/ukr/ - Russia-Ukraine War General #240
<Barely An Hour SpecialPrevious:
>>2297291—————————————————–
Evidence of the influence and origin of neo-Nazi groups in Ukrainehttps://archive.ph/44B9Qhttps://archive.ph/x1sRT#1323637https://archive.ph/x1sRT#1323658https://archive.ph/x1sRT#1323663https://archive.ph/x1sRT#1323688https://archive.ph/x1sRT#1323729https://archive.ph/x1sRT#1323733https://archive.ph/x1sRT#1323731https://archive.ph/x1sRT#1323735https://archive.ph/x1sRT#1323740—————————————————–
ALWAYS APPROACH SOURCES CRITICALLYLive maps and updates
DeepStateMap:
https://deepstatemap.liveEvents in Ukraine:
https://eventsinukraine.substack.com/SouthFront:
https://southfront.press/category/all-articles/world/europe/ukraine/Watch Together📺 News/events:
https://tv.leftypol.org/r/HappeningsviaKlash📺 Hangout/chill:
https://tv.leftypol.org/r/bloodcastWatch By Yourself>Video Essays / Historical Background📺 • Ukraine: The Avoidable War - Boy Boy
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LL4eNy4FCs8📺 • Ukraine's Nazi Problem - The Marxist Project
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4yZvWAwU5W4📺 • America, Russia, and Ukraine's Far Right - Gravel Institute
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t0pyVJG7_6Q📺 • The Nature of Putin's Russia and Its Causes (3-Part Series) - 1Dime
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o8d6Vzi7zYghttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zODWTfMwFGwhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Zuygh9Mzuo
<Current Happenings 📺 • The Grayzone:
https://www.youtube.com/@thegrayzone7996📺 • DDGeopolitics:
https://www.youtube.com/@DDGeopolitics📺 • Defense Politics Asia:
https://www.youtube.com/@DefensePoliticsAsia📺 • The Duran:
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCdeMVChrumySxV9N1w0Au-w📺 • The News Atlas:
https://www.youtube.com/c/thenewatlas📺 • Military Summary:
https://www.youtube.com/@militarysummary—————————————————–
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>>2297358I mean, he's kinda right. With unipolarity we entered a division of universal empire and shattered periphery.
Which is also why capitalism did not divide the world between imperialists.
Luka met with Xi in Beijing
>Alexander Lukashenko held talks with representatives of Chinese business circles in Beijing the day before. Speaking about the upcoming meeting with the Chinese President, the Head of State mentioned one of the main issues on the agenda of the Belarusian-Chinese cooperation.: "The machine-building industry and the technological modernization of certain industries in Belarus. This is the idea of Chinese President Xi Jinping, who, as we can see and the world knows it, aims towards a scientific and technical revolution in mechanical engineering."
>First Deputy Prime Minister Nikolai Snopkov, who is also in China, emphasized the special format of Alexander Lukashenko's current visit to China in an interview with reporters. "Negotiations are optional. The main thing is the trip, which is unlike that with any other world leader. It's a friendly family lunch. That's the main thing. The whole trip is set up for this," he said. - "The international community should take an example from friendship, mutual support, and joint development of Belarus and China, which is demonstrated by the current visit of the President. This is not a working visit, not an official visit. This is a visit for a friendly family lunch. Perhaps, the leaders of the world powers should get together like this and talk with each other about the common future of their peoples on the global agenda."
the europeans are starting to accept the fact that America is both abandoning peace talks and refusing to participate in any 'coalition of the willing' set up by foreign allies in Ukraine. Not only that but there are discussions later this year on the withdrawal of American troops from the European continent. keep in mind this doesn't mean America is going to abandon Ukraine completely, intelligence and mapping will still be provided so as to ensure Ukraine doesn't collapse, but this is the surest sign yet that America intends to leave the Europeans to take care of their security with Russia while they swing over to the pacific and challenge China
>US Said to Refuse Air Cover for Europe Forces in Postwar Ukraine
>While British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has insisted a US so-called backstop is essential to deter Russia from breaching any future ceasefire deal, European allies have come to the realization during discussions with their American counterparts that President Donald Trump won’t provide the guarantees they have sought to back the Europe-led ‘coalition of the willing,’ according to the people, who requested anonymity disclosing private discussions.Moreover, European governments have adjusted their assessment of what’s needed to deter Russia. They now believe a combination of the Ukrainian force, allied training, European troops and aircraft stationed on NATO’s eastern flank and patrols in the Black Sea, is enough, one of the people said.https://archive.ph/q8LHd>>2297402I remember seeing that Maia Sandu making some kind of announcement to Romanians basically requesting they just accept the latest pro-neolib outcome of their elections, while standing in front of the Moldovan AND EU flags.
Tragic.
https://nationalsecurityjournal.org/the-walls-are-closing-in-on-ukraine/
>Russia’s lack of large-scale retaliation to recent audacious Ukrainian drone strikes deep within its territory does not signify weakness or fear, but rather a calculated confidence in its ongoing attritional strategy.
>Moscow is reportedly achieving its core, albeit limited, war aims—consolidating control over eastern Ukrainian oblasts, securing the land bridge to Crimea, and ensuring Ukraine’s non-NATO, neutralized status—through methodical ground advances and superior industrial output.
