/leftypol/ - Leftist Politically Incorrect

Can Hamas still win?

Or are we changing the definition of what a “victory” in Palestine looks like?

>>2442297
Hamas has already dealt a massive blow to Israel and drawn them into a precarious position. The full extent of this is being covered up by Israel so it's hard to say just how bad it is. One could argue by extension they've weakened western hegemony by putting on display the complicity in genocide and raising domestic discontent. Now when western powers copy Israel's playbook people are going to be much wiser to what's going on and it won't be as effective. Hamas was never in a position for a conventional military victory, only to resist the occupation. That they have managed to precipitate a change "public opinion" (i.e. the ideological conditions of the international working class) is in itself a huge win and something that nobody saw coming. Hamas fights for the world even if the world (mostly) abandons Palestine.

The results of the struggle won't be fully clear until it becomes history and we can look back on it in hindsight. There's not that much point in trying to forecast the outcome of the fighting in Gaza or the wider geopolitical implications.

>>2442297
Can you won against imperialism without nuking Washington?

>>2442324
So basically, the more Palestinians being killed the more Hamas wins. Got it.

Does Hamas have a “day after” plan for when Israel collapses?

>>2442297
Whether or not this was calculated on their part, they have baited Israel into showing it's true colors as a genocidal settler-colonial ethnostate. This has essentially nuked public opinion of Israel in the West. I would consider that a victory considering the Palestinian struggle had been all but swept under the rug prior to Oct 7th.

>>2442381
What’s Hamas’ day-after plan?

>>2442383
It seems very clear they are willing to relinquish control over Gaza if it means the newfound support for the Palestinian cause results in the formation of a true independent Palestinian state. They have said as much multiple times.

>>2442360
>>2442383
There's no "day after" you hasbara bot.
Collapses don't happen over night. If/when Israel loses their ability to continue the fight, the "front" can be pushed inward as more territory is reclaimed by militant Palestinians. There's also active discontent among the military officials because they understand that the politics of the war are causing them to incur unnecessary losses. A coup is not off the table.

>Kill scores of children
>Closely associate with the most hated administration in recent US history
>Attack popular ecelebs because they're doing "antisemitism" by saying Palestinian kids shouldn't be starved to death
>Not reining in vulgar genocidal oafs like Smotrich
>Openly protect a nonce from prosecution by letting him flee to Israel
>Epstein's possible ties to Israel
Result:
<Europeans turning against Israel
<No more talk of further Israel-Arab state normalization
<Actual honest to god antisemitism rising everywhere
<Literal "Jews did 9/11" and Protocol posting being tolerated and growing on reddit, xitter and other places
<US Zoomers most anti-zionist anti-Israel generation in history
Zionists are fucked aren't they? The de facto annexation of Gaza also makes a one-state solution more likely.
How long until Israel has it's South Africa moment? I'm betting before 2050.
>>2442392
Hamas winning the war on the battlefield is delusional at this point. It makes more sense to argue the annexation of Gaza, whilst a defeat for Hamas, is paradoxically a "victory" for the Palestinian and anti-Zionist cause, because it unravels the careful demographic balance in Israel, which was one of the reasons why Sharon ordered disengagement from Gaza twenty years ago. When there were growing calls for emancipation and citizenship by people living in the strip.

Their attempt at forcing other countries to take on Gazan refugees and thus ethnically cleanse the strip has failed.
And by turning their backs on a two state solution, there will now be demands for a one state solution, both within Israel/the occupied territories and internationally. Which will end the Zionist project (Israel as a Jewish ethnostate) forever.

>>2442512
>Zionists are fucked aren't they?

Maybe it's copium, but I don't think they'll be able to fully annex Gaza before they end up totally isolated.

lol

I'm honestly surprised Israel hasn't been deporting the wb Palestinians to Gaza.

>>2442381
>US Denny's employees are now anti-israel
WOW. This is a riveting success. The loss of the one and only area of Palestine with an organized resistance is actually based now.

Dutch government just collapsed because PM wanted to introduce a bill to sanction Israel and his coalition didn't back him.

>>2443148
Is crazy how Spain is the most pro Palestinian state in Europe, I thought they liked seeing le """moors""" die and suffer

>>2443041
Public opinion of Israel is very important considering without public support in the west they'd have close to no allies, in a region where many people hate their guts and want to see them wiped out and destroyed. Same problem South Africa had basically.
People also underestimate (probably because much of the userbase here is relatively young) how for 20 years, 60% of people had a positive view of Israel.
I remember the early "War on Terror" when criticizing Israel at all was almost unthinkable, and was fundamentally anti-western, pro-terrorist, and an attitude associated only with fundamentalists, nazis, lunatic conspiracy theorists, and extremely fringe communists/anarchist "freaks".

