Today a very much of fictitious "value" was loss on them Wall StreetZ thx to Trumpfgd's tariff's on Choynah. The US A"I" conglomerate is a complete bubble. Laydowns going on in the US. Real estate market status in US: fugged.
Let's celebrate the impovireshment of the first world while China keeps rising! Please post them stonks & predictions.
This is a pro-eggplant/brinjal/aubergine 🍆 thread and also anti-tomato 🍅 thread. Please respexts these common sense sensibilities. Thx.
107 posts and 28 image replies omitted.>>2557795You understand that those theoretical stocks you mention would be "cheap" because of severe negative revaluations, and that such revaluations would be due in large part to the fact that the central pillar of this incipient crisis is that the profits required to maintain such valuations simply cannot be had, right?
If the economy collapses, you're looking down the barrel of decades of economic turmoil as trllions in valuation, and everything which is based on that, gets wiped out. The last time this happened it nearly took the entire global economy down with it, and we were saved only by China agreeing to step in and take all that bad debt on the chin. Now it's been nearly 20 years of pumping up that debt to the tune of a trllion plus every year, and there's no guarantee that even China could bail the US and everyone out again, even if they wanted to.
I don't think gold could plummet as dramatically as things like buttcoin or inflated tech stocks, because gold can never completely lose all of its value, it will always be a finite real-world resource with practical value. The whole central draw of gold for investors is that its a relatively stable and resilient commodity, it is seen as the "safe" non-volatile investment, which is why gold prices/demand tend to increase when the economy is doing badly and gold prices decrease when the economy is doing well.
>>2558584Im surrounded by idiots. Recessions and down turns are just minor bumps when it comes to stock prices.
>>2554155Honestly, if I were king of the CPC, I would just have the state invest a couple of billion (trivial at the government scale) into non-profit foreign stock market manipulation aimed at causing economic distrust.
>>2555719>describing this as a socialist revolutionChinese tech isn't locked down, the proletariat can re-configure the software and modify the hardware by adding or removing their own parts to fit their material conditions. AppleTV degenerates are literally regressed into pre-modern neofeudal serfs who think technology is magic that only the priest class can control. Neoliberals would literally be afraid and shocked if you opened up their phone case lol
>just turning apple consumers into huawei consumersChina makes tech for adult humans, they don't sell glossy, frictionless baby products for domesticated cattle who can't legally repair their own stuff.
https://bitcoinmagazine.com/markets/bitcoin-price-crashes-to-94000>Bitcoin Price Crashes to $94,000 and New Six-Month Lows>Bitcoin price fell sharply today, sliding from an intraday high of $104,000 to $94,480, wiping out earlier gains and marking a decisive breakdown in price action. Twelve hours ago, the Bitcoin price hit above $100,000 and then consistently bled down from the upper $101,000s to lows of $94,480. Ethereum dropped below $3,100 at times and crypto stocks like Coinbase ($COIN) and Strategy ($MSTR) are trading in the red in pre-market trading. Also, the Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index has plunged to a new “Extreme Fear” low, signaling deep market anxiety even as long-term holders stay the course. bitcoin AND gold is falling, is this a liquidity crisis? do the banks have money?
>>2566249>bitcoinSpeculation about speculation.
>AND gold is fallingCentral banks around the world are still hoarding gold but high fed rates and strong dollar make it less attractive investment (due to gold not producing interest and gold being traded in dollars).
I’m so glad the crisis thread exists while USApol is getting filled up with slurs and crazed statements
man this thread is always soyjaking at mainstream stocks going down 0,00000001%, its like a baby getting keys jangled on their face
>>2566249#TheBanksAreRunningOutOfMoney
>>2566561yeah it could be that or people are getting squeezed and assets that are stores of value are getting liquidated, which means the banks are out of money
The curse we indigenous have put on the market worked
>>2568775Sounds like great news but im sure generation alpha has even worse brainrot to consume.
>>2568775Because consoles and PC are expensive as shit. If they play any vidya at all it's F2P mtx hell phone games.
>>2568775Business… is booming
>>2568959Gen Alpha is too busy watching brainrot on tiktok to play video games and buy Counter Strike skins.
https://discoveryalert.com.au/yen-carry-trade-collapse-2025-global-impacts/Yen Carry Trade Collapse Threatens Global Financial Stability
<Understanding the Yen Carry Trade Mechanism
>Financial institutions have leveraged interest rate differentials between major economies for decades, creating complex interdependencies that shape global market dynamics. The Japanese yen carry trade emerged as perhaps the most influential yet overlooked mechanism driving worldwide asset appreciation over the past thirty years. This strategy involves borrowing funds at Japan's historically suppressed interest rates and deploying capital into higher-yielding investments across international markets, but the current yen carry trade collapse threatens to unwind decades of accumulated positions.