>Russia is perceived to be “already winning” this war of exhaustion by fighting “smarter, not harder,” and therefore sees no current need for dramatic escalations that could play into Western or Ukrainian hands.I saw Mearsheimer, Freeman, and Sachs say similar (Mearsheimer is marveling over the spring RUSI report and the grim picture it paints). The attack alters little about the war, humiliates Russia at the expense of the risk of weakening its nuclear deterrent. Thus, destabilizing the world to demonstrate resolve at the end of failed negotiations but in a way that doesn't clear a path forward for Ukrainian victory. It actually seems like the most that can be achieved by Ukrainian asymmetric warfare, but time will tell.
>>2297498https://informator.ua/ru/mobilizaciya-v-ukraine-shvayka-nazval-krysami-roditeley-kotorye-vyvozyat-detey-za-granicuwell, it's true what he said. I can't think a .ua server in ukraine would be allowed to exist in the premise of fabricating what wasn't said.
even worst, I'd assume they'll get banned eventually.
>>2297515the role of russia here was just the final piece in the puzzle, the historic eastern pole of europe giving up on some european conclusion of history and deciding to join in on the global transition, in fact having a leading interest in it because that's ultimately how it defeats the existential threat of the core which must either conquer europe's east-west division or separate russia from europe - thus the need to suppress ukraine's east-west division.
sorry for rambling
>>2297515Multipolarity necessitates a break with the unipolar order so yes I agree on that, but again the Russians are definitely not trying to push that narrative as it's much more in their interests to twist multipolarity as solely competing dual camps of NATO vs. the rest.
It shouldn't be forgotten that before 2022 the multipolarity narrative was mainly being pushed by China, who were saying that multipolarity would be about respecting national sovereignty, where the global south can be integrated into the world order through reforming Western-led institutions and increased economic ties. Russia is positioning multipolarity as a Clash of Civilizations 2.0. The Russia vision for the future is inherently at odds of China's desire for more economic integration.
It's the US and Russia that want to build their own little spheres of influence now in their own backyards, and their only concern about rivals is how to best kneecap their progress. It's a cynical viewpoint that is increasingly going to be confined to the US, EU, and Russia (and maybe satellites like ROK and Japan)
>>2297520Not sure what that's based on. The valdai speeches, brics summits, etc suggest the same old vanilla civilizational pluralism stuff the rest of BRICS promotes. That is, not anti western but anti hegemony
I wouldn't expect otherwise from semi periphery states that just want to do business and fix their half reformed states.
>>2297561like the one thousand thumbnails
China collapsed channels?
>>2297530>Not sure what that's based on. The valdai speeches, brics summits, etc suggest the same old vanilla civilizational pluralism stuff the rest of BRICS promotes. That is, not anti western but anti hegemony Speeches don't mean very much.
A thing with ideology is that it can be like flowery wrapping paper that is wrapped around something else on the inside of the package. Everyone here knows how the liberals in the U.S. give speeches about how the world consistso f competing camps of "democracies vs. authoritarians" but that doesn't include authoritarian governments such as Egypt because Egypt cooperates with the United States. Or think about the American concept that the U.S. is a "free" country because it practices American-style liberalism and countries which do not practice that are "unfree," while a materialist view suggests that ideas respond to reality differently in different countries, due to different degrees of economic and social development, so different ideas are formed. So when you look at the West, you see on the outside: a universal ideology and set of values. But on the inside (what it really is) is a theoretical basis to rank the world in a hierarchy and interfere in the affairs of other countries around the world.
Now as to Russia, it borrows the narrative of a multipolar world in order to counter the liberal ideology of America and Europe. But in essence, Russia is practicing a kind of 19th-century style power politics, which also appears to be the preferred way the Republican Party wants to direct American foreign policy. Russia has sent troops to control a country it considers a satellite within a "sphere of influence," which it demands the Western countries acknowledge and respect. China by contrast has not done that, nor does it talk about the "collective West" as an enemy although you hear that from Russia a lot. This turns into a "clash of civilizations." It's okay to recognize certain differences between nations and cultures, but when it's elevated to a zero-sum conflict, the outcomes are usually bad. This is a subjective theory and very absolutist.
The only other thing I'd say is that a reason for this is probably because Russia is still stuck on a resource-dependent path for its economy. You can make money from that, but there's a ceiling compared to technological upgrades of modern industry to create a more complex economy (again, see China here). Russia became stuck, and is trying to resolve the deadlock with a military breakthrough. But Russia not only underestimated Ukraine, it locked itself into an offensive strategy against the West in general, without (so far) demonstrating the political, economic, military and culture power to support that and win.
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2025/06/larry-wilkerson-were-looking-at-nuclear-war.html
> Imagine, if you will, just to sort of set up an analogy, Mexico or Canada or any third party, particularly one that was proximate to our borders, launching missiles that hit Whiteman airforce base and destroyed B-2 bombers, or hit Barstow in Louisiana or Minot in North Dakota and destroyed B-52 bombers., or came in on Groton, Connecticut, where a ballistic missile submarine was being refurbished, and hit it. These are things that during the Cold War, we swore to each other, Washington and Moscow, that we would never do. These are things that are so destabilizing that Putin would be in his every right with regard to all the lessons we have learned, and they are many, to attack and to attack with nuclear weapons, and to say to the rest of the world, “They provoked me,” they surely did, “and I’m not losing my devices for responding should I be really provoked by a first strike.”
