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/leftypol/ - Leftist Politically Incorrect

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Today a very much of fictitious "value" was loss on them Wall StreetZ thx to Trumpfgd's tariff's on Choynah. The US A"I" conglomerate is a complete bubble. Laydowns going on in the US. Real estate market status in US: fugged.

Let's celebrate the impovireshment of the first world while China keeps rising! Please post them stonks & predictions.

This is a pro-eggplant/brinjal/aubergine 🍆 thread and also anti-tomato 🍅 thread. Please respexts these common sense sensibilities. Thx.

🦀🦀🦀🦀

File: 1760191724564.jpeg (18.89 KB, 447x447, images-17.jpeg)

Thread archivers, akin to those in the official US & China threads are more than welcome here!

finally, the old /crisis/ thread died

Gold: what’s behind the boom?

This week the price of gold in US dollars hit $4000 per troy oz. This is an historic high (at least in nominal dollars). But even that high looks set to be surpassed, with investment bank Goldman Sachs forecasting $4900 per oz by year end. And the gold price in other major currencies has also been rising.

https://thenextrecession.wordpress.com/2025/10/09/gold-whats-behind-the-boom/
>In slumps, the gold price can rise as an asset to hold (hoard) in crises, waiting for better times. But in its current boom, gold is increasingly driven by speculative demand. Such speculation will collapse in a slump and so will stock, bitcoin and gold prices.
(Morxist analysis) 👍

>>2517304

I don't think gold could plummet as dramatically as things like buttcoin or inflated tech stocks, because gold can never completely lose all of its value, it will always be a finite real-world resource with practical value. The whole central draw of gold for investors is that its a relatively stable and resilient commodity, it is seen as the "safe" non-volatile investment, which is why gold prices/demand tend to increase when the economy is doing badly and gold prices decrease when the economy is doing well.

>Real estate market status in US: fugged.

They will never let this happen.

File: 1760195637036.png (288.51 KB, 1470x692, ClipboardImage.png)


>>2517297
Wondered what happened to this thread, tried to find it to ask about this stuff about an 'AI' bubble.
Wish the jannies would be at least hafl-strict about the deluge of shitpost OP's made every day.

So. what this 'AI Bubble' all about anons? Is USA economy toast?

File: 1760197303502.png (220.99 KB, 1200x666, ClipboardImage.png)

>>2517374
the term "bubble" generally refers to stocks being "overvalued."

A stock market bubble implies that the prices of financial assets (shares, derivatives, etc.) become disconnected from the real values created in the sphere of production. These assets often do not correspond to actual increases in value-producing activity, or to put it another way, in real surplus value extracted through the exploitation of labor.

Investors bet on fictitious or at least exaggerated expectations of future profitability, not on the current or potential production of value measured by Socially Necessary Labor Time, which can be calculated by capitalists as a statistic of production, assuming they actually care about such metrics. There's a displacement of capital from productive investment (tied to SNLT) to speculative ventures, inflating values based on perception and momentum.

This creates contradictions, as the inflated values must eventually reconcile with real value production, leading to crises when the bubble bursts.

Now, some anons on here get excited when they see asset bubbles burst, because they think it represents the destruction of the bourgeoisie. But really it just represents financial loss among the lower strata of the bourgeoisie, and a consolidation of even more wealth among the biggest bourgeoisie.

The biggest bourgeoisie practice what is called insider trading with impunity. You can see legislators btw also practicing insider trading. People like Nancy Pelosi for example always outperform the market. If you know when certain regulations are going to be passed, and the impact those regulations will have on the market, you can exit asset bubbles before the general population does, selling while the price is still high. You can also get into certain markets ahead of the rest of the population when you know a new bubble is about to be created. For example if you know a war is going to happen before the news is even reporting on it, you can invest in weapons companies and reap some of the profits they are about to make.

Lastly the bourgeoisie practice what is called short selling, which allows them to profit even when the market crashes. They are able to do this because commercial and investment banking has been totally deregulated, and the government will just bail out the banks if they hold onto a bunch of useless assets.

Say you're a big porky, and you have a bunch of shares of stocks that you think are about to crash in value. Well you take them to an investment bank. You say "give me a loan based on the face value of these stocks." The bank agrees even if it's risky. You can use the face value of a stock as collateral for a low interest loan even if the value of that stock is about to crash. The bank will be left "holding the bag." Meanwhile you take that loan, which you are still obligated to repay, and you wait for the value of the stock to crash on the market. Once the value of the stock is low, you buy up the shares cheap with your loan money, and ride those shares back up through recovery from the crash, since stocks usually have a period of recovery after a crash where they regain their lost value. This allows you to make back the money you would have lost, repay the loan interest and eventually take back the collateral as well. The bank eats the loss and gets bailed out by the government. This is what happened in Wall Street in 2008. Short selling can also happen the "inverse" way, pic related.

It doesn't matter whether it's finance, insurance, real estate, commodity production, software, or whatever. You can have a bubble in any market. Usually a few make it out richer than before while the lower strata of the bourgeoisie fall for the hype and lose money.