>>2443178
Spaniards are surprisingly not ghoulish racists like much of the continent. I'd say it has a lot to do with modern Spain explicitly not being a nation state. The history of multiculturalism and Islam in Spain in general, both medieval and modern times. The Spanish Civil War, and the Franco Regime being hostile to Israel for much of its existence.

>>2443178
It's because they are one of the only governments in the EU that are still socdem-demsoc and the Spanish demsocs have ties to the Latin American Bolivarianists.

(Forgot to post link to the Gallup Polls)
https://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/gallup-polls-on-american-sympathy-toward-israel-and-the-arabs-palestinians
Basically public opinion of Israel has been majority positive for over 25 years, until recently.
But I'd go further, and argue that what's happening now is public opinion turning explicitly negative, and pro-Palestinian. Which is different from the pre-2000 (Second Intifada & 9/11) era altogether. When support for the Palestinian cause hovered around 1% at times.
Multiple US members of congress accusing Israel of genocide? Completely unthinkable in previous decades.

Everything is documented and shown on live TV where were you when jews of all people commit ethnic cleansing?

For a few days now in the imageboards there are pics being posted like these. My JIDF detector is off the charts.

I'll be honest, the whole 'Israel has been crushed/going to collapse' shit feels as unrealistic as China collapse cope, right now.

>>2443709
It definitely is. I really don't know how anybody could possibly spinning the last two years as a defeat for Israel.

>>2443709
Even in the best case, they can live is to fight another day, have a moment of peace and build a strong fighting force, but that hasn't happened, it's a slaughter and all their neighbours are scared shitless

>>2443709
Yeah. Unless their economy goes to shit, nothing will happen. Pissrael is still allowed to freely trade with everyone. No one but Yemen gives a shit about unlimited genocide and rape on children.

>>2442512
>Actual honest to god antisemitism rising everywhere
>Zionists are fucked aren't they?
The problem with this is that it reinforces among Israelis that Zionism is the answer to their situation compared to the alternatives. It's like "the world is a hostile, hardball, fucked-up place" so Jews need an army and "here's where we draw a line in the sand." The premise that Israel doubling down llike this will work against them operates on the assumption that the Jews there are fragile and won't be able to fight forever or at least not as long as their enemies. But if that's not true then you end up with a disaster that doesn't lead anywhere.

>The de facto annexation of Gaza also makes a one-state solution more likely.
>How long until Israel has it's South Africa moment? I'm betting before 2050.
I'm not placing bets but I think something like this is possible. But what I think it might look like, is starting to look at who is actually doing the labor in Israel on the ground. Like, who's picking the crops, building the apartments, emptying bedpans, and guarding shopping malls (yes, there are Arab security guards working these jobs in Israel). There are Arab neighborhoods and cities in Israel, within the pre-'67 borders. The Galilee might be majority Arab. I've read anecdotal stories about a phenomenon that's similar to "white flight" in the U.S. where Jews uncomfortable living around so many Arabs have packed up their shit and moved closer to central Israel. (Even stories of frightened Jewish kids not wanting to go to the pool because the Arab kids are rowdy!) Real-life stuff like this involving ordinary people is often neglected because it's boring and doesn't seem important, but maybe it's very important.

There's also apparently class stratification among the Arabs there with a local political hegemony of Arab Christians, and the Israelis are encouraging Christian Arabs to identify (some do) as "Arameans" and to serve in the army. It looks to me like an attempt to fashion another loyal Druze-like minority who don't see themselves as Arabs. Or at least not like Arab Muslims. They even got a Greek Orthodox priest to act as an agent for this project.

Whatever happens, I think socializing people into a killbot factory the government calls the "Israel Defense Forces" is very important for Israel. The army is not just a machine for killing people, it's also the machinery for mass socialization of Jews (most of whom were arriving from other places) into "Israelis." And also select minorities like the Druze, and Arab Christians (although I know less about the extent of this). The army seems to bind them together more than other institutions. They have a problem with ultra-Orthodox Jews not wanting to serve, but more than 70% of the adult Jewish population has served at some point in their lifetime. It's a mass-reservist model and also contributes to the army looking kind of like a big (if well-armed) militia.

When Israel goes to war, it mobilizes a lot of people who remain in the reserves until their early 40s. Imagine you are in your 20s/30s and most of your peers have served in the army and are in the reserves, and have to go on duty for up to a combined 54 days per year until they age out. That's during "normal" times. And their parents/grandparents were the same unless they were middle-aged Russians when they arrived.

I haven't quite figured it out, but I think there are strengths and weaknesses to this model. One of the strengths is that the army is not as removed from the civilian population as many armies are. It practically is the civilian population. This is not a colonial army in its structure even if it engages in colonial-style occupations. Predictions that Israel wouldn't fight after the Al-Aqsa Flood raid were incorrect because the civilian population and the army united and locked up tight. This was very bad. You want to heighten the gap between the army and the civilian population. The Israeli government being unpopular with Israelis also doesn't necessarily translate over to the army. The army as an institution might predate the government as an institution (in a sense).

