Why don't you put your money where your mouth is?Autists of all lands unite, you have nothing to lose but your gain$The first general entirely dedicated to betting on political happenings (or lack thereof). For those too afraid to do dangerous adventurism, there is always venture capital. Chinese stocks, Russian stocks any & all that coincide with your political LARP are welcome here, post your most daring bets and show your autistic bravery here!
Think of this as wallstreetbets for the left wing of capital. Or just regular wallstreetbets on leftypol if you believe they're the successors to occupy wall street.
Poverty is not socialism. To be rich is glorious. -Deng XiaopingBasic links:
https://polymarket.com/https://polymarketanalytics.com/https://www.aljazeera.com/https://www.bloomberg.com/https://tradingeconomics.com/china/stock-markethttps://robinhood.com/us/en/ >>2290828up 102% in 1 year 563% in 5 years
Tesla doom is trve
>>2290804You can even bet "will Russian take X city by [date]" on Polymarket but I stay away from those because idk
I'm playing with these right now. There was a poll the other day showing Zohran catching up to Cuomo, and the Working Families Party endorsed him last night. Which makes me think an AOC endorsement is coming up. Maybe in a week. I doubt Zohran wins but he seems underpriced and might pop if AOC comes out for him, and I think she will. So there's one market that should resolve to yes, and another market where Zohran should rise some more.
That's my theory anyways.
Most of my winnings have been on the Canadian elections and India/Pakistan. I got in on Carney early, and bet on India striking Pakistan. Then there was another market on whether India would *invade* Pakisan and then bet no on that, and made a little more as the price on yes dropped as the conflict quieted down.
I don't like to bet on election night swings. A lot of people do this but I don't think it's worth the squeeze and you can quickly lose your ass doing that. Also never assume a candidate who is priced at 90c is going to win or won't take a plunge as a race tightens, so I don't like to just dump money on candidates at 90c on an assumption they'll win.
>>2290828I had some Grindr stock that was doing well but I sold it.
>>2290842I'm already in.
I think the "trick" with this is identifying mismatches between trends and pricing. Polymarket traders also skew way to the right and their biases influence their decisions. They're not always wrong though. They just get emotionally invested. Also, unlike the stock market, irrational behavior on betting markets doesn't help political candidates stay solvent like they can companies, and the inevitable corrections also come much faster because they're tied to yes/no events.
On Canada, I think think a lot of "dumb" money went in on PP because he looked like a shoe-in at 90c earlier this year. It did look ike he was going to win in a landslide, but they didn't anticipate the beyond furious reaction to the tariffs, and didn't understand certain things about Canadian political culture or Carney's appeal. Once PP started diving, there was a lot of traders who were like "the CCP is rigging the market" (lol) as if the market was going to help Carney win. I wasn't playing around with this last year, but there were liberals who said that about a French whale who went all in on Trump, and he was correct, but the liberals thought the whale was skewing the market to create momentum to help Trump win the election. But I doubt that has any effect.
I do sell at a loss sometimes if I get spooked. But I'll take a loss if I'm up several times that somewhere else. Also didn't put any of my "own" money in initially, but some crypto I accumulated for using Brave and didn't know what to do with. My first real bet was on Biden pardoning Liz Cheney which was a YOLO move, and won that, which got the ball rolling.
>>2290851Can someone explain how this shit works?
I never gambled in my life except i bought a scratchcard once 20 years ago.
>>2290962Think sports betting but for politics and other things. It's a "predictions market" (which is essentially gambling) in which "traders" (betters) place yes/no bets on future events by buying "shares" of "yes" or "no" which are priced somewhere between 0 cents and 100 cents before the resolution. When events resolve "yes" then each share resolves to 100 cents, and no shares resolve to zero cents, or vice versa if the event did not happen (each "no" share goes to 100c and each "yes" share goes to zero).
For example, a market can be: who will win the U.S. presidential election? There are actually four options. You can buy Trump yes, or Trump no. Or Kamala yes, or Kamala no. If you buy 50 shares of "Trump yes" priced at 50c/share, then your $25 turns into $50 if he wins. You double your money. If he loses, you lose the $25.
And it works like a market so people can bid up or crash the price. What this means practically is people betting on events they think will either resolve "yes" or "no," or they play short-term fluctuations in the price, like they just expect the price to go up, and then they sell, rather than waiting for the resolution. An event that ultimately resolves "yes" can often go down in price because the betters get it wrong, which is very profitable for those who get it right.
The devil is also in the details. Like the "spread" (wider in low liquidity markets), or the details on the event itself. Like "will Zelensky wear a suit before June" is disputed because what a suit actually is was left kind of vague in the rules. There are some vague, shady "markets" like that.
And it's crypto-based. And you might have to use a VPN to use it because some countries don't allow it. And it's backed by Peter Thiel.
More details. Here are the rules and the order book for the "nothing ever happens" market. (Which resolves "yes" – that nothing ever happens – if none of these five events happen. If one of these events happen, the market resolves to "no" because something happened). In the order book, there's a listing of yes/no shares available to buy, the price per share, and the total $ amount of shares available at each price.
So if I want to buy "yes" (that nothing ever happens), there's 268.33 shares available at 49c/share, for a total of $131.48 worth of shares going at that share price. If those shares are bought up, the price for "yes" will then increase to 51c/share.
This is just a meme market with a total volume of $37,302. That's pretty low. The Polish presidential election on Sunday has $89 million in it. Low liquidity markets are also more vulnerable to pump-and-dump manipulation where a small group can buy up the low amount of shares, bid the price up, and then sell out as the price crashes back down.
>>2290806This is an interesting one. The catch is that it resolves on June 30. So it's more "will Trump ban China from buying US farmland before the end of June." But, like, Trump signing an EO banning Chinese state-owned enterprises from buying U.S. farmland counts. There's not a ton of liquidity either. Might bet 50 cents on it or something like that.
>>23085381) he has to beat cuomo twice in a row
2) they're going to revoke his citizenship and deport him
>>2291095>>2310932Huh, so basically to make money you bet against retarded rightist cryptotwats with to much money wishcrafting their uneducated political fantasies onto a betting market?
Am i misunderstanding? because it seems to easy?
In practical terms how much money do i make in Dec if i bet 100USD that cunt Fetterman still has a jobby the end of the year?
>>2312361Around $20-$25. I know, it's not a lot, but it beats the S&P 500.
My current return is 10x over a few months. But it's slowed down a lot in the past month so idk.
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