<What Exactly Is a Yen Carry Trade?
>The yen carry trade operates through a relatively straightforward mechanism that has generated substantial profits for institutional and retail investors alike. Market participants borrow Japanese yen at near-zero interest rates, convert these funds to foreign currencies, and invest in assets offering superior returns. The profit emerges from the interest rate differential between Japan's ultra-low borrowing costs and higher yields available in US equities, European bonds, emerging market securities, and global real estate ventures.
>This strategy's effectiveness depends on two fundamental market conditions: Japan maintaining its accommodative monetary policy stance and yen exchange rates remaining stable or depreciating against major currencies. For three decades, these assumptions proved remarkably durable, enabling trillions of dollars in capital flows that supported asset price appreciation worldwide.
<The Three-Decade Foundation That Built Global Markets
>Japan's commitment to ultra-low interest rates created an unprecedented source of cheap funding that institutional investors utilised to amplify returns across asset classes. The Bank of Japan maintained its benchmark rate near zero percent for approximately thirty years, with periods of negative interest rates following the 2008 financial crisis. This policy stance effectively subsidised global risk-taking by providing virtually free capital to sophisticated market participants.
>The carry trade mechanism operated as a "silent money printer" that channelled Japanese savings into worldwide investments without drawing significant regulatory attention or public scrutiny. Unlike quantitative easing programmes that generated substantial political debate, carry trades functioned through private market transactions that escaped broader policy discussions despite their systemic importance.
<Why the Carry Trade Infrastructure Is CrackingJapan's Monetary Policy Pivot Creates Structural Disruption
>The Bank of Japan's recent policy adjustments have fundamentally altered the global carry trade landscape. Japanese government bond yields surged past 1.7% in 2024, reaching levels not witnessed since 2008 when yields peaked at approximately 1.6%. This yield expansion reflects the central bank's gradual withdrawal from quantitative easing and signals potential normalisation of Japanese interest rates after decades of extreme accommodation.
>The BOJ raised its policy rate from -0.1% to 0.25% in July 2023, marking the first rate increase in approximately seventeen years. While this adjustment appears modest compared to US Treasury yields trading between 4.5% and 5%, the change represents a seismic shift for carry trade economics. Market participants who structured positions assuming perpetually cheap yen funding now face increased borrowing costs that erode profit margins.
<The Mathematics of Carry Trade Destruction
>When Japanese interest rates rise while foreign asset values simultaneously decline, carry trades encounter a devastating double impact. Borrowing costs increase precisely when investment returns deteriorate, creating negative carry scenarios that force rapid position liquidation. Furthermore, the yen's safe-haven status is shattering as global market dynamics shift, with the currency's concurrent strengthening compounding these losses as investors must repay yen-denominated obligations with an appreciating currency.
>This mathematical relationship explains why relatively modest Japanese rate increases can trigger disproportionate market disruptions. Leverage amplifies both profits during favourable conditions and losses when market dynamics reverse. Institutional investors who utilised 10:1 or 20:1 leverage ratios to enhance carry trade returns face magnified losses when positions move against them, contributing to the current yen carry trade collapse. >>2578045this is why america is getting stuck in in more seemingly pointless conflicts
>>2579720how does this effect me
>>2579744It doesn't unless it's an early sign of a liquidity crisis in which case you're so fucked it's not funny
>>2579800What are the chances it's a liquidity crisis?
>>2579818I think it's been high the whole year, money is being molested left and right and banks have been relying on short term borrow for months but this particular BTC crunch seems like it's reacting to interest hikes in Japan
https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/weak-japanese-yen-is-ticking-time-bomb-2025-12-04/
>LONDON, Dec 4 (Reuters) - The Japanese yen is too weak, meaning the gap between the currency’s spot rate and what is consistent with Japan’s economic fundamentals will likely narrow in the coming years. That amplifies risks of a sudden unwind of the yen carry trade.
>The USDJPY cross rate is currently around 155, near the top of its multi-decade range of 80 to 160, having experienced an explosive rally since early 2022 when it was trading near 115.The main driver of this slump has been the yawning yield differentials between the U.S. and Japan.
>While the Federal Reserve and many other central banks were compelled to raise their interest rates sharply in 2022 to combat elevated inflation, the Bank of Japan kept its policy rate negative and maintained full operation of its yield curve control (YCC) program, which manages long-term rates, until March 2024. Only then did it reset its policy target rate back near positive territory at 0.0-0.1%.
>Since then, under Governor Kazuo Ueda, the BOJ has very gingerly raised the policy target rate to the current 0.50%. But that is not only lower than the current U.S. federal funds rate of 3.75-4.00% but also well below Japan’s CPI inflation of 3.0%, meaning Japan’s real interest rate is still deeply negative.
