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https://x.com/tparsi/status/1935004690208440427
>Something happened yesterday, and Trump is now determined to take the country to a war of choice. He can change his mind at the last minute, as he did in 2019, but short of that, there will be war. It is important to understand that capitulation is most likely not an option for Iran for a variety of reasons. First, Trump's conduct in the past ten days has destroyed any confidence Tehran has in him and his desire for a peaceful outcome. For the Iranians to ever back down from their long-standing position to never give up enrichment, they must have confidence that backing down ends the conflict. They have no such confidence in Trump at this moment. They don't think he will stop there. Second, Tehran has lost confidence in Trump's ability or willingness to say no to Israel (that confidence existed earlier to some extent). And Israel will not be content with even a complete dismantlement of Iran's nuclear program. If the nuclear program is destroyed, Israel will turn to Iran's missile program. It will not accept Iran having missiles that can wreak havoc on Israel - as Iran has done in the last few days. Without missiles, an air force, and a nuclear deterrent, Iran will be completely exposed and defenseless. Once that is achieved, the Israelis will push for regime change or regime collapse. And after that, as the Israelis have done in Syria after Assad fell, they will push to destroy the rest of Iran's conventional military so that Iran won't be able to challenge Israel's emerging regional military hegemony for decades to come. Iran's territorial integrity will also be put at risk. As a result, Tehran does not view capitulation - even if they desired it, which I don't think they do - as a stable outcome. In their view, their only chance is to fight back. By making the war as costly as possible for the US - even if they will lose it - they think they can either deter Trump, or make him cut the war short. As he did in Yemen. Thus, if new talks take place and Trump insists on capitulation, he will get war. Iran will pay an immeasurable price. As will the region. But the US will also pay a very heavy price. Scores of American soldiers may be killed. Oil prices will skyrocket, and gas prices in hot summer months in the US will soar. Inflation will go up. Trump's Iran war may destroy his presidency as Bush's Iraq invasion destroyed his. Iran will lose. But so will the US. Israel is perhaps the only country that will benefit from this war of choice. NEW MISSLE ALERT
MISSLES INCOMING TO ISNTREAL
WATCH THE BOOMS AT
https://tv.leftypol.org/r/StonedSiberianshttps://sonar21.com/somethings-happening-here-what-it-is-aint-exactly-clear/
>Trump continued his intemperate postings on Truth Social until he convened a meeting of his National Security Council in Washington, DC this afternoon.
>Something happened in that meeting to derail what seemed to be an inevitable collision with Iran because Trump’s subsequent social media posts only focused on mundane domestic matters, such as erecting two new flag poles on the White House grounds. I have seen one news item claiming that Trump is giving Iran 24 hours to surrender. That ain’t going to happen.
>Iran and Israel continue to launch attacks against each other. The air-defense systems in both countries are proving to be largely ineffective. However, Israel is the one who is unlikely to sustain the current level of operations, according to the Washington Post:
>The Middle East Spectator explains the importance of this:
<In most cases, a small wave of 3-5 Iranian ballistic missiles is enough to prompt the launch of about 10-15 Israeli interceptor missiles, with each one costing at least $12 million dollars (in the case of THAAD).
<In contrast, even Iran’s most modern missile, the Fattah-1, only costs about $200,000 to produce, according to the IRGC. If we assume 12 interceptors for one Fattah-1 missile (as seen in a video today), that means Israel is spending $144 million dollars to ‘intercept’ (not always successfully) a single Iranian hypersonic missile.
<This is simply not sustainable. Within about two weeks, if Iran keeps up the current pace of fire, Israeli airspace will be at the mercy of Iran’s far larger and more destructive solid fuel bsllistic missiles. Unless, of course, the U.S. intervenes directly.
>I am reliably informed by someone with access that Trump and his team believe, based on Israeli intelligence, that Iran is running low on missiles and will soon exhaust their supply. This is utter nonsense. Iran has been building and stockpiling missiles for more than twenty years. These missiles are stored safely undergroun, out of the reach of Israeli and US bombs. While Israel claims it is having great success destroying Iranian launchers, I view that claim with great skepticism. Professor Marandi reports that Iran is using decoys, which are attacked by Israel, but cause no real degradation of Iranian launch capability.
>The Zionist propaganda machine was eagerly touting alleged success against Iran early on Tuesday, claiming that Iran was only able to launch 20 missiles into Israel in the early hours of Tuesday. That jubilation was short-lived as Iran, just after midnight in Tel Aviv, peppered Israel with a new wave of missiles. The Middle East Spectator just reported:
<Earlier tonight (Tuesday), the IRGC tested an advanced ‘Fattah-1’ hypersonic missile against Israel’s air defenses in Tel Aviv
<In the video below, in total, 12 different Israeli interceptor missiles were launched, but due to the complex maneuvering and high speed of the Fattah-1, it passed through all of them. >>2338323>I am reliably informed by someone with access that Trump and his team believe, based on Israeli intelligence, that Iran is running low on missiles and will soon exhaust their supplyas i suspected netenyahu's team are obvs stovepiping pre-packaged intelligence to Trump's admin and so on.
The question is why does US assets not have countering narratives to present?
Iran is open to talks with the U.S., a senior diplomat says, even as the supreme leader rejects the idea.
Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, on Wednesday rejected negotiations with Washington and warned that if it attacked Iran, the United States “without doubt will face irreparable harm.”
But a senior Iranian official from the Foreign Ministry, who asked his name not be used because he was not authorized to speak publicly, said that Iran would accept President Trump’s offer to meet soon. On Monday, Mr. Trump held out the possibility of a meeting with his special envoy, Steve Witkoff, or even with Vice President JD Vance.
The Iranian official said Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi would accept such a meeting to discuss a cease-fire with Israel, though Mr. Trump has indicated he wants talks to focus on Iran’s nuclear program.
Mr. Araghchi said this week that Iran would return to diplomacy if Israel halted its attacks, and that Mr. Trump could force an end to the conflict with one phone call to Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu.
>>2338344yikes
meds, schizo
>>2338331Tudeh is not communist
'Communist' Party of Israel is as relevant as th KPD during Nazi rule
soooooo….
>>2338351I wish I was like your parents and not know anything about conflicts thousand of miles away from me, in which I have know power to do anything
I waste all my day keeping up with thee events and I dont get anything done I life
>>2338363Jihadists will wage war on every unarmed civilian
except Israel
>>2338367[1]
My fat ass , Journal of TrustMeBro, Elsevier Press, Boston, 2008.
https://tass.com/world/1974913
>TEHRAN, June 18. /TASS/. Iranian air defense systems have taken down an Israeli F-35 fighter plane over the city of Varamin southeast of Tehran, the IRNA news agency reported citing a representative of municipal authorities.
>"The army air defenses have shot down and eliminated an enemy F-35 fighter plane of the Zionist regime in the Javadabad area of the Varamin municipal district," the agency quoted him as saying.
>This F-35 is the fifth Israeli fighter plane taken down since the onset of the Iranian-Israeli escalation on June 13.
>According to the ILNA news agency, an Israeli unmanned aerial vehicle was also shot down over Varamin.
>Overnight into June 13, Israel kicked off Operation Rising Lion, aimed at Iran’s nuclear program. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said that 200 fighter jets attacked more than 100 targets in Iran, including nuclear facilities.
>On the evening of June 13, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced that Iran retaliated by attacking dozens of targets in Israel with missiles, including military facilities and air bases, striking, in particular, the Defense Ministry in Tel Aviv. In the following days, Israel and Iran exchanged more strikes. Both sides reported casualties and fatalities as a result of these attacks and admitted that some targets were hit but claimed that the damage was limited. >>2338378earlier today I saw a video on Youtube of Maupin giving a lecture at some institute in America on Trotsky vs Stalin, titled 'Sea Socialism vs Land Socialism', with a middle-aged/old audience.
