Why don't you put your money where your mouth is?Autists of all lands unite, you have nothing to lose but your gain$The first general entirely dedicated to betting on political happenings (or lack thereof). For those too afraid to do dangerous adventurism, there is always venture capital. Chinese stocks, Russian stocks any & all that coincide with your political LARP are welcome here, post your most daring bets and show your autistic bravery here!
Think of this as wallstreetbets for the left wing of capital. Or just regular wallstreetbets on leftypol if you believe they're the successors to occupy wall street.
Poverty is not socialism. To be rich is glorious. -Deng XiaopingBasic links:
https://polymarket.com/https://polymarketanalytics.com/https://www.aljazeera.com/https://www.bloomberg.com/https://tradingeconomics.com/china/stock-markethttps://robinhood.com/us/en/ >>2290828up 102% in 1 year 563% in 5 years
Tesla doom is trve
>>2290804You can even bet "will Russian take X city by [date]" on Polymarket but I stay away from those because idk
I'm playing with these right now. There was a poll the other day showing Zohran catching up to Cuomo, and the Working Families Party endorsed him last night. Which makes me think an AOC endorsement is coming up. Maybe in a week. I doubt Zohran wins but he seems underpriced and might pop if AOC comes out for him, and I think she will. So there's one market that should resolve to yes, and another market where Zohran should rise some more.
That's my theory anyways.
Most of my winnings have been on the Canadian elections and India/Pakistan. I got in on Carney early, and bet on India striking Pakistan. Then there was another market on whether India would *invade* Pakisan and then bet no on that, and made a little more as the price on yes dropped as the conflict quieted down.
I don't like to bet on election night swings. A lot of people do this but I don't think it's worth the squeeze and you can quickly lose your ass doing that. Also never assume a candidate who is priced at 90c is going to win or won't take a plunge as a race tightens, so I don't like to just dump money on candidates at 90c on an assumption they'll win.
>>2290828I had some Grindr stock that was doing well but I sold it.
>>2290842I'm already in.
I think the "trick" with this is identifying mismatches between trends and pricing. Polymarket traders also skew way to the right and their biases influence their decisions. They're not always wrong though. They just get emotionally invested. Also, unlike the stock market, irrational behavior on betting markets doesn't help political candidates stay solvent like they can companies, and the inevitable corrections also come much faster because they're tied to yes/no events.
On Canada, I think think a lot of "dumb" money went in on PP because he looked like a shoe-in at 90c earlier this year. It did look ike he was going to win in a landslide, but they didn't anticipate the beyond furious reaction to the tariffs, and didn't understand certain things about Canadian political culture or Carney's appeal. Once PP started diving, there was a lot of traders who were like "the CCP is rigging the market" (lol) as if the market was going to help Carney win. I wasn't playing around with this last year, but there were liberals who said that about a French whale who went all in on Trump, and he was correct, but the liberals thought the whale was skewing the market to create momentum to help Trump win the election. But I doubt that has any effect.
I do sell at a loss sometimes if I get spooked. But I'll take a loss if I'm up several times that somewhere else. Also didn't put any of my "own" money in initially, but some crypto I accumulated for using Brave and didn't know what to do with. My first real bet was on Biden pardoning Liz Cheney which was a YOLO move, and won that, which got the ball rolling.
>>2290851Can someone explain how this shit works?
I never gambled in my life except i bought a scratchcard once 20 years ago.
>>2290962Think sports betting but for politics and other things. It's a "predictions market" (which is essentially gambling) in which "traders" (betters) place yes/no bets on future events by buying "shares" of "yes" or "no" which are priced somewhere between 0 cents and 100 cents before the resolution. When events resolve "yes" then each share resolves to 100 cents, and no shares resolve to zero cents, or vice versa if the event did not happen (each "no" share goes to 100c and each "yes" share goes to zero).
For example, a market can be: who will win the U.S. presidential election? There are actually four options. You can buy Trump yes, or Trump no. Or Kamala yes, or Kamala no. If you buy 50 shares of "Trump yes" priced at 50c/share, then your $25 turns into $50 if he wins. You double your money. If he loses, you lose the $25.
And it works like a market so people can bid up or crash the price. What this means practically is people betting on events they think will either resolve "yes" or "no," or they play short-term fluctuations in the price, like they just expect the price to go up, and then they sell, rather than waiting for the resolution. An event that ultimately resolves "yes" can often go down in price because the betters get it wrong, which is very profitable for those who get it right.
The devil is also in the details. Like the "spread" (wider in low liquidity markets), or the details on the event itself. Like "will Zelensky wear a suit before June" is disputed because what a suit actually is was left kind of vague in the rules. There are some vague, shady "markets" like that.
And it's crypto-based. And you might have to use a VPN to use it because some countries don't allow it. And it's backed by Peter Thiel.
More details. Here are the rules and the order book for the "nothing ever happens" market. (Which resolves "yes" – that nothing ever happens – if none of these five events happen. If one of these events happen, the market resolves to "no" because something happened). In the order book, there's a listing of yes/no shares available to buy, the price per share, and the total $ amount of shares available at each price.
So if I want to buy "yes" (that nothing ever happens), there's 268.33 shares available at 49c/share, for a total of $131.48 worth of shares going at that share price. If those shares are bought up, the price for "yes" will then increase to 51c/share.
