Is Venezuela about to be fucking invaded?
>Venezuela mobilizes its militia after US says it’s deploying military forces to waters around Latin America:https://edition.cnn.com/2025/08/19/americas/venezuela-maduro-militia-us-military-deployment-intl-latam>US destroyers head toward waters off Venezuela as Trump aims to pressure drug cartels:https://apnews.com/article/trump-venezuela-destroyers-maduro-drug-cartels-e33794ebc24d9031e536d132ce205b4c>Donald Trump Deploys 3 Missile Destroyers: What to Know:https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-missile-destroyers-venezuela-drug-cartels-2115786>Proposed United States invasion of Venezuela:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_United_States_invasion_of_Venezuela>Estados Unidos, “dispuesto a usar todo su poder” contra el narcotráfico desde Venezuela:https://elpais.com/us/2025-08-19/estados-unidos-dispuesto-a-usar-todo-su-poder-contra-el-narcotrafico-desde-venezuela.htmlI don't know if you've heard the news, but several US ships have sailed towards Venezuela's coast in order to "combat drug trafficking". Someone investigate the ships to see if they're old to see if they gonna false-flag Venezuela. I know that Nothing Ever Happens, but Trump has already put a price to Maduro's head and these news… I think something's cooking, something's sizzling.
Just making this thread in the case to discuss this, and to see if there are further happenings. I'm going to be honest, I'm getting bad vibes from this.
211 posts and 43 image replies omitted.>>2496206>I'd rather burn than be passive in the face of such evil and butchery.You’re still being passive in the face of such evil and butchery. Indulging in a toxic and fatal form of passivity will only give the imperialists another point on their board. You have allowed them your death, and they will forever be grateful for that.
>>2496211>I'm not convinced I could successfully pull something like that offYou’re already planning to burn yourself. What does that matter for at this point?
>crack down on domestic leftists while escalating the invasionAlready happening
>And the American public would eat it up because they are highly susceptible to jingoist propaganda.Disapproval is at an all time high
>>2496214Excellent points
>>2496194Russia won't be able to do anything, they spent much more efforts on Syria and it still fell to US proxies, and they have enough on their hands in Ukraine right now, if the burgers themselves want to topple Venezuela there will be nothing to stop them.
The only good thing if they decide to proceed is that it will bolster anti US sentiment in South America and anti war movement at home which can be capitalized on, Russia will be irrelevant to this and I expect China to be flaccid as usual, selling labubus to everyone involved and keeping making money.
F-35s and Reaper drones join huge US Naval fleet patrolling the Caribbean
An eighth US Navy warship has arrived in the Caribbean to intensify counter-cartel operations despite legal experts raising questions about the scope of military authority and the risk of mission creep.
The Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer, USS Stockdale, has joined a growing US naval presence in waters overseen by US Southern Command.
Business Insider reports that Stockdale’s arrival brings the total number of US vessels in theatre to eight, part of an assertive attempt to disrupt maritime drug trafficking routes near Venezuela. It comes as Russia declares NATO and the EU are now 'at war' with Moscow in a chilling escalation.
Officials frame the mission as a whole-of-government push to detect, monitor and interdict illicit flows - an effort now backed by high-end air power and a Marine crisis-response force.
US defence officials say Coast Guard Law Enforcement Detachments are embarked to conduct boardings and seizures where permissible.
The emphasis, they add, is on deterring cartels, protecting the US homeland and sustaining pressure on transnational criminal organisations.
US Navy vessels in the Caribbean
• USS Stockdale, guided-missile destroyer
• USS Jason Dunham, guided-missile destroyer
• USS Gravely, guided-missile destroyer
• USS Lake Erie, guided-missile cruiser
• USS Minneapolis-Saint Paul, littoral combat ship
• USS Iwo Jima, amphibious assault ship (flagship of the Iwo Jima Amphibious Ready Group)
• USS Fort Lauderdale, amphibious transport dock
• USS San Antonio, amphibious transport dock
•The Iwo Jima Amphibious Ready Group is embarked with the 22nd Marine Expeditionary Unit, a roughly brigade-sized crisis-response formation trained for evacuations, disaster relief and amphibious assaults.
Air power and surveillance
Alongside the ships, the Department of Defense has indicated F-35 Lightning II jets are supporting the mission, enhancing the networked intelligence picture and long-range targeting options in complex maritime environments.
US officials also acknowledge the presence of MQ-9 Reaper drones, a proven platform for persistent surveillance and cueing. Specific operating areas and tactics are being withheld for operational security.
The political and legal backdrop
The deployment decisions were taken by the US Secretary of Defense in support of the president’s directive to dismantle transnational criminal organisations and counter narco-terrorism.
The administration has designated several cartels as foreign terrorist organisations. Supporters argue the approach unlocks additional law-enforcement tools and international coordination.
>>2496311This is just a political show.
Nothing Ever Happens.
Trump administration weighs military strikes inside Venezuela within 'weeks', NBC News reports
U.S. military officials are reportedly developing plans for potential strikes against drug traffickers within Venezuela's borders, a move that could begin "in a matter of weeks," NBC News reported late Friday.
Four sources — two U.S. officials familiar with the planning and two others familiar with the discussions — told NBC News that the Trump administration is considering options that primarily focus on drone strikes targeting the members and leadership of drug trafficking groups, as well as drug labs.
Striking inside Venezuela would mark a significant escalation in the administration’s military campaign against alleged drug targets and its stance toward Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro’s government.