Dude is taken seriously lol it was surreal
>>2338383tbf, they were not uncritical in their support of Trump
They did say trump aint the solution but it was more to fuckthe democrats up
Im not a fan of many of H*z's takes, but its not like he was a blind cheerleader for Trump
How much their movement is actually convincing people though, Im not sure lol
https://x.com/iwasnevrhere_/status/1935177263097466902
>What you’re seeing in the footage is not a propulsion failure, nor a mechanical misfire. It’s the behavioral signature of a missile defense interceptor entering logic collapse. The thruster bursts, short, angular, and misaligned, reveal an internal guidance system attempting to reorient based on input it can’t validate. It’s the visible consequence of corrupted telemetry. The target either disappeared from the radar cross-section through ECM spoofing, or changed velocity and altitude so rapidly that the onboard prediction model could no longer converge on a viable intercept path. The result is a spiraling trajectory, what some call a “phantom arc”, where the interceptor is alive, but chasing ghosts. In modern intercept systems like Arrow-3 or David’s Sling, the seeker head and command uplink must maintain a tightly synchronized picture. If that synchronization is broken, whether by signal injection, uplink jamming, or decoy saturation, the interceptor is effectively blinded mid-flight. Its remaining logic reverts to last-known vectors, which is why you see sudden lateral thrusting: it’s grasping for a re-lock that no longer exists. This kind of erratic drift usually ends with a fail-safe self-detonation or it burns out trying to correct a non-existent path. In the context of this footage, the visible detonation is not a hit, it’s not impact, It’s a kill vehicle terminating itself after failing to verify a target. This is what a spoofed or outmaneuvered system looks like in real-time, no catastrophic boom, no direct collision, just the quiet unraveling of digital certainty at hypersonic speeds. >>2338395>muh dead proles>muh material this material that>muh commodity production you ultras/anarkiddies/leftcoms have elevated to levels of hyper-abstraction and you refuse to come down to the concrete
If I live to see the revolution, my only wish is that people like you face the firing squad before the bourgeois does
>>2338401>you ultras/anarkiddies/leftcoms have elevated to levels of hyper-abstraction and you refuse to come down to the concrete>If I live to see the revolution, my only wish is that people like you face the firing squad before the bourgeois doeshow does that answer why iran had to kill palestinians in iraq? i love ideology and i think iran and israel are fighting for the poor palestinians but i still need my question answered
>>2338403see
>>2338401 >>2338408iran is a retarded islamist country
no one here sees the Ayatollah and his theocratic goons who freak out if they see uncovered women's hair as THE VANGUARD OF REVOLUTION
It's purely Anti-Israelism
If retarded Macron declared war on Israel, we would all be fully behind him
That's it
>>2338417heres the answer you obnoxious faggot :
>>2338403and someone else answered as well but let me guess those arent real answers right
>>2338425/pol/acks and anarchists are the same
fascists alll of them
(USER WAS BANNED FOR THIS POST) >>2338424thanks for answering
kiss your mom for me
>>2338331Is that… proletarian internationalism? between the workers of two different nations at war with each other???
ML anons are about to have a seizure
https://julianmacfarlane.substack.com/p/a-nation-of-martyrs
>That aside, the important point is:
<You’re not fighting an enemy obsessed with life and selfies. You’re confronting a civilization built on martyrdom, memory, and mission. The West still doesn’t get this. Iran’s response isn’t some reactive tantrum, it’s strategic attrition wrapped in spiritual calculus.
>This is something that Alastair Crooke keeps on saying— over and over again— I guess because no one in the commentariat really gets it.
>Iran and Hezbollah are empowered by spiritual values. “Decapitation” strikes do not weaken them – they strengthen them. If Khamenei is killed, he will be quickly replaced, probably with someone younger and willing to countenance building atomic weapons —- or maybe borrowing a few from the North Koreans in return for missiles and drones.
>The Zionists, even the Talmudist extremists are nihilistic, if not psychopathic. They do not understand such things at all, except maybe for Melman.
>Israel’s strikes on Iran are making the country stronger and more determined. Since recovering from the initial attack, it has just launched its 9th wave of missiles to hit Israeli targets, causing Israel to ban all media footage of the effects, including images and videos on social media which are leaking out anyway.
>That attempt at censorship of course is going to terrify a population used to getting a constant stream of news and imagery on their smart phones.
>Iran is steadily upping the ante. It is looking ahead to a long, slow war of attrition against Israel, not threatening to destroy the country by next week - which might provoke a Masada type response with nuclear weapons.
>It claims to be holding back its most powerful and advanced weapons, although, after the illegal Zionist attack on the IRIB news agency, it used a hypersonic missile it had not launched at Israel before to hit Haifa with devastating precision, effortlessly penetrating Israeli defenses. When Israelis come out from their bunkers, they are going to see a very, very different Israel.
>If there are even more advanced weapons in Iran’s arsenal, the Israelis should be very, very afraid—the US, too. For years, they have believed that nothing could hurt them, that they are invulnerable. Now, that belief is dying— one explosion at a time.
>Iran undoubtedly has those advanced weapons it threatens to use. It is not using them — yet— because
<it doesn’t need them, as Israeli air defenses degrade.
>it holds them in reserve in case the US tries to intervene,
<it has plenty of old ballistic missiles to dispose of
>a “long war” is to its advantage.
>I don’t know about Iran’s claims to have so far downed four F35s, but its indigenous AD systems and mobile radars, as well as Russian S400 systems have that capability. Stealth was obsolete years ago.
>Yes, this war will go on and on and on.
>And Iran is getting help….[from China] >>2338470Me on the left
>>2338474>>2338479This.
Those Palestinian babies had it coming for being genetically Ba'athist.
Thank you Iran for opening the roads to US invasions (<3)
https://www.mepanews.com/iran-us-coop-68922h.htm >>2338470made shit up nobody ITT said award
rambling about podcasts award
go back to r/thedeprogram award
>>2338477https://www.reuters.com/commentary/breakingviews/beijing-has-more-stake-iran-besides-just-oil-2025-06-17/
<Beijing has more at stake in Iran besides just oil
>HONG KONG, June 17 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Beijing has far more at stake in Iran besides just oil. China has not only benefited from importing heavily discounted Iranian crude, it has inched up its strategic infrastructure investments into the country since the duo signed a $400 billion pact in 2021. If the regime in Tehran is severely weakened or changes, China also will lose a key diplomatic lever in the Middle East.
>Despite Washington's efforts to use sanctions to curb oil exports from Iran, it has become an increasingly important supplier to China. Crude shipments to the People's Republic from Malaysia, a major trans-shipment hub, have tripled to 70 million tonnes last year from 2021, according to data from the Chinese Customs – third after Russia and Saudi Arabia.
>Moreover, Iran's strategic location makes it a crucial cog in President Xi Jinping's signature Belt and Road policy to enhance his country's physical and economic connectivity with the world. As of 2023, China accounted for 3% of Iran's $6 billion worth of foreign direct investments.
>That pales in comparison to, say, Russia's 27% contribution, but China is ramping up its support in other ways: Iran has turned to the People's Republic for "thousands of tons of ballistic-missile ingredients", for instance, to build its military prowess, the Wall Street Journal reported, opens new tab in June, citing sources. The trio also conducts regular joint naval drills together.
>The escalating conflict threatens to undermine Beijing's nascent ambitions in Gulf politics too. Just two years ago, Chinese diplomats hailed a “new paradigm, opens new tab” for resolving friction in the Middle East after they brokered a deal to restore diplomatic ties between Iran and Saudi Arabia.
