François Bayrou's government is probably going to fall this evening.
Essentially, after Macron chose to start early legislatives elections in 2024, the French national assembly has been divided in 3 main blocs, the NFP, a coalition of parties affiliated to the left, the Presidential camp, who allied themselves with the hard right republican party and the RN, the main far right party
with the NFP having come first in the elections, Macron was supposed to chose a prime minister of their desires, but he didn't do that, instead choosing Michel Barnier to lead a center-right government. Barnier's government became the shortest lived government of the 5th republic. Macron replaced him with Bayrou who started yet another centrist government. Essentially, Bayrou's government was riddled with scandals, the major one being his coverup of child rape in a private catholic school when he was minister of the education, but the main reason he's going down is his budget for 2026, where he intended to make major cuts in the economy, such as removing certain holidays like VE day, and other ultraliberal policies. He did chose to let the national assembly vote in their confidence in him, the left wing parties and the far right both agreed that they would vote against him, and even 2/3 of the republican party promised they'd vote against him. So it's extremely likely he gets fired this evening.
Now, once he gets fired Macron has 3 main options
-Continue as he has done previously, put another centrist guy in power, and hope he doesn't get fired again
-Find an agreement with the left or the far right, now, in the left, there is the PS who have often been favorable to Barnier and Bayrou, going against the grain of their allies in the NFP, a united coalition from PS to Republican doesn't have an absolute majority, but it's fairly close, such a government could be sustainable.
- He can dissolve again and hope for a solution there, but it's unlikely to yield any favorable results for him, as Bayrou is very unpopular, and he is less likely to benefit from leftists voting for him as the lesser evil.
>>2465989> he intended to make major cuts in the economy, such as removing certain holidays like VE day, and other ultraliberal policies. What did he think the response was going to be?
Honestly, our elites in europe feel like an alien species to me.
>>2466192Yea it really is down to what the fuck does Faure wants. At least with respect to PS. I doubt EELV/PCF/Apres wants an alliance with Macron as well. Political suicide.
Probably a confidence and supply agreement w/o LFI and Macronites? I doubt France has appetite for another election again.
>>2466205Allying with Macron is suicide for any party, they're all waiting for the 2027 election, but in the mean time the country is essentially blocked, I'm guessing a technocratic government is also a possibility, but even that seems complicated and it isn't planned in the French constitution.
I think this situation only ends whenever one of the parties gets an absolute or near absolute majority in the national assembly, and that probably is going to be the winner of the 2027 election, but it's perfectly possible it's still blocked afterwards
>>2465989Thats the actual results of the vote
GDR are the French communist party
LFI are a leftist party
Ecos are a green party
SOC is the PS
(Together they form the Nfp coalition)
Liot are centrists not linked to Macron
DEM, EPR and HOR are the macronists parties, supported him since 2017
DR are the republicans, who are allied with Macron, intrestingly enough some of them voted against him
UDR and RN are the far right parties
Madam President, Minister, colleagues. Today is historic. For the first time in the Fifth Republic, a government falls following a vote of confidence. But let there be no mistake. It is not only you but your policies and the world they defend that must be defeated. For, Mr. Prime Minister, you are merely the face of the reprieve that the president wished to grant to his policies, the last face of an illegitimate and obstinate policy. Unable to inspire even the slightest support in the country, you entangle yourself in a succession of false threats.
Two years ago, Mr. Atal threatened with either pension reform or bankruptcy. Last year, it was either saving the budget or the collapse of our health care. Now, it is austerity or supervision by the IMF. Mr. Prime Minister, you leave behind only the risk of a financial crisis, constantly brandished on every television in the country. For you, the future does not exist because you clearly belong to the past. Unpopular, in the minority, hated, the Macronist movement governs only through fear.
