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Any thoughts on this? For a quick primer, cliodynamics is basically quantitative historical analysis. Using what amounts to big data analytics, it builds computer models of macrohistorical trends to identify patterns and predict developments. By this method Turchin himself has claimed to have discovered certain formulas for civil unrest, though Marxist theorists could have told you most of that without the models. He claims that many years ago he predicted that civilization would enter an age of instability starting in the 2020s.

Some of cliodynamic's findings are as follows: Societies tend to function in circular centennial patterns of uptrends and downtrends, “an alternation of integrative and disintegrative phases lasting for roughly a century” as he puts it . The three most robust predictive metrics for societal collapse are a wealth disparity and declining wages, "elite overproduction" (too many highly educated people with not enough positions of power for them to fill), and an increase in public debt. Another is what he calls the "wealth pump" , where wealth is funneled up to the rich away from the poor, which usually marks the end of the integrative phase and the beginning of the disintegrative phase.
He claims to identify four major power sectors, the militaristic, financial, bureaucratic and ideological, which in good times, remain aligned, but begin to fall out of joint with one another and begin to squabble.

In my opinion, I like data based models. However, a model is not an explanatory theory. It is inert. And in that sense, Turchin does not go far enough. He has snapshots, but does not tie them together, probably because he wouldn't like where it would lead him: to Marx.