The sources confirmed that President Trump has not yet approved the potential strikes. Two of them, along with an additional official familiar with the discussions, indicated that the recent U.S. military escalation is partly a reaction to the administration's view that Maduro is not doing enough to stop the flow of illegal drugs out of his country.
The administration has already taken recent military action.
Posting on Truth Social, Trump said that the U.S. military had struck at least three boats allegedly carrying narco-traffickers and drugs that could threaten Americans. While the administration has not provided evidence of drugs on all vessels, a U.S. Embassy official and an official in the Dominican Republic confirmed that drugs were found in the water after one of the strikes.
<Weakening Maduro's grip on power?
Some officials within the Trump administration are reportedly disappointed that the recent military actions have not weakened Maduro's grip on power or prompted any significant response, according to an official familiar with the discussions. The White House is also facing more pushback on the drug boat strikes than anticipated, prompting careful consideration of next steps.
The potential for U.S. strikes is not a surprise to those familiar with the administration's thinking, especially given the recent large-scale military deployment to the region, reports NBC News. The U.S. recently deployed at least eight ships with more than 4,000 personnel and F-35 fighter jets to Puerto Rico.
One source familiar with the administration’s thinking noted, “You don’t move that many resources down there without looking at all options.” Another source familiar with the discussions pointed out the practical limits of the deployment, saying, “You can’t keep that kind of firepower in the Caribbean forever.”
Asked for comment on the story, the White House referred NBC News to an earlier statement from the president: “We’ll see what happens. Venezuela is sending us their gang members, their drug dealers and drugs. It’s not acceptable.” The Pentagon declined to comment.
A senior administration official told NBC News that the president is “prepared to use every element of American power to stop drugs from flooding into our country and to bring those responsible to justice.”
Meanwhile, Venezuelan political analyst Anibal Sanchez Ismayel told NBC News that “an attack on Venezuelan soil would have consequences from diplomatic protests to an increase in political persecutions of those they classify as collaborators, to further uniting the population with the need to defend sovereignty reaffirmed.”
NBC News reported that Maduro's government did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Maduro has previously denied any role in drug trafficking and repeatedly alleged that the U.S. is trying to force him from power.
<Trump administration goals
NBC News previously reported that the goal, according to a source familiar with the administration’s thinking, is to pressure Maduro into making hasty decisions that could ultimately lead to his ousting without American boots on the ground.
The administration has been using Middle Eastern leaders as intermediaries for discussions with Venezuela, with Maduro speaking to them about concessions he would be willing to make to remain in power, a senior administration official told NBC News.
>>2496399Yeah, I don't know if it can really scale that way. From what I've read, Hezbollah was taken out of the game because of obligations to the Lebanese government and public opinion. Them not being their own independent government complicates things somewhat. Even with all the strikes against its leadership that Hamas has suffered, it's still going, so it's questionable that this tactic is really efficacious on its own.
Like we saw with Iran, there might be a lot of internal unrest inside Venezuela, but an overt attack from the US might temporarily relieve that pressure. Killing Maduro could cause a lot of chaos and confusion, but if the rest of Venezuelan society is united against the yankee then you're sparking on damp tinder. I think they'd have to just keep wacking government officials until the state collapsed in that case, but that would end up creating circumstances like in Iraq, but no coalition forces to keep resource extraction functional.
Fear and Hope in Venezuela as U.S. Warships Lurk
In one corner of Venezuela’s capital, hundreds of government supporters held guns to their chests, as one speaker after another, microphone in hand, urged them to defend the nation with their lives.
In another corner, businessmen and diplomats worried about the escalating tensions between Venezuela and the United States, about what they see as a lost opportunity for dialogue between the two countries and about the possibility of a U.S. strike that could unleash bloodshed and chaos.
Still, in other parts of the capital, Caracas, there was a battle-weary calm and skepticism that there will ever be political change in Venezuela.
Granted a rare visa for foreign journalists, I spent a week in Venezuela at a particularly tense time. Relations with the United States are at a crossroads, with the Trump administration sending warships into the Caribbean. The buildup’s size and President Trump’s public threats against President Nicolás Maduro have raised the specter of strikes, of commando raids in the South American nation, or of some broader conflict.
President Trump has said he wants to unleash the military on cartels and stop trafficking to the United States, and his administration has called Mr. Maduro the head of a terrorist organization threatening the United States and flooding it with drugs.
The United States says it has blown up at least three drug-smuggling boats in the Caribbean, including at least two from Venezuela, in a significant escalation of the kind of pressure that Mr. Trump has put on Mexico to crack down on fentanyl.
But while some drugs do come from Venezuela, fentanyl does not, and the cocaine that does is a very small percentage of the trade, far less than what comes from Colombia and exits from Colombia and Ecuador, according to the U.S. government’s accounting.
That has led many observers to say that the Trump administration’s real goal is to go after Mr. Maduro.
In interviews, some Venezuelans said they supported any action that would lead to the ouster of Mr. Maduro, who is accused of major human rights violations and whose movement has led the country for a generation.
Members of the Bolivarian militia during a rally this month.CreditCredit…
The group supporting the use of force is led by Maria Corina Machado, an opposition leader. Her base says that by removing Mr. Maduro, the United States could defend the result of last year’s presidential vote, which Mr. Maduro is widely believed to have lost. Independent vote monitors and many countries, including the United States, recognized Mr. Maduro’s opponent, Edmundo González, a surrogate for Ms. Machado, as the legitimate victor.
One of Ms. Machado’s advisers, Pedro Urruchurtu, said she was coordinating with the Trump administration and had a plan for the first 100 hours after Mr. Maduro’s fall. That plan involves the participation of international allies, he said, “especially the United States,” and would “guarantee a stable transition” to Mr. González.