On the other hand, this army isn't inexhaustible. Also the fact that they have to draw so many civilians away from their jobs to do war has an effect throughout the society. Businesses can't find workers, or they shut down because the guy who *owns* the business has to go off to war. The shared "division of labor" between couples breaks down because one has been called up when he used to drop the kids off at school, and now the other partner has to do that in addition to their other duties. But they will fight if they feel the stakes are exisential. However, if they do not feel it is, then there will be a collapse in morale. From some Israeli reports I've seen, it does appear that Israelis are feeling more and more exhausted.

There's no clear end goal in Gaza. The political conditions for Israeli victory are: return the hostages and destroy Hamas. There are around 20 hostages still alive. But it's not clear how they destroy Hamas if Hamas' goal is to simply survive, and they can do that by blending in with the civilian population. Israel in turn wages war on Gaza's civilian population. The consequences are horrendous. At same time, I'm not sure how many Israelis are thinking today that Hamas poses a threat to Israel, because again, Hamas are now just trying to survive. So what's the point of calling up tens of thousands of reservists AGAIN and invading Gaza City? (Answer: get the hostages.) But then why not make a ceasefire deal to return the hostages? (Because Hamas, in a sense, wins.)

>>2443714
People often give the fell for it again award to MAGAtards but that's not accurate because MAGA voters were retards to begin with and there was no tricking involved. It's dem voters who are award winners for the fell for it again award. Remember those articles calling Joe Biden the reincarnation of FDR? Crazy shit.

>>2443818
>because MAGA voters were retards to begin with and there was no tricking involved.
Yeah there was. All those latinos and blacks voting for Trump.

>>2443874
What makes you think they were tricked? Trump was very open about
A) Deporting latinos and
B) Shitting on African countries

>>2442883
KOBE

>>2443178
>>2443202
don't forget slovenia

If East Timor can win its independence and decolonization I don’t see why Palestinians can’t.

>>2443816
> But it's not clear how they destroy Hamas if Hamas' goal is to simply survive, and they can do that by blending in with the civilian population.
"Hamas" will be whatever next resistance movement arises. There is no way for Hamas to surrender or cease to exist in a manner that would satisfy Israel. They want to expel al Palestinians and expand Israel. Part of the issue with the army is that as you say it's a powerful binding experience, but in a special Israeli way. Because sure, the psychos whose job is to be a deathsquad or to form and pocket criminal organizations or to go and do the most horrible things imaginable are usually a select few in western armies. At least those officially designed to the task.

But in the Israeli army the genocidal violence, the supremacist colonial abuses are everyday bonding. Everyone is the squad that bonds by their "secret" gang rapes, everyone is the squad that bonds over their ritual cruelty. Everyone is the squad that bonds over being sadistic psychos. It's just that this duality is inherent ot being an Israeli and presenting Zionism to everyone outside their very limited world of world hegemon backed anachronistic colonialism.

Israel has all the reason to stop now that the UNRWA is gone, once thy clich the last of the credible guerrilla efforts. Once that's done, in a couple of generations, the Palestinians within Israel and the occupied territories will have even less of an identity than those abroad. New generations will not be employed by the UNRWA, they will not be educated by the UNRWA and their curriculums will be full hasbara. Israel is gonna be doing to surrounding Arabs what the Nazis only dreamed of doing with the Generalplan Ost.

And they need to, they need everyone to go through the army and come out a pedophile,rapist,murderer, supremacist psycho who can never truly bond or relate outside of those circles… because Israel lacks the demographics to expand and occupy the lands they want. So passing everyone through the monster machine is the only reliable way to import people who will be sufficiently committed to the implementation of Zionism. Because otherwise they will never locally produce the numbers to expand, or to hold the land, or to conquer it.

>>2443791
I'm dumbstruck why the argument hasn't been raised that if a Palestinian state legally doesn't exist (From the Zionist perspective), and "Judea and Samaria" (West Bank) and now the Gaza strip are sovereign Israeli territory, then it follows that the people living in these territories should all be entitled to Israel citizenship.
Anything less constitutes genocide or apartheid. You cannot have it both ways legally.
I know it's going to offend some people here, but compared to the ANC during apartheid (as raised in another thread) both Fatah and Hamas are objectively reactionary. The "progressive" demand would have been: Full citizenship and integration, as well as recognition of movements like Fatah and Hamas as legitimate Israeli political parties, even in return for disarmament, which then could also have served as a legal basis for compensation for the Nakba, and changed to the Law of Return.

