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/leftypol/ - Leftist Politically Incorrect

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Will China ever invade Taiwan 🇨🇳🇹🇼
Every few months China does some missile test and the western media goes nuts but nothing happens. Will Chy-Nah ever invade Chinese Taipei or will it be NATO-Cuck island forever?

Will never happen but if it does it'll be a good thing

>>2619743
I Could at least picture them being closer to China

>>2619735
Why would China invade itself? Fuck off glowuyghur.

They won't. China is scheduled to lose Taiwan and descend into civil war. If they invade Taiwan it means that a different faction has taken power and wants to prevent that.

They'll take it when it's given to them.

No. Why would they?

>>2619735
>and the western media goes nuts
Not really.

https://edition.cnn.com/2025/12/28/china/china-taiwan-military-drills-hnk-intl
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/dec/30/trump-not-worried-china-military-live-fire-drills-taiwan
https://www.nbcnews.com/world/asia/china-military-exercises-pla-taiwan-blockade-trump-xi-justice-mission-rcna251464

>While this week’s exercise is in line with China’s intensifying military pressure on Taiwan, it should not be viewed as a sign that China plans a full-on attack on the island in the near future, she said.

>“I think a Chinese invasion of Taiwan still remains very unlikely,” Shen said. “The primary objective of this exercise is for China to warn the U.S. about its further support of Taiwan.”

The US doesn't really care about the 25,474th naval drill. The US assessment (maybe right, maybe wrong) is that Chinese leaders are like Russian leaders: too timid to stick the knife into the US, maybe will even send an envoy like Kirill Dmitriev to lick Trump's balls.

What's the Taiwanese equivalent to Javelins and Bayraktars, aka the NATO weapons that they'll use to blow up Chinese naval convoys on first days, weeks and months of the invasion before it becomes a trench slogfest? Some kind of mass produced, shoulder-fired, heatseeking anti-ship missile?

Javelins can be framed as Taiwan’s single most important *land* weapon because they directly threaten the armored spearhead China would need to turn a successful landing into a rapid island-wide collapse.[6]

## Why armor is China’s hinge point

A Chinese invasion that actually aims to conquer Taiwan requires more than missiles and ships; it must get ground forces ashore and push inland quickly.[6]
To do that at scale, China would rely heavily on armored vehicles and mechanized infantry to break through beach defenses, seize ports and airfields, and cut Taiwan into isolated pockets.[6]

- Amphibious doctrine emphasizes using armor to secure lodgment and then fan out to ports, airfields, and political centers.[6]
- China’s limited amphibious lift makes the first waves precious; losing a large share of their armor early could collapse the entire operational plan.[6]

If Taiwan can reliably destroy these armored units once they land, it forces China to accept higher casualties, slower advances, and far greater operational risk, strengthening deterrence before a shot is fired.[1][3]

## How Javelins fit asymmetric “porcupine” defense

Most defense experts argue Taiwan should adopt an asymmetric “porcupine strategy”: many small, cheap, mobile weapons that make invasion prohibitively costly rather than trying to match China’s big platforms ship-for-ship or jet-for-jet.[3][1]
Javelins, as man‑portable anti‑tank guided missiles (ATGMs), fit this logic almost perfectly.

- They are relatively inexpensive compared with tanks, aircraft, or large missile batteries, yet they can kill multimillion‑dollar armored vehicles and IFVs.[4][6]
- Teams can disperse, hide in urban or jungle terrain, and survive even after China’s initial missile strikes have destroyed major bases and fixed infrastructure.[1][3]

In other words, Javelins allow Taiwan to retain serious killing power even after it loses air superiority and much of its conventional heavy kit, which is exactly what an asymmetric strategy requires.[3][1]

## Tactical advantages in Taiwan’s terrain

Taiwan’s geography strongly favors infantry with modern ATGMs at close to medium ranges.[3][6]
Javelins are optimized for this environment.

- Fire‑and‑forget guidance means the shooter can relocate immediately after launch instead of guiding the missile to impact, a huge advantage in dense urban areas where counter‑fire will be fast.[4]
- Top‑attack mode is designed to hit the thinner armor on a tank’s roof, which is particularly dangerous to Chinese armor fighting in constricted, channelized approaches from beaches into cities and mountain passes.[4]

Once Chinese units push inland, they will have to move through a mix of dense cities, narrow roads, and broken terrain where tanks and IFVs cannot maneuver freely and are forced into predictable routes.
That gives small Javelin teams countless ambush points, multiplying their destructive effect well beyond their numbers.[3][6]

## Focusing on the decisive phase: post‑landing fight

Long‑range fires, coastal anti‑ship missiles, and mines are critical to thinning Chinese forces before they reach shore, but most analyses acknowledge that Taiwan must also be prepared for the contingency that some PLA units get ashore.[5][3][6]
Javelins are uniquely central in this “worst case” land battle.

- The strategic hinge is whether the first Chinese waves can seize ports, airfields, or beachheads to bring in follow‑on forces.[6]
- Javelins allow dispersed territorial units, reserves, and even lightly equipped local formations to attrit that first wave’s armor rapidly, even if higher‑end systems are degraded or destroyed.[4][6]

Other systems—HIMARS, coastal anti‑ship missiles, air defenses—are crucial in earlier echelons of defense, but those are high‑value targets that China will prioritize striking from the outset.[5][1]
Javelin teams, by contrast, are numerous, hard to find, and still lethal even in a heavily damaged command‑and‑control environment, giving Taiwan enduring killing power when the fight shifts to streets and hillsides.[3][6]

## Psychological and political effects

Finally, there is a psychological and political dimension.
Javelins have become globally associated with small states successfully bleeding larger invaders, thanks to Ukraine’s use of them against Russian armor.[4]

- Taiwan has already tested “tank killer” Javelins in drills explicitly framed as a deterrent signal to Beijing, showcasing them destroying decoy tanks.[4]
- Visible, credible anti‑armor capability bolsters Taiwanese morale and signals to Chinese planners that even a landing will not guarantee a quick victory, raising the political cost of starting a war.[1][4]

Taken together, Taiwan’s strategy, terrain, and likely invasion scenario all point toward survivable, dispersed anti‑armor capability as the decisive land factor—and Javelins epitomize that capability, making a strong case that they are the most important weapon Taiwan can field once Chinese troops reach its shores.[1][3][4][6]

[1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Porcupine_strategy)
[2](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qmzgs7MxJYc)
[3](https://www.stimson.org/2025/taiwans-squandered-defensive-potential/)
[4](https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3173029/taiwan-holds-drills-using-tank-killer-javelin-missiles-deter)
[5](https://www.heritage.org/global-politics/report/defending-taiwan-invasion-next-steps)
[6](https://www.cato.org/policy-analysis/taiwans-urgent-need-asymmetric-defense)
[7](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4IfSRvDzztM)
[8](https://www.defensepriorities.org/explainers/target-taiwan-prospects-for-a-chinese-invasion/)
[9](https://www.reddit.com/r/Military/comments/1q0fwtk/without_us_support_how_long_could_taiwan/)
[10](https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/tx2fs4/taiwan_tests_tank_killer_javelin_missiles_in/)

So TL;DR it'd be very bloody. China would have to pull off the biggest naval invasion in history, establish a beachhead, then engage in a slugfest of urban/mountain/jungle warfare with an entrenched Taiwanese force supplied by AUKUS and Japan probably.

>>2619781
/Thread

>>2620028
There are plenty of non-nuclear options China has for bringing Taiwan to a halt, but as with Russia, the ruthless mentality' is missing, so yeah, you'd likely get the dumb Ukraine attrition scenario all over again.


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