This is just a meme market with a total volume of $37,302. That's pretty low. The Polish presidential election on Sunday has $89 million in it. Low liquidity markets are also more vulnerable to pump-and-dump manipulation where a small group can buy up the low amount of shares, bid the price up, and then sell out as the price crashes back down.
>>2290806This is an interesting one. The catch is that it resolves on June 30. So it's more "will Trump ban China from buying US farmland before the end of June." But, like, Trump signing an EO banning Chinese state-owned enterprises from buying U.S. farmland counts. There's not a ton of liquidity either. Might bet 50 cents on it or something like that.
>>23085381) he has to beat cuomo twice in a row
2) they're going to revoke his citizenship and deport him
>>2291095>>2310932Huh, so basically to make money you bet against retarded rightist cryptotwats with to much money wishcrafting their uneducated political fantasies onto a betting market?
Am i misunderstanding? because it seems to easy?
In practical terms how much money do i make in Dec if i bet 100USD that cunt Fetterman still has a jobby the end of the year?
>>2312361Around $20-$25. I know, it's not a lot, but it beats the S&P 500.
My current return is 10x over a few months. But it's slowed down a lot in the past month so idk.
>>2326575It's crypto and you need to transfer it to your Polymarket account via the Polygon network. (If anyone does this, I'd test it with a small amount first because you have to make sure to input the code right. I don't normally play around with crypto.)
>>2326577I haven't but there's a "will the U.S. strike Iran by July" market that's currently at 30%. Now I'm seeing rumors of lots of U.S. refueling tankers flying east.
>>2330302>>2329369Bought in and sold during a pump, and bought some NO on the way down, and sold that. But I'm currently out. Trump is holding fire at the moment but it might change at any moment.
I'm pissed the Zohran market dumped because of the Fucking New York Times.
>USE OF THE SITE, PLATFORM OR TECHNOLOGY FEATURES FOR TRADING IS NOT PERMITTED BY PERSONS OR ENTITIES WHO RESIDE IN, ARE LOCATED IN, ARE INCORPORATED IN, HAVE A REGISTERED OFFICE IN, OR HAVE THEIR PRINCIPAL PLACE OF BUSINESS IN THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, UNITED KINGDOM, FRANCE, ONTARIO, SINGAPORE, POLAND, THAILAND, BELGIUM, TAIWAN
why?
How much did you guys make off of the mericans bombing Iran? And what amount of investment?
Was going to put some money in but decided i'd use this as a test to see, for next time.
>>2339615Gambling legislaiton.
>>2349196About three fiddy.
So there was an Emerson poll that shows Zohran ahead and the market flipped. An interesting thing to watch in real time as it overcorrected to 63c for Zohran and is now settling around 50/50. Timed it right and sold at the top and then bought (with some chump change as an experiment) Cuomo yes in the 30s and sold that in the 40s as it went up a few cents. Then Cuomo went back down, bought at 41c and he went back up and sold him again.
It's like a rapidly oscillating wave resulting from the market suddenly destabilizing before returning to a "fair" price. If you get in the groove you can play both sides of the wave, but this was the only time I've really done this kind of buying / selling on both sides during an extreme correction successfully. I think it was because I was already in and watching the initial pump as it happened and got into this "groove." Also played around with limit orders more than I usually do.
What can really screw people over is trying to play these oscillating waves and they get on the wrong side of it. It's like a doom loop. I think this is more likely if someone bought high and there's a dump, and they panic and try to play the wave to claw back their losses while making them worse. So, buying Cuomo at a high price, the price dumps, and then they buy Zohran at 60c who then goes down to 53c.
Here's the wave on the NYC market.
I mentioned the order book and the spread before but I tend to watch that more than when I started. The spread is an interesting thing. What is the spread? That is the gap between the lowest ask (orders to sell) and highest bid (orders to buy). In this case, if I want to buy some Zohran, I can buy him at 53c because there are enough traders with open orders to sell at that price, but if I own any, I can only sell him to somebody else for 52.2c. If I buy in at this price and then immediately sell it, it'd be at a small loss, so obviously I'd have to wait for price to rise enough for the lowest ask to exceed 53c, the price I bought in, if I want to sell at a profit.
There's some short-term risk here, since I could buy in and the price drop a cent or two. Or drop by a lot more. Or it could go up.
When a market is stable, the spread is usually around 1c. Could be more in a low liquidity market. There are markets that don't expire until the end of 2025 that seem likely to resolve yes/no but there's a 3c spread (say) and you could be stuck in it for a month because there's nobody to sell your shares to profitably.
When there's more liquidity, the spread is narrower. However, a sudden destabilizing event (like the Emerson poll) can cause an extreme gap in the spread to open up. When Cuomo was crashing and Zohran was rising, there could be as much as 10c spread or MORE … because the Cuomo holders were panic dumping? I'm not sure, but however it happens, this meant Zohran shares were now going at 63c but the lowest bid was at 50c during a short window. You don't want to sell when there's such big gap in the spread. But eventually the bids might rise to, say, 62.5c, and you can sell at a higher profit. In a short period of time, the spread narrows back to a cent or some fraction of a cent, and during an overcorrection that is a time to "sell" (because the rest of the pumpers will soon begin selling) and the the price will fall, and now there are Zohran buyers who were late and bought in above 60c as the price settles back to an equilibrium.
It's very easy to be late to a pump and end up having to hold a bag as the saying goes. And like I said this can happen in a short period of time. The Zohran pump reached its peak in 20 minutes, stayed above 60c for 40 minutes until the selloff began, which is not a lot of time.
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