But in interviews, other Venezuelans were far less eager to see the United States get involved. Many, even those who said they wanted to see Mr. Maduro gone, arguing that he has held on only through repression, said that a violent U.S. move was not the solution. Many people spoke on the condition of anonymity, fearing retaliation.
Some said they doubted the willingness of the United States to keep a large contingent of troops on the ground to ensure the stability of a U.S.-backed government.
Three diplomats said they saw few signs that anyone in Mr. Maduro’s inner circle would split to support an opposition leader, or that the military would turn on him.
Other Venezuelans warned that ousting Mr. Maduro would only invite the armed actors left behind — the military, Colombian guerrilla groups, paramilitary gangs — into a battle for the spoils.
And in Venezuela, with its oil, gold and other minerals, there are many spoils.
“You kill Maduro,” said one prominent businessman, “you turn Venezuela into Haiti,” which descended into chaos after its last president was assassinated.
Still others were skeptical that Mr. Trump was willing to get involved militarily and said that the president’s gunboat strategy, led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, would only push Venezuela further from the United States and toward China, Russia and Iran.
Mr. Maduro has responded to Washington’s mobilization by arming civilians, sending tanks into the streets and announcing military exercises throughout the country, which have been publicized on state television and social media. But his advisers say the central message to Washington is that their government does not want war.
The Venezuelan president sent a letter to Mr. Trump this month praising his efforts to halt other conflicts and said he was open to a “direct and frank conversation” with Mr. Trump’s special envoy to Venezuela, Richard Grenell.
Early this year, Mr. Grenell seemed to be trying to improve relations, traveling to Venezuela to meet with Mr. Maduro just after Mr. Trump took office. But more recently, Mr. Trump appears to favor Mr. Rubio’s hard-line approach.
In an interview at her office inside the country’s oil ministry building, Vice President Delcy Rodríguez said that she believed Mr. Trump was leading the world into “a stage where the United States has openly declared war on the world.”
She called the boat attacks “absolutely illegal” and called for a normalization of economic relations with the United States, which has imposed sanctions on Venezuela’s vital oil industry.
“The people of the United States do not want war in the Caribbean,” she said.
Image
A woman with glasses and a mustard-colored jacket sits in a blue chair.
Delcy Rodríguez after an interview on Friday.
Even amid escalating tensions, Venezuela has continued to accept twice-weekly flights of deportees from the United States, said the country’s foreign minister, Yván Gil.
Several diplomats and business leaders in Caracas said that they hoped the United States would shift back to a policy of diplomacy, believing that persistent negotiations could eventually persuade Mr. Maduro to hand power to a reformist successor or moderate opposition leader in exchange for sanctions relief and other conditions.
They also said that he is tired but cannot leave office if he thinks he will be arrested. Mr. Maduro, who is 62 and has led the country since 2013, is under indictment in the United States on drug conspiracy charges.
On the streets of Caracas, the strain between the two nations has produced contrasting images of war and peace.
Several people said that they worked for the government, that their superiors had required attendance and that they had been given unloaded guns to hold during the event. Many hurried to leave as soon as it ended.
Others said that patriotism had brought them out and vowed to defend Mr. Maduro and his movement.
“If there is an invasion,” said Marisol Amundaray, 50, “I will safeguard my children and head to the street with my rifle.”
In other parts of the city, though, normal life continued. Not far from the presidential palace one morning, Constanza Sofía Arangeren twirled on a cobblestone street in a gold ball gown as a photographer snapped away.
Image
A young woman in a gold ball gown stands in front of a large wooden door. One person holds a light and two others look on.
Constanza Sofía Arangeren during a photo shoot for her 15th birthday, outside the home where Simón Bolivar, an independence hero, was born.
She was preparing her 15th birthday celebration, and her mother was more anxious about the coming party than a possible invasion.
No one interviewed said they were hoarding supplies. Some said they were not worried about an attack; others said they couldn’t afford to.
“In a normal country where there is a threat like this, the first thing people do is stock up on food,” said Estefanie Mendoza, 42, a social worker with two children, “but we can’t do that.”
While the country’s economy has recovered somewhat since a protracted crisis helped fuel a migrant exodus, the rebound has been uneven.
Mr. Trump and Mr. Rubio have argued that significant amounts of cocaine are trafficked through Venezuela and that they are seeking to stop U.S. overdoses. A 2020 report from the U.S. State Department said just 10 percent to 13 percent of the global cocaine supply goes through Venezuela.
Fentanyl, which causes far more overdoses than cocaine, is almost entirely produced in Mexico with chemicals imported from China, according to the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration.
The boats that U.S. forces have bombed in the Caribbean have killed at least 17 people, according to the Trump administration.
Some legal experts have called it a crime to summarily kill civilians not directly taking part in hostilities, even if they are believed to be smuggling drugs.
In the state of Sucre, on Venezuela’s Caribbean coast, the first boat to have been destroyed, on Sept. 2, is widely believed to have been carrying people from the towns of San Juan de Unare and Güiria, on a spit of land known as the Paria Peninsula.
For years the region has been dominated by cocaine trafficking, according to Ronna Rísquez, a Venezuelan journalist who has conducted field work in the area.
Güiria, Venezuela, in 2020. While the country’s economy has recovered somewhat since a protracted crisis that started in 2015, the rebound has been uneven.
But migrants, trafficking victims and government-subsidized Venezuelan gasoline — which can be sold at a higher price in Trinidad and Tobago, just six miles away — also leave from this area, she said.