> And that’s what you are talking about. Never, never hit the assets that your nuclear-armed enemy needs to assess whether or not you are attacking them. That’s a no-no. Always been a no-no. No one disputed that in Moscow or Washington or for that matter in the other capitals of the world. Now we’ve broken that bug-a-boo. Now We’ve said, “Now it’s OK to do this.”
> And here’s what we did, Nima. You’re a smart man. We did this under Trump’s tutelage, brain-dead though I am assuming more and more he is, meaning his cabinet and others around him, we did this because we wanted to establish negotiating leverage for the next meeting. Establish negotiating leverage by allowing your proxy to destroy serious nuclear assets of your enemy. This is unbelievable. I can’t believe the Trump Administration has shown repeatedly since the inauguration, confirming much of what it showed in the 2016 forward years. That it is, I won’t say brain-dead, but completely captured by that element of fascistic neoconservative autocratic advisors who are moneyed to the neck, within its realm. That’s what’s running it. It isn’t Donald Trump. Donald Trump didn’t even know, watch his face, that Putin’s assassination was attempted, and that we had probably something to do with the intel that fed that.
> I will tell you this right now, I’ve had long conversations with people who know, we were integral, we, the United State intelligence community writ large, we were absolutely necessary for these strikes. My question to Donald Trump is “Did you know that?” And if you didn’t, why is Tulsi Gabbard still in her job? >>2297760no government on earth recognizes the Houthis as the legitimate government of Syria.
and Russia has reiterated that they have contacted the Houthis.
and who has claimed that the Houthis are being armed by Russia? at best Iran.
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2025/06/the-defeat-of-the-west-and-its-dislocation.htmlThe Defeat of The West And Its Dislocation
>In 1976 the French anthropologist Emmanuel Todd predicted the down fall of the Soviet Union. In After The Empire, first published in French in 2001, he predicted the (relative) decline of the United States.
>In his latest (and last) book, La Défaite de l’Occident (The Defeat of the West), he laments the West's inability to distinguish facts from wishes, as seen in its behavior during the war in Ukraine. Nihilism, a lack of values and of acceptance of reality, has infested western thinking:
<Trans ideology is therefore, in my opinion, one of the flags of this nihilism that now defines the West, this drive to destroy not just things and people but reality.
>Todd recently opened a substack where he is posting speeches and talks he has given.
>Two of those, a recent talk given in Russia (in French) and one given in Hungary (in English) make (mostly) similar points.
>The downfall of the Soviet Union led to deep psychological and societal dislocations in Russia. The defeat of the West, or 'liberal democracy', is leading to similar consequences in Western societies.
>While Todd had predicted the fall of the Soviet Union, he had not anticipated the consequences it would have for Russia:
<But the collapse of Russia in the 1990s is something I would never have anticipated. The fundamental reason why I was unable to understand or anticipate the dislocation of Russia itself is that I had not understood that communism was not simply a means of organising economic activity in Russia, but also a kind of religion. It was belief that allowed the system to exist and the dissolution of that belief represented, of course, something at least as damaging as the dislocation of the economic system.
>It took three decades for Russia to overcome the psychological dislocation that was the result of the destruction of its political and economical system.
>Todd is suspecting that a similar process is currently happening in the West:
<All of this has a bearing upon what is happening today. I will talk about two things in my lecture. I will talk about the defeat of the West, by which I mean something quite technical and specific, which is not very complex and has not surprised me. I had anticipated it, and to a certain extent it’s already under way in Ukraine. But we are now in the next phase, which is the dislocation of the West, and I have to say that, just as in the dislocation of communism, of the Soviet system, I am unable to understand exactly what is going on. The fundamental attitude that we need to have now is, I would say, an attitude of humility. Everything that’s happening, especially since the election of Donald Trump, surprises me.
<I have been surprised by the violence with which Trump has turned against his Ukrainian and Europeans allies – or rather his vassals. The will of the Europeans to continue or restart the war – even though Europe is certainly the region of the world which would be most advantaged by a peace agreement – has also been a great surprise to me. We have to start from these surprises if we want to think properly about what’s going on.
>I will discuss those surprises, some of which concern me a lot, in a later piece.
>The defeat of the Soviet Union (and Russia) came after it had lost the economic war with the West. It had also lost a war in Afghanistan. The Soviet system had turned out to be a failure.
>The West, or as Mearsheimer is arguing (vid), 'liberal hegemony', has been routed in Afghanistan. The attempts to 'liberate' Libya and Syria have failed to the point where the Western 'war on terror' launched against al-Qaeda has led to the installation of an al-Qaeda bigwig as the new president of Syria. The economic decline of the West is demonstrated by the rise of China. The West's moral self-defeat of its 'values' can be daily witnessed in Gaza.
>'Liberal democracy', the system of ideas that has for decades been the leading light of the West, has failed.
>Like communism in Russia, 'liberal democracy' has not only an economic side but is also a kind of religion. The failure of this belief system is upon us.