You were so confident. Never had a government gone to such lengths to force through its policies: 49.3 dozens of times in succession, constitutional maneuvers, brutal repression of social movements, trampling the opposition, dissolving parliament, denying the loss of government. So much effort to govern alone against everyone. And now you lament a deficit that you yourself created. Your pretentious act as a so-called prophet no longer amuses anyone. Our parliamentary group is proud never to have supported a single one of your budgets, which led us off a cliff. We do not share your diagnosis, much less your remedies. The reckless speculation of the “Mozart of finance” has cost us an additional one thousand billion euros of debt, at the same time as the needs in health, education, public services, and ecological investment have skyrocketed.
You have deprived the public sector of valuable revenue. You have impoverished the state and weakened public services. You lowered corporate taxes, gradually eliminated production taxes, abolished the wealth tax, plundered social security funding, and showered multinational companies with more than 200 billion euros of public aid every year with no conditions. The addicts to public spending have a name: the MEDEF(Employer's Association of French Industry), and you govern alongside them. For eight years, you have made financial capitalism the most pampered in the Republic. The 500 wealthiest people in this country thank you because they have doubled their fortunes in eight years, while you promise tears and sweat to everyone else. What indignity!
Historic rise in failures of small and medium-sized companies, factory closures, rising unemployment, ratification of a humiliating agreement with the United States, the fable of self-proclaimed reasonable managers has gone on long enough. And now you ask workers to work unpaid on public holidays, to remove two holidays to steal four billion euros from workers, the equivalent of the wealth tax you abolished. Stealing two years of life with retirement at 64 was not enough; you had to deprive those who had nothing of even the small comforts of life. You will go down in history as this old oligarchy that cannot bear that people enjoy the little pleasures of life: spending time for oneself, with loved ones, gardening, going to a restaurant or a weekend trip, admiring the sea or a starry sky.
Yes, today is a day of relief for millions of French citizens. Relief that you are leaving, Mr. Prime Minister, after your lies in the Betaram scandal that endangered generations of children. Relief that we no longer have as Minister of the Interior a man who speaks like a paper Pétain and screams nonsense. Relief that your cruel and unjust budget, which aimed to strip the French people, falls with you. You are not only an impostor but a danger to the country. The violence of your policies strikes from birth. More than 2,000 children are born, live, and die on the streets alongside 350,000 homeless, the likes of which have not been seen since the post-war period. Our infant mortality rate is among the highest in Europe. The disease of scurvy, believed eradicated a century ago, now affects young children. You have not spent a cent to protect children from sexual violence, even as three children per class on average are victims of incest. You have done nothing to de-commercialize early childhood care, and worse, your party collegues colluded with private daycare lobbies. Nothing has been done for thousands of children with disabilities deprived of schooling due to lack of support staff.
'Macronism' is a factory of child abuse, but according to you, these children only had themselves to blame, something Emmanuel Macron forgot to specify. With you, money flows only at birth to the well-born. You have turned France into an archaic caste society where inheritance concentrates 60% of national wealth. As in the 19th century, the top 10% control 80% of financial and professional assets. But how can we blame you? You are part of it. To enter these very short but highly selective governments, one must own at least three properties, preferably be a millionaire, as is the case for 22 of your ministers who generally inherited their wealth. The total wealth of the ministers in power is 104 million euros. The truth of your policy lies there. But you are not alone. The far right learns much from you. Le Pen repeatedly refused to vote for censure of your government and blocked the discussion to impeach Emmanuel Macron. Now, Le Pen aligns with the big bosses, promising her racist program will maintain Macron’s fundamentals.
Thus emerges the dividing line for the major decisions our country will face. The alternative we propose is clear: non-aligned diplomacy for peace, economic recovery through popular consumption, fiscal justice, new rights, investment in ecological transformation and adaptation, and a transition to the Sixth Republic to end the power of one person to the detriment of all.
Both Macronism and the far right, all agree on destroying social gains, climate-destructive policies, upholding the Fifth Republic status, total security policies, and an Islamophobic consensus. The alliance between Macronism and Le Pen against human social progress finds its synthesis in the Ministry of the Interior. In one year, Bruno Rotaillot has spent more time tweeting about each insubordinate deputy than reacting to the murder of Abou Bakar Sissé, Hem Mirai, or Jamel Ben Jabala by the far right, or responding to neo-Nazi marches, fascist attacks on deputies’ companions, the hunt for Black people in Creuse, or the 70 femicides committed during his term.
