Syria: How Turkey helped engineer Ahmed al-Sharaa's rise to powerIt was the spring of 2019, and Syrian government forces were beginning to push towards Idlib with the help of the Russian air force.
Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, the commander of the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) group, was sitting with his entourage and some foreign guests, including Turks, at a safe house in the heart of Idlib.
As the night progressed, he opened up, and began sharing some personal stories.
"When I was a child, I once had a dream about my future," he said slowly, with deliberate intensity. "In the dream, I became the Emir of Damascus."
Now going by his birth name Ahmed al-Shaara, the 43-year-old has quickly transformed himself from a "jihadi terrorist" into a statesman.
"Turkey played a practical role in his transformation," a Turkish official who met him years ago, when he was still the leader of HTS, told Middle East Eye.
>First engagementsAccording to the official, Sharaa had his own reasons to change. He needed to survive the war and relied on Turkey, as he was cornered in a territory where Ankara was his only lifeline.
His first significant engagement with Turkey began after his group, then known as Jabhat Fatah al-Sham, seized the Bab al-Hawa border gate in Idlib in 2017, a vital passage for UN humanitarian aid.
His first significant engagement with Turkey began after his group, then known as Jabhat Fatah al-Sham, seized the Bab al-Hawa border gate in Idlib in 2017, a vital passage for UN humanitarian aid.
After Turkey decided to close the crossing, Sharaa established a civilian administration to manage it, distancing his group from direct control.
Although Turkey continued supporting rival opposition groups such as Ahrar al-Sham and Nureddin Zengi against him, Sharaa ultimately emerged as the dominant force in Idlib, forcing Ankara to reconsider its stance.
The Turkish security team that previously handled the Syria file and opposed Sharaa was gradually replaced as he consolidated power.
Under the Astana process, it was assigned to build observation posts around Idlib, which required establishing a working mechanism with HTS.
"Sharaa was eventually convinced, though reluctantly, by Turkey's messages that Idlib's issue could not be resolved under the dominance of a single faction. That is how Hayat Tahrir al-Sham was born," a Turkish security source familiar with the process told MEE.
Founded in 2017, HTS brought together some of its former rivals, adopted a more Syrian identity, and established a council including other factions, granting it more legitimacy and flexibility to cooperate with or oppose Turkey as needed.
Soon after, the so-called Salvation Government, a civilian administration for Idlib, was created.
Turkey believed that a more civilian and governance-focused structure would ease the legitimacy problem.
"If we establish it this way, we can frame it as a continuation of the Syrian revolution, a defensive struggle and the protection of civilians," a Turkish official said during a meeting at the time.
>A new strategyDareen Khalifa, a senior adviser at the International Crisis Group (ICG), said that both Sharaa's decision to open up, and Turkey’s engagement with HTS, happened simultaneously, as both parties sought a new strategy.
"He began changing his messaging toward Turkey's deployment and softened his tone," she said.
"It was clear that he was signalling to Turkey because he needed their help."
Khalifa added that Sharaa understood Turkey was shifting gears, and that Ankara and Moscow’s fragile ceasefire was unlikely to hold.
"When we talk about Turkey, you have to distinguish between the intelligence services and the state institutions like the army," Jerome Drevon, co-author of Transformed by the People: Hayat Tahrir al-Sham’s Road to Power in Syria, told MEE.
"The military and bureaucracy never liked HTS and continued to treat it as a terrorist organisation, arresting its members.
"Only the intelligence branch dealt with HTS pragmatically."
According to Drevon, both sides understood they shared interests.
Turkey wanted Idlib to remain under opposition control, to prevent another massive refugee wave. Nearly 1.9 million people lived there, which could destabilise Turkey. Ankara also wanted to curb threats from foreign fighters.
"They reached a kind of understanding," Drevon said.
When Syrian government forces, backed by Iran-aligned militias and the Russian air force, launched a new offensive in early 2020, Turkey was forced to intervene directly to prevent another refugee influx.
Ankara struck hundreds of Syrian government targets and stationed more than 12,000 soldiers across the province, establishing practical ties with HTS.
These interactions gradually changed the nature of HTS.
"Turkey's influence was indirect but powerful," Drevon said.
"Every time Russia made new demands, like withdrawing heavy weapons or organising joint patrols, HTS had to comply, even if unwillingly."
Some within HTS opposed these concessions, pressuring Sharaa to sideline or purge them.
"HTS had to transform and remove radicals who rejected such compromises," Drevon added. "That was the main impact of Turkey's engagement."
>More responsive after jihadist splitsAfter the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s government last December, a senior Turkish official said Ankara managed to influence HTS "through engagement".
Omer Ozkizilcik, a fellow at the Atlantic Council and a longtime Syria observer, described the strategy as "change through engagement".