>The accumulation of defeat after defeat by the 'liberal democracy' system has led to a psychological breakdown, an internal dislocation of the West. This is now leading to irrational acts and to seeking refuge in wishful thinking.bigger
>Or, as Alastair Crooke is summarizing the phenomenon and warns:
<The psychological dislocation caused by ‘defeat’ may explain (but not justify) the West’s ‘curious’ inability to understand world events: The almost pathological dissociation from the real world that it displays in its words and actions: It’s blindness – for example, to the Russian experience of history and to the long history behind Shi’a defiance in Iran. Yet, even as the political situation deteriorates … there is no sign of the West becoming more reality-based in its understanding – and it is very likely that it will continue to live in its alternative construction of reality – until it is forcibly expelled. >>2297807Military summary Channel has been speculating that first the massive forest in Sumy has to be flanked, then Sumy itself.
This seems in keeping with what we've seen elsewhere recently, like Pokrovsk which they've slowly been working into a cauldron, and where fighting in other large forests has been long and protracted.
I suppose it also depends on what "the current operation" is meant to entail.
https://aurelien2022.substack.com/p/after-victory
>That’s fine as far as it goes. But what happens after victory? And indeed is there even such a things as “victory” at all? The problem is that there are no objective standards for ‘victory” and “defeat” outside what may be described as the Carthaginian Option. After all, who “won” the Battle of Jutland? Or the Battle of Borodino? It depends who you believe. And even a total military defeat may only imply a temporary “victory.” The French Army was comprehensively defeated by the Prussians in 1870-71, and Prussian superiority was established in Europe. Fine, but in the aftermath of the defeat, the new Republican government oversaw massive changes and improvements to the Army, and introduced universal conscription. The Army itself went through very important internal reforms. The populist traditions of the Revolutionary Armies were revived, and even on the Left, with its Jacobin heritage, enthusiasm for national defence was strong. So in 1914, the Germans faced a stronger, better-armed, better-led and more united France than in 1870. (Indeed, fear of a revanchist France was one of the many complicating factors in the German approach to the whole 1914 crisis.) And military defeat of Germany, in 1945 as in 1918, was total, but obviously also temporary. Germany would survive as a country, and indeed after 1945 its two halves were rebuilt by the West and Russia.
>Even military “victory” can be debated. What does “destroying” the Ukrainian Army mean in this context? How would you know when Ukraine was “disarmed.” After all, when Germany and Japan surrendered in 1945 they both still had substantial forces left. We say that they were “defeated” at this point, because we judge that they were no longer capable of “winning,” or at a minimum that they could not prevent us from “winning,” according to our definition of that state. At least in the case of Germany, the capital was occupied, and there were no independent forces capable of disputing Allied control of the country. In the case of Japan, though, it’s far from clear that an invasion of Honshu, the main island, and the capture of Tokyo, was even practicable. And if the Japanese had had enough petrol, their air force could have continued fighting for some time.
>Thus, definitions of this sort are contextual and subjective. War is not like a sport with agreed rules where you can say someone has objectively “won,” or at least is now so far ahead that the opponent cannot mathematically catch up. I don’t know what the Russians have decided, but I suspect that they will make a pragmatic definition of victory: when Ukrainian forces are no longer capable of organised resistance to the Russian Army. But a moment’s thought suggests that there’s more to “victory” than that. The other two principal Russian demands seem to be for the eviction of extreme nationalists from government, and the permanent neutrality of the country. So the question is, how precisely would “victory” in the sense I’ve described lead to the other two concessions being achieved? (As well as potentially territorial concessions too.) The short answer is that there is no obvious reason why it should. The War might actually be the easy bit. >>2297852<▪ Russia and Ukraine may resume talks after reviewing each other’s draft memorandums.As you know Russia's latest memorandum was pretty maximalist, so this is pretty much saying "next talks will happen once ukraine copes and comes to grips with officially losing 4 oblasts". Not weak imo
<▪ Putin informed Trump of Kiev’s attempts to sabotage the negotiation process.That was the same sentence as him declaring the Kiev regime as terrorists.
<▪ The Kremlin hopes negotiations with Ukraine will continue I think it's pretty clear that the only negotiations that are happening is clerical stuff like prisoner exchanges as long as agent Z keeps denying reality.
>>2297854Maybe. At the rate they're going now it might not take that long. If it's true that gains in the south have stalled because Ukraine has relocated assets there from the Sumy region, then to me that indicates pretty severe resource shortages on the part of Ukraine. And tbh this sounds like a magnification of problems that were being reported months ago, that there simply aren't enough men to hold the line as is, and there aren't enough replacements to make up for losses.
So right now Ukraine is able to forestall advances only where it can deploy these certain units, but the Russians are advancing wherever they aren't. What seems likely to me is that the Sumy front will fester until its in critical condition, then Ukraine will rush in assets from wherever it can to staunch the hemorrhaging, at which point advances will resume elsewhere along the front. The result will be increasingly degraded resources as these effective units are attrited by combat as well as the stress of rushing to put out one fire after another.
If that's the case, sieging Sumy might not be on the table because there isn't even any need for it.
>>2297863Hopefully (as much as one can be with Putin), this all moot because he's come out and said "What is there to talk about? Who negotiates with those who have chosen terrorism as their strategy?"