In an interview, one woman who identified herself as the wife of one of the dead men said that her husband was a fisherman with four children who left one day for work and never came back.
Some in Venezuela said they feared U.S. military action would mean more loss. And they said they didn’t believe that Ms. Machado, who says she is in hiding in Venezuela, and Mr. González, in exile in Spain, could guarantee their security.
“Name one successful case in the last few years of a successful U.S. military intervention,” said Henrique Capriles, an opposition politician who has clashed with Ms. Machado.
A bloodless U.S. “extraction” of Mr. Maduro was the stuff of Netflix, he said, not reality.
“And the cost for us Venezuelans, what will it be? What guarantee do we have that this will translate into a recovery of our democracy?”
Another article from the NYT confirming what escalation predictors have been saying. Rubio is driving it and the CIA is behind him. Also some Venezuelan opposition figures flew to the U.S. in May to meet with them.
>The push by top aides to President Trump to remove Nicolás Maduro as the leader of Venezuela has intensified in recent days, with administration officials discussing a broad campaign that would escalate military pressure to try to force him out, U.S. officials say.
>It is being led by Marco Rubio, the secretary of state and national security adviser. Mr. Rubio argues that Mr. Maduro is an illegitimate leader who oversees the export of drugs to the United States, which he says poses an “imminent threat.”
>In recent weeks, the U.S. military has launched lethal attacks on civilian boats that the administration said were smuggling drugs for Venezuelan gangs. But Mr. Rubio is shaping a more aggressive strategy, using intelligence provided by the C.I.A., the officials said. The Pentagon has built up a force of more than 6,500 troops in the region.
>The agency’s director, John Ratcliffe, and Stephen Miller, Mr. Trump’s chief domestic policy adviser, both support Mr. Rubio’s approach, the officials added.
>The U.S. military has been planning potential military operations targeting drug trafficking suspects in Venezuela itself as a next phase, although the White House has not yet approved such a step, current and former officials say.
>Those operations would be aimed at interfering with drug production and trafficking in Venezuela as well as tightening a vise around Mr. Maduro.
>Because administration officials assert Mr. Maduro sits atop Venezuela’s cartel network, they can argue that removing him from power is ultimately a counternarcotics operation.
>Mr. Rubio repeatedly cites the Justice Department’s 2020 indictment of him and other Venezuelan officials on drug trafficking charges. He recently described Mr. Maduro as a “fugitive from American justice” and the head of “a terrorist organization and organized crime organization that have taken over a country.”
>At the same time, two senior figures in Venezuela’s opposition say their movement has been planning for what to do if Mr. Maduro falls and have been engaged with talks with the Trump administration about that possibility … Mr. Rubio met with five opposition figures in May who secretly fled to the United States in what he called a “precise operation.” He has praised the opposition leader, María Corina Machado, whom he called by her nickname, the “Venezuelan Iron Lady,” in a tribute this year … Pedro Urruchurtu, an adviser to Ms. Machado, said in an interview that the opposition had developed a plan for the first 100 hours after Mr. Maduro’s ouster that would involve a transfer of power to Edmundo González, who ran for president against Mr. Maduro last year.
<Venezuelan Foreign Minister Condemns ‘Immoral Threats,’ Reaffirms Commitment to Peace in UN Speech
>Venezuela’s Foreign Minister Yván Gil condemned Friday Washington’s military threats and reasserted Caracas’ commitment to peace and multilateralism before the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA).
>In his address, Gil recalled the “countless attacks” that the Caribbean nation has faced, including an assassination attempt against President Nicolás Maduro, a mercenary incursion and hundreds of unilateral coercive measures targeting the oil industry and other economic sectors.https://venezuelanalysis.com/news/venezuelan-foreign-minister-condemns-immoral-threats-reaffirms-commitment-to-peace-in-un-speech/
<President Maduro Highlights Widespread Support for Venezuela at UN General Assembly
>Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro highlighted the support expressed by the majority of member countries and groups of the United Nations for the defense of Venezuela and the region of Latin America and the Caribbean. The outpouring of diplomatic support occurs amid the multifaceted aggression that the United States is carrying out against Venezuela, which includes a significant naval and military deployment near the Venezuelan coast.
>During a televised broadcast, the Venezuelan president noted that the delegation headed by Venezuelan Foreign Minister Yván Gil attended the 80th United Nations General Assembly held from Sept. 23 to 29 in New York City.https://orinocotribune.com/president-maduro-highlights-widespread-support-for-venezuela-at-un-general-assembly/
<Venezuela denounces “unprecedented” media campaign and psychological warfare
>Delcy Rodríguez declared that Latin America is a zone of peace, as agreed since 2014 by the member countries of CELAC.
>Venezuela is experiencing an unprecedented media campaign and psychological warfare, the Executive Vice President of the Republic, Delcy Rodríguez, denounced on Monday.
>In a meeting with the secretariat of the National Council of Sovereignty and Peace, the vice president stressed that the international strategy seeks to ignore history as a free and sovereign nation and execute a psychological offensive against the people.https://www.telesurenglish.net/venezuela-denounces-unprecedented-media-campaign-and-psychological-warfare/ Top Trump Officials Intensify Push for Regime Change in Venezuela
US President Donald Trump announced on September 30 that his administration would expand surveillance of drug shipments entering the country by land, following recent military strikes on Venezuelan vessels in the Caribbean.
The measures come amid escalating tensions between Washington and Caracas, with Trump alleging that the Venezuelan government orchestrates an international trafficking network known as the Cartel of the Suns.