>>2517374

Some tech CEOs conned investors into believing that they have the means to develop advanced superintelligent AI that will replace all human labor and change the world, the dumb investors believed it and invested, the tech CEOs used their investment money to generate more hype and attract more investors, and so on. Basically Bitcoin all over again, but worse.

>>2517423
There's a sucker born every minute, and a lie travels around the world while the truth is still putting its shoes on.

>>2517423
>>2517411
Thanks. What's with the AI companies now all scrambling for government/military contracts? trying to find a proverbial lifeboat to stay afloat and continue the scam? Or is this a sincere effort from the MIC in this direction?

>>2517425

Well the problem isn't human gullibility or greed which are universal and eternal truths; the problem is our society, our system, allowed these rich tech CEOs to get so rich and have so much freedom that they could pull a stunt like this to begin with.

>>2517440
It's both the market is trying to stay afloat AND there are still true believers in the MIC who think this stuff is a magic bullet that can fix everything.

Let me give you a civilian sector example. I work in traffic engineering and AI has begun to replace people that produce actual traffic data. People used to watch videos and actually count traffic using specialized applications then fill out spreadsheets and sell those to clients. Now you have AI producing a lot of data that is sometimes surprisingly accurate, but sometimes absolute garbage. Then major roadway engineering decisions get made based off of that questionable data. (I could go into a lot more detail in this regard, but I'll keep it simple)

>>2517440
>Thanks. What's with the AI companies now all scrambling for government/military contracts? trying to find a proverbial lifeboat to stay afloat and continue the scam?

As the bubble grows, they have to keep finding bigger more important investors to recoup their losses, and the government is the best investor you'll ever find because they have mountains of cash to invest and they're happy to invest it because it doesn't come out of their own pocket, it comes out of ours.

>>2517440
Yes, like you said, it is the structure of society itself. Even if you do reforms like placing an upper limit on the wealth an individual is allowed to command, the bourgeoisie will continue to exist as a class. In reality, the wealth of a CEO like Musk (net worth 500 Billion now) could be distributed among 10, 100, 1000, 10,000, etc. bourgeoisie, and the capitalist economy would continue to function similarly: based on exploitation of labor for surplus value. Credit would still expand rapidly, fueling speculation. Investors would still borrow to buy assets, driving up prices, which then attract more credit. Fictitious capital would still create a fundamental disconnect between the actual forces of production and the expected ROI, leading to a crash.

What's the likelihood that this might be another nothingburger?

We've had several moments this year like this one and the market bounced back around. The only difference is that there's been a lot of people losing their jobs, myself included, but that could turn around again if line goes back up again.

>>2517451
>it doesn't come out of their own pocket, it comes out of ours.
assuming there's anything in "our" pockets to begin with. I will say though that these people have mastered the art of indirect theft. People have trouble seeing through abstractions.

Johnny has $9 in his wallet, and he can buy 2 bags of apples for $4.50. He knows what the purchasing power of his money is.

Along comes a pickpocket who nabs $4.50 from Johnny's wallet. Johnny knows his purchasing power has been cut in half. It is obvious. Johnny can now only buy 1 bag of apples.

But let's say in a different situation Johnny has $9 in a bank, and Johnny's government prints a lot of bills of exchange (fiat currency), decreasing the purchasing power of Johnny's money by 1/2. Johnny can now only buy 1 bag of apples. Does Johnny blame his government the same way he blames the pickpocket? No. because in real life such changes happen slowly, imperceptibly, not all at once. It is slow change taking place in a system. There is no one person you can point to and blame easily.

Inflation robs you slowly by decreasing the purchasing power of your savings, assuming you are lucky enough to have any. This means if you actually bother to save money, you are punished for it by watching its purchasing power decrease. But if you spend it all at once, you are called wasteful and stupid.

The capitalist says "why don't you just invest it in profitable enterprises? You will make an ROI that exceeds the rate of inflation." But the capitalist is just trying to push your savings into an asset bubble that is already overvalued so that he can make out with your petty bourgeois investment when the market crashes, and he inevitably gets out of the bubble before it pops, because he has insider trading info.

Meanwhile, let's say you are in debt. It is harder to get a loan, yet you have to borrow to get things done. Usurious leaches put you further into debt. Especially medical debt student loan debt, car loan debt etc. Things people in the first world are expected to take on to be considered "normal."

It's a bleak situation.

>>2517455
well when the market crashes and bounces back more and more frequently, that's called volatility. it means it's harder and harder to guess when the next crash is going to come, making investors more hesitant to put money in the stock market.

>>2517455

I think we are at the very least headed for a recession over this. You can add up the numbers that all these companies have poured into AI and compare it with how much revenue AI has generated and the results are not good. It would take a miracle to recoup these losses, but that "miracle" would be the AI successfully replacing millions of jobs and creating massive unemployment and poverty and civil unrest. The only company that has actually made any money from this is NVIDIA, who are now the richest company in the world from selling their GPUs to big tech companies for AI training. But even they will be pretty fucked when the bubble bursts because all the big tech companies would stop buying their GPUs and all of NVIDIA's datacenter revenue (their main source of revenue now by far) would dry up.


>>2517471
>The only company that has actually made any money from this is NVIDIA, who are now the richest company in the world from selling their GPUs to big tech companies for AI training
When there's a gold rush, sell pickaxes and shovels.