They can do the prisoner/KIA swaps as they did during the Biden admin without the legitimizing effects of piss negotiations.
>>2297870 (me)
Optics cover isn't what I mean, I don't think. I mean that Trump has opened a diplomatic nightmare for himself with that post:
>President Putin did say, and very strongly, that he will have to respond to the recent attack on the airfields. We also discussed Iran…lmao, it's hard not to miss the tone of resignation, if not the acceptance..
>>2297859>And indeed is there even such a things as “victory” at all?Yes.
>The problem is that there are no objective standards for ‘victory” and “defeat” outside what may be described as the Carthaginian Option. The goal of warfare and what constitutes victory is imposing your political will on the enemy with the use of violence. Victory depends on whether the violence achieves the political objectives for which the war is fought.
>And even a total military defeat may only imply a temporary “victory.” The French Army was comprehensively defeated by the Prussians in 1870-71 … but in the aftermath of the defeat, the new Republican government oversaw massive changes and improvements to the Army, and introduced universal conscription … So in 1914, the Germans faced a stronger, better-armed, better-led and more united France than in 1870. Well that's true. But wars give impetus to technological discoveries, and also changes to the economic and social structures of nations, even when the wars do not lead to revolutions. In some cases, they do. The defeat of Russia in World War I, for example, led to a transformation of that country into a new type of state, with new types of social relationships. (Which was an ironic outcome for the Tsar who declared war on Germany, a kind of Hegelian "cunning of history.") The unification of Western Europe began as a result of World War II, while hurling the U.S. and the USSR upwards as the world's two superpowers.
>After all, when Germany and Japan surrendered in 1945 they both still had substantial forces left. We say that they were “defeated” at this point, because we judge that they were no longer capable of “winning,” or at a minimum that they could not prevent us from “winning,” according to our definition of that state.We say they were "defeated" because they surrendered because
they judged that they were no longer capable of continuing to fight.
>Thus, definitions of this sort are contextual and subjective. War is not like a sport with agreed rules where you can say someone has objectively “won,” or at least is now so far ahead that the opponent cannot mathematically catch up.There is a subjective and objective side. The objective side are the material realities of war: destroying enemy forces, occupying territory, things like that. But those are means to an end, which are the political objectives for which the war was fought, and that is where it can get subjective depending on their expectations.
>>2298101I can't speak for everybody or any random ultraleft weirdo who wanders in here. If you want to me to lay it out, when the war started and I saw videos of Russia's Grad rockets opening up at dawn, my actual thought "well, I hope Russia gets this over with as fast as possible because that would be the least bad option" and then Russia tripped over its own collective dick, and now here we are with hundreds of thousands (?) of dead people and nobody can give a clear answer what it's supposed to be about. I thought Putin said something about reconnecting with a fraternal people? But if there is no fraternity, then this not-war is purposeless. Or maybe it's about seeing the border lines of one's country expanding on a map like a Hearts of Iron game. Some people really get into that.
Doesn't really propose any well-defined materially better future though. That's why the Russian guff fails so pathetically, because it has some idealistic motivations, but it lacks the idealistic politics (which is why anons are calling him Cucktin). At this point it's really some exercise about owning the libs/NATO on a planetary scale. But that's a negative (-) reason, not a positive one. Just give me something to believe in.
BTW, if it's a ruthlessly pragmatic realist argument, John Mearsheimer is on record before this started saying he didn't think it would happen because Russia would be retarded to do such a thing. What a wretched and cursed series of events. Now, I think they need to stop fighting and freeze the conflict, and Ukraine should recognize Crimea as Russian (and the rest of Russian-controlled territory, why the hell not) and Russia needs to stop bombing Ukraine, and then everyone can figure out something more constructive to do.
Of course, the reality is "God only knows." Even if it does end like that, there's going to be a massive number of traumatized Azov/ex-SMO goons in both countries who will need money, are really good at assassinating people with drones, and may be equally frustrated at how the war ended.
>>2298133what it's about is Russia's sovereignty and security, and of ethnic Russians in eastern/southern Ukraine. It's not about giving western fascist libs like you good feels.
NATO policy was to systematically overthrow every government surrounding Russia and turn them into tools of their policy to isolate and collapse the RF and impose a pro-west regime that would bend knee and subordinate Russia's economy and foreign policy to the West and turn its back on China. iow to make Russia accept its permanent role as a resource colony (gas station masquerading as a country).
Russia had to either accept this or draw a line somewhere, it drew that line at Ukraine and Georgia (and Belarus).
In addition, it had committed to the Minsk agreement as the Donbas solution and backed the ethnic Russians (fraternity) toward that end. It would not allow Ukraine to impose a solution by force contrary to Minsk, yet Ukraine insisted on just that, which was the proximate cause of the intervention in 2022.
The West then chose to turn it into an all-out war to the death to bring about the collapse and political capture of the RF through proxy war, since the RF had just closed off the previous gradual encirclement and strangulation option. It is now a simple war of sovereignty and survival. Either NATO loses in Ukraine or it will proceed to collapse and capture the RF (and then move on to China). Didn't have to be this way, Russia would have been satisfied just finally forcing Ukraine to honour Minsk, but the West had other ideas and now Russia must defend itself (make NATO lose and fail at implementing those ideas).