>War also throws up a fresh test of China's diplomatic ties further afield too. Iran joined the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation in 2023. However, India, a founding member, on Saturday issued a rare public rebuttal, opens new tab of the SCO's statement denouncing Israel's attacks, underscoring a potential rift between Xi and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who has fostered closer ties with Israel.
>The danger for China is this could be a moment that ultimately erodes its ambition to project power in the region and one that gives rise to rival infrastructure projects, such as the ambitious India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor, aimed at diluting Beijing's influence. For now, it appears the reshaping of the Middle East may not work in its favour. <Therefore, June 10 (the date of ᴉuᴉlossnW's declaration of war) was for me what you call a great day. But now that Hitler has grown soft, I begin to lose the trust I had placed in the Axis to strangle and pull down the so-called British colossus, that is, the greatest exponent of capitalism. They are afraid of bringing down England, they are afraid because they know that with it, the whole capitalist system will collapse. […] I still hope that Hitler will not renounce the struggle, and will go all the way, to the extreme consequences.
<Stalin, allying himself with London and Washington, has betrayed the cause of the proletariat. Moreover, I can say that on this I agree with Il Duce, when he says, as he did in his speech from last November, that if there is a man who desperately wanted the war, who first prepared it and then instigated it, it is the American president. From my point of view, however, I clarify that Roosevelt is nothing but the exponent of supercapitalism that aims at the conquest of a totalitarian imperialism.
>>2338518Read the sign.
Restraint never works against Israel/America.
>>2338372>This F-35 is the fifth Israeli fighter plane taken down since the onset of the Iranian-Israeli escalation on June 13.Did I miss something? I thought the israelis had lost zilch.
does anyone have more on this?
>>2338537no. we wont know if any until after some time has passed, tbh.
>>2338538>I just don't think it's very Communist of you to support either side of capital in an interbourgeois conflict sweetieyes, you've continuously made that clear. The fact you go into a thread about the opposite of whatever faggotry you beleive on a website you don't like to seathe about this however indicates there is something more going on in your decision making.
>>2338387>Im not a fan of many of H*z's takes, but its not like he was a blind cheerleader for TrumpWell, I watched him when he was first being posted on leftypol and remember him explicitly describing Trump as a socialist in "essence" or whatever, which mostly seemed like an aesthetic fascination with the red hats and Trump logo on signs and flags which appeared socialist to him.
>>2338281>MAGA is still staunchly anti-war.I think internet echo chambers where you do see anti-war Trump supporters create an unrealistic perception of his base. The majority of them (and I think probably a large majority) will support him bombing Iran. Most of these people don't have X accounts.
https://x.com/amirhusain_tx/status/1934785834030649658?
>SECOND ORDER EFFECTS OF ISRAEL'S WAR ON IRAN Turkiye's President has officially announced that he will arm to the teeth with a huge number of ballistic missiles. An Israeli confrontation with Turkiye, perhaps even in Syria, is seeming now to be just a matter of time.
> Iran's parliament raised "Thank you Pakistan" slogans en-masse. Government officials in Pakistan have shown strong support for Iran and have condemned Israel's initiation of hostilities in both the UN, officially, and in the media. The Pakistan government has offered 20,000 Iranian Hajj pilgrims visas on arrival and lodging until the war ends. This is a move of huge significance as governments and politicians change and shift, but people-to-people contact brings genuine connectivity that outlasts the politics of any one time.
>Sentiment in Azerbaijan, one of the few Muslim-majority nations that has maintained diplomatic relations with Israel, has turned sharply. Media personalities, citizens are all condemning Israel's attack. With the arrests, in Iran, of Afghans carrying Indian passports as well as the arrests of Indian nationals on account of spying, the Iran-India relationship will suffer in the long term. That there is a strong RAW-Mossad nexus which has used the Indian diaspora in Iran and the ME to infiltrate and harm their host nations has become obvious to many.
>Cyprus is back in the spotlight after decades of diplomatic dormancy. Netanyahu fled to Greece as soon as he launched attacks against Iran. If the Republic of Cyprus is now functioning as an outpost for Israeli operations, that creates massive incentive for countries such as Pakistan and Iran to reconsider their stance and move toward recognition of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC). Pakistan, KSA and most regional countries with competence and capacity will go over their systems with a fine-toothed comb to ensure that the intel penetration RAW-Mossad achieved on the first day of war in Iran cannot be duplicated elsewhere in the region. It doesn't matter which side of the conflict these countries are on. No one will trust Indian or Israeli presence in the same way, ever again. Whether Azerbaijan or any of the Gulf countries. The blowback will not just be diplomatic. India’s vast labor footprint across the Middle East now sits beneath a lens, as trust fractures and once-silent hosts begin to whisper about infiltration. Israel, by turning civilian diasporas into covert assets, has not only shattered international norms but poisoned the well for millions who lived in peace and obscurity.
>The damage to regional coexistence may last far longer than any missile exchange. >Notes 1. Turkey to boost missile arsenal to 2,000km range – TRT World, June 2025 <2. Iranian MPs chant “Thank you Pakistan” – New Indian Express, June 16, 2025> 3. Pakistan to grant visa-on-arrival to 20,000 Iranian pilgrims – New Indian Express, June 16, 2025 <4. Azerbaijan facilitates evacuation from Iran – New Indian Express, June 16, 2025 >5. Iran arrests 13 Indians among 73 for spying for Israel – Dispatch News Desk, June 14, 2025 <6. Mossad launched drone strikes from within Iran – CNN, June 16, 2025 >7. Netanyahu flown to Greece amid strikes – Times of India video report, June 14, 2025 8. Israeli strike hits Iranian state TV during live broadcast – India Today, June 16, 2025 >>2338588Iran hasn't killed a single Israeli leader. That tells me all I need to know about how this plays out. There's either a capability or a mindset disadvantage.
I ignore the fireworks.
>>2338594You admitted that the Israeli bench is weak after Bibi.
You flip-flop faster than a fish out of water lmao.
>>2338598Good news.
You'll get a finger either way.
If Iran cucks and doesn't sink a US carrier, you'll get my severed middle finger.
>>2338599I'll roll with that.
US/Israel will pop Khamenei, and Bibi will still be alive at the end of the year.
>>2338654i checked 2nd and 3rd sources but one didn't exist and the other had an article by the new indian express saying it was fake
and i'm currently checking this one and it says nothing about azerbaijan sentiment turning against israel
Israeli strikes kill civilians across Iran.
An 8-year-old girl who loved dancing in a red dress at her dentist’s office. A 28-year-old national equestrian champion. A young poet one week away from her 24th birthday. A graphic designer who worked at National Geographic. Grandparents in their 80s.
Israel has said it does not target Iranian civilians, but hundreds have died in the violence. Every day since the war began, a new face, a new name, a new story of a life that ended violently and abruptly has emerged. The Ministry of Health has not updated casualty numbers since Sunday, when it said at least 224 people had been killed and nearly 2,000 injured, including women and children. Those figures are expected to grow in the coming days.
In interviews with more than 50 residents of Tehran, Shiraz, Isfahan, Ahvaz, Mashhad, Sanandaj, Amol, Ghazvin, Semnan, Karaj, Neishabour, and Tabriz, doctors, families and friends described the toll of the strikes. The New York Times also reviewed scores of videos, photos and testimonies documenting civilian casualties, injuries and the destruction of residential buildings.
The Israel Defense Forces have said the attacks on Iran are targeted assassinations of military commanders, government officials and nuclear scientists. But missiles and drones have also hit high-rise buildings and multistory apartment complexes where civilians also reside. Dr. Hossein Kermanpour, the spokesman for the Ministry of Health, said 90 percent of casualties were civilians, not military.
In Tehran, the frequency of the Israeli strikes has completely upended daily life. The constant thud of air defense systems, the loud boom of explosions and the wailing sirens of ambulances and fire trucks have replaced the sounds of a metropolis typically buzzing with traffic, street music and the Muslim call to prayer.