I booked some profits on my multibaggers just 2 days ago. I'm even now. I don't care of the market crashes, I'll invest more when it does.

Honestly with how much Trump just does Pump and Dumps (there was someone who shorted some crypto 30 minutes before the Tariff announcement and made off with something like $200 mil in profit) I'm considering just buying the dip next week.

I think Vance is investing in a company that's buying up land from farmers going out of business. Its horrific vulture capitalism but it could make some money.

File: 1760216356110.png (3.41 KB, 500x250, Oekaki.png)

I'm an oldschool leftypol poster from the 8chan days. I occasionally lurk here. Seeing a billion shitty anime goyslop threads existing (including like 20 USApol generals in the catalog) but the crisis-thread dying shows me how much this place fell off. I was actually looking for this thread in the morning. When I couldn't find it, I assumed that it must have been moved to a new section like labor or something…So thank you to OP for reviving this thread, and thank you to everyone participating.

>>2517791
you must be smoking crack uyghur there's no anime on /leftypol/
maybe you're browsing the overboard and getting fed all the slop from /siberia/

File: 1760216642363.png (3.41 KB, 500x250, Oekaki.png)

>>2517365
The real estate market in Europe and the US has definitely slowed down. The only juicy parts left for institutional investors are the data centers, as well as logistics centers for all the stuff bought online. The interest rate situation, general economic uncertainty (in part fueled by Trump's retardation), and lowered consumption all play a part. The focus has shifted to renovating old under-used properties, for example large shopping mall buildings, in a desperate attempt to weather the storm. This doesn't mean that rents for average joes have gone down or anything, of course. The renting market and the property market diverge quite often.
t. work in the real estate field

>>2517796
I don't mean anime in a literal sense but just internet slop like talking about Destiny, HasanAbi and all the other inane stuff done by weebs. It's cool that there is a labor board now though.

>>2517799
Pic related

File: 1760216904942.png (244.4 KB, 1119x832, ClipboardImage.png)


>>2517799
And one more field I forgot: The sovereign wealth funds of oil states are heavily investing into renewable energy facilities worldwide.
My current understanding of the situation is that a lot of institutional investors are scared and uncertain, so they are holding back for the most part.
>>2517745
I really do think the tariff announcements are basically insider trading. He will walk it back come late October, while his friends make a buck or two. In the meanwhile, his mouthbreathing fans will think he is being "tough on China" and soyface their way into a recession

File: 1760218377854-0.png (348.7 KB, 1099x945, ClipboardImage.png)

File: 1760218377854-1.png (30.11 KB, 345x342, ClipboardImage.png)

not a rigged economy btw

>>2517818
>I really do think the tariff announcements are basically insider trading
clearly. there's a reason US legislators in both parties tend to outperform the average investor on the stock market. Insider trading is a crime in name only. Nobody gets prosecuted in practice unless they do it in the most blatant and obvious fashion. And even then it's just a slap on the wrist and rich people prison is basically house arrest at a country club

File: 1760221720125-0.png (237.88 KB, 1025x769, ClipboardImage.png)

File: 1760221720125-1.png (577.68 KB, 1098x831, ClipboardImage.png)

File: 1760221720125-2.png (288.84 KB, 1090x591, ClipboardImage.png)

>>2517449
>It's both the market is trying to stay afloat AND there are still true believers in the MIC who think this stuff is a magic bullet that can fix everything.
How much does it even matter if this stuff utterly does not work? Will the Military as a cash-box basically be used to successfully keep afloat the top AI companies, regardless? militaries are pretty famous for throwing around money with little oversight.
>>2517791
>So thank you to OP for reviving this thread, and thank you to everyone participating.
Np. Rare good thread outside of Generals!

>>2517890
pic 3 wouldn't be possible if MUH VETZ weren't getting kickbacks from the burger reich in the first place

https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1976758886003593615

>What Trump announced today, a 100% tariff on Chinese imports and new export controls on critical U.S. software is one of those moments that shifts the trajectory of the global economy, whether or not it’s actually implemented. Even if these measures never fully take effect, the threat alone changes how companies, investors, and governments behave. It signals that the world’s two largest economies are no longer trying to manage their rivalry, they’re preparing to decouple.


>If it does go through, the effects could be dramatic. It’s not just a rerun of the trade wars from 2018, this would be more like a modern echo of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930, when the U.S. tried to protect itself during the Great Depression by raising tariffs on thousands of imported goods. That backfired spectacularly: other countries retaliated, world trade collapsed, and deflation not inflation deepened as global demand evaporated. Something similar could happen here, though through a 21st century lens.


>The immediate effect might look inflationary with higher prices on imported goods, disrupted supply chains, and pressure on consumer prices. But beyond that short term shock lies a deflationary risk that’s even more dangerous. If tariffs and export bans slow trade, capital investment falls, profits contract, and liquidity tightens. Companies that rely on Chinese inputs or American software would see margins squeezed, while consumers would pull back on spending as uncertainty rises. That combination of weaker trade, falling investment, and tightening credit is the same deflationary loop that dragged the global economy into depression in the 1930s.