<WRONG TYPE OF INFLATION
>The weak yen has, unsurprisingly, stoked inflation in Japan.
>This should be good news, right?
>For a quarter century, Japan fought against deflation with all sorts of unconventional monetary tools. It was the BOJ that invented ZIRP, NIRP, QE, and YCC, almost all of which other major central banks have imitated and replicated. (Maybe one day the BOJ should be awarded the Nobel Prize in Economics?)
>But the boost in inflation since 2022 has not followed the classic pattern of stimulating output through exports largely because Japan’s aging population has left the country with a shortage of workers.
>Instead, the weak yen has translated into fat profit margins for exporters. This is why Japan’s equities are so in vogue while its economic growth is tepid and inflation is still, in Ueda’s words, more supply-pushed than demand-pulled.
>The BOJ let this situation arise based on the idea that supply-push inflation would one day lead to demand-pull. But we have not yet reached this turning point.
<GET POOR TO GET RICH?
>Japan has instead eked out incremental growth and inflation by artificially reducing its international purchasing power. It’s tantamount to trying to get rich by becoming poor.
>Consider that in 2000, a full decade after the bursting of Japan’s property, equity, and investment bubbles, the country still ranked number three globally in per capita GDP in dollars, behind small tax havens Liechtenstein and Luxembourg.
>Fast forward to 2025, Japan is ranked number 38 in the world, behind Spain, Portugal, the Czech Republic, and Slovenia.
>The main driver here is, of course, the yen. At the current exchange rate, Japan ranks very low for cumulative real dollar GDP growth in the past two decades, but at an exchange rate of 125 – our estimate of fair value using an orthodox statistical approach – Japan’s rankings jump to the top of the league.
>Currency valuation is obviously not a precise exercise, as there are many ways of assessing the relative price of two currencies. That’s especially true in the case of the yen, as one must factor in nominal distortions created by the BOJ’s bloated and complex balance sheet.
>But Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama has stated that she believes the fair level of USDJPY is between 120 and 130, so a medium-term target of 125 seems reasonable.
>If you are still not persuaded, just visit Japan. That would most likely convince you that the country does not have the same per capita income as the Czech Republic.
<WHAT COULD STRENGTHEN JPY?
>Given that the yen’s weakness is not consistent with the country’s fundamentals, what could cause the gap to narrow?
>Narrowing yield differentials is one obvious potential trigger. The BOJ – wary of elevated inflation – could raise rates faster than many traders expect, while the Fed could cut rates quickly in the face of a weakening labor market.
>The second possible trigger is repatriation of Japan’s foreign earnings to fund capex for technology upgrades. Japan, like the U.S., has good reason to try to reshore manufacturing for national security reasons, and artificial intelligence and robotics are perfect for a country with Japan’s demographics.
>A third trigger could be Tokyo changing market expectations. If investors expect USDJPY to trade lower, capital outflows from Japan could be curtailed rapidly, even if a protracted period of massive QE and large fiscal deficits have somewhat eroded the yen’s safe-haven appeal.
>Some of us still remember October 7, 1998, when USDJPY collapsed from 134 to 120 in one day. The Long-Term Capital Management crisis and Russian government debt default were proximate causes, but the huge yen carry trades were the kindling ready to burn.
>And there are plenty of reasons to believe such carry trades are huge today. >>2517297Crisis status?
>>2586219What does this mean?
>>2586273The "unrealized loss" part means that the value of the bonds has declined without the bonds being sold. This is happening even as the price to purchase those bonds have also declined, though apparently not enough to make buying them attractive. In essence, no one is buying Japanese bonds from these regional banks, which means they're being loaded with bad assets they can't sell, because they'd lose money on the transaction, thus "realizing" the loss.
I am officially reopening the CRISIS thread.
Clocking in to post in /crisis/, as did my father, and my father's father before him.
>>2614061It's just a nuisance, chill the fuck out, lmao
USA ECONOMIC INDICATORS FORECAST (Q1-Q2 2026)
< INDICATOR FORECAST TREND
> Real GDP Growth 1.5% - 1.9% (Annualized)
<Slowing / Below Trend
> Inflation (CPI/PCE) 2.9% - 3.5%
<Sticky / Elevated
> Unemployment Rate 4.5% - 4.7% <Rising Modestly
> Fed Funds Rate 3.25% - 3.75%
<Gradual Cuts
> Consumer Spending 1.6% Growth
<Weak / Decelerating
> Business Investment High (AI/Tech driven)
<Divergent (Booming)
>>2614077All looks good, chill the fuck out, lmao
>>2614080keep coping bourgesisiecuck
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