Photos and videos show rescue crews rummaging through piles of debris. A father clutches his small baby in a white onesie drenched in blood. A man bleeding from the head leans against a motorcycle as a passerby tends his wound. The body of a small child, covered in gray dust, peeks out from the rubble.
“There’s a lot of focus on the military targets but not much is being said about the many civilian casualties, in fact nothing is being said about them, which are much higher than the targeted killings,” said Jila Baniyagoub, a prominent journalist and women’s rights activist in Tehran.
Four physicians, including the director of a major hospital in Tehran, said that emergency rooms were overwhelmed. The Ministry of Health announced on Monday that all medical staff members around the country were required to remain in their posts because of the acute need.
“This is unlike anything we’ve experienced before,” said Ali, a 43-year-old engineer in Tehran and father of two small children who asked that his last name not be published for fear of retribution from Iranian officials for speaking publicly. He said deaths and casualties were hitting closer to home everyday and that a friend’s sister had been killed when a building collapsed on her after a targeted strike.
Parnia Abbasi, the poet, graduated from college with a degree in English and landed a coveted job at the National Bank of Iran, where her mother had spent her career as a bank clerk until retirement. Her father was a public-school teacher. Ms. Abbasi once spoke at a panel for young poets and told the audience that she looked “at all my life events as stories I could write.”
About six months ago, her parents realized a lifelong dream of purchasing a three-bedroom apartment in the Orkideh Complex, a compound of high-rise apartment buildings on Sattarkhan Street in central Tehran. On Friday morning, the building collapsed after it was hit by an Israeli missile.
Tara Hajimiri, 8, loved folk dance and gymnastics. A video of her wearing a red dress as she danced her way into the chair at her dentist’s office went viral on social media. She and 60 residents were killed in a massive strike on an apartment building on Patrice Lumumba Street on Saturday.
Reza, a 59-year-old computer engineer, said that his aunt and uncle, a couple in their 80s, were killed in an airstrike while they were sleeping on Saturday night. The force of the explosion toppled the building, he said.
The damage to the building was so extensive that rescue workers have not yet retrieved the bodies. The family was informed to consider the couple dead. Reza said the couple’s adult children go to the site every day, waiting for the bodies to be pulled from the rubble.
Saleh Bayrami, a veteran graphic designer for magazines like National Geographic and media companies, was driving home from a meeting on Sunday. He stopped at a red light at Quds Square, near the bustling Tajrish market outside Tehran. An Israeli missile landed on a major sewage pipe in the square, exploded into a ball of fire and killed him, according to colleagues and news reports.
Mehdi Poladvand, a 27-year-old member of a youth equestrian club and a national champion, spent the last day of his life on Friday at a racetrack in Karaj competing in a race.
Iranian news media described him as a rising talent who had won numerous championship titles in provincial competitions and national cups. He was killed along with his parents and sister when their apartment building was struck by an Israeli missile, his friend Arezou Malek, a fellow equestrian, told local Iranian media.
At cemeteries across Iran, somber funeral services are being held daily, sometimes as missiles fly overhead. The coffin of Niloufar Ghalehvand, 32, a Pilates instructor, was covered with the flag of Iran, according to videos shared on social media by the sporting club where she worked. A small crowd wearing black can be seen standing around the coffin.
>>2338733I could never give a shit about the USS Oklahoma or whatever the fuck because only chuds give a shit about it and there are so many other false flags and sneak attacks the US did in history, it feels nice whenever US soldiers die
Hopefully Iran wipes out both of us
>>2338747u sound angry af
touch grass, psycho
>>2338751Cuckler is right that Iran didn't want defense cooperation.
(…the reason is that Israel installed its lib puppet after that helicopter incident… decap strikes work!)
>>2338741>>2338743I guess Lenin was smart to keep the war defensive & local and not claiming to fight Berlin and Washington
But then again Lenin lead a DOTP not an imperialist power struggling to save its regional foothold and investments
>>2338775US isn't even attacking yet.
>>2338774On the one hand, it's sectarianism. On the other hand, they're pseudo-ultras, not actual communists of any kind.
>>2338751I don’t mean to keep hitting this point but just because the U.S. media says there is an Axis of Evil that includes all of these countries in some alliance doesn’t mean that there is such a thing in reality. This is rhetoric meant to confused Americans and imagine threats and enemies where there are none.
Iran and Russia have a somewhat closer relationship, but Iran and China and quite standoffish. We shouldn’t expect them to act as allies and I can’t imagine Iran expected then to.
It’s not terribly bad for China if something happens to Iran. On the contrary, they (debatably) benefit from the U.S. expending capacity on a war and redirecting resources to MENA and CENTCOM. They absolutely would have benefited clearly if this war had happened during Trump 1. And now they still stand to have similar advantages. It’s unlikely they will enter in any serious capacity.
When thinking about this “alliance” consider the opposite case where the U.S. was entering a war with China over Taiwan. Would we expect Iran to be joining on China’s side? I really really doubt it.
>>2338773They'd likely spam dozens of them if they have them.
But my immediate concern would be an upgraded weapon that can close the distance. Or even the weapon depicted but with structural laxness on Iran's part.
>>2338793Decap strikes work.
Demoralization attacks work.
>>2338364>FIZZLEUS MAXIMUS>the non-happening continues>the mayans were right, the calendar truly stops at 2012We believe in some obscure prophecy now?
>>2338369>Excuse me? The calendar truly stopped in 1991.Too bad, he stated differently afterwards
https://marxist.com/fukuyama-s-second-thoughts-socialism-ought-to-come-back.htm >>2338796If they work then why is Iran still fighting and why is Israel begging for US to save its ass.
Is it not clear that Israel will absolutely lose without US intervention? That’s why everyone says it must be inevitable.
But if Israel could win by decapitation they would have won. But they’re actually almost certain to lose now (without intervention)
>>2338826Their intentions are known.
The planes they'll be using are known.
They've given plenty of time and warning.
If Iran and its friends can't make this attack fail, then I'll just have to conclude that they like losing.
>>2338811it depends. they did work pretty well with both Hez and Iran, with Hez because Nasrallah was very important to the movement and Israel also decap'd multiple leadership and replacements, which degraded the group significantly, while not fatally.
With Iran they killed a somewhat more hardline president and got a lib capitulator instead (i'm assuming the helicopter "accident" was not really an accident of course). This did push Iran more towards de-escalation and falling into the US negotiation trap, and away from stronger defense cooperation with Russia or China (because it might undermine negotiation with the US).
I suspect you're responding to a cucktn-poster from /ukr/ as this is a long-running theme there for them. With Ukraine i think decap strikes would not be nearly as effective, unless they were really sweeping, near total. They were effective Iran because Iran is more of a democracy than Ukraine is. A new election could bring some significant policy direction change, while in Ukraine it really can't. If you cap zelensky you can only get another euromaidanite/banderite firmly commited to nato policy, because everyone else is defined as either Russian or Communist or whatever and banned from politics. So you cap zelensky you just get another clone with the same policy.
>>2338830>The planes they'll be using are known.Yeah, and that's the scary part. Nobody has ever shot down a B-2, and they're not going to fly it without support, distractions, and heavily reduced air defense quality. This isn't going to be a lone plane dropping a lone bomb, this is going to look more like an alien invasion.
The most frustrating part to me is that China has a perverse incentive to not assist Iran, because they need to see what an American attack would actually look like. Russia has no excuse, Putin is just a cuck.
>>2338845>The most frustrating part to me is that China has a perverse incentive to not assist Iran, because they need to see what an American attack would actually look likejesse what the fuck are you talking about
If anything, the Chinese would benefit from assisting and making the situation more relevant to their own capabilities, but somehow this seems like a stupid premise since the Chinese probably care more about the US control over the trade belt than some fuckin battle observation.
