Suppose Karl Marx had never been born. How would the modern world be different?
My best guess is highly optimistic. Without Marx, there would have been no prominent intellectual promoter of violent revolution for socialist dictatorship. There would still have been a big socialist movement, including many socialists dreaming of bloodbaths and tyranny. But the movement as a whole would have rapidly evolved into something like social democracy. Third World dictators would still have killed in the name of socialism. But there would have been no Soviet Union without Marx. And without the Soviet Union, there would be no fascist Italy and no Nazi Germany. A socialist dictatorship could still have come to China. But without the ghoulish example of Soviet agriculture, even a socialist China would have avoided major peacetime famine.
It’s clearly possible that an alternate, equally influential theoretician of violent revolution for socialist dictatorship would have arisen. But this seems unlikely. When historians of science try to weigh a scientist’s influence, they search for runner-ups – rival scientists waiting in the wings to make the same discovery. Challenge: If Marx had never lived, who exactly would have replaced him? In Germany, Marx’s top rival was Ferdinand Lassalle, a figure far more in tune with modern social democracy than Marx. On the global socialist scene, it’s hard to name any figure that compares with Marx. Who’s even in the running?
There’s really only one fact that tempers my optimism: The world with Marx has never had a nuclear war. Altering any major facet of history could plausibly reverse that happy outcome.
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