>>2481060>As I've mentioned previously, any anxiety that this conflict ends with Ukraine the victor and fresh as a daisy is almost certainly a result of the complete media blackout in the west about the effect this conflict has on Ukraine, all we're *allowed* know about the frequent nights of hundreds of drone strikes against Ukraine is the targets are all civilian and we're *allowed* to see the results only when they imply the target was indeed civilian and we're assured that Russia is unsuccessful at even that because there's always minimal reported civilian casualties that prove 99% (or 110% some days) of Russia's drones are failing to hit their civilian targets, attention is completely directed away from even entertaining the idea that the targets might not be civilian after all and that's why casualties are low and there aren't 1000s of photos of craters caused by downed and ineffectual Russian drones.. because there aren't any. I don't think they leave much in the way of craters (they just don't have that kind of kinetic and explosive power), but just a general comment about war propaganda: I was hanging out with my brother over the weekend, and he follows some of the media/propaganda more than I do (and a bit more sympathetic to the Russian side than I am), but he was showing me a lot of stuff on the Ukrainian side about how "their hateful kamikaze drones murdered our civilians" but then you read about it, and it's like one guy got hit by a drone. (The enemy drones are always kamikaze drones, our drones are just FPVs.) He also recently tried calming down an older liberal woman that we know who was hyperventilating about imminent war because those Russian drones entered Polish airspace… like Putin is trying to kill us!!! But we don't know if those drones wound up there because of electronic warfare jamming or they just lost the connection or went off course for whatever reason. (And this liberal woman was like "DO YOU LIKE PUTIN.") That said, modern weapons are really destructive and a missile loaded with cluster munitions that explodes in a populated area can just massacre everybody on the street. I've seen videos of the aftermath of that stuff in Donetsk after Ukrainian impacts and it's really ugly, of course that has happened with Russian missiles that have landed in Ukrainian cities.
>Kellogg and the Ukrainian military is just directing attention towards the seemingly immovable front as indicative of Russia's suffering, but then the Ukrainians have the considerably more aggressive military in this conflict with its military goals being expressly territorial based (i.e only 1991 borders counts as victory and nothing less, to now considering any amount of territory to be worth meatgrinding for) compared to Russia's more open ended goals. Like Russia retracted from Kiev and regrouped in the East as soon as it was obvious Ukraine wanted to do this the hard way, while Ukraine is institutionally incapable of cutting their losses with villages. Attention directed that way, not the way Kellogg wants, begs the question of who is likely losing more retain this "stalemate"?Well open-ended goals can be dangerous. I think the question regarding Russia's goals is, like, what is Russia's political objective? So that's the first question because the aim of the military is to align with that objective. But political objectives can also evolve during the war as a result of a mismatch between what you're trying to accomplish (as an ideal) and what you *can* accomplish in actual material terms in reality. So, in the beginning, I think it was pretty clear that the Russian objective was regime change in Ukraine and that was the "why" of the war, and they had a plan to take Kiev early on or at least put enough pressure on the city (and other Ukrainian cities) to collapse the government so Ukraine would give in. This plan could've worked because Kiev wasn't particularly well defended. But they underestimated the Ukrainian army, and didn't commit enough forces in the beginning, so there was a mismatch between means and ends. So now Russia was involved in a war with a geographically huge country with its original objectives having gone kablooey, so the Russian government modified its objectives to seize and consolidate territorial gains in the east and southeast, because Russia's forces can accomplish that much. Which is logical.
On the Ukrainian side, the battle of Bakhmut has figured highly here because it consumed a lot of their most experienced soldiers and they lost the "fortress" city anyways, when it would've been a better move to abandon the city and save those soldiers. They just couldn't flat-out hold the city. That was really demoralizing because they put a big propaganda effort into it (for political reasons), and Zelensky seemed to imagine the defense of the city as important for morale and they thought the back of the Russian army could be broken there. So that was probably the biggest error the Ukrainians have made in the entire war.
>>2481076>I suppose the real question is, why aren't Russia playing the same propaganda game? Why aren't Russia providing lists of its targets and photographic evidence of their destruction in these constant drone attacks? Why are they letting Ukraine direct attention away from 800+ drones striking largely with impunity with flashy imagery of a drone hitting an oil facility with a claim that this is destroying Russia. The latter is certainly adding to the morale of Ukrainians and NAFOids as is the lack of the former.A few questions. First, how will Russia acquire this photographic evidence? Russian agents on the ground filming it, if caught, or going to be imprisoned or killed. Most footage of Ukrainian drone attacks in Russia is filmed by Russian civilians and uploaded to the internet. It does appear to be the case that Russia is trying to discourage this. The Ukrainians seem to discourage civilians (and may have some laws or other coercive means) from filming and sharing footage of attacks on anything sensitive, but they encourage Ukrainians to share footage of a strike that hits something like an apartment building, because they use that for propaganda.
Secondly, it might not be the case that the 800+ drones are mostly getting through. Most of them might not be getting through and get shot down by the Ukrainians. On average, the number of drones is much less than 800 (that's relatively less common), and there's a network of thousands of sensors across the country + NATO radars and then a layered anti-aircraft system. Missiles and planes on the high end, then relatively big flak-type cannons in the middle, then at the lowest layer are thousands of Ukrainians in mobile gun + missile trucks (literally thousands of them) spread across the country and manned by older guys who have civilians jobs, and firefighters.
>>2481771I wonder if they thought nothing happens, Ukraine is devastating ethnic Russian villages, Russia is led by WW1 losing cucks, Putin a geriatric docile, Russia is barely able to move after "like" 5 years, etc?
Nah it surely must be even more delusional than any of that
>>2481966Sooner than the 1991 borders will be recaptured for Ukraine considering Zelensky has now walked back their only goal in this conflict.
>>2481968Amazing this high horse never appears in the far more frequent case of nafoids posting gore as proof Ukraine is winning
>>2481992Yeah if NATO can't even easily win a proxy war vs the Russian Federation they've got no chance of maintaining hegemony.
NAFOids like to pretend NATO is a slavering beast waiting for the excuse to invoke Article 5, but if they thought they could easily win they wouldn't need a pre-text. You can already see the anxiety in Poland and Finland, even of the rabid nazis in the Baltics think they can easily win.
>>2481998To pay the devil its due, I think there is an element of truth to this being ultimately down to Putin being a leader from a bygone age, I believe restraint has become tradition from the 25 years of NATO breaking its promise to not move an inch eastward and even deploying nuclear capable launch platforms every step of the way to Russia's border, so NATO firing its own missiles at Russia directly is just another provocation by NATO of so many by now, that continues to fail to put Russia under enough internal pressure that it abandons nationalism and has another go at Yeltsinism.
Quite possibly there could have been leadership that interpreted NATO missiles being fired at Russia as still not cause for firing the nooks, but a sign that conventional missiles thrown at a logistics hub in Poland or a site for drone launches in Finland are an acceptable level of fighting. If they didn't expect Russia to launch the nooks, then surely Russia can expect the same from NATO.
>>2482007I don't think they're the heirs of any pre-Soviet government, despite the symbolism, because they're not the progeny of counter-revolutionaries motivated by the cringe that Russians With Attitude are with their takes like
>Look at this postcard from 1912 depicting a futuristic Petrograd, we could have had it in 1961 if it wasn't for those darn reds who only merely got technologically advanced enough to send the first man into spaceThey're the progeny of the urban intelligentsia that saw all the solutions to their criticism of socialism in the neoliberalism that was being heralded as a resounding success in the west about 5 minutes after it was implemented.
>>2482016Sure, I've always understood the desire but
>>2482017 is correct and even if Russia was run by someone who not only talks the talk like Medvedev but walks the walk as well and NATO doesn't over-react, then it's still alternative history and anything is possible. Perhaps this alternative leader of Russia is completely unconcerned by the living standard of its citizens
because of the conflict, like so many leaderships in the west he tells his citizens to just fucking deal with it if they're not traitors and thus NATO propaganda about bringing Russia to its knees becomes more believable.
>>2482031AFAIK not in terms of being a nation "called" Ukraine, since the name literally means "in the borderlands" or "on the frontier" presumably of Russia, so a region called Ukraine has long existed but a nationality that exists on the border of Russia but is completely distinct from Russia seems dubious.
Again, I'm not an expert, but it's seems the "Ukrainian Nation" is simply that of the "Rus" when the Rurik dynasty was based in Kiev, before it eventually moved to Moscow and the country Russia was founded that eventually grew to include what is roughly now considered Ukraine. Essentially Ukraine is distinct from Russia in that it's the "true" Russia, the Russia that actually exists is fake Russia led by "Moskal" fakers, Ukrainian is the true language of the Rus and basically all progress of the Russian nationality since Kiev stopped being the capital is a lie. That they call themselves Ukraine and not "Best Russia" is a mystery to me.
>>2482043>Russia is going to secure the remaining three of the four oblasts and then hope to call it quits with Zelensky still running things.Assuming the Rada and military will still recognise his mandate to make that deal. There's a good chance they won't, Ukraine will likely politically fracture over it and then it's no longer a matter for NATO about how much money and aid they need to keep pumping into Ukraine to keep it stable, but which faction are they going to pick and are
they going to have the mandate to order the war to keep going or to call it quits?
>>2482031i would say the change was a bit more gradual after 2014. before that it was like russia-lite even though there was the orange revolution but it was more contested. you had the berkut polie and the police forces were called soviet militsiya. and the last remnants started to dissapear after 2014.
however you still had articles in major newspapers talking about far-right networks in ukraine, one even calling it the global hub of white supremacism. you had trade unionists from britain going to donbass to help the miners. populist figures like nigel farage criticised the EU's meddling in maidan. after 2022 that was the final seperation. all of this was gone. all we hear how it was its own distinct ethnographic nation going back to the Kievan Rus and libs were going wild over getting ukranianin piegrogis for takeaway
>>2482055>Assuming the Rada and military will still recognise his mandate to make that deal.Yeah, that's the second obstacle. The first obstacle was getting Zelensky himself to agree, which appears to have been accomplished because he and Kellogg are already laying the groundwork with a narrative that Russia kept east with the government intact is a loss for Russia.