The ruin you have caused is not only economic but moral. Internationally, France’s voice no longer carries. French diplomacy has given way to French incantation. The abominable genocide perpetrated by the Israeli army in Gaza encounters no obstacle from France, which has just delivered tens of millions of euros of weapons to a state run by war criminals. Over 60,000 dead, a third of them children, 40,000 injured children, half permanently disabled, with still no punishment for their executioners.
Be humane if you want to be original. No one else is, said poet Max Jacob. Today, it is not only a government we must overthrow but a world founded on inhumanity, social brutality, and lack of solidarity. Your laughter when a woman with cancer criticizes the “lead law,” your arrogance, your Byzantine calculations to cling to power, French citizens have had enough.
Mr. Prime Minister, no one doubts that the president will produce a thousand avatars to succeed you: the Mrs. d’Armanin, le Cornu, and all those whose appetites sharpen as seats on the raft become available. Know this: you are the generic versions of a policy the French wish to break from. Generics are usually cheaper than the originals, and you are now worthless.
We solemnly warn: all who attempt to save your “Soldier Macron” will fall with him. The insubordinates will never sell out for ministerial positions. Your forced measures no longer work, reaching their peak in the colonies against our overseas compatriots. The masses have mobilized; nothing will stop them, not the GIGN or RAID deployed in Guadeloupe, not CRS8 in Martinique, nor the army in Kanaky-New Caledonia. Destroying the living conditions of those who suffer without resistance is over. You are right to be afraid. The disgust your policies have generated will converge on September 10th. This day is a tremendous encouragement to action. The movement has already won a victory even before starting: the fall of your government and the defeat of your budget.
Now, few options remain for the Élysée’s force. The president does not wish to change policies, so we will need to change the president. Whether he likes it or not, this fall, popular sovereignty is back in fashion, and “dégagisme” too. Leave today, Mr. Bairou. Emmanuel Macron is close behind. The people are impatient. They have an entire world to invent.
It's crazy because we finally reached the level of countries like Belgium, Italy or Germany where sometimes they don't have governments for months.
We had three different PMs and governments in the span of one year, and I expect Macron to nominate another centrist, probably a previous minister, which will fall again.
I think Macron doesn't give a fuck anymore, the parliament is more or less paralyzed since the dissolution (why did he even do that?)
He is the president so he is more in charge of international relations, he only has 1 year and a half left and I think he just want to vibe, for example recognizing Palestine…this month? Or will it be postponed again?
I think he is going to do the same thing as Obama and Sarkozy where they get invited at conferences to talk for the haute bourgeoisie in exchange of hefty sums. For this, it's better to stay president rather than resign now in order to get a better
carnet d'adresses.
I'm really fine if the political chambers of the country stay in limbo and no bombast neoliberal reforms get voted at the parliament until 2027. I have absolutely zero problem with that.
>>2466169Glucksmann is the nepobaby of a dumb Mao-to-Sarkozy pipeline journo from the 1970s.
He was pro Sarkozy in 2007 then advised the neoliberal president of Georgia Mikheil Saakashvili. He tried to get involved in Ukraine (his ex-wife was) in 2014, then came back to France, and since then, French media tries to meme him as le reasonable left centrist who hates LFI, but nobody cares except a few marginal
jeunes cadres dynamiques.
>>2467409>they don't have governments for monthsbut there is a goverment,it's in Bruxelles
>why did he even do thatto kill any censor motion against any future 49.3 by splitting all sides into "not a majority",and even if it did end up with a majority,he could have welcomed then in the governement and then force everything the european commission want like 67 retirement age etc and put it on them.
there was no losing play from it,and if what is currently happening happen,how well,it's not his fault if nothing gets done you know…he HAD to respect le democracy