>>2298160I never understood why Ukraine being in NATO was a threat to the world's largest nuclear superpower.
Then the SMO happened, and I discovered that Ukraine is indeed a threat because the Kremlin is full of weak-ass cracker punks.
>>2298236>I never understood why Ukraine being in NATO was a threat to the world's largest nuclear superpower.Simply look at what NATO forces did to Yugoslavia, Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Somalia, Libya, Yemen, all while expanding eastward despite reassurances to Russia.
What part of this do you refuse to understand?
Joe Biden in 1997 basically said (paraphrasing) "I think the one way we would piss off the Russians is by expanding NATO"
and yet you wanna act surprised that this pissed off the Russians?
and NATO isn't just some defensive pact, it's basically a direct continuation of the anti comintern pact during the post WW2 "peace" (cold war). Once the USSR collapsed NATO had to justify its continued existence by becoming an anti-Russian rather than anti-Soviet alliance, and continuing its expansion despite false promises given to Gorbachev. Due to Ukraine's geography and proximity to Russia, it weakens Russia strategically beyond what they find acceptable and so they are responding.
>>2298678>>2298676Beans, beans, good for the heart, the more you eat the more you fart. The phone is attached to Putin's asshole. So the Chinese beans are strengthening/hardening Putin's heart, and also making him fart on the phone to Trump.
I don't understand what the 24 years is a reference to. I assume marriage, but I don't know why Putin has been married to Trump for 24 years specifically. I guess that implies he started his relationship with Putin in 2001 but I don't know of what he is referencing.
>>2298597the emoji list from the left aren't part of the emoji list of the right.
pavel won't sacrifice his friendship with the west, as the little capitalist he is.
also, not too stupid to anger the Russian government forcing the sizing of his assets either.
>>2298676frigging liberals, I swear.
It's rather the opposite, the fact that the US is mediator in "peace accord" in which they are one of the belligerent parts. fuck these liberals.
>>2298394banderite scum.
>>2298829Only 1 building gets destroyed.
Even when Cucktin tries to be intimidating, he fails.
>>2299004yeah he is coping, coping and seething
he just can't believe what he's seeing
>>2299263fucked around
found out
>>2298160>I just don't see why the internal affairs of Ukraine and Georgia (or Belarus) is any of Russia's business.oh, would you look at that, after years of pretending to be a moderate succdem, you went full fed. congratz, you facade went off.
we all knew.
>>2299355The sumy front is collapsing, I wonder how that will affect the Donbass, and Kharkov ones. Will Ukraine divert troops there, ?, which, along with the ongoing degradation of it's spent military, and decreasing numbers, could lead to a collapse in other fronts, or, just allow Russia to take Sumy, and eventually enter Poltava ?
>>2299341Russia's military industry is smashing records and has all the missiles it needs.
You're right that it's cope, but that's not the reason for the cope.
>>2299513>>2299527some chatter i've been hearing in recent days is they may up the SMO to a CTO. and one of the things about this is it would legalize targeting civilian government officials, which is not actually allowed under SMO rules.
there's been talk about the CTO upgrade in the past and it didn't happen, but Putin's speech the other day was repeatedly making a point to say Kiev was becoming a terrorist regime, which implies the upgrade.
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2025/06/ukraine-cost-of-6000-dead-soldiers-thousands-abducted-children-have-vanished.htmlUkraine - Cost Of 6,000 Dead Soldiers, Thousands 'Abducted' Children Have Vanished
>Busy, so just a few items on Ukraine.
> Colonel Markus Reisner of the Austrian Army just published a new overview (vid) on the state of the war in Ukraine.
> During the negotiations in Istanbul Russia offered to 'unilaterally' deliver to Ukraine the 6,000 bodies of service members of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
> Today the Russian delegation leader in Istanbul, Vladimir Medinsky, reported to President Putin:
< We proposed, unilaterally, to transfer to Kiev over 6,000 bodies of Ukrainian troops. They will be transferred using refrigerator cars where they are currently kept. We are ready to begin shortly. We understand Ukraine may have bodies of our troops as well although in much smaller numbers. But we are ready to take them over, if any.
> The bodies were mostly recovered by the Russians after the hasty retreat of the Ukrainian army from its incursion into Russia's Kursk oblast.
> This offer is a significant problem (in Russian) for the Ukrainian government. Family members of the deceased soldiers are of course pressing to receive and to bury those bodies. But acknowledging that those dead are indeed Ukrainian soldiers would be quite costly.
> The dead are currently only listed as 'missed'. If they are declared dead their families will be entitled to receive 15 million hryvnias (UAH) (US$ 1 = UAH 41,50) each (3 million at once and the rest over three years and three months).
> The return of six thousand bodies of military personnel killed in battle will cost 90 billion hryvnias (~US$ 2.2 billion) of payments from the Ukrainian budget. This is almost 10% of the military budget of Ukraine for the whole of the year.
> The Ukrainian government will have to take the bodies. But it is likely to declare most of them 'unidentified' to then slow walk the process of identifying and naming them.
> (The high cost for the budget also explains why the official Ukrainian death count is always kept low.)