Speaking to reporters whilst travelling to a meeting with military leaders, Trump said operations against several boats had successfully halted maritime drug shipments. "All you have to do is look at the cargo that was scattered across the ocean, large bags of cocaine everywhere," he said, adding that land routes were now the focus of US efforts.
At a separate event with senior armed forces officials, he stated that Washington was actively disrupting Venezuelan drug operations and warned of decisive retaliation against threats to US citizens.
Since early September, US forces have conducted at least two strikes on speedboats in international waters near Venezuela. The latest operation resulted in three fatalities and included footage released by Trump showing a vessel struck in the open sea. He characterised the casualties as suspected traffickers and acknowledged collateral effects on local fisheries, asserting the actions were necessary to prevent drugs from entering the US.
The first strike on September 2 reportedly killed 11 crew members of a vessel linked to the Tren de Aragua gang, according to Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who argued that arrests alone were insufficient. The US maintains a presence of eight warships, including a nuclear submarine, and roughly 4,500 personnel in the southern Caribbean as part of its anti-trafficking strategy.
Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro condemned the operations as acts of military aggression, asserting that Caracas was exercising its right to self-defence under international law and denouncing what he called Washington's judicial, political, diplomatic and military pressures aimed at unseating him from power.
In response to the escalating crisis, Venezuela activated extraordinary constitutional measures on September 29, granting Maduro sweeping security powers under a "State of External Commotion" decree. The emergency provisions, valid for an initial 90 days, empower the president to mobilise armed forces nationwide and assert government control over critical infrastructure, including the oil industry and public services. Vice-President Delcy Rodríguez denounced the American naval presence as a violation of the UN Charter, whilst Venezuela's military has begun conducting training exercises with civilian militia members in preparation for what officials describe as a possible American invasion.
Underestimating Chavista strength is one of the recurring mistakes of American presidents.Donald Trump is wrong to laugh at Venezuelan women militia members for their height and weight. They were the same ones who, in 2020, along with fishermen from Chuao, recognized a small boat carrying several former Venezuelan soldiers and two former Green Berets from the US Army Special Forces. The group planned to enter Venezuela by sea, seize a nearby airport, and fly Nicolás Maduro out of the country after a “fantastic” capture, the kind seen in Mission: Impossible, that could only succeed in their imaginations.
Aaron Barry and Luke Denman, the mercenaries in question, were two American operatives who had fought in Libya and Iraq and were recruited for the mission. They held Bronze Star Medals and other insignia awarded by the US Army when they were arrested, thanks to the very militia members Trump now mocks on social media. These are the same women the US president ridicules for their appearance and phenotype, yet he does not hesitate to accuse them of belonging to the mythical “Cartel of the Suns.”
Recent Venezuelan history shows a long line of underestimations and miscalculations by opponents, senior foreign officials, and US presidents. Pedro Carmona Estanga, then-president of the business group Fedecámaras, believed that in April 2002 it would be enough to arrest Hugo Chávez to force his resignation, and that Chavista military forces would not counterattack to retake Miraflores Palace, backed by massive mobilizations in Caracas neighborhoods.
Donald Trump believed his national security adviser, John Bolton, in January 2019, when Bolton claimed that if the US recognized Juan Guaidó’s self-proclamation as president, thousands of military personnel would defect and stage a coup against Maduro.
Later, in one of the most ironic episodes in Venezuelan history, Trump again relied on assurances from Leopoldo López and Juan Guaidó, relayed through Bolton, that Maikel Moreno, then-head of the Supreme Court, would issue a ruling recognizing Guaidó as president, with the backing of Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino López and SEBIN chief Christopher Figuera. The saga ended with Guaidó and López recording a video on a dark highway, calling on the military to rise up, while Moreno and Padrino López ignored their calls. For the immortality of Venezuelan memes, rebel troops fired ammunition stored in banana crates from the Francisco Fajardo Highway. The image of that fiasco, which sparked global mockery of US power, contributed to Bolton’s ouster from the Trump administration.
A few years later, the same fanciful, outdated thinking appears to have returned with the White House comeback of the orange-haired creator of The Apprentice. It’s no longer Bolton filling Trump’s ears with empty promises, but Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who also serves as national security adviser, envisioning a revival of gunboat diplomacy, when the United States militarily occupied Latin American nations and orchestrated coups. In Rubio’s “domino” logic, Venezuela’s fall would end Cuba’s revolution and oust Nicaragua’s Daniel Ortega. It would also send a warning to any country that defies Washington or draws close to China or Russia, Monroeism on steroids.
As in past cases, this calculation, made by Cuban American officials who have never lived in Latin America, assumes the “Chávez regime” would collapse overnight and that María Corina Machado would emerge as the undisputed leader of all Venezuelans, leaving everyone else to fend for themselves. But many things could go wrong. If US military pressure, “surgical strikes,” or “targeted assassinations” succeeded, Venezuela could descend into a power vacuum, potentially seized by military factions more radical than Maduro, or fragment into warlord-controlled zones, as in Libya or Syria, with a US-backed rump state in the center. Venezuela has a long history of regional caudillos that could resurface.
Alternatively, as in previous episodes, nothing might happen: military pressure could fail, Trump could lose interest, and he might strike a deal with Venezuela, exchanging Venezuelan migrants for oil, as proposed by MAGA-aligned members of his cabinet. Yet one of the worst outcomes for Trumpism would be a military intervention in Venezuela that achieves nothing. Such a failure would shatter the myth that gunboat diplomacy can be revived in Latin America. It could happen, for instance, that Trump deploys heavily decorated US soldiers, only for them to be detained by the very militia members he mocks online.