>>2338870>Iran and China are not allies, Iran would provide no military support to ChinaNot disagreeing with the first part, but there are historical examples of them assisting. Consider ~2010 when Iran discovered a way to identify CIA covert channels and told China, who proceeded to execute dozens of CIA assets. I know they are not allies, but they have a mutual interest in USA's fall, and I'd assume the USA is seen as the bigger threat by each of them.
I also understand China has some incentive to keep out, they like their 'do nothing, keep rising' distance.
> The warning issued moments ago by the Israeli enemy regarding the apparent intended attack against the heavy water reactor containing depleted plutonium fuel in Arak:34.369243, 49.240722
<https://nitter.poast.org/ME_Observer_/status/1935514952384790559Looks like it might be starting
>>2338891>muh strong leadershut the fuck up
please just shut the fuck up and read a book. i am begging you.
>>2338907 (me)
>Israel has spared in UkraineI was going to correct myself, but I just noticed that 'Ukraine' contains the letters of 'Iran' in it. Fitting with the parallel "strategies" of both.
I don't know if this has been mentioned before, but it should. The hubris of the USA knows no bounds. And they already wargamed a war on Iran and lost. Badly.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennium_Challenge_2002Millennium Challenge 2002<Micah Zenko November 5, 2015https://warontherocks.com/2015/11/millennium-challenge-the-real-story-of-a-corrupted-military-exercise-and-its-legacy/Since the infamous Millennium Challenge 2002 (MC ’02) concept-development exercise, run by the now-defunct U.S. Joint Forces Command (JFCOM), was leaked in the press 13 years ago, strong opinions have been expressed about its failure and lessons. When it was conducted, this exercise was the most ambitious and costly military simulation in American history. It pitted the U.S. military (with capabilities projected five years into the future) against a nameless potential adversary, with outcome intended to inform future strategy and procurement decisions. Controversy immediately arose when the opposition force, or red team, learned that the results were scripted to assure that the U.S. forces would win. Writing in September 2002, New York Times columnist Nicholas Kristof warned that it “should teach us one clear lesson relating to Iraq: Hubris kills.” (In that same column, Kristof admitted “I’m a wimp on Iraq: I’m in favor of invading, but only if we can win easily.”) MC ’02 was later popularized in Malcolm Gladwell’s 2005 book, Blink: The Power of Thinking Without Thinking, where the leader of the red team opposition force (OPFOR), retired Marine Corps three-star Paul Van Riper was praised for having “created the conditions for successful spontaneity” with a decision-making style that “enables rapid cognition.” More recently, a Marine Corps Gazette essay proclaimed that “JFCOM controllers changed the scenario” of MC ’02 and that the command “failed to understand the utility of the exercise and the feedback it provided.”
These perspectives are misleading, and generally told from one person’s view: Van Riper’s. Moreover, they lack important historical context and alternative perspectives about why the shortcomings of MC ’02 were inevitable, given congressionally required demands, misunderstandings of objectives, and unclear (and shifting) lines of authority. Furthermore, a more comprehensive account provides insights for how the military should think about, design, and conduct red team simulations. This article, adapted from my book, Red Team: How to Succeed by Thinking Like the Enemy, provides this more complete account as it is based upon interviews with most of the relevant senior officials, as well as the MC ’02 after-action report, which was only made public in 2010.
MC ’02 was intended to be the largest, most expensive, and most elaborate concept-development exercise in U.S. military history. The exercise was mandated by Congress to “explore critical war fighting challenges at the operational level of war that will confront United States joint military forces after 2010.” Developed over two years at a cost of $250 million, it would grow to include 13,500 service members participating from 17 simulation locations and nine live-force training sites. It was promoted by Pentagon officials as a demonstration of “leap-ahead technologies,” and was intended to provide commanders with “dominant battle space knowledge” to conduct “rapid decisive operations” against future adversaries.
These untested war-fighting theories, however, including many aspects of the “revolution in military affairs,” existed only in the PowerPoint presentations and minds of defense intellectuals and senior Pentagon officials. MC ’02 would put them to the test over the course of three weeks in the summer of 2002. It was considered such an important event that then Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld himself visited JFCOM headquarters to endorse the exercise:
>MC02, as I’m told it’s called — sounds like fizz water in the old days … will help us create a force that is not only interoperable, responsive, agile and lethal, but one that is capable of capitalizing on the information revolution and the advanced technologies that are available today.JFCOM Commander Gen. Buck Kernan summarized what was expected: “MC ’02 is the key to military transformation.”
The featured activity of MC ’02 would be a red team war-game simulation. The hypothetical joint experiment would feature an anti-access, area-denial scenario that was situated in the world of 2007, pitting a U.S. blue team of 350 personnel led by Army Lt. Gen. B. B. Bell against an OPFOR of 90 personnel modeling an adversary, and initially led by Van Riper. Kernan personally selected Van Riper to lead the OPFOR, believing that, since he was a “devious sort of guy” and “a no-nonsense solid professional warfighter,” he was the best possible candidate. The OPFOR, widely understood to represent Iraq or Iran’s military, had a carefully prepared campaign plan, for which the ultimate objective was to preserve the red team’s ruling regime and reduce the presence of blue forces in the region. The blue team also had a campaign plan, which included securing shipping lanes, eliminating the OPFOR’s weapons of mass destruction facilities, and compelling the red ruling regime to abandon its goal of regional hegemony. To most participants, MC ’02 resembled much of the “Running Start” plan that U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) planners were developing and refining in the summer of 2002 to disarm Saddam Hussein and remove him from power.
Van Riper had participated in previous war games for JFCOM, including the previous year’s Unified Vision 2001 exercise in which he played the role of a landlocked regional power. At one crucial engagement during Unified Vision 2001, Van Riper was informed by the white cell, or “control,” overseeing the game that the United States had destroyed all 21 of the red team’s deeply buried ballistic missiles, even though the blue team commander never actually knew where they were located. It was simply assumed that in the future the United States would have the real-time radar and sensor capabilities to eliminate them. After the Unified Vision 2001 exercise, JFCOM provided a report to Congress that claimed that the exercise had corroborated the effects-based operations concepts. When Van Riper complained that that was untrue, he was promised, regarding MC ’02, that “next year will be a free play and honest exercise.” On the eve of MC ’02, Kernan even declared: “We have a very, very determined OPFOR, both live and simulation. … this is free play. The OPFOR has the ability to win here.”
This did not mean that MC ’02 was designed without constraints. It is common for military simulations to test concepts that will inform future personnel, training, and procurement decisions. For example, there was only a 36-hour window during which the live-fire, forced-entry component of the experiment was to occur. The participating forces — including from the 82nd Airborne Division and 1st Marine Regiment — had been called off their normal training schedules, and would only be used in conjunction with the computer-simulated maneuvers during that window. Also, both sides were permitted to reposition their forces at night, during which time neither could initiate attack. But most notably, while the OPFOR was supposed to use only a limited set of military capabilities that it was projected to have in 2007, the blue forces were allowed to have command-and-control relationships, communication networks, and military capabilities that the Pentagon did not plan to field until well beyond 2007, including the airborne laser. The white cell was the architect and manager of the exercise, and also monitored events, assessed the impacts of various actions, and provided feedback to the blue and OPFOR teams. The white cell, led by retired Army Gen. Gary Luck, also had the authority to intervene in order to ensure fair play and to verify that all the concepts were tested under the exercise’s resource and time constraints.