For this second obstacle, well, Ukrainians are not terribly bright, which is how they ended up with Zelensky to begin with. I can conceive of a scenario where he's talking about Russia's temporary occupation and hypnotizing the hardliners to believe that Ukraine won't stop preparing to evict the Russians. Basically Qanon for people dumber than Trump's hicks.
>>2482058Fascists are the real life equivalent of the gamblers who go all-in during poker.
>Throw everything into military investment and attack everyone else<If you win you are now the undisputed hegemon of the world like America<If you lose you are BTFO for eternity Trotsky basically advocated for the Communist version of this strat.
The wrinkle here is that Trump genuinely does not want to get involved in Ukraine so the Ukrainian gambit is stuck in stalemate because he is unwilling to commit the forces needed to BTFO Russia out of Ukraine and on the other side Russia is unwilling to do a full mobilization and is relying on literal mercenaries so both sides are basically stuck because neither wants to commit.
>>2482142>I can conceive of a scenario where he's talking about Russia's temporary occupation and hypnotizing the hardliners to believe that Ukraine won't stop preparing to evict the Russians.I think the idea has legs, but I reckon this is what they're holding Zaluzhny in London for and haven't already tried to replace the increasingly unpopular Zelensky with him yet. It will be more plausible that the humiliating victory of surrendering the four oblasts and Crimea is only temporary if the leader of Ukraine is a famous general, kept well away from ongoing military failures, who presumably knows how to achieve the now secret goal of 1991 borders like the star of a comedy show depicting a politician didn't.
>>2482171Reasonable take, I think if there is any territory that Russia hasn't yet laid claim to but could try to capture anyway may be parts of Odessa oblast, maybe due to some kind of provocation in the Black Sea after hostilities are supposed to have ended or something to do with Transnistria. But if Russia declared four oblasts to now be Russian after referendums and stops there after capturing them, then that's a reasonable enough outcome IMO and contrary to claims by Kiev they will be lol'ing about it, I suspect Russia confirming their ambitions to have been so lowly all this time compared to assertions they wanted ALL of Ukraine will cause a re-evaluation of whether the expenditure of men and infrastructure (however great that turns out to be) was worth it.
>>2482215>who the fuck cares?>so intimately interested and irritatedLet's not over-exaggerate here, I was answering a question. The counter question is why are you getting aggressive about me answering a question?
Nevertheless, to answer your question, I normally wouldn't but Ukrainian Nationalism is interesting in that Ukraine is
not a nation by the metrics described by that other communist interested in nationalism, Joseph Stalin.
>>2482244>They have their own languageThey had to pass laws restricting the use of Russian. That ought to ring some kind of bell for you that the existence of an "official" language doesn't equate to being the common language. If you're trying to legislate people to use the "official" language over the common language, that sounds oh just a wee bit like what colonialists do, doesn't it?
>The Russian language<Banned because its not Ukrainian>The Orthodox Church<Banned because its not Ukrainian>Books<Burned because they're not Ukrainian>School Curriculum<Rewritten for not teaching that Ukraine was behind all great European powers like the Romansetc etc.
The reality is, if your "nation" depends on legislating people out of speaking the common language, bombing people in a large region because overnight you reclassified them as invaders despite them being born there, ban or censor media freely available anywhere else because it doesn't pay due respect to Ukraine's existence as an independent nation
even if created or set before 1991 and narratively splitting the country between European, affluent, educated, Galicians and dumbfuck de-industralised Moskal asiatic orcs bringing everyone else down, then really that's no nation at all.
>>2482276this war is interimperialist, thoughbeit.
Ukraine is fighting for the right of American capital to extract their resources.
Russia is fighting for the right of Russian capital to extract Ukrainian resources.
>but dispute over language and muh nazis and muh donbass citizensliterally all made up
>>2482282>>2482301Ah okay so it's always colonisation, just the creation of nations is self-colonisation. The Proto-Nationalist just shows up one day and says
>This is the language you will speak>These are the gods you will pray to>These are the fables you will accept as your history>This is the work you will now be doing>Here is your flagAnd most people just go along with it, nation created.
>>2482338you better stay OR ELSE
>MFWjkI post some weekly (each 3 to 5 days) briefings from ukrainian media, if you want to check 'em, just in case.
>>2482426I always find myself thinking of a time not long after the start of the war when friends came back from Poland with a story of how the local police chief (or mayor? idr) was given a disarmed grenade launcher or something as a present from some ukes and managed to blow himself up with it.
silly people.
>>2482187the only thing they can recover is the metal, for scraps recovery. lmao.
once the heat starts to fuck over a military component, the o-rings, rubber bands, oiled and greased joints, wire and cable sleeves and jackets, and even some metal components bending overstretched by the sudden heat change, the equipment is total loss.
david is sincerely one of the most unserious nafo retards there are in the Xsphere.
>>2482662Even without getting into the details, it's flawed in that if he can call that "recoverable" despite its appearance, then surely so is every burned out Russian tank, artillery piece, aircraft, etc posted to X.
In one post he has managed to completely undo years of meticulously propagating every video of a drone hitting Russian materiale and strategically reposing old footage as new, presenting different angles of the one destroyed target as multiple targets to build a narrative that Russia was being attrited hard by Ukraine, because hey, it was all recoverable anyway.
>>2482017I see no reason to believe that Russia has working nuclear warheads anymore. Obviously NATO has to err on the side of caution on this question, but I don't.
I
DO believe that Russian IRBMs and ICBMs are in a little better shape than their American and British counterparts, and that's probably a large part of why the bluff works.
>>2483545Putin won't do shit. Medvedev will just write more posts threatening legal action. Nobody respects a cuck.
The only reason the EU has been hesitating is economic prudence – fear of undermining their financial institutions wrt third parties, not fear of Russia – but with Magic Don running roughshod over centuries of economic theory with no repercussions, the EU probably feels that it can do the same.
>>2483598>>2483569Besides, Euroids have already sold off those assets to fund Ukraine, silently. They've promised the people in the know, who've forwarded their money to Ukraine, that in the event Russia capitulates, and gives up assets, those assets go to the people in the know. Problem is, it looks like that Russia isn't going to surrender, not now or ever, and thus new asset holders are looking more and more desperate to get rid of the toxic assets.
Amounts of funding for Ukraine tell us that this shit has already happened behind the scenes. That's why Euroids cannot do anything with the assets; those are already sold, and reselling them is impossible
>>2482692his intentions are a mystery to me. he work for zelya as an advisor, and yet, he didn't, or rather hasn't, leak(ed) any important information. unlike Vasily Prozorov, who leaked a lot of information to the point he got an assassination attemp on his head. Arestovich must know stuff, a lot of stuff, yet refused to leak the information to the public.
but at the same time, he acts like this weird antagonist of what ukraine is today.
I am convinced he plans to return to ukarine for a public office.
>>2483628Pierre Euroid struggling to
resell his toxic asset to Louis Euroid is one thing. He'd hardly struggle to give Ukraine his toxic asset for
free, which is what these articles are about, after all.
>>2483694>1.300 daysyou fell short with those numbers.
>fascistsucking dry the dead corpse of bandera is le awesome leftist and wholesome chungus communism.
>>2483641Because there was an attempt at a Ukrainian state by nationalists concurrently with the Russian Revolution. Although it wasn't very stable and went through various changes of government and territory, but nevertheless "Ukraine" as a nation-state was recognised by the Bolsheviks largely so that their anti-Bolshevik governments could be overthrown by a Soviet one to form the Ukrainian SSR, shortly after the policy of "korenizatsiya" was implemented across all of the USSR securing Ukraine's official recognition as a nationality.
That being said, again,
recognising a nationality (similarly to having an "official" language) doesn't necessarily make it so, as evidenced by the rise of Bandera despite the existence of an official Ukrainian nation-state and the current Ukrainian government being anti-Soviet and implementing de-communisation and having its current nationalism defined largely by a foreign self-styled ultranationalist disapora very upset about the Ukrainian SSR, despite the Ukrainian SSR actually resulting in a a Ukrainian state that lasted for around 70 years rather than about 5 minutes like the other prior attempts and the current attempt was pretty flawed also.
TL;DR: It's the result of happenstance created by the breakdown of Imperial Russia and the founding of the USSR
>>2483769>Aren't you the poster who said Budanov isn't dead because he hides? no. but I assume you are talking when there was an airstrike in a SBU office and budanov disappeared for some weeks/months right after that, very suspiciously? By that time I've assumed he got hit near the airstrike, because he appeared in an interview in NV. he later claimed those injuries (not seen before) were in other operations.
>Still reeling about that, eh?even if I were, how is this
>>2483693 connected to "reeling", in any case.
>>2484013PUTIN'S COCKHOLSTER!It's funny how libs feel they have the license to make as much homophobic jokes as they want because they are supposedly pro-gay. Or beyond even the gay aspect, just going with the:
>You take penis in one of your holes! That makes you the inferior party in the sexual relationship! You are incapable of being a strong man leader!So it is also misogynistic. I don't know what the catch all would be, I guess chauvinistic.
>>2484013Unspoilered pornography, reported.
(Also low-key kinda hawt tho ngl)
>>2483932I don’t care if Russia is fascist as long as they weaken the big fascist which has its boot on my neck.
The EU are all social-fascists anyway.
>>2484071That doesn't really change the fundamental fact that the policy was a practical one (and not universally supported) considering the collapse of the Russian Empire was naturally going to result in nationalists of all stripes declaring independence from Russia and thus opposing that eventuality to instead have a single Soviet nationality based in Moscow would cause needless resistance and clashes.
It didn't really matter back then whether the oppressed nation was a long existing country prior to being conquered by the Russian Empire with its own common language, understanding of its history, culture and traditions, etc or a nascent "rebirth" of a nation that needed to undergo "Ukrainisation" to define and then teach what their equivalents of those things are.