> Mediniski made another point which is also of interest:
< Finally, the Ukrainian side handed over to us the list of 339 children allegedly kidnapped from the territory of Ukraine. Here is the list. We are working on it, through the office of the Commissioner for Children’s Rights. We will investigate every name.
< But I must note that, for propaganda purposes, they earlier claimed that tens and hundreds of thousands of children had been brought over here. In fact, the actual number is 339 and we still need to check how many are in Russia, evacuated by our soldiers from under fire, and how many will eventually turn up in Europe, as experience shows.
> The 'experience' Medinsky mentions refers to this item from last year's April:
< Ukrainian children deported by Russia have been found in Germany: details have emerged
< Ukrainian law enforcement officers, with the assistance of their German colleagues, have established the whereabouts of 161 Ukrainian children abducted by Russia in Germany. They were wanted as forcibly transferred to the temporarily occupied territories or deported to Russia and Belarus.
> Those Ukrainian children, abducted by the bad, bad Putin, had fled with their parents to Germany … >>2299626You know, sometimes I wish they launched the nukes. Sometimes it's worth to cut your nose to melt
everyone else's face.
>>2299794>better effortpostslol he writes half-okay theory posts sometimes. ill scroll past the flag thinking its some other multicolor and read half the post thinking yeah okay good points and then in the third paragraph comes liberalism and flattening of differences and i think wtf scroll up and realize its him. its like reading a eugene post he starts off making good points and then you get half a page into it and every other word is suddenly eugenics, except with gaynazi he undermines all his own points for nothing
and his politics posts dont even start off with effort they just come right out the gate as shit
>>2299815Yeah sovereignty isn't real lol
Case in point, Zelenskyyyyyyy was "elected" literally because he said he was going to go away from the fascist nutters and make peace with Russia and then he did the opposite
>>2299950It’s quite funny that critics weren’t too impressed by the episode despite the analysis presenting three examples of elected political leaders who campaigned via personas rather than specific and/or realistic policies after the episode aired.
But then I suppose satire isn’t as funny when it’s a prediction that feels accurate.
>>2299978The Russian hardliners wanted nukes.
The Russian moderates wanted decap strikes.
>>2299982You brought Russians up, I’m saying that anyone who thinks using the same methods as the west in the War on Terror will achieve anything is a silly bugger. Primarily that’s westerners who were raised to believe winning is strikes against “compounds” killing previously unknown terrorist “leaders”, but if any Russians think
>Boo no one cares about neutering offensive capabilities, where’s the nooks already? then they’re also silly buggers.
Ladies, ladies, you are all westoids
>>2299991>I listen to what Russians are actually saying.I think this is a dumb metric. Not even that unless you got stats.
It's like what are people actually saying? There is a lot of people saying a lot of things at any given time. It's like those "man on the street" interviews. Are they representative of anything? Or do you take them seriously? I think it's the same as a metric, which is to say bad.
Not taking a position on the strikes
>>2300007At no point did I claim I know what Russians think, saying I know where the western desire to see endless reports of individuals getting whacked while yawning at strikes on capabilities and capacity, doesn’t make that claim.
>spectacle brained<no u ackshuallySo this is just shitposting, because you can’t address the point that War on Terror tactics didn’t actually work.
>Ukraine refused to accept the bodies of the dead as part of the exchange, which was agreed in Istanbul. The first stage was supposed to start today.
>Russia will send 6,000 bodies to Ukraine. Approximately, they will be placed in special coffins and containers. Their capacity is about two meters long and 0.5 meters wide, taking into account body bags and space. Thus, about 20-40 dead people will fit in the truck.
>From Rostov, where there are special refrigerated hangars for storing the bodies of the dead, 150 specialized vehicles will transport them to the border with Belarus. This is seven times more than in previous times, when 15-20 cars were used for this purpose.
>Shamsail Saraliev, a representative of the parliamentary group on Freedom of Information, told Mash that the procedure has been worked out, and everything is ready for it, and Russia agrees to carry out the exchange at any moment. Today, representatives of the Russian Federation arrived at the border, brought the bodies, but the Ukrainians refused to accept them without explaining the reasons. The information about the exchange of 42 for 503 turned out to be fake.
Ukraine doesn't even want their own dead. Grim. At least their families will enjoy the robux and the cheeseburgers
>>2298160>I just don't see why the internal affairs of Ukraine and Georgia (or Belarus) is any of Russia's business.russian adopted slavic identity (we wuz slavs n shiet) with time turned into imperialistic propaganda (actualy we wuz >the slavs) which logically concludes to interventionism (actually you are an offshoot of us and should return into our fold)
a better question is how this is fine with holier-than-thou anti-imperialist ziggers
>>2300134Ah but that’s the problem, if they can’t identify the bodies, how can they know who is the next of kin to send the burgers and bux to?
But for real, are they even IDing the people they forcibly conscript? Are they refusing their own dead because they don’t want to be given the unpleasant task of IDing them after they’ve been dead for weeks? Is it just the optics? That they can have the narrative that the boxes are empty or ackshually contain Russian bodies if they don’t accept them?
>>2300139I am sure they ID them, but I can't imagine it's a very rigorous process
>ackshually contain Russian bodiesThey've already been saying it lol
>>2300135>a better question is how this is fine with holier-than-thou anti-imperialist ziggersNo one gives a SINGLE SHIT about Cucktin or Russian Monarchist/Tsarist wet dreams.