At the start of MC ’02, to fulfill the forced-entry requirement, blue issued red an eight-point ultimatum, of which the final point was surrender. Red team leader Van Riper knew his country’s political leadership could not accept this, which he believed would lead the blue forces to directly intervene. Since the George W. Bush administration had recently announced the “preemption doctrine,” Van Riper decided that as soon as a U.S. Navy carrier battle group steamed into the Gulf, he would “preempt the preemptors” and strike first. Once U.S. forces were within range, Van Riper’s forces unleashed a barrage of missiles from ground-based launchers, commercial ships, and planes flying low and without radio communications to reduce their radar signature. Simultaneously, swarms of speedboats loaded with explosives launched kamikaze attacks. The carrier battle group’s Aegis radar system — which tracks and attempts to intercept incoming missiles — was quickly overwhelmed, and 19 U.S. ships were sunk, including the carrier, several cruisers, and five amphibious ships. “The whole thing was over in five, maybe ten minutes,” Van Riper said.
The red team had struck a devastating blow against the blue team. The impact of the OPFOR’s ability to render a U.S. carrier battle group — the centerpiece of the U.S. Navy — militarily worthless stunned most of the MC ’02 participants. Van Riper described the mood as “an eerie silence. Like people didn’t really know what to do next.” Blue team leader Bell admitted that the OPFOR had “sunk my damn navy,” and had inflicted “an extremely high rate of attrition, and a disaster, from which we all learned a great lesson.”
Meanwhile, Kernan received an urgent phone call from Luck: “Sir, Van Riper just slimed all of the ships.” Kernan recognized that this was bad news because it placed at risk JFCOM’s ability to fulfill the remaining live-fire, forced-entry component of the exercise — a central component of MC ’02. The actual forces were awaiting orders at Fort Bragg, off the coast of San Diego, and at the Fort Irwin National Training Center. Kernan recalled, “I didn’t have a lot of choice. I had to do the forcible entry piece.” He directed the white cell to simply refloat the virtual ships to the surface. Bell and his blue team — now including the live-fire forces operating under his direction — applied the lessons from the initial attack and fended off subsequent engagements from the red team.
Van Riper’s red team prepared itself for an amphibious assault by the Marines. He knew that the first wave would include the V-22 Osprey, a multi-mission, tilt-rotor aircraft that the Marines had in the pipeline but would not actually field for another five years. The V-22’s twin 38-foot propellers gave the transport aircraft a notoriously large identifiable radar signature that could easily be identified and tracked with crude radars and surface-to-air missiles. The red team was ready to begin shooting down the V-22s when Van Riper’s chief of staff received a message from the white cell. Hostile fire against the V-22s or blue’s C-130 troop transport planes was forbidden. The white cell also directed the chief of staff that the red team had to position its air defense assets out in the open so the blue forces could easily destroy them. Even after some were not destroyed, the red team was forbidden to fire upon blue forces as they conducted a live airborne drop. Van Riper asked the white cell if his forces could at least deploy the chemical weapons that he possessed, but he was again denied.
Van Riper was furious. Not only had the white cell’s instructions compromised the integrity of the entire process, but also his own chief of staff — a retired Army colonel — was receiving conflicting orders about how his force should be deployed. When Van Riper went to Kernan to complain, he was told: “You are playing out of character. The OPFOR would never have done what you did.” Van Riper subsequently gathered the red team and told them to follow the chief of staff’s orders. The independence that he believed a red team must be granted to do its job had been corrupted. Six days into the exercise, he stepped down as commander and served as an advisor for the remaining 17 days. During that time, the blue team achieved most of its campaign plan objectives by destroying the OPFOR air and naval forces, securing the shipping lanes, and capturing or neutralizing the red regime’s WMD assets. The OPFOR was capable of partially preserving the red regime, but it was substantially weakened and its regional influence was much diminished.
Van Riper was not willing to let the matter drop. He wrote up a report detailing the numerous shortcomings of the war game, how it was controlled, and how the exercise could lead the Pentagon to have misplaced confidence in still-untested military war-fighting concepts. He handed six hard copies of the report to senior JFCOM leaders, but never received any feedback. However, unlike the other concept-development exercises, Van Riper believed that MC ’02 was both scripted and carried out in a way that did not realistically reflect likely future U.S. military capabilities or the threats posed by a thinking, motivated adversary. As he recalled: “War-gaming is not normally corrupted, but this whole thing was prostituted; it was a sham intended to prove what they wanted to prove.”
Before MC ’02 even ended, Van Riper e-mailed several colleagues with his concerns about the exercise. He believed that what had happened was going to leak to the media because so many of his OPFOR colleagues were irate. “What I didn’t want to see happen was JFCOM putting out another press release with my name on it,” as it had done after the previous year’s Unified Vision 2001, “validating a concept that had failed.” Not unexpectedly, Van Riper’s e-mail was immediately leaked to the Army Times, which published a comprehensive account: “Fixed war games? General says Millennium Challenge 02 was ‘scripted.’”
The reaction to the leak was swift. Senior JFCOM and Pentagon officials were livid that the retired lieutenant general had blown the whistle on MC ’02. They emphasized in press conferences that every major concept had been validated (there were 11 in total), while discounting what the OPFOR had been able to pull off. Kernan, who called Van Riper “a pretty slick fellow,” claimed that the exercise was not about winning or losing, despite contrary statements he had made weeks earlier. Kernan also admitted: “You [have] got to be careful about the word ‘free play.’ And I used it, and I wished I hadn’t.” Vice Adm. Martin Mayer, Kernan’s deputy, claimed, “I want to disabuse anybody of any notion that somehow the books were cooked.” Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Peter Pace declared flatly, “I absolutely believe that it was not rigged.”
Yet, JFCOM itself later concluded the opposite. The final JFCOM report on MC ’02 ran 752 pages long and was not released to the public for 10 years. The report detailed how the OPFOR had initially caught the blue team off guard, in large part because the blue team stuck closely to well-known and practiced U.S. military tactics. Moreover, to the extent that the blue team was perceived to be the winner, it was predominantly due to its quantitatively and qualitatively superior military capabilities. Meanwhile, the report admitted significant limitations and artificialities that were built into the war game. It also details the unexpected shifts in the rules of engagement early on. According to the report, “These changes brought about some confusion and potentially provided the blue team operational advantages.”
Finally, the JFCOM report explicitly acknowledged:
>As the exercise progressed, the OPFOR free-play was eventually constrained to the point where the end state was scripted. This scripting ensured a blue team operational victory and established conditions in the exercise for transition operations.In essence, the white cell determined that once the experiment was scheduled to end, the blue team would be allowed to win.
>>2338913 (cont)
As a red teaming exercise, MC ’02 was destined to experience shortcomings. Both the red team and the targeted institution had preconceived objections going into the exercise. Van Riper thought that the untested concepts and misplaced faith in then-nonexistent technologies were dangerous and unnecessarily risky for the military to pursue. Beyond being a prominent skeptic of the ongoing revolution in military affairs, he believed that some of these untested concepts would be utilized soon in the invasion of Iraq. Van Riper’s red team set out to win outright, and thereby demonstrate the shortcomings of these concepts. Moreover, he doubted whether the red teaming process itself would be faithful to the principles of fair play that he had been promised by JFCOM, which, only three years old at the time, had a reputation for conducting unrealistic and scripted concept-development exercises.
JFCOM and the Office of the Secretary of Defense were determined to validate the principles and concepts that would support the advanced technological military transformation that Rumsfeld and his senior aides had been insisting upon.
Most importantly, MC ’02 had a positive effect on many of the key participants. Bell described it as “a watershed ‘eureka’ moment in the application of red teaming.” He believed that Van Riper did exactly what he was supposed to do by attacking the blue forces “a-doctrinally” — meaning in a manner that JFCOM was totally unprepared for — and that everybody learned from the results. Soon after MC ’02, Bell was promoted to four-star general: “The military and civilian leadership must have figured out that, after the significant butt-kicking I had experienced, I must have learned something.” Bell became one of the most outspoken proponents of red teaming, and estimates that he directed the formation of at least 20 distinct red teams while in command positions in Europe and on the Korean Peninsula.