"For the first time in history, a jihadist organisation labelled as a terrorist group became a legitimate entity through this approach," he told MEE.
The key turning point came when HTS began targeting the Hurras al-Din group, which had remained loyal to Al-Qaeda after Sharaa's split.
"Sharaa became more responsive to Turkey after confronting Hurras al-Din," Ozkizilcik said. "It proved his claim that HTS had genuinely broken from Al-Qaeda."
Ozkizilcik adds that Turkey understood the division and formulated a policy to divide the dogmatists from the pragmatists in Idlib.
Over time, Sharaa's close associate Shaibani was allowed to enter and leave Turkey and to meet foreign officials there with Ankara’s tacit approval.
Turkish insiders believe Ankara shared intelligence on Hurras al-Din with the United States, which then targeted senior commanders, though Drevon disputes that claim.
Khalifa emphasised that Turkey also cared deeply about how HTS presented itself publicly, encouraging moderation and tolerance toward minorities.
"Turkey had much more leverage than anyone else," she said. "It was important for Ankara that HTS adjusted its relations to minorities such as Christians and avoided imposing a strict Islamist rule. Turkey did not want to appear as protecting a problematic group."
>Outreach to the westSeveral Turkish officials later said their influence over Sharaa helped him evolve from a jihadist commander into a revolutionary figure focused on protecting civilians in Idlib.
Ozkizilcik said that once Idlib was secured, HTS began building a small functioning state - expelling rival armed groups from urban areas, deploying a police force, collecting taxes, and supporting businesses.
"Money started to enter the province once basic security was guaranteed," he said, describing this as a key step in the group's transformation.
A senior regional official recalled a Turkish envoy advising Sharaa: "You are good-looking. If you want to die, you will be a handsome martyr, but if you want to live, you could be the ruler of Syria."
Drevon noted that the more Sharaa contained radicals within his ranks, the more openly he could express his pragmatic side.
"He is an Islamist who believes that Islam has a political and social role, but he has no clear ideology," he said. "He is more a man of action than of ideas."
>A distracted RussiaBy 2022, both Turkey and Sharaa reached a new turning point. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine quickly reduced Moscow’s military presence in Syria, shifting the balance.
At the end of that year, during a conversation at a house in Sarmin, Sharaa reportedly said: "There is little time left before all the knots are untied. The revolution will return to the pre-2015 process."
By then, Turkey had already invested in the military academy established under HTS control in Idlib. Books had been translated, training programmes prepared, and full curriculums developed.
The academy drew on the combat experience of fighters from Afghanistan, Mali and Chechnya, and became highly active. Meanwhile, Turkish-backed opposition groups in northern Syria still lacked a military school, though they would establish one by 2023.
One Turkish official said they were also able to convince some of the British interlocutors to engage with Sharaa and HTS. This eventually led to a role for Jonathan Powell - then the chairman of conflict resolution NGO Inter Mediate, now the UK prime minister's national security adviser - who organised trips and workshops in 2023 to help the group reform itself.
As HTS expanded its capabilities and strengthened its control, Sharaa began pressuring Ankara for permission to launch new offensives to seize additional territory.
For months, Turkish officials resisted, warning that such action would provoke Russia and trigger another humanitarian catastrophe.
Ozkizilcik said Turkey eventually lifted its veto after reconciliation efforts with Damascus failed and Russian officials began issuing hostile statements. In November 2024, Russia’s special envoy for Syria, Alexander Lavrentiev, said Turkey should "stop acting as an occupying power" in Syria.
"It is very difficult for Damascus to engage in dialogue without guarantees from Ankara regarding the withdrawal of its troops," he added.
The subsequent Astana meeting did not improve the situation. Russia demanded a withdrawal timeline for Turkish forces, prompting Ankara to reconsider.
"The Turkish view then was that HTS could launch an offensive to seize the western countryside of Aleppo and reach the city," Ozkizilcik said.
"No one expected the lightning speed of the operation, which saw city after city fall to Sharaa's forces."
A Syrian source who was with him at the time described Sharaa's euphoria:
"As the Aleppo operation that reignited the revolution advanced, the capture of Qaptan al-Jabal and, one after another, the surrounding villages made Sharaa extremely happy.
"From the operations room, he spoke to units over the radios as they pushed toward central Aleppo. At one point, the offensive stalled on the western front, but fighters, including some Uyghurs, infiltrated through an old water tunnel and resolved the issue.
"Aleppo fell. Sharaa was overjoyed. They turned south. When Hama fell, he became convinced that the revolution would triumph.
"In the operations room, unable to contain himself, he stood up, lifted both hands, and shouted joyfully: 'Bear witness, O people of Damascus! History is being written here!'
"Those around him later said it was the first time they had ever seen him so emotional."
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