I agree that some things are not so planned as conspiracy theorists would like, but there is a very obvious case where the insurrection and its crackdown are both manufactured (if not quite orchestrated).
Propagandizing the population into supporting right-wing politics, setting up far-right militias across the country, and disrupting labor organizing and welfare programs are very useful for the bourgeoisie, it secures their power through diffuse repression. On the other hand, it can grow out of its usefulness if it destabilizes things (and in that case, it provides a third use - legitimizing the popular credentials of the government by cracking down on the terrorist right). It's clear that the far-right movement that led to the capitol riot was intentionally created, seeded, and sometimes steered by the big bourgeoisie and three letter agencies. It would have happened no matter what due to the momentum of the evangelical right. But on the other hand at the point that these people think they can or should coup the state, they're in conflict with the state and capitalist interests and need to be pruned back (or, promoted, recruited, etc.).
The third benefit i mention is also built into the two-party system - republicans start wars, democrats continue them, republicans remove protections on the working class, democrats shrug their shoulder and tell us to vote harder. If you can build a security panic among the moderate liberals and the left, you gain a ton of previously unavailable support for increasing repression and surveillance, and you can also make them so much more glad (like others mention, like an abused person) for the really limp centrist Biden.
One last thing is that the preparation for securing/building back American production and military critical supply chain benefits from pacifying the rabid small-government, anti-planning and pro-chaos elements in the government. They need a tight ship and the ability to match China's maneuverability.