>Even if Trump never follows through, the market psychology has already changed. Businesses will accelerate efforts to exit China, investors will demand higher risk premiums, and central banks already stuck between weak growth and sticky prices will have even less room to maneuver. China, facing export loss and capital flight, could respond with monetary easing, devaluing the yuan and exporting deflation globally. Meanwhile, the U.S. might see falling asset prices as earnings projections and global demand both deteriorate.


>What’s really happening is that globalization which for decades acted as an inflation dampener by keeping goods cheap and capital mobile is being dismantled. The U.S. and China are shifting from an era of interdependence to one of managed hostility. Whether these tariffs are enforced or not, the deflationary undertow is already forming with slower trade, weaker confidence, and a world economy that’s starting to choke on its own fragmentation. This is the financial climate change of our era, where the winds of integration reverse and the chill of contraction begins to set in.

>>2517305
The crisis is over, long live the crisis!

>>2517745
I would be extremely weary, seems like this time trump hit a soft spot in the US economy, the retard tariffed the biggest speculatory market right now

https://www.ianwelsh.net/china-is-going-to-leave-the-us-what-america-left-britain-nothing/

>So, China has slapped draconian export controls not just on rare earths, but on all technology related to rare earths. If you want rare earths you have to beg for permission and certify it won’t be used for anything military or anything technologically related. If you want the rare earths or tech to catch up, you can’t have them. (Like when the US banned advanced lithography machines.)


>As an extra fillip, China has also announced that all American ships must pay port fees. (This is symbolic, few ships are flagged American.)


>The writing was on the wall for this when China, just recently, told all domestic firms to not buy Western chips. That mean that they had enough of the chip technology stack that they felt they were immune to counter-sanctions.


>And now the whoop-ass.


>You can thank Trump for this. His chip and Huawei sanctions taught the Chinese they had to control their entire own tech stack. Before that they preferred American, Korean and Taiwanese chips. No big Chinese company would buy Chinese crap chips. If the US hadn’t decided on its moronic trade war, China would have allowed it to gracefully age out of its Empire, letting it keep some areas of technological superiority.


>As usual, the Chinese played this ice cold. They took their lumps, they devalued the yuan, they made concessions. When Biden came in, he doubled down so they realized it wasn’t just a democratic hiccup, but core policy agreed to by both parties. Then Trump came in and went on his insane tariff blitz. Worked against his vassals, but China doesn’t have to take America’s crap any more and it isn’t.


>Now, as the kids like to say, having fucked around, America and the West are about to “find out.” Revenge served ice fucking cold.


>I want to be really clear on a couple things here.


>First, China is not going to leave the US or the West anything meaningful in terms of tech lead. They are going to take the tech lead, with the industry to back it up, in essentially everything (they’re already in the lead in at least 80% of areas, so don’t kid yourself about the rest.) And they are going to break the US’s hold on the Americas too. By the time China is done with America, they’ll be lucky to still have have Mexico and Canada as vassals (which is why they might invade and is why the US is threatening Venezuela before it gets a full suite of Chinese and Russian weapons.)


>Second: if you are in charge of any country in the world that is an American vassal and you have an autism score above 90 and the smallest amount of interest in the future of your country, your job right now is to transfer your allegiance to China and get the best deal you can in exchange. The longer you wait, the worse the deal will be.


>I do mean everyone: Canada, Europe, Australia, Japan, South Korea.


>Everyone.


>Get out, now. The US has already lost the war, and while there may be a lot of screaming and even a shooting war (without rare earths, the US needs to fight a war in the next two years, or wait tent years as it rebuilds its military stack) it’s over. Just like Japan had already lost even before Pearl Harbor (and that sort of attack is the danger now.)


>China is going to run the world for the next forty to sixty years, minimum, barring ecological collapse. It has zero love for the old hegemons. The US, the Anglo countries and the Euros will not be treated kindly out of some feeling of kinship or because they are needed, neither is true. Only Australia and Canada have something to offer the Chinese might want. Everyone else is just wasting assets.


>Besides, the Americans are bastards. Right now they aren’t offering anything but “stay our vassal and let us loot you.” Pull out your knife and your pen. Sign an agreement with the Chinese, and drive a knife right between America’s shoulder blades.


>I’d say “they do it to you” but they’re natural born bullies and you’re already on your knees begging them not to hurt you more. (EU, I am especially looking at you. To say you have the dignity of slaves would be to malign slaves, who at least have no choice.)


>America’s done. All statesmanship for the next fifteen years will be about handling the fallout. If the West had any statesmen, even one, that might be good news.

>>2517895
>pic 3 wouldn't be possible if MUH VETZ weren't getting kickbacks from the burger reich in the first place
okay? that really is beside the point.

>>2517307
even if gold prices plummet, they're still a good long term bet against inflation .the purchasing power of the US dollar will continue to weaken against any average basket of commodities, the point is to put your dollars into commodities that don't go rot, like Gold, to hedge against inflation.

>>2518205
People are allowed to make their own separate points in a conversation.