It only matters now because the USSR was dissolved and territory of the Ukrainian SSR was immediately taken over by a "nation in exile" that developed its own nationalism independently of Soviet Ukraine, which outright rejects the 70 years of Soviet Ukrainian nationalism in favour of its own that as you can tell by their national anthem, is based entirely around their territorial claims, conflating it with nation, and fighting Poland and Russia to givas it.
Perhaps there is a Ukrainian nation, but it has certainly been buried by this externally developed and then implanted bourgeois "nationalism" that is actually only concerned with territory and cleansing it of existing nations with a narrative of historical tragedy and contemporary self-defence. So if that's a legit interpretation of nationalism, then so is Zionism.
Nationalism, as defined by the Banderites and Zionists alike, exists with the sole purpose to overwrite existing nations and replace existing self-determination rather than to provide it.
>>2484141tl;dw
so we can expect them to take kyiv soon?
COMMENT: Ukraine’s coming financial stormhttps://www.intellinews.com/comment-ukraine-s-coming-financial-storm-401421/?
By Ben Aris in Berlin September 16, 2025
“A crisis is drawing ever closer. It will break in Ukraine, but it won’t begin on the frontlines, where the country’s battle-weary brigades continue to impose a brutal cost on the Russian invader. The coming crisis is brewing in the West, where the US pullback and European hesitation now threaten a financial disaster,” Timothy Ash, the senior sovereign strategist at BlueBay Asset Management in London wrote in a note for Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) on September 16.
As bne IntelliNews reported, Ukraine faces the risk of falling off a financial cliff this year. The problem is that the government is short $8bn-$19bn to cover the projected deficit this year. The Finance Ministry has been warning for over a year that it needs more help from its Western allies to pay for the war. It is running a deficit of about $50bn a year and the projected unfunded short fall for 2026 is $37.5bn, but the International Monetary Fund (IMF) team in Kyiv this week for funding talks, said that it thinks Kyiv needs an additional $10bn-$20bn next year: Ukraine spent $97bn in 2025, but is on track to spend $120bn in 2026.
Where will this money come from? Raising it from Ukraine’s allies has become next to impossible now that the US has essentially withdrawn all support for Ukraine. As bne IntelliNews reported, Europe can’t afford to take over the burden of supporting Ukraine entirely on its own, as most EU countries are either in recession or approaching a crisis. The rising debt amongst the G7 countries has already caused a bond market storm and France’s government collapsed last week under the weight of an intractable 5.7% of GDP budget deficit. And both the UK and France are close to debt crises of their own that may end in a Greek-style IMF bailout. Coming up with an additional $58bn next year for Ukraine from EU coffers is no longer possible.
“IMF messaging suggests that its prior conclusions that Ukraine’s gross budget and balance of payments financing needs over the four-year duration of the program were just $150bn were way too optimistic,” says Ash. “The financing currently available is inadequate to meet Ukraine’s impending needs. A swift change of course is needed if a financial cataclysm is to be averted.”
Europe has committed just under $170bn to Ukraine since the start of the war – more than the US, which has spent just under $100bn, according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy. On paper it is more. US President Donald Trump claimed earlier this year the US has committed over $350bn, but after Bankova checked the numbers the official allocations by Congress amounted to $196bn, but at least $100bn of that never arrived, Zelenskiy said in March. And since he took office, the Trump administration has sent next to nothing.
“Underpinning the Fund’s macro and financing framework was the assumption that the war would begin to wind down this year, and hence, Ukraine’s financing needs would also significantly reduce,” says Ash.
<No end to the war in sightThat is clearly not going to happen. The ceasefire talks that kicked off in Riyadh on February 18 have gone nowhere after Russian President Vladimir Putin made impossible claims and Trump has flip flopped on the shape of the possible peace deal. As bne IntelliNews opined, there are two sets of talks going one: the Trump administration has threatened Russia with extreme secondary sanctions but at the same time kept the door open to sanctions relief and business deals to tap Russia’s mineral riches.
Since the full-scale invasion, Ukraine has been running budget deficits equivalent to $3bn-$4bn a month, most of which has been covered by IMF and Western financing. Assuming that the war would essentially end in 2025, the Fund had presumed the budget deficit and financing needs would more or less halve in 2026, and then fall to a fraction of this in 2027. “It was a heroic assumption, and it was wrong,” says Ash.
This problem has been apparent for a while, yet the IMF has yet to recalibrate its model that sets the agenda for the size of its funding programme.
It is becoming increasingly obvious that the Kremlin has no interest in peace talks, as it continues to make steady, albeit slow, progress on the battlefield. At the same time, after three years of heavy investment, its military production is now producing more materiel than it needs so that the process of restocking has begun as Russia starts to rebuild its military capacity. The peace talk efforts came to a definite end last week when presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov officially put ceasefire talks on hold on September 12.
The expectations are now moving towards a long war, which implies much higher long-run financing needs, says Ash. On September 11, EU foreign affairs chief Kaja Kallas said that she expected the war to continue for at least another two years. Others have speculated that Putin will simply continue until Ukraine collapses completely or Zelenskiy capitulates, however long that takes. Time is on his side.
A lot of attention has been paid to Russia’s economic problems, which are getting worse, but with inflation falling much faster than expected – the core macro problem – thanks to CBR governor Elvia Nabiullina’s unorthodox plan to artificially cool the economy, growth will slow this year before it starts to recover next year, according to the CBR’s latest outlook.
The Kremlin is also short of money. This year’s budget deficit is ballooning, but the government has already started a discussion on raising VAT and it also has some RUB20 trillion in banking sector liquidity to tap to cover a deficit of up to RUB5 trillion now expected for this year. In short, the Kremlin has access to enough money to keep the war up for several more years.
<IMF’s blinkered approachThe IMF has acknowledged that its previous estimate was wrong. It now says that an anticipated additional $10bn-$20bn will be needed by its Extended Fund Facility (EFF) by the end of 2027. Ukraine’s Finance Ministry put the number at $37bn. “Both could prove significant underestimates,” says Ash.
Ash argues that both the government and IMF take a “blinkered” approach to estimating Ukraine’s financing needs. They focus only on budget and balance of payments requirements. That excludes the broader, but essential, military support. Using the data from the Kiel Institute of the World Economy, Ash estimates that the annual cost of the war to the West of supporting Ukraine has been nearer to $100bn annually— more than double IMF estimates.
Finding new IMF funding for Ukraine will have to clear several hurdles. It will need to get reassurance that it can be financed to get a sign off from shareholders.
“In other words, that the numbers add up. Even to meet the IMF’s narrow focus on budget financing needs, the West will have to come up with $20bn-$37bn in new funding, just to take the country to the end of the program in March 2027,” says Ash, and that means calculating on spending $100bn for at least another three years.
The Biden administration used to cover about 40% of Ukraine’s financing needs, but with the Trump administration now out of the game, this very considerable annual funding requirement will fall squarely on Europe.
“Europe cannot and will not pick up this bill,” says Ash. “The harsh political, social, and economic reality across the continent means there is no realistic possibility of Ukraine receiving such a long-term financing commitment. Europe is struggling with rising budget deficits, subdued growth, competing demands for defence and social needs, and a populist tide demanding spending at home. The situation is now serious.”
Ash speculates that the IMF shareholders might nix any proposal to even increase funding by another $20bn in the short-term, which would quickly precipitate a crisis. And would immediately raise doubts about Ukraine’s ability to continue its defence against Russian attacks.
“Europe needs a plan B, but in truth, that’s really now actually Plan A. For more than three years, Europe has ignored the very obvious solution to its problem,” says Ash.
<CBR moneyAsh, and many others, have been advocating for several years to seize the $300bn of frozen Central Bank of Russia (CBR) assets and use them to pay for the war. The idea came up again most recently at a meeting of EU foreign ministers in Copenhagen on September 1, but was ultimately rejected. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen also brought it up during her EU State of the Union address (video, transcript) on September 10, but said the idea was now off the table.
The problem is that the money is frozen, but technically it still belongs to the Bank of Russia. Confiscating it – taking ownership and spending it – as opposed to just freezing it, would undermine confidence in both the euro and the European banking system, say critics – something that central bankers in Europe are not prepared to do. In the meantime, von der Leyen has suggested that the money can be used more “creatively” and invested into some sort of “victory bonds” to generate more revenues. The profits from the assets have already been used to underpin a $50bn G7 loan for Ukraine, the Extraordinary Revenue Acceleration (ERA) scheme, but that loan is already nearly fully distributed.
While the EU leaders are very unhappy about seizing the CBR’s money, faced with the prospect of a Russian military victory in Ukraine, the pressure to grab those funds will clearly build steadily.
“All roads lead back to the issue of freezing, seizing, and using the $330bn in Central Bank of Russia CBR) assets in Western jurisdictions,” says Ash. “This money would amply finance Ukraine’s defence needs for a long war and send a powerful signal that Ukraine can ride out Putin’s long-war scenario and his own failing economy. This would increase the Kremlin’s risk in continuing its war of aggression, and quite possibly force it to the negotiating table.”
“Opponents of the need to seize Russia’s CBR assets have an armory of excuses, although none is very persuasive. Such arguments are, anyway, less effective the worse Ukraine’s financing dilemma becomes,” Ash argues, highlighting the dilemma that Europe is now facing. “And while these critics aim to explain what they think won’t work, there are no suggestions about what will.”
<A crisis is comingA crisis is drawing nearer. Relying on European taxpayer support is no longer sustainable. The political fallout from the drain on Europe’s economies and the ballooning deficits and debt is already visible, fuelling a popular backlash and the rise of the far-right parties in Europe. Germany’s AfD (Alternative für Deutschland) just tripled its share of the vote in a German regional election this weekend, taking 15% of the vote in North Rhine-Westphalia, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s home state. The AfD are now leading in the national polls. Similar things are happening in the rest of the EU.
“And yet the alternative of Ukrainian bankruptcy and defeat is a terrifying spectre for the continent,” says Ash. “If that happens, Europe would be faced by many, many millions of Ukrainians moving West, further straining its social, economic, and political fabric. The consequences get worse the more closely they are examined.”