However, a different enduring impact was in the minds of the senior military officials who were deployed from the United States to Afghanistan and Iraq or provided support in the years that followed MC ’02. There, the inherently messy realities of combat negated the aspirational acronyms that conceptual development exercises were supposed to prove. Even during MC ’02, Kernan recalled that many of the participants were understandably more focused on getting ready to go to war than on the exercise, which probably harmed the process itself. “I told Rumsfeld afterwards, ‘If you want to do this again, you have to properly resource it, and if national priorities change, you have to be willing to scrub it.’” Yet Rumsfeld and other senior Pentagon officials were unable or unwilling to hear the bad news that came out of the exercise.
MC ’02 has become a shorthand reference for denigrating the cutting-edge and unrealistic notions of military transformation that characterized the Rumsfeld era. A concept-development exercise that was intended to socialize the military around the inevitability of a leap-ahead, futuristic transformation ultimately left precisely the opposite impression. That it required a $250-million red team simulation, and a motivated and justifiably angered former general officer, to make this apparent, suggests that it was a highly useful experiment after all.
>>2338905apparently they think their S300 equivalent is good enough
https://militarywatchmagazine.com/article/iran-mod-why-no-need-s400si think there is something also about integration, like they have their own system and adopting S400 would mean revamping the whole thing where the S300 can sorta plug and play ?
They also say the upgraded 373 is as good as S400 and the new interceptors are on par with russia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bavar-373https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sayyad_(missile) >>2338921https://militarywatchmagazine.com/article/israel-missile-defence-increasingly-depleted-iranIsrael’s Missile Defence Arsenal Depleted After Just Five Days of Iranian Strikes
>The Israel Defence Forces’ arsenal of Arrow anti-ballistic missiles is running increasingly thin, with longstanding suspicions regarding the state of the broader Israeli air defence arsenal having been confirmed by a U.S. official who spoke to the Wall Street Journal. After just five days of hostilities with Iran, which Israel initiated in June 13 with the launch of major air strikes against a range of targets in the country, the seriousness of missile defence shortages threatens to allow Iranian ballistic missiles to strike Israeli targets with growing success. On June 17 a separate source briefed on U.S. and Israeli intelligence cited by the the Washington Post noted that“the system is already overwhelmed,” and that Israeli air defences would need to be more selective regarding prioritising interceptions in future. Analysts have widely concluded that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps has the ability to significantly escalate the scale of strikes on Israeli targets, and to begin to employ more advanced missile classes with greater success rates evading interception. The Corps on June 18 launched its first ever strike using the new Fattah ballistic missile, which is expected to be effectively impossible to intercept due to its use of a hypersonic glide vehicle.
>Israeli missile defence systems have proven to have struggled to intercept attacks launched using even relatively basic ballistic missile classes, such as those launched by Ansurullah Coalition forces in Yemen. This has placed their ability to intercept medium or high end Iranian missiles into serious question. Israeli shortages of anti-ballistic missiles was already a serious issue by mid-2024, with continued ballistic missile attacks from Yemen, two large scale strikes from Iran in April and September, and to a lesser extent strikes by the Lebanese paramilitary group Hezbollah, having depleted the arsenal. Successful efforts by Hezbollah to specifically target Israeli missile defence assets reportedly worsened the situation. These shortages led the United States to play a greater role in the defence of Israeli territory from missile attacks, with the U.S. Armed Forces as a result having also seen its arsenals of anti-ballistic missiles placed under growing strain due to the deployment of U.S. Army THAAD and U.S. Navy AEGIS systems to protect Israel.
>Pressure on Israeli missile defences were alleviated in December 2024 by the fall of Syria to Turkish and Israeli backed insurgents, as the country’s own sizeable North Korean supplied ballistic missile arsenals were previously expected to be used to supplement Iranian strikes on Israel with attacks from a second direction should a major regional war break out. The empowerment of Turkish-backed and closely Israeli-aligned Islamists in Syria has further cut off arms supplies from Iran to Hezbollah, with these jihadists’ sustained attacks on Hezbollah’s positions since their taking power in Syria having largely taken Hezbollah out of the fight, isolating Iran. Despite its isolation, the sheer size and advanced capabilities of the Iranian missile arsenal built up over more than three decades appear set to allow the country to inflict growing pain on Israel so long as the country sustains its campaign of air attacks against Iranian targets. The limitations of Israeli missile defences are expected to lead to reevaluations by militaries across much of the world regarding the viability of ballistic missile defence in a major sustained conflict. >>2338918Well I'm not a theorist or a pseudo-theorist. Tell me with a straight face that
>>2338891 is a useful thing to say. That their pseudo-analytical cheerleading is suited to here and not a reddit reply section. It's pro-China idealism, don't be fooled just because it throws some compliments in or picked the right team.
>>2338937Yes. And that was BEFORE drone warfare, dumbass.
Maybe Western defense budgets are so bloated with fuck-all to show for it, because maybe your keep spending on random dumb shit, no?
>West is eating shit in real time>pseudo-ultras are pooping their pants over it>"but why aren't these subhumans using sophisticated tech?"Are you just seething enemies of America don't need a call center tech support for their rocket launchers with argon batteries?
>>2338936Don't give me that crap, Sandi. They've isolated themselves into paranoid stagnation. There's a world superpower next door, the technology and support is there if they want it. Cuba has excuses, their isolation is real and physical. DPRK's is self-imposed and continued.
They're basically the M-L equivalent of a commune. That's not how the world is won.
>>2338949>There's a world superpower next doorthey were sanctioned by china
you don't know anything about the dprk, shut the fuck up retard
>>2338963Just very improbable. Likely Fordow goes down, the Iranians have a few guntype nukes in the basement, everyone saves face. B-2s going down is somewhat possible (remember that there will be the world's most powerful EW protecting it), but dead super carriers are a pipe dream.
China being able to threaten the global economy with Taiwan is very real, but Beijing is unlikely to go fully escalatory. It's probably just going to be back channel threats.
>>2338970>dead super carriers are a pipe dreamSee, that kind of assumes anti-ship missiles aren't new meta, which isn't a safe bet,
or you understand that Americans losing a carrier starts countdown to America losing its hegemony and nuclear apocalypse, you're just coping.
>>2338971Iran is doing fine. Guntype nukes are easy to make, just add weapons grade uranium. Fordow likely already crapped out 1-2. Iran has two backstops, although highly expensive ones. First, open nuclear tests. Second, China blocking Taiwanese semiconductors. Israel running out of interceptors is a big loss, and Israel doing wartime censorship is also revealing their weakness.
I notice the Mossad glowbots have become more sparse, i.e, they know they're losing.
>>2338979Not China's style, until it is. China likely would prefer the US to just decline and collapse on its own. Blowing up 3 supercarriers in the middle East would see massive US reprisal and force them to go to war over Taiwan etc, and send troops to Ukraine.
China is the country of "do nothing (obvious), win". Why do flashy dead supercarriers?
>>2338981China wants the US to lose its power, then survive on Chinese life support as a regional power.
Modern Menshevik China is pretty status quo about its revisionism.
To put it another way:
It'd take Chinese satellite support for the Iranians to be able to target super carriers, and even then, the Iranians would likely need to lob 30 missiles at different CSGs to score a lucky shot, and they'd have to bypass terminal EW as well after surviving the anti-ballistic shield.
Moreover, let's say they succeed. The loss of prestige would commit the US to a ground war in Iran, which would be good for the third worldists on this board, but it'd be devastating for the Iranians.
Like the Chinese, like the Russians, they prefer deterrence while the US collapses of its own accord.
>>2338977Decap strikes work.
Demoralization attacks work.