File: 1760246918135.jpg (339.46 KB, 1000x999, Engels Marx.jpg)

Has anyone noticed that the imperial core capitalist class is retreating from seeking out profit from commodity production because it's a lot of work and not very profitable, and the are instead relying on usury and rent as sources of passive income? That's why they love Software-As-A-Service so much. Streaming Apps, Cloud Storage Apps, AI Genearation, all services with subscriptions that you pay over and over. Instead of buying a piece of software once and for all as a physical commodity on an installation disc, or as a digital license, they've pivoted to these subscription models.

>>2518229
if i am understanding correctly, this is the informalization of the western economies as they took advantage of lower wages needed etc in india and china.

the term you need to find more information on this topic is 'rent-seeking'

>>2518233 (cont)
any software solution, you should consider as doing something on a remote server that you could possibly do on your own computer, and even if not in the current configuration you could slot your own computer in to the solution for the issue, a better approach/implementation could make it so your computer could accomplish this task or communicate to other computers to accomplish such adequately. any time you do saas, it's the capital owner buying developer time or a lone developer seeking a passive income from initial labor-investment - rent seeking

>>2518236 (cont)
i worded that pretty badly really it's the disconnect between the actual optimized solution (open source, autists are allowed to edit in mathematically optimal solutions in the program's source code) and the solution that is a single autist tried as hard as they could to give you a 20 dollars a month service to do this one thing that you could accomplish with 4 hours and chatgpt vibecoding (hyperbolic but same idea)

>>2518236
>lone developer seeking a passive income from initial labor-investment - rent seeking
You do get some good ones who bill for actual hours worked on features etc instead of liscencing, good luck getting one of them though since they're generally already running themselves ragged doing work for existing clients

File: 1760249207431.png (145 KB, 1080x1329, ClipboardImage.png)

>>2517745
>I think Vance is investing in a company that's buying up land from farmers going out of business. Its horrific vulture capitalism but it could make some money.
Based Burgerland haute-bourgeoisie killing the subhuman degenerate Burgerland petite-bourgeoisie.

>>2518240
>>2518240
the existing clients give like income security


>>2518229
>it's a lot of work and not very profitable

I think it has more to do with the bourgeois need to undermine the industrial proletariat and that the size of monopolies has grown to such an extent that even though commodity production is hugely profitable, it simply isn't profitable enough to sustain them.

What's the over under on taco right after Monday?

>>2517411
>This creates contradictions, as the inflated values must eventually reconcile with real value production
Why?

Heads up folks there may be a few dead cat bounces in the way down before you hit the dip
https://wccftech.com/tsmc-could-be-barred-from-selling-chips-to-the-us-under-china-rare-earths-export-control/

>>2518479
Because otherwise you get situations like Enron or in extreme cases the 2008 economic collapse.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/leverage.asp

In a nutshell, being overvalued can lead to situations where a company is over leveraged, or in other words borrowing more money than they can be expected to pay back. In minor cases you're looking at a downsizing situation and diminished economic growth as the company tries to dig itself out of the hole its in. In the case of Enron, shit is so severely fucked that bankruptcy and litigation to try and scrape out some small compensation by whoever loaned them money is the best you can hope for as everyone takes a bite of the big shit sandwich.

In the case of the 08 collapse, the problem is so wide reaching, deep, and endemic that the bubble popping threatens not only the whole industry, or the national economy, but the entire global economic system. In this case you had such wildly fantastic overvaluations of absolute junk, with no hope at all of returning the sort of profits necessary to justify their valuations, that not only the banks holding the assets collapsed, but from there everything which was tied to or based on those worthless assets, creating a domino effect which not only threatened to wipe out tens of trillions of dollars from the global economy but take the entire thing down with it. The damage was so bad that even the US couldn't just eat the cost because it had no assets valuable enough to offset them. China had to come in, buy up all the worthless debt, and basically saved the global economy from imploding on itself.

For a time, anyway. Nothing has changed much from then except everything that was too big to fail has only gotten larger and more prone to failure.

File: 1760316262033.jpg (319.66 KB, 1135x1200, GomD25fWYAAwKE1.jpg)

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2025/10/u-s-china-trade-war-reaches-new-level.html

U.S.-China Trade War Reaches New Level

>Trump’s tariff war has somewhat settled down but for China.


>Trump has, like his predecessor, limited exports of high-end semiconductor chips to China. He also stopped the export of machines and chemicals used to produce chips to China. These measures are extra-territorial. The Dutch company ASML is prohibited to sell its high-end machines for chip production to China because parts of them contain goods or software made in the U. S. of A.


>After Trump imposed additional high tariffs on goods from China the country hit back by limiting exports of rare earth elements. China has a near monopoly on these elements. These are needed to produce modern electric motors, magnets and various sensors and semiconductors the U.S. needs. China has also stopped the import of soy-beans, one of the main products U.S. mid-west farmers depend on.


>Trump had to pull back and did so. Tariffs were temporarily lowered and negotiations with China continued. A new trade agreement was supposed to signed later this month when President Trump and President Xi would meet in South Korea.


>But U.S. negotiators under Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick tried to play hardball. In late September, during the talks,  they imposed further restrictions on China:


<On September 29, 2025, the U.S. Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) released a long-anticipated interim final rule (IFR) that will result in the most dramatic expansion of U.S. export control regulations in years. The IFR, “Expansion of End-User Controls To Cover Affiliates of Certain Listed Entities,” extends export restrictions to any company owned 50% or more, directly or indirectly, by any of the thousands of entities already designated on several Commerce and Treasury Department lists.