Ash goes on to paint a grim picture of what Europe would look like if Ukraine loses: Europe’s two largest military industrial complexes would fall into the Kremlin’s hands; European defence spending would need to immediately rise to the 5% of GDP; budget deficits and borrowing needs would soar; interest rates across Europe would rise; and real GDP growth would slow.
“The opponents of seizing CBR assets, particularly Belgium, Euroclear, and the European Central Bank (ECB), need to detail their exact plan for the defence of Europe if Russia’s billions are left unused,” says Ash. For now, all we can see is blank faces — they have no plan.”
The flaw with this argument is that it assumes the only solution is to fund Ukraine to continue the war in the equally vain hope that the Russian economy will eventually collapse or that Trump will get back into the game and impose such tough sanctions on Russia, Putin will be forced to the negotiating table – an equally unlikely scenario.
In the short-term the only immediately available scenario that will end the war is that Zelenskiy accepts the terms that the Kremlin has laid out at the various rounds of talks this year along the lines of the failed 2022 Istanbul peace deal. It is effectively the Finlandisation of Ukraine where it gives up 20% of its territory, returns to neutrality, and promises never to join Nato. There are some tough choices ahead, and none of the alternatives are particularly palatable.
>>2484293>European defence spending would need to immediately rise to the 5% of GDP; budget deficits and borrowing needs would soar; interest rates across Europe would rise; and real GDP growth would slow.Another example of the narrative around Ukraine receding, to where the conflict is worthwhile for the west because it's supposedly cheaper to fight to the last Ukrainian killing the last Russian than to re-militarise for WW3, despite that only being necessary because of NATO expansion and aggression.
>“The opponents of seizing CBR assets, particularly Belgium, Euroclear, and the European Central Bank (ECB), need to detail their exact plan for the defence of Europe if Russia’s billions are left unused,” says Ash. And this is just self-victimisation, that doesn't even necessarily read as doing the "hilarious" thing of undermining the reserve currency status of the Euro to hand over Russian money to its enemy for no legal reason (considering the EU isn't officially at war with Russia), but rather a necessity because Russia economically oppressed Europe by lasting this long and forced their hand in gutting their own economies to continue this proxy war, thus it's more like stealing bread to feed a dying a recently discovered cousin or something.
>>2484738>(or is too effective like Wagner)Wagner was no more effective than the regular military. It just threw thousands of prison fodder to their death to try to capture a city more quickly. Even if that is "effective" in the short term it isn't sustainable and it's stupid.
Prigo was a greedy attention seeking fraud and a traitor. I'll take Putin and his boomers any day of the week.
>>2483632The problem that some NAFOs like Astraia are having is reconciling their delusional belief that Ukraine is winning with their true belief that winners don't need to go around demanding unconditional ceasefires the way Zelensky does.
Instead of reconciling this by questioning their belief that Ukraine is winning, they're compelled to posit treachery on Zelensky's part.
>>2484811Lovely bit of rossfash cope. Keep it coming.
You're also economically illiterate, but that's not surprising given your rossfascist politics.
Refineries being sanctioned by Ukraine = less domestic crude refining = more crude supply on the global market = lower prices.
>>2484830>Refineries being sanctioned by Ukraine = less domestic crude refining = more crude supply on the global market = lower prices.https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/15/oil-holds-gains-as-investors-eye-impact-from-attacks-on-russian-energy-facilities.html<Oil rises after attacks on Russian energy facilitiesHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
Look at your pathetic mind!!!!
LOL LOL LOL
HA HA HA HA HA HAHA HA HAHAHAH
>>2484849>He was wrong butbb-b-b-b-b-b-b-butttttt
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAH
HAHAHAHAHAA
Pathetic minds seething about their NAFO pick-up truck being smoked by Russian SOF
hahahahahahahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh
hahaahhahahahahaha
You deserve all the pain you feel
HAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHAHA
>>2484852>fash retard tripling downShiggy
Read your own article clown
>“If we are seeing a strategic shift by Ukraine towards Russian oil exporting infrastructure - that brings upside risks to forecasts,” IG markets analyst Tony Sycamore said, despite ongoing concerns around oversupply as OPEC+ plans to ramp up output.If you don't understand supply and demand you should stop posting and pretending like you know anything at all.
>>2484854>lower pricesLOL LOL LOL LOL
YOU LOSEEE LIKE THAT NAFO TRUCK LOL LOL LOL LOL
KEEP COPING LMAO LMAO LMAO
>>2484857AWWWWWW, THE LITTLE NAZI IS BIG MAD BIG SAD LOL
HE COULDN'T MEME HIS PICK-UP TRUCK INTO A CHARIOT OF REICH FIRE
LOL LOOLL L L AWWWWWWWW
>>2484861The Russian economy is already very weak and brittle. Refineries playing air defence will make it even more so.
>TrumpI wonder why fascist bootlickers like you need to bring him up? Both your idols Trump and Putin are getting embarrassed internationally seemingly everyday now.
>>2484868>The Russian economy is already very weak and brittleYep, I read it everyday in the think tanks and media. Oh wait…
>I wonder why fascist bootlickers like you need to bring him upBecause liberals self owned by staking democracy on reactionary wars against a supposed weak periphery nation. Nice rotten foundation, sunk Biden very well. Don't have intel interfere in elections and drive war with Russia, lesson learned. Or not.
>>2484871What are you talking about? You seem quite confused. Take a deep breath and write a proper post fascist.
>>2484871You can see it everyday in Russia. The war has, and continues to, devour all other industries which are failing and going bankrupt. Russia's own government economists say plainly that the non-military economy has been in recession since the war started and this recession is reaching a crescendo this year owing to mega-high interest rates and other factors.
>staking democracy on reactionary warsLol you think Ukraine somehow started this war? I'm sure you've justified imperialist aggression in your confused little head. You might just be stupider than that other anon who doesn't know what supply and demand is.
It's obvious to absolutely anyone that Ukraine defends itself against a reactionary overbearing neighbour that huffed its own propaganda about being a superior nation that has the right to absorb territories it once used to control.
>intel interfere in electionsOh my you're a delusional vatnik. Just mental.
>>2484876>devour all other industries which are failing and going bankruptDoesn't seem like it to me. And I live in Russia, you know? Wages have gone up, and prices don't catch up to wages. There are issues for replacement parts for industries, or say for American and Euro planes, but the thing is, sanctions on resupplying Russian-owned planes with parts backfired in that Russia is now buying Chinese planes to replace unserviceable American and Euro trash.
In short, Russia has minor troubles for it's economy, entirely limited in scope in changing suppliers; China wins bigly, getting for itself for free a market of 150 million people; Westoid trash loses a market of 150 million people. What are you celebrating here, exactly?
>>2484901One-sided 'pure leftist' critiques are so 2022 and were foiled by the Banderites marching with one too many swastikas.
Didn't you get the both-sides/anti-campist monographs? Get with the times instead of being so obvious.
>>2484915>anti-campistslmao
call them what they are
SHILLS
>>2484885And an export ban
And zero gas available at many gas stations nationwide
But you won't hear about that on RT.com comrade, it's not proper pravda
>>2484887>>2484894Lmao at fash cope.
>bombing our refineries is good actually :^)>losing a million men in a war is good actually, because wages go up :^)>losing a market of $20T to sell to is good actually, because something something sieg hei- i mean viva la revolucion comrade :^)Rossnazis and their contorted twisting of the truth is always good entertainment.
>>2485015>Russian fascismOf course we condemn Russian fascism, that's why we condemn the Ukrainian Army and it's embracing of the fascists who want to dissolve the RF for the sake of a Russian ethnostate.
>imperialismWe of course condemn Ukrainian imperialism into Novorossiya.
>>2485059Fuck else they got going on in their lives lol
terminally online = terminally a loser
>>2485168I lost focus and messed that up lmao, which invariably does happen when I'm making fun of someone else for losing focus.
I was trying to make fun of the NAFO poster in
>>2484876 for double-quoting Intbrig.
>>2485244There's a prolific poster (or set of posters) in /uhg/ who uses (use) the anarcho-communist flag. Been around for years. Often seems to posts the same videos that our resident trolls post (probably not the same person – I suspect the diehard Ukros and the "anti-campists" lurk around the same militant Ukro Twitter/TG accounts, because that's what a genuine "anti-campist" does, after all!).
Some videos from this thread, for instance:
https://archive.4plebs.org/_/search/filename/donbass%20water/https://archive.4plebs.org/_/search/filename/pavel%20gubarev/ >>2485631Another one that the troll/trolls posted here earlier:
https://archive.4plebs.org/pol/search/filename/salavat/Again just entirely that ancomm poster. Maybe it is him/her after all, lmao.
>>2485670>of shrinkage in gross domestic product (GDP) indicate a recession.problem is, Russia isn't in negative GDP growth (degrowth).
It's the absolute state of copium.
look at the states of europe then, looking for IMF funding, massively firing people. just this week france government is on tension, with massive rallies. uk coallition in taters. merhz has a ticking bomb with the nord stream sabotage carried out by the ukies he loves.
>>2485771It seems like what we're seeing is the collapse of the front, yeah. Some people just seem to enjoy acting like it's not happening because it isn't ww2 any more and there aren't massive armored columns makin DA BIG AWWOWS.
But what we have been seeing is the progressive degradation of the Ukrainian lines, which they thenselves have been admitting, going from squads of five holding one kilometer, to four watching three kilometers, and now three man squads assigned to 10 kilometers of front.
Which goes quite far in explaining how we keep seeing Russians making deep incursions behind the front, either in force or by these DRG squads, who also seem to be acting with greater and greater impugnity.
This is on top of a recruitment deficit of 1/3 of what Ukraine needs just to tread water. I guess zelensky has bought some time by letting the 18 year olds bail to the EU but it isn't going to help the recruitment program or do him any favors with his paymasters that have been wanting the youngest demo mobilized.