That is why Trump is wrong to laugh at Venezuelan militia members.
https://orinocotribune.com/trump-was-wrong-to-laugh-at-venezuelan-militia-members/ >>2491766>>2491799>>2496119>>2496157The Empire vs. Venezuela: “War on Drugs” Chapter
<Please join us online for a presentation by, and discussion with, Orinoco Tribune editors Saheli Chowdhury, Steve Lalla, and Jesús Rodríguez Espinoza (abstract below).
>Venezuela is back in the headlines of mainstream, as well as alternative media, around the world due to a series of threats of invasion coming from various level of the US government—supported by its vassal states and due to the deployment of multiple US warships in the Caribbean waters, unseen in recent years. As the empire’s threats and war preparation ramp up and the world watches with apprehension in anticipation of a war in the Zone of Peace, it should be remembered that the situation is nothing new, although the intensity and the means may be. The Bolivarian Revolution has been the target of the US empire since its foundation, and the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela has experienced dozens of coup attempts over the past quarter century. The current escalation was preceded by a widespread crackdown on Venezuelan migrants in the US—migrants of the US-imposed economic-financial-trade blockade—with the excuse of combating “Venezuelan gang violence” in the United States, using the name of a gang (Tren de Aragua) that has been almost liquidated in Venezuela by the Venezuelan authorities and connecting it, contrary to all evidence, precisely with the Venezuelan government.
>Similarly, the current war environment has been created under the guise of combating narco-trafficking to the US through Venezuela, again contrary to all evidence presented by organizations as diverse as the United Nations and the European Union. In this case also, Venezuela is being branded as a“narco-state” ruled by the leader of the non-existent Cartel de los Soles, a figment of imagination of the US president. Weaponising the very real issues of gang violence and drug trafficking that plague many countries in the American continent, including the US, consent is being manufactured to invade a nation that refuses to submit to the dictates of the empire of the day. In response to imperialist interventionism, Venezuela has declared a nationwide mobilisation, calling upon the people to join the Bolivarian National Militia. Venezuela is turning out to be a key battleground between an empire’s ambitions and those of a people committed to sovereignty and self-determination.
>Topics that may be discussed:>1- Brief history of US aggression against the Bolivarian Revolution>2- Facts about US military deployment in the South Caribbean>3- Facts about Venezuela’s response>4- Far-right opposition influence over current events>5- Expected vs real effects on Venezuela>6- Fake US War on Drugs vs Real Venezuelan Fight Against Drugs Deepening tensions with Venezuela, the U.S. Marine Corps continues to demonstrate its amphibious and expeditionary capabilities in Puerto Rico
In recent weeks, tensions in the Caribbean, centered on the United States and Venezuela, show no signs of easing. Alongside the significant military presence that the Republican administration has deployed to the region, there have been growing demonstrations of the expeditionary and amphibious capabilities of U.S. Navy and Marine Corps personnel and assets.
Throughout September, Puerto Rico has been the focus of these demonstrations, which, while intended to raise readiness and preparedness levels for operations in support of U.S. foreign policy, also send a clear deterrent message.
In recent days and weeks, amphibious exercises have been observed in Puerto Rico by Marine Corps units, concentrated at the Camp Santiago Training Area as well as other points across the island.
Images circulating online show the deployment of a wide range of amphibious, aerial, and naval capabilities aimed at projecting power from the sea to the shore for the establishment of beachheads.
As reported days ago by the 22nd Marine Expeditionary Unit, its 8×8 LAV-25 armored combat vehicles were deployed on the shores of Arroyo, Puerto Rico, after being transported aboard hovercraft launched from amphibious assault ships stationed offshore, including the USS Iwo Jima (LHD 7) and USS San Antonio (LPD 17).
However, the deployment of assets has not only included amphibious resources but also aerial ones, such as UH-1Y Venom tactical helicopters, AH-1Z Viper attack helicopters, and CH-53E Super Stallion heavy-lift helicopters. The latter were tasked with transporting significant numbers of personnel and vehicles by sling load, while the former carried out tactical transport, attack, and close air support missions, including live-fire exercises with door-mounted machine guns, missiles, and rockets.
Also noteworthy in the air-naval operations was the presence of MV-22B Osprey aircraft belonging to Marine Medium Tiltrotor Squadron (VMM) 263 (Reinforced), tasked with inserting forces into the Camp Santiago area of operations.
Finally, while these exercises and shows of force are aligned with directives from the White House and the Department of Defense, it should not go unnoticed that growing rumors are circulating regarding the possibility of moving forward with a military option to neutralize drug cartels designated as terrorist organizations, many of which have been linked to supporting the Venezuelan government led by Nicolás Maduro.
>>2504660>55:35 it's a big lie uh talking about uh the that the US is really trying to fight drugs. Uh and another important scene is that the US is a major consumer of of drugs in in the world and and no one does a real intensive important work in the US to combat that reality. Uh and actually also the US is the safe heaven for drugs lords. The drug lords do not live in Karakas or Boota. They live in Europe or the US most of them. And money laundering is another importance in the US is the is the biggest money laundering machine. The US banking system is the biggest money laundering machine in the world. And all international documents talk about that. So it's a a humongous hypocrisy to talk about uh the war on drugs and then use it against Venezuela.