The reality is if Russia wants an allied Ukraine by the end of this war they will have to make massive concessions and Ukraine will become like another Belarus.
The non-negotiable demands from the Russian side are REASONABLE.
Constitutional amendment to forbid joining NATO, elimination of Fascist and ultra-nationalist groupings like Azov, Svoboda, Right Sector, C14, etc., reform of the education system to get rid of pro-Bandera propaganda and fascist mythologies, a limitation on the maximum number of military forces that can be deployed by Ukraine, and that's it. Maybe toss in a few more bones like some proper investigations of earlier events like the burning of the Trade Union house in Odessa or extrajudicial executions of all Ukrainian recruiters who coerced men onto the front lines.
Ukraine under the Russian sphere of influence will be more sovereign, more free, more economically prosperous, more left wing (because Zelensky banned and threw all the communists and socialists into jail or killed them), and more inclined to socialism than a Ukraine that wins against Russia that then proceeds to join EU+NATO.
This is UNDENIABLE to anyone with a brain. Ukraine can nationalize all major industry and collective agriculture like Belarus - Cucktin will not give a single shit because recently Russia's "free market" completely failed in their agricultural production and generated shortages of key food groups that they then had to import from elsewhere, so literally the entire purpose of this war could be considered as BTFO Cucktin and his friend's retarded liberal views and forcing Russia and Ukraine back along the socialist path.
>>2300143>Ukraine under the Russian sphere of influence will be more sovereign, more free, more economically prosperous, more left wingjust like belarus chechenya and transnistria, right?
compare any single baltic state to any other post soviet state that did not cut off russia and it's obvious what russian influence is in reality
>>2300144Belarus is the last socialist state remaining in Europe.
Chechenya is actually another perfect example for how hands off Russia will remain. Russia does not interfere at all in internal Chechen matters but merely demands that the leadership do not take up arms again against Russia or join NATO. Kadyrov could open trade deals with fucking America if he wanted to.
Transnistria is a highly isolated and vulnerable enclave there is no point in discussing it until it has been re-integrated into a newly revolutionized and socialist Moldova.
>>23001471. belarus doesn't even have an army of it's own - it's only got omon which is only good for brutalizing civilians which it does periodically by the way.
2. they work for spare change which is pretty funny considering prices aren't even that low adjusting to wages
3. the country's run like a communal farm
>>2300150if russians don't like it in europe anymore or if europeans are tired of hosting them why not just return to where you belong? they're (apparently unwanted) guests - no one holds them hostage.
>>NAZISM IS BETTER THAN SOCIALISM!!!!!!!!!not only s in nsdap stands for socialism but also ussr wasn't even socialist in the 30s and 40s
>>2300205great
not watching it
>>2300205I skimmed through the transcript and snorted at the part where he apparently says that Putin calling Zelensky illegitimate is hypocritical because Putin held a DDR residency card at some point and that evidently disqualifies him from being president. Also Tom Clancy and Anastasia (the cartoon movie) are Russian propaganda apparently.
The rest isn't that interesting but I feel like it isn't being noooticed enough how NAFO-adjacent geopolitics/military "analysis" is now taking up the ecological niche formerly occupied by alt-right/breadtube while borrowing a bit from both
>>2300220>Also Tom Clancy and Anastasia (the cartoon movie) are Russian propaganda apparently. That is an insane take
>it isn't being noooticed enough how NAFO-adjacent geopolitics/military "analysis" is now taking up the ecological niche formerly occupied by alt-right/breadtube while borrowing a bit from bothI feel like these were popular prior to the rise of alt-right and breadtube channels, because tbh prior to the meltdown over Trump and Bernie, Boris and Corbyn, etc, people’s political awareness was far more geopolitics based.
The difference being, back then it probably felt a lot more boastful how Xi, Assad, Putin are all quaking in their little booties that the World Police were closing in on them and their crimes. But after the loss of geopolitical cachet during this near-decade of alt-right/breadtubers tearing each other to shreds over how much western societies suck, opening back up to geopolitics, it takes on a much more anxious and cope-filled perspective.
Ukraine has criticised plans by Poland to create a new national holiday commemorating Polish victims of massacres carried out during World War Two by Ukrainian nationalists. Kyiv says the idea “flies in the face of the spirit of good neighbourly relations”.
On Wednesday, the Sejm, the more powerful lower house of Poland’s parliament, voted almost unanimously in favour of creating a “Day of Remembrance of Poles – victims of genocide committed by the OUN-UPA in the Eastern Borderlands of the Second Polish Republic” to be held annually on 11 July.
https://notesfrompoland.com/2025/06/05/ukraine-criticises-polish-plans-for-day-of-remembrance-for-victims-of-genocide-by-ukrainian-nationalists/>>2299794his effort posts are a weird collection of american pop culture mixed with some weird ass politics in which he then proceeds to intertwine with Marxism is a very annoying way.
and even if he had some effort posts there and there, that doesn't change his mask slipped off. what? haven't you seen papiez doing effort posts? I have. will that make ok for you that he said that the cia is da jooz for MLs?
you are weird, and you did a weird non-sequitur
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