The contraririans keep pointing to the attacks on Russia's oil infrastructure as evidence of ??? Something? But cutting Russian capacity by some percentage points doesn't do anything to materially improve Ukraine's situation. Maybe if they were able to somehow do some Death Star trench run shot where all Russian oil facilities everywhere were taken out of commission for a great length of time it might help, but otherwise the effect is negligible.
This is all on top of reports of frequent desertions on the part of the Ukrainians, and now History Legends is reporting that elements of the 3rd army corps reported the location of their own headquarters to the Russians after their commanders screwed them over. People are starting to attack and resist the press gangs rounding people up to get murdered at the front. Apparently that Banderite rada member that got got a few weeks ago was killed by the father of a man that got killed at the front. Broadly speaking, Ukranian morale seems to be through the floor. The only ones that seem eager to fight at this point are the fascist brigades, but it might be because they don't really have a choice.
Imo all the attention has been on Pokrovsk, but the Russians are getting dangerously close to Zhaporizhia. I'm no great general, but just looking at a map, it doesn't look like there's much between Zhap and Dnipro, which looks like the main logistics hub for everything east of the Dnieper. And Dnipro itself doesn't even need to be taken, because from Zhap there's a highway that cuts up to Pavlograd in the east of it, which seems to be sitting on the biggest arteries. So in my novice opinion, if some kind of big spontaneous collapse happens across the entire front, it will come after the fall of Zhaporizhia.
>>2485322This is good. It will at least force the Putinists to more tightly control capital which furthers the material conditions for the transition to socialism. And if the Putinists don’t do it then it will further support for communist elements.
This is, again, why our “anti-campists” are actually reactionaries who long for the restoration of peaceful cooperation between neoliberal capitalists.
>>2485903 (me)
right sektor black-washing.
>>2484876>You can see it everyday in Russia. The war has, and continues to, devour all other industries which are failing and going bankrupt. Russia's own government economists say plainly that the non-military economy has been in recession since the war started and this recession is reaching a crescendo this year owing to mega-high interest rates and other factorsThis is speculative. Russian government institutions show the civilian economy is indeed impacted toward slowed or stagnant growth in 2025, not since the war started, but there's no sign of a prophesied collapse from adjusting interest rates that will save the war effort in Ukraine. Economic pressures on Russia are those on the global economy, none of the G7 look particularly healthy. Inflation is high and investment shaky in general, and banking on sanctions and war delivering on a crisis locally in the Russian part of the world economy is just gambling after years of bad news. I would be more concerned about Ukraine due to its overwhelming aid dependence on the struggling G7, whose issues are far deeper than defense spending.
I think the warning sign here is the war is a dimension of wider global contractions because it was always the product of them. Issues in globalization after 2008, 2016, and 2020 have long fed escalation in the post communist east into an outright existential threat to Russia and its frozen 90s transition.
>Lol you think Ukraine somehow started this war?Ukraine and NATO, yes. Under Biden's attempt to divide the world ideologically and halt the decline of capitalism in advanced countries, the UN backed Minsk process was sunk and replaced with NATO accelerating towards a confrontation over Crimea and Donbass, which was supposed to politically unite the West and restore confidence in its global power.
>Oh my you're a delusional vatnik. Just mental.Nobody disputes intelligence meddling in US elections to stymie instability and populism, which has ballooned since the days of OWS and the tea party thanks to the internet merging with IRL, and it has a mirror in 2014 political meddling in Ukraine which it merged with to craft one international info war for 'democracy'. All of this exposed the limits and flaws of bourgeois democracy as its prosperity progressively dried up, and its international system only delivered on damage control for crisis and war, not growth. We live in a period of abject regression.
The following resolution was passed unanimously by the tenth party congress of the CPGB-ML.
*
This congress salutes Russia’s important role in fighting against the incessant provocations and aggression of imperialist nations.
This congress understands that Nato was formed as an alliance of imperialist states to counter the rise of socialism and the anticolonial movement, which were the main threats to the ability of western European nations and the USA to extract superprofits from the oppressed nations of the world. In particular, Nato was a military alliance directed against the USSR after it had defeated the second military attempt to crush it – Nazi Germany – and had won even greater prestige and respect from workers around the world, much to the chagrin of the imperialists.
Although touted as a ‘defensive’ alliance, Nato began a programme of aggressive expansion and open hostility after the destruction of the USSR and eastern bloc with the criminal bombing of Yugoslavia. It set about wreaking havoc across the world almost entirely unchecked, seeking new markets, new sources of labour-power to exploit, resources to plunder, and rival industries to crush.
Russia draws the rabid hatred of our bourgeoisie because, under the leadership of Vladimir Putin, it began a process of re-establishing economic independence rather than remaining a supine colony for the vultures of western capital to exploit at will.
The military actions taken by Russia have been a direct response to imperialist aggression, which funds colour revolutions and terrorism in countries it seeks to destabilise and control economically. The majority of Russia’s military activity has thus occurred within the former states of the USSR, in the case of Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Transnistria and Ukraine, or within states that had an existing friendly relationship with the USSR in the case of Syria, Mali and Burkina Faso.
Although this congress has no illusions about the bourgeois nature of the Russian state and economy, Russia is not an imperialist nation and it is currently playing a significant anti-imperialist role in the world. It was not protestors outside Downing Street that stopped British or Israeli bombs and missiles being launched at Syria, it was the presence of the Russian armed forces and anti-aircraft batteries.
This congress holds that it is incumbent upon us to defend Russia from imperialist aggression and propaganda, as it is still, along with China and Iran, one of the great prizes that imperialism seeks to conquer in order to try to breathe new life into its moribund system.
This congress says: Hands off Russia!
>>2486390Nope it was not the SBU those Cubans were trafficked by a Russian ring
https://web.archive.org/web/20230907190919/https://cubaminrex.cu/es/declaracion-del-ministerio-de-relaciones-exterioresBut maybe it was at the initiative of a PMC or another private actor rather than somewhere in the government
Let's see where this goes because Cuba said they weren't part of this war and they were very much against mercs
>>2486384Based if true.
Two can play the merc game.
>>2487179 (me)
>Estonia has invoked Article 4 (not 5) lmao.A nothingburger btw, because it's what Poland already did.
>>2487179 (me)
>>2487183 (me)
>>2487200Just found out that it was Russian planes, so the Ukrainian FF explanation crumbles.
Even so, provocatively testing readiness of NATO countries by flying planes into their airspace goes against mainstream Kremlincuckology theory, so I dunno…
>>2487288Victory (with Cucktin characteristics) by 2050*
[*] NATO is allowed to nuke the RF a couple of times. As a token of good will.
>>2487259>copeThe war started to keep Ukraine out of NATO and the EU.
Has Ukraine joined NATO and the EU yet?
>1300We keep mentioning it, but the "special 48 hour anti-terrorist operation" has been going on for over 11 years now.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-270351962025-2014=???
>>2487324Cucktin said Ukraine can join the EU if it wants to
so…
>>2487326>Another possibility I've seen mentioned is that the Kremlinoids are trying to strike fear into NATO so it keeps its gear for itself instead of sending it to Ukraine.Nato is stopping shipments of equipment to Ukraine because they a) can't make enough, fast enough and b) there aren't enough trained Ukrainians to use them
Hth
>>2487592Yeah, because I'm not a headline reader and actually know what I'm talking about.
I guess you're welcome for the dopamine hit. I hope you're able to find some other way of enjoying yourself other than acting like a retard for the attention of strangers.
>>2487667there's no need to win the war quickly
there's no need to risk nuclear war to do so
stop being a baby
>>2485942>>2485950Check this out: German/Westoid historians revised German tank numbers down from 18000 to 3600 for 1941
Today I want to talk about how many tanks Germany had at the time of the attack. The most beloved author among Russian historians is Muller-Gillebrand. It would seem that we also had field marshals in captivity, but we didn't think to ask them, and now we have to believe an honest German historian with a double surname.
So, what does he say about the presence of tank forces in the Third Reich at the beginning of the war? 17 full-strength tank divisions and 2 reduced-strength tank divisions. All about everything, tanks and assault guns "In the active army in the east on 06/22/11," according to him, there were 3,582 armored vehicles. I would like to emphasize that tanks and self-propelled guns of all types. Well, about 300 self-propelled guns were a little late, but against the background of the figure of 3582, we can forgive a person for a 10% error. Impressive! My first thought was that there were so few of them. Real Aryan heroes who crushed hordes of Bolshevik tanks. How many of our tanks were there for one German? Judging by the most daring calculations, 25,000 Soviet cars were put up against them. Almost seven tanks per one.
What were these German tanks considered?
They were counted by state for 41 years, because there are no materials in the book about the availability of materiel in each specific division. That is, a person took and honestly multiplied the staffing table by the number of divisions. The man had about 170 tanks per division, except for two reserve 350 tanks each. Well, what could possibly be wrong here? After all, the state exists, so that, plus or minus a lapot, it would be so. I agree with you on that. We'll count by state, too. Maybe we'll get the same numbers. ( 3582-700 ) / 17 = 169, we will count 170.
To begin with, let's clarify what kind of staff the author took. This is the state of autumn-winter 1941/42. After the summer battles, the Germans decided to reorganize their tank units and remove one tank regiment from the division, and make the regiment 2 battalions in all divisions. Prior to that, according to the German general, there were regiments for both the 2nd and 3rd battalions. According to the 3rd battalion, these were regiments exclusively of Czech vehicles. German vehicles were always assembled into regiments of two battalions. There is exactly one exception to this rule - the 3rd TD. It had a regiment of German tanks for 3 battalions.
So, for some reason, the staff was taken not for the summer of 1941, but for the fall. We watch our hands. Minus one tank regiment. Hoba! Each division has 1 less regiment! It's become autumn! Not before the attack! Well, how many tanks did it have in the state after the reorganization? There were 201 tanks for two battalions + command vehicles. That is, 1 battalion can be considered roughly 100 vehicles. Won't it be 170, but 200 cars in the shelf?