> 1:02:14 What I'd like to do is maybe pick up on one of the uh important threads and then frame a question for you. The thread is the extent to which the war on drugs is one of the principal kind of ideological uh tools that is currently being used to wage the imperial war or intensified I should say against Venezuela. I really appreciated the ways in which you frame this in order to understand how the war on drugs actually operates or a war using drugs as a tool of counterinsurgency. I would add to many of the important comments that you had the excellent work of Alfred M. McCoy, the politics of heroin, CIA complicity in the global drug trade that goes into great detail about the involvement of the US in the global drug trade, not recently, but you know, for decades and decades. And of course, the great Gary Webb did the Dark Alliance series for San Jose Mercury News, which uh uncovered a lot of the Contra crack cocaine controversy or dealings that um were being referenced. I think it's also important to insist on the extent to which the drugs that are then brought into the United States with the oversight of the intelligence services are used very explicitly as a counterinsurgency tactic and in fact there are members of the US government that are on record stating as much.
>John Erlickman is perhaps the most famous. He was a Watergate co-conspirator and he mentioned regarding the Nixon White House that they had two principal enemies, the anti-war left and the black people. and he said, this is a quote, "We knew we couldn't make it illegal to be either against the war or black, but by getting the public to associate the hippies with marijuana and blacks with heroin, and then criminalizing both heavily, we could disrupt those communities. We could arrest their leaders, raid their homes, break up their meetings, and vilify them night after night on the evening news. Did we know we were lying about the drugs? Of course we did." End quote. Right? So you see here clearly a member of the US administration of course this is more dated but I think this continues unabated really taking the position that the use of drugs uh for counterinsurgency is really integral to fighting uh social movements and anti-imperialist struggle on the home front as well. So those were just some kind of general comments to insist on the importance of the framing that you're giving us in order to understand that the real war on drugs is a war being waged by the imperial powers in order to foster global drug production and use it for counterinsurgency and pro-imperialist agenda. It's not what's being done by those anti-imperialist states like Venezuela that are actually waging a successful war against this global campaign of using drugs to undermine people power.
>1:29:10 there are nine US military bases in Colombia area and uh everywhere where there are I mean the US military bases apart from keeping a country under submission also function as drug trafficking I mean transit points it has it is true in Peru it's true in Ecuador it's I mean currently does not have a military base but when it had it used to be those used to be the transit points of drugs and in Colombia also the it's not like the US military bases has been of any good to Colombia either in the measures of security or in terms of uh drug fight against drugs.
>It has actually been a fight against poor people which Petra has also highlighted. He said that the people who are killed in the war on drugs are the poor people who do not have any other way of earning a living. And I mean they they are the easiest victims of drug traffickers because they are just being used as the mules to traffic drugs from one place to another. And they are the ones who actually like who put the bodies. So they are the ones who are being killed. And he also in another interesting thing that he has but it is a liberal turn of him that he was for the legalization of drugs not all of them but some of them. So probably I think Marijuana would be one of them.
>He said something interesting in his UN speech also when he was talking about the you know the drugs and the US war on drugs. He said that wine and alcohol all alcoholic drinks they are not considered poisonous. Although they are for the body but they are not considered poisonous because they are produced in the north. They are produced in Europe. They're produced in the US. On the other hand the the drugs like cocaine etc. they are produced in the south. No. And not just cocaine. I mean marijuana is also like produced mostly in the south. So they are I mean depending on where a drug is produced it is criminalized or not criminalized it is either celebrated or demonized. So that could be a liberal turn of him but he is also very insisted on the fact that um that in order to fight drugs like really a real war on drugs should be you know the elimination of poverty and upliftment of the people in general.
>1:31:51 For everyone listening and viewing online, please support the important work that's being done. inform yourselves about the real war on drugs or the real real war with drugs and support the struggle for Venezuela to maintain its independence and its sovereignty. Venezuela and US edge toward war footing − but domestic concerns, international risks may hold Washington back
For many in Venezuela, the question is no longer whether tensions with Washington will reach a boiling point – they already have. Rather, the big unknown now is whether the U.S. will follow up on threats and the sinking of drug boats with something more drastic: direct military engagement or even regime change.
Certainly, Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro is preparing for all eventualities. On Sept. 29, 2025, the leftist leader signed a decree granting him additional powers. The following day, Maduro threatened a “state of emergency.” Already, Caracas has carried out military drills amid talk of being a “republic in arms.”
It follows a month in which Washington has positioned warships, an attack submarine and aircraft in the Caribbean and destroyed at least four suspected “go-fast” drug boats. At the United Nations General Assembly on Sept. 23, U.S. President Donald Trump warned of more to come, vowing to blow drug traffickers “out of existence” while repeating his assertion that Maduro was behind the trafficking networks.
Maduro and his generals deny that charge. Nonetheless, Washington has set a US$50 million dollar bounty on Maduro’s arrest and has rejected Venezuela’s appeals for talks.
As an expert on international security and U.S.-Latin American relations, I believe the U.S. position appears to be inching toward regime change from a prior position of ambiguity that has fallen short of an outright pledge to remove Maduro.
But Washington will be aware that any direct military engagement in Venezuela will be a messy affair. Despite increasing international isolation, Maduro still has friends in Moscow and Beijing, as well as closer to home in Havana. And such factors may force the Trump administration to continue to walk a fine line between maximum pressure on the Maduro government without full commitment to armed conflict.
<US ramps up pressure
Recent deployments by the U.S. Southern Command demonstrate a shift in posture by the U.S. administration.
The USS Stockdale became the ninth U.S. Navy vessel and third destroyer – alongside USS Gravely and USS Jason Dunham – to join the USS Iwo Jima Amphibious Ready Group maneuvering between Puerto Rico and the Lesser and Leeward Antilles, and the waters north of Venezuela. In all, at least 4,500 Marines and sailors are positioned in the area.
