you see…

>>2306721
It went up to 22% for some reason. Seems high but these "in 2025" markets still have six months to go so it's not a great return on NO. There are Somaliland politicians talking about getting recognized and say they're talking to Trump's people, but add on that it might happen before he leaves office, so I'm guessing it's probably a NO.

don't waste all your money on cryptogambling retard

Zohran got this in the bag. Keep. Holding. He is going to win.

>>2308538
1) he has to beat cuomo twice in a row
2) they're going to revoke his citizenship and deport him

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Starmer less likely than Xi is insanity

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>>2309575
>This isn't gambling, its investments for people who think they're experts on geopolitics
NTA, but ofc it is. It's a sportsbook and of the 2 poker is much less of a gamble.

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This is an interesting one. They don't know how to price this market becaue they don't know anything about the Seychelles. Neither do I but Marco Francis looks way overpriced (appears to be some random grifter with a Facebook page) and could be a good NO buy. Ramkalawan is the current president.

Herminie is the candidate of the main opposition party, which appears to be some corrupted / neoliberalized version of the old socialist party. Seychelles has a fascinating and curious history as an Indian Ocean archipelago nation that had a socialist president, France-Albert René, who was also born to a French plantation manager. The son of the settler-colonialists going on to become a socialist head of state for 30 years and being quite popular and effective from what I've read.

Betting on a market in polymarket that has margins of 1% or less is bound to fail BTW. UMA whales are usually the top whales in any given market. If you are betting on a market with less than 3% odds you are going to lose your money.

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Think this one is another NO

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Not a great return over time but absolutely hell NO

Love the volatility of the chinese stock market, they're selling dollars for cents over there if you're lucky. And if you aren't then the loss is manageable

>if I use the porky flag ironically I can turn this site into /biz/
fuck off

>>2311567
there is nothing wrong with a /leftybiz/ thread stop killing fun you humorless joyless depressed misanthropic boring lame useless shitposter

>>2311243
I think he'll run for president.

>>2311567
What irony? This is the left wing of capital.

>>2291095
>>2310932
Huh, so basically to make money you bet against retarded rightist cryptotwats with to much money wishcrafting their uneducated political fantasies onto a betting market?
Am i misunderstanding? because it seems to easy?
In practical terms how much money do i make in Dec if i bet 100USD that cunt Fetterman still has a jobby the end of the year?

>>2312361
Around $20-$25. I know, it's not a lot, but it beats the S&P 500.

My current return is 10x over a few months. But it's slowed down a lot in the past month so idk.

Zohran 👀

>>2311582
sometimes on pol i see fettermans name bandied about as a possible dark horse candidate, but his recent mental problems makes me think he wont


ZOHRAN IN THE LEAD

let's go

https://youtu.be/e92akCNjU4s

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look out for insiders. a few hours before the israel attack a new account popped up and started dumping money on it

>>2318310
Israelis with inside military knowledge have done that several times. Really playing to stereotype there guys!

>>2290804
I don't wanna lose my gains bro.

What should I buy or sell now?

so how does this work, make an account and then upload crypto or can I gamble with fiat currency too?

Did anyone make any money from the war? vaguely thought about it but am to lazy.

>>2326575
It's crypto and you need to transfer it to your Polymarket account via the Polygon network. (If anyone does this, I'd test it with a small amount first because you have to make sure to input the code right. I don't normally play around with crypto.)

>>2326577
I haven't but there's a "will the U.S. strike Iran by July" market that's currently at 30%. Now I'm seeing rumors of lots of U.S. refueling tankers flying east.

>>2329347
>I haven't but there's a "will the U.S. strike Iran by July" market that's currently at 30%
Bet some savings on it, Netanyahu is pressuring Trump, Israel can't fight a war on its own, balls to the wall this is happening ASAP.

>>2329347
>>2329369
>will the U.S. strike Iran by July
It's crazy undervalued, certain Iranian nuclear facilities are still intact because Israel lacks the specific bombs to blow them which the US has. There's only 2 weeks left though, it's not a question of if but when

>>2307853
That's what I thought, US is not on the best of terms with Ethiopia and recognizing Somaliland would be giving them potential sea access, but at the same time if the somalilanders (however tf you say it) let the US or israel build a base and shit or even displace palestianians there which there have been some rumors about it's worth keeping an eye on

>>2309505
Basically betting that Xi doesn't die this year. Free money, right? Or am I missing something.

>>2330302
>>2329369
Bought in and sold during a pump, and bought some NO on the way down, and sold that. But I'm currently out. Trump is holding fire at the moment but it might change at any moment.

I'm pissed the Zohran market dumped because of the Fucking New York Times.

>USE OF THE SITE, PLATFORM OR TECHNOLOGY FEATURES FOR TRADING IS NOT PERMITTED BY PERSONS OR ENTITIES WHO RESIDE IN, ARE LOCATED IN, ARE INCORPORATED IN, HAVE A REGISTERED OFFICE IN, OR HAVE THEIR PRINCIPAL PLACE OF BUSINESS IN THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, UNITED KINGDOM, FRANCE, ONTARIO, SINGAPORE, POLAND, THAILAND, BELGIUM, TAIWAN

why?