Well, as we count 17 divisions * 1 regiment * 2 battalions * 100 vehicles + (700 vehicles from special divisions) = 4100. It's not 3582 anymore. 400 pieces are missing. Only according to the previous staff, they say that there were 2 regiments, and their number was reduced in the fall. So in the summer there were: 17 divisions * 2 regiments * 2 battalions * 100 vehicles + (700 vehicles from special divisions) = 6800. Ouch! And how did we do it?
Let's keep counting. We finally counted the regiments in the tank division. There were 2 of them, then after the summer battles I became one. So how many battalions were there 2 or 3? We remember that, according to an honest German, there were 2 battalions in the tank regiment of all German divisions except the 3rd. When the 3rd appeared, it was done exclusively for units with Czech equipment. So, Czech LT-38(t) tanks in the 7th, 8th, 12th, 19th, 20th divisions. There is also one division whose number I did not find, LT-35(t) tanks in it. She fought in Army Group North.
6 divisions of Czech tanks, and one German for 3 battalions . We count with them: (7 special TD * 2 regiments * 3 battalions) + (10 ordinary TD * 2 regiments * 2 battalions) + 700 tanks in two special divisions = 8,900.
That's it, isn't it? No, not all of them, we take the German 11th Panzer division and find out how many battalions there are in 1941? Wikipedia does not provide 3 battalions. So maybe she's the one with no number? No. The 11th fought as part of Army Group South. So the 3rd Tank is not even an exception?
Well, what did the British think about the composition of the German tank regiment? In 1941, according to their intelligence data, these are 3 battalions! That's how it is, it coincides with the Soviet data! So who should I trust, an honest German or lying scoops and Anglo-Saxons? If there is such a confusion, then maybe we should listen to what the Germans say about their tank troops when they don't touch the numbers?
According to the results of the Polish company, they are strengthening divisions. The fighting near Warsaw showed that tanks could not break through stubborn defenses without infantry. More tanks are being added, and a brigade level is being introduced. If there is a brigade, then it is not one regiment in a division.
According to the results of the French campaign, the division decides to add more tanks. The battles to break through the front and the fact that even Dunkirk had to be blocked rather than stormed showed that it was necessary to make the formations stronger. The intermediate level of command has been removed. Now there are no brigades in the division, only regiments. It is understandable that new formations have been deployed, but officers have not been trained. I have to save money. Until the autumn of 41, the topic of the number of battalions does not come up, then the staff appears, according to which an honest German counts. True, he has 30 fewer tanks in his regiment, but who finds fault with the little things 20% there 20% here, gentlemen do not pay attention to this?
So maybe the Germans always believed that 150-170 tanks per regiment was optimal, and 200 were formed in it only on the occasion when the old states were shuffled? No. In the future, they will hire a staff of 250 vehicles per regiment for 2 battalions. That is, obviously 200 tanks per regiment are not enough for them. If this happens, it is not from desire, but under the pressure of circumstances. The same applies to the number of battalions. They want to have them again. 3. It's more convenient to manage (well, it's more convenient for them, I have no idea which is better).
So 3 battalions is more like the norm? Let's count the honest German's numbers again in terms of the number of connections for the summer of '41. However, we take the size of the battalion, as well as the author, for the fall. We don't have his exact staff for the summer.
So the last count is: 17 divisions * 2 regiments * 3 battalions * 100 tanks = 10,200 tanks + 700 tanks in 2 divisions. = 10,900 tanks only.
Now you can choose what you like best.:
1) The honest figure from the German general is 3,582 tanks and self-propelled guns.
2) The first false figure for the state that he believed was only a battalion of 30 more tanks: 4,100 tanks only.
3) The second false figure for the state that he believed was the only one with a regiment of tanks that the honest German had forgotten: 6800 tanks only.
4) The third false figure, where in the 7 exceptional divisions indicated by him there are a third more regiments: 8,900 tanks only.
5) And finally, the fourth false figure, where there are 2 regiments in the divisions, and each of them has 3 battalions, according to the enemies of Germany: 10,900 tanks only.
Is that it?
No! Woe to me for a fool! I got carried away and counted only tanks. I completely forgot about the self-propelled guns. By the way, why does the author dislike light self-propelled guns and gives statistics on Stug III vehicles? Well, I have my own slanderous version. The fact is that tanks and self-propelled guns do not fight by themselves. They do not exist individually, they are all part of the divisions. Which divisions do you ask? Mechanized anti-tank batteries, brigades and battalions. Initially, they were part of the German infantry divisions. We can safely assume that there were at least 120 of them.
Some people say that not all divisions had these same mechanized anti-tank formations. I'm not even going to argue here, not everyone had specialized formations from tanks converted into self-propelled guns or full-fledged Stug III batteries. But each division had a lot of FT-17 class tanks or a variety of armored tractors / self-propelled anti-aircraft guns/ ammunition transporters based on medium tanks, and all this with machine-gun armament. These vehicles, having a decent engine life and surpassing our T-37, MS-1, and BT-2 tanks in their characteristics, were in every infantry division of the Wehrmacht.
What difference does it make when you bring your artillery back to its original positions and a car that wasn't formally called a tank drives at you? Such a fool will become at a decent distance and will water your trench from a machine gun or an automatic cannon. What will you do? It was precisely in order to stop such poaching that anti-tank rifles were mass-produced in the Red Army. Looking ahead, I'll say that the remedy helped.
I assume that my data is incorrect. Counting everything, I got about 60 pieces of equipment per division. 120 * 60 = 7200 cars. It was pointed out to me during the discussion that, firstly, there were no such connections, and secondly, there were a maximum of 40 - 45 machines in them. I will not argue and agree to the proposed minimum of 40 cars. This gives us 4,800 self-propelled guns or analogues of light tanks. That's about it, but no, we haven't touched vehicles with howitzers yet. The Germans don't consider them self-propelled guns. They have a gun vehicle, a self-propelled gun carriage, a hunter car, and so on. The pieces are very useful, and I should count them, but I'm already drowning. Never mind the Germans. I'm tired.
Decide for yourself whether I'm right when I see 15,700 to 18,100 cars on the borders of the peaceful USSR, with good equipment, fairly new, with good walkie-talkies, with German optics and a bunch of special equipment for their work. It's all mixed up in a bunch of armored cars that are exactly as good as the Soviet ones, and for dessert it's backed up by a horde of armored personnel carriers and off-road trucks, which the Red Army does not have at all. Throughout this riding camp, a crowd of motorized infantry rides behind each tank, and there are no questions when the tank remains unaccompanied.
>>2488283Since July, corpses exchanges were 1000 Ukrainian corpses to ~20 Russian corpses, too. It's pretty obvious that Russia can - and does - hit enemies on the frontlines at will, and then collects their corpses. Meanwhile, the biggest Ukrainian exchanges were back in 2022, when Ukraine was advancing after Russian forces that were pulled out.
What exactly makes you think Russia targets outhouses and not real targets?
>>2488261>If Ukraine is losing, why do they have so many weapons to attack targets deep in the rear practically daily?that's precisely an indication that they are losing
these refinery hits make an impression in news segments but do very little actual damage to Russia. It's not like the entire refinery facility has been destroyed. The Ukrainians have had to switch to these Al-Qaeda tactics because their conventional army has been btfo by our dear Zigga Army.
>>2488306Unironically the claim I believe is that it's not support for
nazism per se, but they wear the symbols, paint crosses on their tanks and throw up Nazi salutes solely to antagonise Russians
because Nazis killed millions of Soviet civilians.
Basically, they just like genocide against people they don't like, no political pretence intended or required. It's actually scary to consider that anyone could think "merely" supporting genocide as a concept is more acceptable than being a Mein Kampf reading Nazi.
>>2488305>do very little actual damage to Russiapicrel
>their conventional army has been btfo2 more weeks until Kyiv falls
The funny bit is that these targetted refinery raids are over a year old and there's still no anti-air at these locations to shoot the slowest drones of all time. Russian military production is laughably shit despite being so fucking expensive. Where's all that money going? Villas in Cyprus probably. Definitely not to proles' paypackets.
>>2488320>Russian military production is laughably shit despite being so fucking expensiveAgain, more rewriting of the narrative, prior to this war the narrative on Russian and Soviet military production was that it was all poorly designed, poorly manufactured and poorly maintained compared to based Nazi and NATO Wunderwaffen, that the Russians were and are cognisant of that fact and thus just built their inferior weapons for the lowest cost possible to zerg rush with instead of getting gud at science and technology and thus really they cheated in every conflict they won.
Now, that's all still true, but each unit is apparently "so fucking expensive" now. At this rate the narrative is going to completely reverse to where Russia is a technological Goliath and the Garden states are the poorly, deindustralised Davids who are just humble bankers and social media influencers, not cut out for war at all but bravely stood up for themselves.
>>2488313>further proof that Nazism was first and above all savage Russophobic violenceWhich is why Europe failed in Ukraine
It told itself a reconstruction story of Europe rising via struggle against tyranny
Completely obscuring how the east brought out the true nature of nazism. Not overturning Versailles victors, but enslaving those populations which dealt with prolonged feudalism and rule by the ancien regime
>>2488330What narrative? I know your favourite nazi propaganda broadcast on Russia1 and RT may not report it but refinery air raids are happening regularly and Russian air defences are terrible at stopping them. Again the bit that is really funny is that these sustained drone attacks on refineries are at least a year old but it looks like not even a kopek could be spared to buy new AA for the rear. And there's so little of it about that they can't move any from the front to the rear because that would be suicidal.
>NATO WunderwaffenThese Ukrainian made drones are not from NATO? They're also very cheap and should be easy to shoot down. And they have an insane damage multiplier because Russia is so dependent on raping and polluting its land to export flammable commodities.
>>2488356You didn't engage with the post at all.
The only reason to change the narrative to where
>Russian production is poor AND expensiveIs because there needs to be hopium that Russia can't outproduce Ukraine or NATO, when the hitherto narrative was that over-production despite a weak economy was the only thing Russia had going for them, but now we have to believe that they're spending millions of dollars per Geran drone.
