Suspicion is growing among Brazilian intelligence agents that the Bolsonaro supporters' actions are not being organized by organic movements within the country, but rather by a meticulously rehearsed script by the White House, with the participation of the CIA.
In recent days, Eduardo Bolsonaro's aggressiveness against the Federal Police, against Supreme Court justices, his attitude of defying even the rules of his mandate, and his increasingly radical rhetoric have raised alarm bells.
The first of these is due to the certainty of being able to speak and misinform, without any fear of facing justice.
The second suspicion concerns the aggressiveness of Donald Trump's own actions. He reserved the highest tariffs and harshest rhetoric for Brazil, and closed the door to any dialogue with the Lula administration.
"This is a typical script drawn up by the CIA, feeding national actors to justify a foreign strategic interest," said an Abin agent abroad.
In 2022, in the midst of Jair Bolsonaro's preparations for a coup, Joe Biden's then-CIA chief traveled to Brazil to deliver a message to the Brazilian military: an adventure against the country's democracy would not have American backing.
Today, the suspicion is that the new Trump administration has a different stance. Indeed, the White House's efforts are to assert that actions are being taken to "defend" Brazilians, not against them. The Bolsonaro clan is the straw man. The sanctions would be implemented, officially, not to serve US strategic interests, but supposedly to enforce "freedom in Brazil."
The script has all the necessary ingredients to construct a rhetoric suitable for action. There is a group of supposed "exiles"—such as Eduardo Bolsonaro, Allan dos Santos, and Paulo Figueiredo—there is a "wronged" individual who is "loved by the people"—former President Jair Bolsonaro—and there is a supposedly dictatorial regime, represented by Alexandre de Moraes and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.
"The key word is destabilization," said a seasoned national intelligence agent. Weakening a government in a divided country and thus paving the way for the US to have a powerful ally in the emerging world by 2026.
There was no shortage of warnings about the risk Brazil faced. In August 2024, before the elections, a delegation sent by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs mapped out who would be the influential players in a future Trump administration and suggested opening channels of dialogue with them. The strategy was to build bridges so that, in the event of a crisis, mediation could take place.
Abin suggested creating a psychological and behavioral profile of Trump to identify vulnerabilities in his character and interests that could be exploited.
For everyone, this effort should have occurred before Bolsonarism created its own access points to the Oval Office. Some of these reports and suggestions, however, remained in drawers at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Planalto Palace, never implemented.
Among diplomats, there is also a perception that the attacks and measures adopted in recent days are just the beginning of a long period of political instability.
In government, everyone awaits further action from the White House, both individually and against the country. With misinformation, control over social media, and real economic damage, a scenario is gradually unfolding in which a democratically elected government takes on the appearance of "illegitimacy."
"All that's missing is a Brazilian Juan Guaidó to solidify the existence of a coup attempt," said an experienced diplomat, referring to the Venezuelan opposition leader.
There is no shortage of candidates for the position.