>>2339615
Polymarket is communist, see how it is banned from NATO countries and US puppets

zohran bros…

>>2339838
We're so back.

How much did you guys make off of the mericans bombing Iran? And what amount of investment?
Was going to put some money in but decided i'd use this as a test to see, for next time.
>>2339615
Gambling legislaiton.

>>2349196
About three fiddy.

So there was an Emerson poll that shows Zohran ahead and the market flipped. An interesting thing to watch in real time as it overcorrected to 63c for Zohran and is now settling around 50/50. Timed it right and sold at the top and then bought (with some chump change as an experiment) Cuomo yes in the 30s and sold that in the 40s as it went up a few cents. Then Cuomo went back down, bought at 41c and he went back up and sold him again.

It's like a rapidly oscillating wave resulting from the market suddenly destabilizing before returning to a "fair" price. If you get in the groove you can play both sides of the wave, but this was the only time I've really done this kind of buying / selling on both sides during an extreme correction successfully. I think it was because I was already in and watching the initial pump as it happened and got into this "groove." Also played around with limit orders more than I usually do.

What can really screw people over is trying to play these oscillating waves and they get on the wrong side of it. It's like a doom loop. I think this is more likely if someone bought high and there's a dump, and they panic and try to play the wave to claw back their losses while making them worse. So, buying Cuomo at a high price, the price dumps, and then they buy Zohran at 60c who then goes down to 53c.

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Here's the wave on the NYC market.

I mentioned the order book and the spread before but I tend to watch that more than when I started. The spread is an interesting thing. What is the spread? That is the gap between the lowest ask (orders to sell) and highest bid (orders to buy). In this case, if I want to buy some Zohran, I can buy him at 53c because there are enough traders with open orders to sell at that price, but if I own any, I can only sell him to somebody else for 52.2c. If I buy in at this price and then immediately sell it, it'd be at a small loss, so obviously I'd have to wait for price to rise enough for the lowest ask to exceed 53c, the price I bought in, if I want to sell at a profit.

There's some short-term risk here, since I could buy in and the price drop a cent or two. Or drop by a lot more. Or it could go up.

When a market is stable, the spread is usually around 1c. Could be more in a low liquidity market. There are markets that don't expire until the end of 2025 that seem likely to resolve yes/no but there's a 3c spread (say) and you could be stuck in it for a month because there's nobody to sell your shares to profitably.

When there's more liquidity, the spread is narrower. However, a sudden destabilizing event (like the Emerson poll) can cause an extreme gap in the spread to open up. When Cuomo was crashing and Zohran was rising, there could be as much as 10c spread or MORE … because the Cuomo holders were panic dumping? I'm not sure, but however it happens, this meant Zohran shares were now going at 63c but the lowest bid was at 50c during a short window. You don't want to sell when there's such big gap in the spread. But eventually the bids might rise to, say, 62.5c, and you can sell at a higher profit. In a short period of time, the spread narrows back to a cent or some fraction of a cent, and during an overcorrection that is a time to "sell" (because the rest of the pumpers will soon begin selling) and the the price will fall, and now there are Zohran buyers who were late and bought in above 60c as the price settles back to an equilibrium.

It's very easy to be late to a pump and end up having to hold a bag as the saying goes. And like I said this can happen in a short period of time. The Zohran pump reached its peak in 20 minutes, stayed above 60c for 40 minutes until the selloff began, which is not a lot of time.

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Some markets are a fucking scam. There has been no cyberattack that meets the criteria but it's about to resolve to yes because the whales said so.

There's a chance it resolves to no though so putting some small amount on 1% No could yield you some results

>>2352274
The result is revealed in 14h. The votes are being revealed throughout the day though and yes is for the moment winning

A wild card in this NY Dem primary is that it might take two weeks for the final result because of the way the next 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th choice "rounds" are calculated. It's possible Cuomo has the most votes tonight but loses in the end. I'm currently staying out of it but think Zohran wins though.

>>2352274
A lot of "Trump announces…" markets too. Like "Trump announces an end to U.S. military operations in Iran" with very specific rules that say Trump must explicitly say something.

ZOHMENTUM IS WINNING. KEEP. HOLDING

>>2352274
How does one define 'major'? There have been attacks against the ISPs, the media, etc.

>>2352918
That's the rub of it, that's a very subjective term. Wonder if this theory has any merit to it.

>>2352917
So far so good!

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NO

>>2354864
There were people voting yes on this? Fuck sake i could have made real money from these idiotas?

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Been playing with "will Iran fall in 2025" (big fat no) type markets because they've been relatively underpriced and riding them up a few cents.

This seems like no. Might take awhile to drop though, but national figures like an ex-VP rarely endorse for municipal elections. Bernie did it with Mamdani but that was rare even for him and he has a personal connection to New York in addition to the ideological angle. Clinton endorsed Cuomo, but Cuomo actually worked for Clinton in the 90s.

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Now that Mamdani won the primary and Trump bombed Iran, there's nothing to bet on.

>>2312212
tRUTH Porkbro

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This is a scam, even if they are "made public" they could be partial and the whole thing is off


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