Very little is said about how these sabotage attacks are conducted by either side, they're clearly not long-range drones (the usual claim from Ukraine and their advocates) because those attacks are carried out in number where 200 are launched with like two targets actually being hit due to EW and AA downing most of them. The major benefit of drones however is how light, compact and collapsible they are, this makes them easily concealable and transportable using civilian vehicles and launched from the field rather than from a battery installation or an airfield. Therefore I suspect these attacks are essentially smaller versions of the attack on the airbase in Murmansk. The drones being driven in a civilian vehicle to the site, the attack is conducted with little to no warning, the perpetrators then drive off presumably over the nearest border. It's not a situation that therefore can be solved by AA, but at the same time, that puts a pretty significant limit on how many drones and of what size Ukraine can use.
No doubt these sabotage attacks are successful in that the damage these drones cost Russia obviously are much more than the cost of the drones themselves, but that's not necessarily going to achieve the goal Ukraine has set for themselves here to deprive the Russian military of all its fuel necessary to keep fighting and/or destroy the Russian economy. Operatives can and do occasionally get caught. The ways Ukraine plans and arranges these attacks can eventually be sussed out. The depth of the attacks are limited by how quickly the perpetrators can escape over a border and likely how far the mobile networks of neighbouring countries reach into Russia. Disruption to oil supplies is likely to agitate more nations than just Russia when Ukraine continues to demand more support and givas from currently neutral nations. More resources and interests are going to be dedicated to these attacks based on the perceived success and therefore importance of them, relative to the Ukrainian soldiers at the front who are seemingly now only receiving orders like "Just don't retreat under any circumstances, die if you have to, slava ukraini", etc.
It's a cunning use of drones to be sure but as always with improvised battlefield innovations, it's not a flawless silver bullet they have an infinite supply of they can use to infinite effect.
>>2488261"WE'RE WINNING, SO WE DEMAND RUSSIA GIVE US CEASEFIRE NOW!!!"
kek, there are even drooling NAFO posters who see the problem with this narrative and are raging at Zelensky for supposedly being le traitor.
>>2488417Soviet policy was a response to nonsense like this:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Four-Power_PactWestoids themsleves, by their own hands, have enabled Hitler to dismantle European security net with signing pacts with Hitler like this. USSR, a staunch supporter of such a security net, was opposed at every opportunity by Westoids. Full blame for WW2 lies on the shoulders of Nazi Germany first and foremost, and then immediately after - Britain and France
>>2488426Nazism is rife in Russia. The proverb 'every russian accusation is a confession' is evergreen.
>>2488440It doesn't. You make up narratives and pretend to deconstruct them. Any simple observation of events is enough to refute your nonsense. But you can't live in the real world, so you invent a nazi dreamworld of fiction to cope with reality.
We can try again if you like:
Russian anti-air production is dogshit despite the explosion of funding from the government. Cheap drone strikes have a very high damage multiplier. The fascist regime loses income from these raids and is effectively powerless to stop it. All AA goes straight to expanding the evil empire in the western front. Russnazis get killed en masse despite this anyway, as seen in madyar's drone compliations #23894, which implies there's a huge shortage of effective AA everywhere in the rotten reich.
>>2488410"western leftists" doing some heavy lifting for banderites.
anarco-naotists can't even mourn in peace their own without being harassed by nazis in ukraine.
>>2488467Not true!!! Bandera is a national hero, and killing polish babies was an act of national liberation for Ukraine!!! And Bandera was imprisoned by Hitler
just like ᴉuᴉlossnW and Italian Social State so it doesn't count as collaboration!!!
>>2488462>It doesn't. It does though.
>My headcanon is the only possible interpretation of eventsGood day to you then.
>>2488472In the interests of bridging divides, I've made a little acrostic for you, Spurdo anon:
Crocus Hall
Unilateral ceasefires [hard time deciding between this and UN complaints]
Christcuckoldy
Kursk
Trading with NATO
Indian reselling oil to Ukraine
Nooook threats
>>2488418You are INSANE
90% of young Ukrainians, Czech, Polish and Baltic people are outright nazis. Anyone who mingled a bit with them will know. You will learn that even faster if you Are not white.
>>2488487Don't forget the Yugoslav airforce coup, that has postponed the war by several months.
That said, France folded so fast that French-British sphere of influence in the Balkans has collapsed, with every country there - except Greece - switched sides to Germany, most importantly - Romania. Failure of Br*ts and Fr*nch to prepare for war with Germany, instead of war with USSR, has resulted in Germany getting a sea-to-sea land border with USSR, instead of initial Soviet plan of a "short" frontline the size of Poland
>>2488482Thanks fam. I miss Iron Felix.
>>24884869/11 was an inside job even libtards like Michael Moore understood this from the get go. There were actual Air Force planes scrambled on that day that were ordered to stand down and not shoot so the planes could continue their journey. But if the intent is to claim America somehow lost in the long term that's not tenable either. Saddam was overthrown and Iraq was destroyed. Taliban came back in Afghanistan but the only purpose of staying in Afghanistan was to get drug production up to fund CIA black ops. Hell America even won in Syria later on when we all thought that Assad was finally secure.
NATO is too strong to fight by conventional means. We need to nuke them.
>>2488497he's more busy in the USApol thread hammering down the amerila
rds throats compelling posts to do something about the US, because of Palestine. he hate to the guts cpusanon, blames him for the d0xx campaign in which banderites harass him.
>>2488495The polaks are begging to be divided again
You rarely see such undignified and entitled people
Polaks, Israelis and Americans: probably the 3 peoples with the least honour and dignity.
>>2488462>The proverb 'every russian accusation is a confession' now, your turn.
protip: be careful not to bring in Russian nazis that are playing for the ukrainian side 🤫
>>2488520The doxxing was real, but it's hard to call it doxxing because he self-leaked so many personal details.
I've posted as him lmao, but it's hard to do a good imitation because I don't have the heart to clash viciously with posters the way he did or to drop those Westoid / Kyiv Independent headlines he loved so much…
>>2488524I am waiting for you to bring overwhelming evidence about the "muh Russian accusation is confesion", when in fact, it's the opposite.
>>2488517>>2488511>>2488508fucking kids are taught with banderism in school. nazilushny was commander in chief, and still plays a role in a possible replacement for zelya.
>>2488529excellent example justifying russian's annexation of the donbass. future development awaits.
thank you, based zigga!
>>2488540the ukrainian military was in fact dissabled. no lies.
or what do you think the thousands of military equipment in form of tanks, apcs, afv, shells, ammunitions, helicopters, fighter jets, patriots, etc. is? rebuilding a destroyed ukrainian military.
no lies detected x2.
>>2488550Please post some "Russian Nazi" pictures that rival the significance of those shown in
>>2488508>>2488511>>2488517That's the only way you can claim that your fixation on supposed Russian Nazism as opposed to Ukrainian Nazism is in good faith.
>>2488555>your fixation on supposed Russian Nazism as opposed to Ukrainian Nazism is in good faith.yet, you can prove that nazism in 2025 in Russia cuddles, is promoted
by the way,
>Yaroslav Levenets 5th picture, was the co-author of the killing https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Denis_Voronenkova fucking Russian communist who deserted and renounced to his russian nationality in favor of ukraine >In March 2017 the Ukrainian National Guard (UNG) identified the perpetrator of the crime as Pavlo Parshov (Ukrainian: Павло Паршов), a 28-year-old far-right Ukrainian nationalist and former member of the National Guard who was previously suspected in a money-laundering case. He died in custody in intensive care unit from wounds sustained at the scene. His nom de guerre was the Boxer.[28][29] The same month Ukrainian MIA placed on its wanted list Parshov's suspected co-conspirator Yaroslav Levenets (Ukrainian: Ярослав Левенец) who previously fought in the War in Donbas in the far-right nationalist Right Sector group and had history of arrests for various crimes in the pastYOU CAN'T MAKE THIS SHIT UPRIGT SEKTOR CHVD THAT KILLED A RUSSIAN COMMUNIST THAT ALREADY ABANDONED RUSSIA WAS AWARDED HERO OF UKRAINE BY ZELEYAAAA==
BWWWWAAAHAHAHAHAHAHA
SHUT THE FUCK UP.
moron.
>>2488575Call me when Russia starts to become a hub for international fascism that brings in thousands of recruits from across europe and the world in a serious attempt at building a fascist international movement.
Retard Faggot.
>>2488579it's funny. I was saving the levenets fiasco for when a nafotard were to use again the "muh RuZzIaH" ITT. and it wasn't that old, barely 5/10/2025
lmao. it's 2025, move on from the 'muh nazis in Russia' 'muh hate Russia' (because of nazism).
if you hate nazis, like I truly do, your hate is more well spent on hating the little nazi pet project that ukraine is.
>>2488664But this conflict occurred because specifically the EU nations in NATO were like
>We won't negotiate with Russia because we don't need to negotiate with Russiathey're now "open" to negotiations which is already a success, but it's rhetorical because of course the "negotiation" is for Russia to surrender or at least give Ukraine a ceasefire to resupply, retrain, rotate troops, etc.
If we actually see any kind of negotiated conclusion to the conflict that involves surrendering Crimea and the four oblasts to Russia, Ukraine out of NATO because they won't let go of their territorial claims regardless of what the EU states negotiated because Ukraine is permabanned from EU membership anyway for not having an economy of their own anymore, then that would actually be a massive win for Russia. Arguably moreso than this ending in a basically permanent frozen conflict Korea style where eventually those four oblasts + Crimea just become Russian for all intents and purposes, even if figures in the EU shake the occasional fist at Moscow with an empty demand to return them.
>>2488808EUROVISION IS NOT FLAMBOYANT
IT IS AN ORGY OF DEGENERACY AND CORRUPTION, IT IS BESTIAL
INTERVISION IS NOT TRADITIONAL, IT IS JUST NORMAL, IT IS HUMANE
>>2488807why are you yelling at me
>>2488808it just feels like eurovision circa like 2010, it's not as bombastic but it's not some straight laced choir boy shit either and it's interesting to hear artists from the global south for a change
>>2488813I know, thats my point. This conflict is sold as "le epic war of Global South vs Global North", but in reality its just another retarded imperialist war where things like "rules of engagement" apply, rather than an actual existential war for both sides. There is no actual stake here other than carving up Ukraine. So theyre fighting for who gets what piece of the pie.