The Zionist gambit to postpone both recognition of a Palestinian state and prevent a de-facto two state solution has failed. They've defanged the PA, and now severely diminished Hamas, leaving not much in the way of an armed opposition in favor of either a separate Palestinian state, or the abolition of Israel itself.
The full emancipation of all Arabs in Palestine/Israel is now the (perhaps only) way forward. And this is what "Leftists" should be pushing for.

>>2443986
Bigger question is whether that's desirable. I think full Portuguese citizenship (and its associated benefits 50 years later) would have been better than the Indonesian occupation which followed. But an autonomous region within Indonesia without continuous massacres and punitive actions would also have been better than what followed. With East Timor continuing to be one of the poorest countries in the world, with the Timorese people having little freedom of movement internationally.

>>2443816
Further reason why a one state solution and full emancipation should be pushed for, because it would break one of the social foundations of the zionist project.
Without an external enemy, and with non-Haredi jews losing their absolute majority this system becomes untenable. Unless they extend it to every citizen, but then they can no longer maintain both their ethnostate, and an ethnically Jewish army.

I think a place like Singapore has shown, together with many other explicitly multiethnic states, that this is not the end of a state or a people, but it does mean the end of apartheid and settler colonialism.
I also agree with your last point, and it touches on a Zionist dilemma and the reasons for the unilateral disengagement from the Gaza Strip twenty years ago: The point has always been to kick the can down the road. To keep the conflict going in a semi-frozen state, and prevent both the establishment of a unified state and separate Palestinian state. And maintain the majority Jewish demographic balance in Israel. As well as the preeminent position of necessity of the IDF as a social glue which turns Jews from all over the world into Israelis.
But that's all breaking down now. There's ever more Haredis, who do not wish to serve, or even in many cases, refuse to engage in any "profitable" (or at least taxable) economic activity. Discontinuing the wars also means everyone will be focused on Netanyahu and his domestic failures and scandals.
If one ends Hamas and any prospect for a two-state solution, it also threatens to upend the long-term demographics keeping parties like Likud in power.
The whole project is heading for a reckoning no matter if they "win" this war.

>>2443816
I thought the end goal was genocide? Bibi cares as much about the hostages as maga cares about epsteen's victims… Now pressure is on Hezbollah to disarm, which would mean further destabilization. It's almost like Israel needs violence to justify their existence. This is why a two state solution is the only way the Palestinian people will be able to thrive instead of trying to survive.

ITT: Anons squabble over the definition of "winning" in the changing environment of the conflict.

So far dying en masse, of privations under siege, *may* be winning but we really can't tell until the liberal Zionists declare themselves victorious over Netanyahu's government. Remain optimistic. No matter what happens to Palestinians, victory shall be ours, once Hareetz publishes it so.

>>2444591
Dunno about others, but I'm solidly on the "Hamas lost" side of things. But the entirety of the struggle was never completely tied up with Hamas anyway, anymore than Lenin was the beginning and end of Russian Communism.
This is however a new era.

Personally, I don't see the value of dwelling in fantasies about how Hamas will defeat the IDF in a final decisive battle and then all the Zionists will be immolated or something. It's cope at this point.
The ANC didn't win by destroying the South African state in its entirety and killing every white settler who moved there in the past one hundred years.
They won by securing emancipation, the abolition of the Bantustans, and full citizenship, political rights and freedom of movement.
That is what I believe the future is for the anti-Zionist cause from this point on. And it might be fought peacefully in courts and through protests both within Israel an internationally, or in the form of another intifada/insurrection, or both.
But I think the particular branch of anti-zionism represented by "defeating the IDF on the battlefield and killing all Zionists Haiti style" has reached a dead end.

You know, each time a Mossadist boasts about how they were able to hunt down and kidnap Eichmann from the other side of the planet, they are digging their own moral grave even deeper. Surely if they were able to get Eichmann from Argentina with zero civillian casualities besides the butthurt of some Argentinian Jew who never got his payment… they should be able to eventually to do the same for the Hamas dudes repsponsible for Oct 7, right?

>>2444003
Correct. Gaza and the West Bank could be purged entirely and they would say that there's Hamas in southern Lebanon, Sinai, Jordan, etc.

>>2444603
Israel isn't like South Africa when it comes to demographics. They have the settler population to replace the indigenous one. They're not invested in a project of white supremacy (with an indigenous population as an underclass) but white nationalism (removing totally the indigenous people). No situation exists where peace can be made with them, because they are committed to a fight to the death.

>>2445098
The same was said about Rhodesia and South Africa. It was a supposedly existential (racial) struggle against the indigenous population. But they still lost and were forced to accept emancipation.

Taking account both the non-Jewish arab population within Israel as well as Gaza and the West Bank, the growing Haredi population, as well as the increasing number of "left leaning" secular Israelis means the demographics keeping parties like Likud in power will become untenable as soon as the next election.
Shas + Likud is at 35 seats in recent polls. And the other remaining coalition partners are below the electoral threshold.