Seriously speaking, how likely is it that a second Civil War breaks out in America?
It really feels like a good chunk of the population is desperate for it to happen. With the current economic downfall and division, do you think it can actually happen or is it just a burger LARP?
>>25038560.
98% of it is burgerLARP.
>>2503882Literally who?
>>2503877Spic Funforus is pacifist and coerces his tard fanboys to be non-violent as well.
The only people who will carry out targeted shootings in America are
A) Gang members
B) Schizos and the mentally ill
C) Scorned Husbands/Wives taking revenge on their lovers
Anything else is CIA/FBI. Like seriously has there been anyone over the past 30 years who did targeted killings who didn't fall neatly into any of those groups?
>>2503856I have a few thoughts on it. It's an interesting sci-fi scenario or a way for movie directors to take scenes from documentaries filmed in Iraq, Syria, etc. and set them in America to scare the shit out of people. But I think there are a few reasons why that's very unlikely.
Take shooters for example. They can be "political" or target "political" people, but often times the individuals involved have zero history of being involved in "politics" in any kind of organized way. Or maybe the person has some kind of grudge like the Shinzo Abe assassin in Japan. There's a lot of suffering and anomie and social atomization which I think is probably contributing to that (the assassin's mother had also been exploited by a cult that supported Abe), but it's a very fragmented sort of violence. It's not like my neighborhood is being attacked by organized guys from another neighborhood who show up in technicals with anti-aircraft guns mounted on them, but that happened recently in Suwayda in southern Syria.
Civil wars mobilize
communities. The leaders of militias in civil wars are community and political leaders who people trust enough to lead them. I look around where I live, most people don't know any of their neighbors. If they do, maybe it's at church (if they go, although that is declining) and they rarely do things like cook for them. Kind of a blessing in the form of a curse. We're too atomized to fight a civil war. The main exception I see in that regard are immigrants from India who actually walk around neighborhoods at night as a family.
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What if we thought about civil wars as part of the historical development of modern states. There are societies that are still going through this process, but it's less likely in many places because they already went through it in the 1800s or earlier (like the U.K.). Joshua Landis has described the roots of several conflicts in the world in countries as going back to collapsing empires at the end of World War I. (In the Middle East that is the Ottoman Empire.) I think in the U.S. it would take something extraordinary like being invaded by a foreign adversary that destroys the existing state (which the U.S. has done to several countries in the 21st century), but again, that's a sci-fi scenario.
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One of the upsides of Americans' noticeable lack of historical consciousness is the difficulty of mobilizing people based on age-old historical grievances. Right-wing nostalgia for the 1950s isn't even the same thing as wanting to re-run Pickett's Charge which some Southerners fantasized about in 1910, although the actual civil war that happened may have inoculated the society enough to block it from happening again.
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A sci-fi scenario that you might play with is the idea of new technological forms of violence (like drone warfare) that does collapse traditional boundaries which keep war "outside" of the territory of modern states, but that also goes on while the society continues to exist in a state of atomization and indifference. This would be a bit like Russia or some late 20th century cyberpunk novel in which there's a "war" but people don't even know that there is one, or why, or who it's with really; and while they're aware of sporadic drone attacks, but they're otherwise going about their lives without much concern for it, like it just becomes small talk, routine. They just see a bunch of burning cars occasionally or something. "The drone flew right at me! Man, I must be really brave, heh… anyways have you tried this new bourbon burger? *munch munch*" Like the notion that people are living through some kind of political or historical event is just completely lost on them.
How would the borders be drawn? The division isn't between north and south or east and west; it's between urban cities and outer rural areas, between rich and poor, between white and black, between white and latino, etc. It's got very little to do with geography this time, more to do with culture, ideology, class, etc.
I don't think we're headed for something like the Civil War, I think this is just rot. The whole thing is just falling apart, the experiment didn't work. I think what will happen is something more like the Great Depression, only worse. Imagine The Grapes Of Wrath in the modern era, millions of people out on the roads wandering from city to city looking for work, constant strikes and war between strikers and strikebreakers, cities under martial law, police and military and militias and deputized redneck goon squads clubbing and shooting the starving restless proles, shanty towns springing up outside cities and getting torched by the cops, chaos and war and famine and destruction, etc.
>>2503862>ou can tell because Kirk got shot and there were no revenge shootings from the Republicans. Then a MAGAtard shot up a place and there were no revenge shootings from the Democrats. Social media has totally pacified the country people will shout the worst things at each other online and then IRL will behave like normal to each other.>>2504038>yeah the internet is actually great for this because it allows the masses to vent in a digital space and sucks all the energy of the masses, both revolutionary and reactionary, out of real life. It's a void to scream into, but also a place to manufacture consent and despair.An interesting thing about the Kirk shooting is to think about the animal-brained reaction that people had to this. It turns out that this guy was a bipedal mammal that was easy to kill. One minute he's there, the next minute he's gone. This scares the shit out of people, and it's why public executions used to happen (as a way to terrorize the population to not do what the poor bastard who is getting his head chopped off with a guillotine did). It's like CHOP or BANG (and you fire a gun) and people are like AYEEEEEE.
This kind of incident gets that animal instinct activated in people's brains. People are immediately plunged into confusion and chaos, and then the reaction is to either run, or go attack something just like cats suddenly panicking. But while there was a lot rhetoric online about attacking the left in retaliation, there's a trillion people saying all kinds of things (or that it was Israel or whatever) that it creates a lot of confusion. Do you stay or fight? People can't function. Sometimes the end goal of the post-shock / post-incident "narrative" is just chaos and confusion because it's monetizable. Like if you donate $5 to me then I'll make sure it doesn't happen again.
There is a subset of Americans who resolve things with violence. It happens every night at bars. But the other 85% of the population is not doing that. The left is not trying to kill the right. The right is not trying to kill the left either BTW. Trump doesn't need to wipe out the left because he's in power already, he just wants to escalate his power so he can be in charge and redecorate more government buildings with fake gold furnishings and give himself titles, and not have to deal with the political system. To do that, he needs to construct a narrative that the country is under threat.
He wants to be like Fujimori in Peru. That wasn't a coup, it was an autogolpe where you go through the existing mechanisms to seize control. Peru at that time actually had the Shining Path though. Trump needs to escalate and he's sending National Guard troops around, but if the other side doesn't match the escalation, there's probably a limit to how far Trump and the right-wing cabal around him (who don't represent the majority of the population) can escalate. It's like J6. That was an attempt to use force to take power, but the plan needed "antifa" to be there for it to work so Trump could be like "we have to stop these communists from stealing the election (stop the steal!)" so he could try to remain in power, and antifa wasn't there so it didn't work.
>>2504108exactly the point i've been trying to make for the past year or so, people are trying to imagine this through the lens of more well known, but completely different events and trying to compare MAGA and the trump movement to fascist ones, but in reality, it has infinitely more in common with alberto fujimori, a man who was opportunistically able to ascend through the ranks of power, collaborate with the military, and lead a nice little authoritarian democracy, and who was infamous for so much stupid shit in a similar way to trump, trump is not hitler, he is the US version of fujimori, and the sooner you realize this the less effective his shock tactics become
>>2504841no, if a civil war happens, it will look like no other civil war, it will be a war on every level of society, at every town and so on, it will be extremely brutal, violent, and fraternal, brother against brother, father against son, and so on
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