<The IFR would also impose a new duty on exporters to investigate the ownership of an end user where there is reason to believe a designated entity holds a minority stake, or is affiliated with, the end user, subject to a strict liability standard for violations.


>The new measures would severely restrict any export of high tech goods to China.


>The country responded in kind:


<Chinese Commerce Ministry (MOFCOM) announced on Thursday that in order to safeguard national security and interests, the ministry will impose export controls on rare earth-related technologies, including rare earth mining, smelting and separation, magnetic material manufacturing, and rare earth secondary resource recycling.


<Technologies and relevant date related to rare earth mining, smelting and separation, metal smelting, magnetic material manufacturing, and rare earth secondary resource recycling, as well as the assembly, debugging, maintenance, repair, and upgrade of related production lines are prohibited from export without permission, the statement said.

>Rare earth elements are used in many U.S. weapons. Each F-35 fighter jet includes some 418 kilogram of rare earth elements, a U.S. destroyer 2,600 kg, a nuclear submarines 4,800 kg. The U.S. has currently no means to produce these themselves.


>There was more to the new Chinese regulation than it seemed:


<This is actually big, potentially huge, notably because China’s new rare earth export controls include a provision (point 4 here: https://mofcom.gov.cn/zwgk/…) whereby anyone using rare earths to develop advanced semiconductors (defined as 14nm-and-below) will require case-by-case approval.


<Which effectively gives China de-facto veto power over the entire advanced semi-conductor supply chain as rare earths are used at critical steps throughout – from ASML (who use rare earths for magnets in their lithography machines: https://asml.com/en/news/storie…) to TSMC.


<The export controls are also extra-territorial: foreign entities must obtain Chinese export licenses before re-exporting products manufactured abroad if they contain Chinese rare earth materials comprising 0.1% or more of the product’s value.


<So China is effectively mirroring the US semiconductor export controls that were used against them, with its own comprehensive extraterritorial control regime, except with rare earths.


>The most advanced semiconductors produced today also use some rare-earth elements. Under China’s new rules each chip sale will need to be licensed by China to ensure that it will not be used for military purposes. If the new rules are handled strictly the U.S. AI-boom will soon go bust.


>Rare earth are not the only field where new Chinese export rules are set to apply:


<Not only did they announce the unprecedented rare earths restrictions that I posted about earlier 👇 (targeted, among others, at the advanced semiconductors sector) but they issued 4 consecutive announcements in total with other export controls on:


– The machines and expertise to process rare earths – not just the rare earths themselves, but all the specialized equipment and technical know-how to turn rare earth into usable materials (obviously making it all the harder to try to move rare earth processing away from China)
– High-performance batteries – specifically those above 300 Wh/kg needed for long-range EVs and advanced drones. And, again, export controls on all the factory equipment to make them too.
– The materials inside batteries – both graphite anodes and cathode materials (the two electrodes that are essential for batteries to function at all). Export controls also cover the specialized equipment to manufacture all of these components.
– Industrial diamonds and cutting tools – the ultra-hard materials that are used ubiquitously in precision manufacturing, for instance to cut silicon wafers for computer chips

<This is absolutely unprecedented. With this China effectively gets veto power over three critical supply chains simultaneously: advanced semiconductors (via rare earths and related equipment), battery-powered vehicles and drones, and precision manufacturing across industries (via superhard materials).


<It will all officially take effect on November 8, in one month.


>China’s move is not really aimed at restricting exports. It just wants to discipline U.S. trade negotiators and push them back in support of free trade:


<During the last round of negotiations with senior American officials in Madrid last month, China’s chief trade negotiator, Vice Premier He Lifeng, asked for the full removal of tariffs and export controls, The Wall Street Journal has reported. The latest rare-earth action, the people said, is a tactic aimed at achieving that goal.


>The U.S. has yet to get understand that. Its response to China’s latest move as predictable as it is doomed to fail:


<Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump – Oct 10, 2025, 20:50 UTC


<It has just been learned that China has taken an extraordinarily aggressive position on Trade in sending an extremely hostile letter to the World, stating that they were going to, effective November 1st, 2025, impose large scale Export Controls on virtually every product they make, and some not even made by them. This affects ALL Countries, without exception, and was obviously a plan devised by them years ago. It is absolutely unheard of in International Trade, and a moral disgrace in dealing with other Nations.


<Based on the fact that China has taken this unprecedented position, and speaking only for the U.S.A., and not other Nations who were similarly threatened, starting November 1st, 2025 (or sooner, depending on any further actions or changes taken by China), the United States of America will impose a Tariff of 100% on China, over and above any Tariff that they are currently paying. Also on November 1st, we will impose Export Controls on any and all critical software.


<It is impossible to believe that China would have taken such an action, but they have, and the rest is History. Thank you for your attention to this matter!


<DONALD J. TRUMP

<PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

>China is well prepared for that move. Its GDP this year will be around 20 trillion. Its total exports per year to the U.S. are around $500 billion, a mere 2.5% of its GDP. China can do without those while the U.S. can not.