Meanwhile, at least 10 F-35 fighters and multiple MQ-9 drones are reportedly operating from Aguadilla and Ceiba airports in Puerto Rico, offering the capacity for persistent surveillance and strike options.
These forces are more powerful than the entire Venezuelan navy but reportedly fall short of the forces needed for a full-scale invasion.
For the moment, SouthCom is framing the campaign as enhanced counternarcotics operations, rather than a prelude to a blockade or invasion. Statements have highlighted joint patrols and interdiction efforts with the Royal Netherlands Navy, Canada, the Dominican Republic and the United Kingdom, and the humanitarian or information-sharing nature of missions.
SouthCom has described its position as one of readiness, not war. But this could change, especially with the much-anticipated 2025 national defense review expected to prioritize countering the perceived threat of Chinese interference in the Western Hemisphere.
And it is worth recalling that the U.S. has long maintained a light but steady military footprint in the region.
<Caracas pushes back
Caracas has staged military displays of its own.
Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino López announced on Sept. 15 three days of drills involving naval units, aircraft air-defense assets and militia participation. Maduro has declared “maximum preparedness” and threatened to mobilize a “republic in arms” if attacked.
If enacted, the state of emergency would be effective for 90 days and centralize military control in the office of the president. The aim is clear: to project resolve and raise the cost for Washington of any further escalation.
Venezuela’s military is not negligible, but readiness has been eroded by decades of economic crisis, sanctions and maintenance shortfalls. It is no match for U.S. military dominance at sea or in the air, although it could inflict damage through asymmetric tactics and militia mobilization.
On the U.S. side, the means for coercion through targeted strikes, interdictions, cyberattacks and sanctions are already at hand. Further escalation may, however, hinge on a catalyzing event, such as an attack resulting in the killing of Venezuelan or U.S. military personnel.
<Adversaries and allies
Regionally, most governments have avoided taking sides. One exception is Colombian President Gustavo Petro, who at the United Nations General Assembly called for “criminal proceedings” over the recent U.S. strikes.
In the Caribbean, there is little appetite for hosting a U.S. invasion force. The president of Dominica noted in her speech at the General Assembly that “there is no place in the Caribbean for war.” One exception is Guyana, which is locked in a territorial dispute with Venezuala over the oil-rich Essequibo region and has welcomed U.S. security cooperation.
Yet, an attack on Venezuela or an attempt at regime change risks rallying the country’s allies.
First among them in the region is Cuba. Cuban intelligence and security advisers have long been embedded across Venezuela’s military and security services. This gives Maduro some resilience against internal coups and complicates U.S. efforts to precipitate elite defections from Maduro’s inner circle.
While expressing political support for Maduro, it is highly unlikely that Cuba would ever be in a position to supplement any Venezuelan combat forces given Havana’s own weak position, struggling economy and relatively modest military capabilities.
And despite fresh affirmations of solidarity and the continued presence of Russian “military experts,” Moscow also lacks the political military bandwidth for large, new deployments. Still, long-standing military and technical ties such as training, maintenance, weapons sales and selective systems support offer Maduro a modest but valuable hedge against external pressure.
Even a token port call or bomber overflight could add political friction – and pause for thought in Washington. Russia has sent nuclear-capable bombers to Venezuela in the past, and its navy made a publicized visit to La Guaira in July 2024.
A man in army fatigues speaks and gestures in front of a large photo of another man.
One much more consequential factor could be the position of China.
Beijing plays a consequential role as a buyer of Venezuelan oil. As Western sanctions have set in, a growing share of Venezuelan hydrocarbon exports is now funneled through “shadow fleet” tankers and complex rerouting schemes, allowing crude to reach Chinese refineries despite sanctions and export restrictions.
Any U.S. campaign that disrupts these flows would hit Chinese refiners first. This would likely prompt Beijing to push back diplomatically and commercially.
In late September, China stressed that it “opposes the use of force” and decried external interference in Venezuela’s internal affairs – a clear rebuke of the U.S. military buildup.
The Chinese ambassador in Caracas has also conveyed solidarity to his host, emphasizing that Beijing will “firmly support Venezuela in safeguarding sovereignty, national dignity and social stability.”
China is offering diplomatic support but has stopped short of any pledge of force.
For now, America’s most likely path is, I believe, coastal policing and military pressure. At sea, this means the U.S. continuing to lead counternarcotics operations, but with Navy cover close at hand. The U.S. buildup could well boost underground opposition networks in Venezuela, increasing pressure on the Maduro regime from within.
This will be paired with increased financial pressure in the form of sanctions aimed at further squeezing Venezuela’s state oil industry, but calibrated to avoid a global energy shock. Measures also include restricting dollar-clearing and maritime insurance, blacklisting intermediaries and dark fleet tankers, and targeting front companies.
<Pressure short of war
Nonetheless, expectations of a military clash are edging upward. Several forecasters now put the odds of some form of U.S. strike against Venezuela before year’s end at roughly 1 in 3, with the chances rising further into 2026.
Yet the prospect of an outright invasion remains, I believe, remote. U.S. domestic politics may act as a brake: Opinion polls show most Americans oppose military action to topple Maduro, and an even larger majority reject the idea of a full-scale invasion.
Even so, three factors could shape if and when Washington steps up its action: a deadly incident at sea involving civilians or U.S. personnel; hard evidence that Venezuelan officials are directly tied to large-scale trafficking to the U.S.; and regional governments lining up behind stronger action.
While the odds of a strike and even regime change are rising, Washington’s strategy in the very near term appears to remain one of pressure without full commitment, using shows of force, sanctions and selective strikes to weaken Caracas while avoiding being dragged into a messy war or sparking an oil shock.
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