Is it almost pretty much a guarantee at this point? Soon?
The longer the bourgeoisie states exist and hold nukes the greater the threat becomes, in the statistical paradoxes of infinity in all probabilities they will one day have to be used, since a dictatorship of the bourgeoisie can only be finite.
80,000 Hours researchers estimate the chance of nuclear war over the next century is 20–50%
https://80000hours.org/problem-profiles/nuclear-security/