Overbearing entitlement works.
Strat bombing works ← >>2338995It's a widespread meme.
And the point is that Putin is again acting like a naive, law-bound idiot by thinking that Israel gives one shit about the UN charter.
Don't be a sperg.
>>2339003I'm the guy going on about probable military exchanges. And yes, if you go back to anti-Zionism, I will call you out for being a Mossad glowie (which you've always been, Sardanistaposter).
Anti-Kahanism is a practical, realistic way to stop Israeli fascism's (aka Kahanism) current predations on Palestinian lives and dignity.
It is attested to by neutral, Western, liberal sources that Netanyahu stacked his cabinet with Kahanists.
Get rid of the Kahanists, go back to Yitzhak Rabin, and do it right this time. Reparations for Gaza.
https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3897721/fact-sheet-on-efforts-of-ukraine-defense-contact-group-national-armaments-direc/Lockheed is only producing 42 patriot missiles a month, which at least two are required to take out an incoming missile.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/nyt-us-faces-missile-supply-153653734.htmlUS was already facing a shortage of the missiles last year.
https://www.globaldefensecorp.com/2024/12/22/lockheed-martin-to-produce-650-pac-3-patriot-missiles-annually/
>Since full-rate production of the PAC-3 began in 2018, Lockheed has delivered more than 1,700 units.https://www.newsweek.com/patriot-nasams-air-defense-systems-raytheon-1930173
>It currently takes Raytheon a year to build a Patriot fire unit, but the real challenge is the lead time on the components needed to put together each battery, Laliberty said
>It has previously taken around three years for Raytheon to deliver a Patriot fire unit after the order comes in, Laliberty said. At one point, however, it would take around 40 months for Raytheon to fulfill a Patriot battery commitment.
>"We're very close to being back to that," he added, while stressing that Raytheon is hoping to shrink that timeline to 30 months, or two and a half years.
>The current Patriot backlog stands at five fire units destined for Switzerland, and another eight heading for Germany that were ordered this year.
>In roughly the last 20 years, however, the Patriot has had to contend with higher-performing weapons and more effective, coordinated attacks that are ultimately a more "sophisticated" threat," Laliberty said. Not only this, air defense systems such as the Patriot have to work alongside smaller, portable defenses to work out how to bat away cheap drones, as well as highly maneuverable hypersonic weapons. >>2338793>Hezbollah's entire purpose is to fight on behalf of Iranpure zionist propaganda, they're an homegrown resistance movement
>>2338868>empty buildings of symbolic valueI didnt know refineries and military airbase were symbolic
>>2338913this is more than 20 years old at this point though. And now there are drones, good anti air and hypersonic missiles.
>>2338947>>2338977<koper have arrived >>2339013
Nakba is not on the same tier as Gaza. Gaza is deliberate genocide-democide that's probably killed 300,000, out of an initial population of 2,000,000.
If, say, Israel did reverse Auschwitz during Nakba, i.e, quarantining all Palestinians and gassing them (so that there's no surviving Palestinian resistance movement), you'd have a point, but Gaza is a phase change from Nakba and the Intifadas, from liquid to vapor, or from vapor to plasma.
>>2339009Right, and Iran could build a nuke. Any number of things *could* happen on a long enough timescale, but China doesn't have until 2035.
Like it or not, Xi is getting old and isn't going to be around forever, and there's no guarantee that his successor won't be a revisionist that seeks to "heal the divide."
What matters for our purposes is that America and Israel almost certainly are seeking regime change in Iran and, for whatever reason, Russia and China are either unwilling or unable to help.
>>2338988>China wants you have no idea what "china wants" beyond multipolarity
>It'd take Chinese satellite support for the Iranians to be able to target super carriersno, iran has radars and satellite, theres 0 reason they'd need china
>the Iranians would likely need to lob 30 missiles at different CSGs to score a lucky shotno, a single hypersonic would be enough
>The loss of prestige would commit the US to a ground war in Iransounds absolutely retarded, they'd loose a lot more and it wouldnt be poltiically convenient. "Oh we attacked them and got our asses kicked so now we need to go all in" wouldnt fly
>they prefer deterrence while the US collapses of its own accordthats for sure, but your framing is still stupid
>>2339023Xi will likely be around until 2033 at the latest. I don't expect he'll stick around forever, but the relative power between China and America, not least because the latter wants to support Kahanist Israel, will shift in China's favor.
The real question is whether material contradictions or the Marxist superstructure of China will deliver us "fourth generation Imperialism" in China or "fifth generation non-Imperialism".
>>2339034Basically, there's a 30-40% chance that a B-2 goes down. The odds of an American super carrier going down would be around 10% or less, the Iranians would have to commit to attempting to kill super carriers, would require Chinese support to do so (IIRC, the Houthis were counting on commercial Chinese satellite imaging, not Iranian sats), and everyone would have be okay with the escalation.
There's a reason the Chinese were trying to rush technology transfer of satellite anti-carrier technology to Iran.
>>2339036It is easier and simpler to force nuclear Kahanist Israel to stop being Kahanist, to recognize and protect Palestinian human rights, to withdraw newer settler colonies, and to pay substantial reparations to Palestinians than it is to destroy Israel.
We've had 80 years to destroy Israel. We don't seem to have made any progress. Ally with Israeli leftists who know what they are doing is wrong and that the present Israeli direction is suicidal.
>>2338950no one knows but russia says it can. i think the concept for multiradar integration is the same as patriot but russian missiles are just better.
>"you need your own satellite tracking".both sides actually are doing or working on that too. they can probably both already hit ballistic hypersonics and probably glide too if they fire enough interceptors but who knows with hypersonic cruise. idk if iran or china even has hypersonic cruise and natos(and indias) keep crashing or melting 60 seconds after launch because they are behind in materials and fuel science. its confusing because a lot of "hypersonics" without clarification are just MRBM(basically upgraded Pershing) and were only off-limits because of START so what they can actually target is left to strategic ambiguity
>>2339040Dark Eagle is mature and is pointed at China.
A B-2 loss would be substantial American prestige loss without triggering a crisis; the B-2 is obsolete anyways (intended to be replaced by B-21) and it'd be a subtle, maybe moderate move to shoot it down. Show that the Americans are not impervious and without limits, but leave them an escape hatch.
I 100% believe that China would support Iran in blowing up a B-2, but strongly doubt their assistance toward killing supercarriers. If blowing up the super carriers were the objective, we'd have seen a blockade around Taiwan by now.
>>2339038>We don't seem to have made any progress.No because Israel is intrinsically linked to the USA economy through the petrodollar. Israel will only fall soon before the USA does. And there, for the longest time, those liberal methods have failed because global liberalism continued to work well for US hegemony. Now, the winds are changing.
And though, BDS and all other non militant forms of resistance remain useless, there is actual bite to international diplomacy. And actual prices to be paid, every time the US needs to discipline a region into being good imperalized subjects. Which is the role of Israel in MENA.
>>2339043 (me)
whic is to day, Israel will only fall in the very last stand of NATO to remain hegemonic. Whether that'd be peaceful or not, you can guess how NATO feels about losing the petrodollar. Israel will fall like Berlin did, if you ask me.
>>2339021lets say thats all true and someone thanos snaps all the kahanist. now cia comes in and assassinates your revisionist and pays someone to be a new kahanist. the problem is that israel is an ethnostate and you cant revise that because it does not serve wall street to have a secular democratic attack dog in the middle east.
>>2339025>A return to 1967 borders is acceptableEven Hamas agrees to this. It only happens by breaking the back of western imperialism.
>>2339072I mean, I assume Western military intelligence specialists already know how Iran can shoot down a B-2, and will probably put up countermeasures.
No, the B-2 isn't invulnerable, nor is it invisible; it's just incredibly hard to get a tracking solution on it.
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