So the COMMUNIST position here is call for proletarian defeatism from BOTH sides. But you have the majority of leftards who think calling for this on the Russian side is wrecking, and then you also have NATO leftists who think calling for Ukrainians to do the same is pro-imperialism.
>>2488818>So the COMMUNIST position here is call for proletarian defeatism from BOTH sides.No, communist position is to oppose retards who refuse fair peace - Westoids and Ukraine. Russia has repeatedly offered great deals for Ukraine, even when Russia had the upper hand.
Besides, every communist country in the world is on Russia's side. Deal with it, le both sides isn't appliable
>>2488817Indeed, I've got it on a stream, it's pretty wholesome.
Also it's wound me up when the Swiss claimed that Eurovision is non-political because Switzerland is neutral and that's why everyone needs to stop banging on about inviting Israel despite their genocide and Ukraine despite the fact their state ideology would murder most of the contestants.
>>2488811Because putting boots on the ground would destroy NATO. Just see the limp dicked response to the recent drone incursions, accidental or not.
Without full US, Turkish and Greek commitment, there not much in terms of an expeditionary force the EU can field.
In a full on hot war, European industry and logistics are also free game. No point holding back targeting energy infrastructure either.
>they dont even need to send their own citizen, they have hordes of illegalsYou're still not very good at this NAFO
>>2488577 (me)
>>2484939 (me)
<can't answerwhy do jannies keep this faggot around, exactly?
>>2488818>This conflict is sold as "le epic war of Global South vs Global North"its not
>its just another retarded imperialist war yes, the nato imperialist are waging war to try to maintain their hegemony
but I guess you meant inter imperialist, and then its not, because russia aint imperialist. But I cant be bothered to rehash again the single most rehashed debate of this thread beyond what I will write here.
>There is no actual stake here other than carving up Ukrainerussia didnt even want to carve up ukraine at first, it was fine with a finlandization, and economically and for their porkies its clearly not worth it in any way. It a war explicitly about security concerns for them (which doesnt mean its "existential")
>>2488817eurovision went to shit after they kept zionists, even after 2023. they had a full 2024 to learn what israel is and does, and yet the pushed it. now they got cocky.
to the irrelevance land, with the EU.
>>2489068Always found Eurovision cringe af
Can’t understand why euroaches glaze it so much
>>2488820>have you considered that Europe is simply incapable of committing boots on the ground without imploding?I think that's the real crisis Europe and to a somewhat lesser extent the US is facing. The war with Russia is existential because without the consequences of its defeat the status quo in the West cannot continue. For them the problem is that the status quo MUST continue.
The reason that nato isn't putting boots on the ground is in my view because it simply can't. They don't have the standing personnel for it first of all. Any force nato could send either in part or in whole would be rendered combat ineffective in a matter of days or weeks. They would have to be supported with huge recruitment drives, which would have devastating effects for their economies and politics.
We've got two pertinent examples of what I mean. On the one hand is Russia itself. From the available information we know that employment levels are high and wages have risen substantially in response to the war because of competition for workers but also things like the big sign on bonuses. Common western economic thinking views this situation as deplorable and a recipe for disaster and have been forecasting Russia's economic ruin from the word "go."
In the United States we had a somewhat similar sort of circumstances with the lockdown period of the pandemic. Lots of workers left the labor pool because of early retirement or things like that, but over a million just straight up died. The bourgeois response was to freak out and crack down because "no one wanted to work," try and claw back the rise in wages that resulted from labor circumstances and inflation, and kill the largest increase in social benefits since the Great Society. Their economic actions were a significant factor in costing the Democrats the election in 2024.
I think if the US were going to fight Russia in Ukraine in any serious way then three million recruits would be a pretty conservative lower estimate for what they'd need to get. They'd also have to greatly increase compensation to try and persuade people to go fight in a piss filled trench instead of trying to get a job at gamestop. We saw at the beginning of the war what American volunteers thought of actual warfare instead of the weekend warrior shit they were used to in Iraq and Afghanistan.
And this is all supposed to take place when western corporations are having a severe profitability crisis. The companies that were too big to fail in 2008 have only gotten bigger. Like, what would happen if 1% of the US population just dropped out of the workforce and stopped earning and consuming? Not only that, but what would the US do about wider economic disruptions? If it was to seriously fight Russia, it would have to massively shift almost all its economic and political priorities in order to manage it. We can see this in how things stand now, such as how almost four years into this conflict nato STILL isn't anywhere near the level of shell production as Russia. Subsidies for zombie corporations would have to be shifted to actual productive enterprizes, which could have the ultimate effect of bringing the entire economy crashing down.
From what I can see, this conflict is existential for nato. The EU has to remain committed to supporting Ukraine because for it I don't think there's much realistic choice, not if their overriding objective is for nato and the status quo to continue as is. The bourgeoisie have no alternative. I think for the US things are still dire but the circumstances aren't exactly the same. It at least still has north and south America to exploit with little consequence. Maybe that's the current plan: the EU fights a delaying action in Ukraine while the US tries to reconstitute itself, change circumstances elsewhere on the board to try and disrupt its adversaries. Like Venezuela is supposed to have the largest oil reserves in the world. Maybe they're betting on toppling Maduro, installing a client regime, and flooding the market with cheap gas to undermine Russia? What else can they do really since they can't just have it out, Ukraine is kaput, and sanctions aren't working. They can't seem to get anyone to give up on Russian oil willingly, so the only way to attack this essential source of revenue is to undermine it with a new source, which it can't do itself.
In any case the pressure is building, and if it doesn't find some kind of productive expression the only outcome is violent rupture.
>>2489168Good post
It's existential for the same reason China is. It's supposed to be the next Germany and Japan, a great power brought into the fold as a sign of the world's inevitable direction. The problem was Russia and China are not to world capitalism what Germany and Japan were.
Stagnated and reversed expansion tugs at threads within the imperial core. It continuing anyway means regression for Russia and China due to a need to divide and exclude the periphery that must be simultaneously be absorbed. The latter is always obscured by the crisis of bourgeois democracy in the core and reducing foreign antagonism with it to something authoritarian about Russians, Chinese, as well as others including Muslims. I think the West became an existential threat to itself when it defined the enemies of the bourgeoisie through clash of civilizations and other signs globalization was an antagonistic process. Democracy became more closely identified with class while with its enemies it's the opposite.
>>2488811>The narrative of "this is an existential war … makes little sensebecause the actual war in ukraine isn't existential for them at all, but the actions they have taken will ultimately lead to deindustrialization and dependency making them essentially a colony of the US.
>As for the "muh nooks"… this conflict isn't important enough for Russia to actually want to trigger MAD. a big reason for the war is that NATO undermined MAD by unilaterally by sidestepping START, INF, ABM and outer space treaties to deploy medium/short range nuclear capable ballistic missiles in eastern europe and retrofitting the shuttle as an orbital launch platform
>All evidence points to this conflict being a simple, classical inter-imperialist proxy war.yeah between the US/British and EU/Germany. Germany wanted to exploit Russias underdeveloped semiperiphery status and use their raw resources to fund its industry, but the US massive investment in fracking puts them in a similar situation to the one they had with Iraq. They dont want to take the oil, they want no one to have it, to maintain their monopoly with Exxon Shell BP. US wants to balkanize Russia so it cant develop. Same reason they are targeting Venezuela. When every commodity in the world has to be transported by petrol and every ounce of petrol is paid for in dollars it effectively works like a global tribute tax.
So the correct position for communists it support the national liberation and economic development of semiperiphery and dependent nations like Russia, which will break the back of global imperialism and strengthen workers movements even in the imperial core as the bourgeoisie becomes increasingly unable to export the domestic effects of the falling rate of profit under monopoly stagnation.
>>2489076How is HIV contracted?
How do you get AAAAAAAAAAIDS?
What the fuck are the UKKKrainians doin
>>2489394What branch of the military were they promoted to Mr G. Nazi? You answered the question of why the men weren't marching in uniform with their guns, with a video of a dozen men playing soldier in what I guess is some kind of firing range or airsoft course, so now you gotta answer the second part, what branch of the military have they been promoted to?
Come on now, you do understand the difference between rightoid faux-militias and Ukraine's militias-turned-brigades don't you? When The Proud Boys were doing wannabe militia stuff, it was merely cringe
until it seemed that Trump was addressing them directly and they were answering the call of the President, it was at that point their presence started to trigger alarm.
>>2489673NATO doesn't treat it like an existential war either.
I actually think Agent Z would, but he doesn't have Russia's military capabilities. Like, if you gave him some Oreshniks, I absolutely believe he'd wipe out the Russian government in session.
>>2489694>>2489679>>2489657I feel it was more the situation where NATO expands without consequence for its aspirants, insisting NATO isn't hostile to Russia while it is in the process of expanding but then calling Russia a founding member of the axis of evil or some shit once they're in a new country and digging in to justify militarisation, was what was existential.
If they did that in Ukraine with Russia again just petitioning for dialogue over NATO expansion and then being completely ignored, then every nation in the Caucasus and Central Asia on Russia's borders are likely to be integrated into NATO soon after as countries, individually, less escalatory than Ukraine ,individually, was.
As in, if Russia allowed Ukrainian membership in NATO to pass as it allowed distant enough countries like the Czech Republic and countries small enough like the Baltic states to, then there's clearly no reason for Washington and Central Asian states to hesitate in finally surrounding Russia's western and southern borders entirely and bringing "defensive but nuclear capable" launchers to all of it.
At the very least, this conflict suggests peaceful end-of-history expansion is over and aspirants have to ask themselves if NATO are offering enough cash and support in the likely following conflict to make becoming a US military base worth it.
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