>What Trump does not get yet is that the U.S. depends more on imports from China than China depends on exporting to the United States. But the markets do understand that.  Trump’s move may well be the black swan event that will lead to their crash.


>If Trump doesn’t chicken out of this fight the U.S. economy is doomed.

I remember many years ago there were articles talking about how Silicon Valley would have to implode soon because venture capitalists were pouring absurd amounts of money into unprofitable businesses in the hopes they would someday, somehow stop being a burning pit. Is this still an underlying problem (beyond AI), was it overblown, or what? It seems they keep lurching from one fad to the next.

>>2519579
They did it with Amazon, Google and all the other big names. The first decade or so of Amazon was completely unprofitable.

>>2519579
well the thing is that they're unprofitable but not unusable, google for example is barely a profitable company and the only reason it hasn't collapsed is because if it does, half the internet and most companies go down with it

>>2518229
>Has anyone noticed
Yanis Varoufakis wrote that book about it.

>>2519592
What? Google makes an actually insane amount of profit because they peddle ads

>>2519579

This is the defining pattern of capitalism. As private monopolies accrue more capital they use it to make bigger and riskier investments and then the economy blows up.

>>2519579
It's still an underlying problem solved in part by their quasi integration in the American government.

https://x.com/MOFCOM_China/status/1977193939729104997

MOFCOM Spokesperson’s Remarks on China’s Recent Economic and Trade Policies and Measures

Q: On October 9, the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs published an announcement on imposing export control measures on related rare earth items. What are China’s considerations behind this?

A: China’s announcement of export control measures on rare earths and related items is a legitimate action by the Chinese government to refine its export control system in accordance with laws and regulations. In the context of turmoil and frequent military conflicts in the world, China has taken note of the important uses of medium and heavy rare earths and related items in the military field. China, as a responsible major country, employs export controls on related items according to the law, in order to better defend world peace and regional stability, and to fulfill non-proliferation and other international obligations.

China’s export controls are not export bans. Licenses will be granted for eligible applications. Before the measures were announced, China had already notified relevant countries and regions through bilateral export control dialogue mechanisms. China stands ready to work with the rest of the world to step up export control dialogue and exchange, so as to better safeguard the security and stability of global industrial and supply chains.

Q: We have noted that recently the Ministry of Commerce has issued an announcement strengthening export controls on rare earths and related items. Could you please introduce the follow-up measures of implementation?

A: As a responsible major country, China always firmly safeguards its national security and international common security, always takes a just and reasonable principled position and implements export control measures in a prudential and moderate manner. China had made thorough assessment of the measures’ possible impact on industrial and supply chains in advance and is certain that related impact is very limited. Before announcing the measures, China had notified relevant countries and regions through bilateral export control dialogue mechanisms.

Going forward, the Chinese government will conduct reviews in accordance with laws and regulations, grant licenses to eligible applications, as well as actively considering the applicability of facilitation measures such as general licenses and license exemptions to effectively promote legitimate trade. I want to emphasize that China’s export controls are not export bans. All applications of compliant export for civil use can get approval, so that relevant businesses have no need to worry. The Chinese government will work with all countries as always, to firmly safeguard world peace and stability in neighboring regions, and jointly maintain the stability of global industrial and supply chains.

Q: On October 10 EST, the U.S. announced that, in response to China’s export control on rare earths and related items, the U.S. will impose a tariff of 100% on China, and impose export control on all critical software. What are MOFCOM’s comments on this?

A: China has taken note of the situation. On October 9, China released export control measures on rare earths and related items, which are normal actions taken by the Chinese government in accordance with laws and regulations to refine its own export control system. As a responsible major country, China always firmly safeguards its national security and international common security, always takes a just and reasonable principled position and implements export control measures in a prudential and moderate manner. The U.S. remarks reflect textbook “double standard”. For a long time, the U.S. has been overstretching the concept of national security, abusing export control, taking discriminatory actions against China, and imposing unilateral long-arm jurisdiction measures on various products including semiconductor equipment and chips. The U.S. Commerce Control List (CCL) covers over 3000 items, whereas China’s Export Control List of Dual-use Items only cover about 900. The U.S. has long imposed the ‘de minimis’ rule for export controls, with a lowest threshold of 0%. These measures of U.S. side have seriously harmed the legitimate and lawful rights and interests of companies, severely disrupted the international economic and trade order, and gravely undermined the security and stability of global industrial and supply chains.

Particularly since the China-U.S. economic and trade talks in Madrid in September, the U.S., in just 20 days, has introduced a string of new restrictive measures targeting China. It has put multiple Chinese entities on the Entity List and Special Designated National List; arbitrarily expanded the scope of control over businesses with the Affiliates Rule that affects thousands of Chinese companies; and persisted with the implementation of Section 301 measures targeting China’s maritime, logistics and shipbuilding industries in disregard of China’s concerns and goodwill. The U.S. actions have severely harmed China’s interests and undermined the atmosphere of bilateral economic and trade talks, and China is resolutely opposed to them.

Willful threats of high tariffs are not the right way to get along with China. China’s position on the trade war is consistent: we do not want it, but we are not afraid of it. China urges the U.S. to promptly correct its wrong practices, adhere to the important consensuses of the phone calls between the two heads of state, protect the hard-won outcomes of consultations, continue to use the China-U.S. economic and trade consultation mechanism, and address respective concerns and properly manage differences through dialogues and on the basis of mutual respect and equal-footed consultation, so as to ensure the stable, sound and sustainable development of the China-U.S. economic and trade relationship. If the U.S. insists on going the wrong way, China will surely take resolute measures to protect its legitimate rights and interests.

Q: The U.S. will impose port fees on related Chinese vessels on October 14. We have noted that China has announced countermeasures in response. What is China’s comment?

A: On April 17, the UStranshumanistounced the final action of Section 301 investigation into China’s maritime, logistics and shipbuilding sectors and will impose port fees on related Chinese vessels from October 14. The U.S. practice severely violates the WTO rules and breaches the principle of equality and mutual benefit of the China-U.S. Maritime Transport Agreement, and is a typical act of unilateralism. China has repeatedly expressed its strong dissatisfaction and firm  opposition.

Since the economic and trade talks in London, China has engaged in consultations and communications with the U.S. on the measures mentioned above, provided a written reply to the groundless accusations against China in the Section 301 investigation report, and made recommendations of potential bilateral cooperation in related industries. However, the U.S. has shown a negative attitude and willfully persists in implementing those measures, issuing a notice on October 3 setting out the specific requirements for imposing fees on Chinese vessels. In order to safeguard its legitimate and lawful rights and interests, China has to take countermeasures and decides to charge special port fees on U.S.-linked vessels in accordance with the Regulations of the People’s Republic of China on International Ocean Shipping and other laws and regulations. China’s countermeasures are necessary acts of passive defense and are aimed at maintaining the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese industries and enterprises, as well as the level playing-field of the international shipping and shipbuilding markets. It is hoped the U.S. will face up to its mistake, move with China in the same direction, and return to the right track of dialogue and consultation.

So when is the PLUNGE GANG going to be fully back in action?

https://thenextrecession.wordpress.com/2025/10/14/the-ai-bubble-and-the-us-economy

Basically: if AI investment fails, the entire US economy collapses.

>>2523242
That's a pretty harrowing read. If ai goes bust and recession hits then depression can't be far behind, and I don't think the US has any good answer for that.

>>2517745
you might be too late

GME

>>2518229
>>2518229
>because it's a lot of work and not very profitable
market competition leads to monopoly and technological stagnation. as the organic composition of capital increases the rate of profit declines and the bourgeois increasingly relies on monopoly rent. everything you described is based on rent

Gold is supposed to be one of the most stable of commodities so its volality ought to be a pretty good indication of investor confidence in an economy - when investors lose confidence in the economy they put their money into "safe haven" assets like gold, and so gold prices tend to increase whenever the economy is headed for impending disaster. Pic related.

Americans can’t afford their cars any more and Wall Street is worried

https://archive.is/ahg9K#selection-2217.4-2217.76

<Goldman Sachs’ president warns ‘it’s not going to be pretty’ as default fears mount

File: 1761253447980.png (46.26 KB, 1306x793, ClipboardImage.png)

>>2533799
you know who's at fault for this?

>>2533803
Who said that though, amerikkkan treatlerites are mad about tariffs and begging for free market policies so they can buy cheap BYD cars

With things like the Dotcom Bubble, at least all the investment was being poured into reuseable resources like internet infrastructure and mass data storage which was still valuable and useful after the crash, but with AI all that money is just going into Nvidia GPUs and a GPU as we all know is not a reusable resource, it's a light bulb where you use it and it burns out and it becomes a piece of trash. That's all that the AI bubble will leave behind - trash.

>>2533812
Do you really think sakaists would do that? Just go on the internet and make up things to be mad about?

>>2533852
If you have a used GPU better than a 2070 pls send it to me


>>2533943

Just be patient and try to hold out a little longer. Pretty soon the AI bubble is going to burst and GPUs will become dirt cheap after that, the world will be overflowing with so many unwanted GPUs from abandoned AI training projects, it will be a buyer's market, probably the cheapest you'll ever see GPUs get.

>>2534119
Mashallah

File: 1761265904110.jpg (54.36 KB, 624x468, G3yV2dFXsAASqoR.jpg)

https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1980622702319743239

>Stock market concentration has reached 1800s levels: Information Technology & Communications stocks now reflect a record 45% of total US market cap. This percentage has DOUBLED over the last 10 years. Tech is now larger than Energy & Materials, which together accounted for 41% of the market at their 1950s peak. The last time any industry had such dominance was the transport sector in the 1880s. In other words, the market is the least diversified in ~140 years. Technology stocks effectively are the stock market.

if/when the AI bubble pops there will 100% be a recession

>>2517297
>The US A"I" conglomerate is a complete bubble.
Its a bubble like WWW-bubble was. Not a complete bubble but there is hype and air. We still have internet despite WWW-bubble exploding.

File: 1761355630889.webp (9.14 KB, 1018x632, economic-cycle.webp)

>>2535718
There will always be recessions at least under capitalism.

>>2535724
>Its a bubble like WWW-bubble was. Not a complete bubble but there is hype and air. We still have internet despite WWW-bubble exploding.

See: >>2533852


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