The 2010s marked the effective end of most remaining communist insurgencies. Although many had been in decline for years, it was during that decade that they finally collapsed. The Naxal movement, communist insurgencies in Africa and Southeast Asia, and the last remnants of the IRA either fizzled out or ended with arrests after failed attacks and raids. In 2023, the Zapatistas dissolved their Autonomous Municipalities. The conflicts that leftist magazines and academics once wrote papers about and sometimes even traveled to for the occasional photoshoot are now over, so what is to done?
The Jungle deviation is finally over
>inb4 S, bloodgasm and MaoAnon bitching
They've been saying the NPA in the Philippines are about to give up and put down their arms for decades lmao. Same goes for the Naxalites and other insurgent groups.
>>2614193What do you propose communists should do in these developing countries? Wait half a century until "multipolarity" hopefully builds up the local proletariat enough so they outnumber the subsistence farmers?
>>2614215can’t speak for the Philippines, but as a south asian I can say while the Naxalites are not fully dead, the chances are not looking good for them. They once had thousands of armed cadres across central India, which is no longer the case. Now they are confined to very isolated areas where they are holding out, and they are not fighting the government the way they used to. I would assume the Filipino groups are very similar, essentially in pure survival mode
>>2614215I propose they give up, yes. A communist cannot be a sentimental idiot.
>>2614215They are successful, because it's a protracted peoples war.
>>2614315I would suppose that the mobile phone ruined any chance of their survival.
>>2614193What's the future of conflict going to be?
>>2614215>They've been saying the NPA in the Philippines are about to give up and put down their arms for decades lmao. Same goes for the Naxalites and other insurgent groups.The thing about the Zapatistas is also just false. They restructured their organization to adapt to changing times. They didn't "dissolve."
>>2614485While they didn't dissolve, they're struggling under the narco conflict. They're still around sure, but they're not in a great position either, Chiapas is still dirt poor, young people in the EZLN are losing interest in maintaining it and move to the city instead. I mean I hope they'll maintain, but I imagine it's going to get tougher and tougher to do that. Basically they're also just in survival mode
>adventurism and activism failed for the 1085765th time?
Damn if only Marx considered this and opposed both
>>2614609Engels picked up a gun in 1848 and fought under August Willich, but Marx was too busy soaking his rash in saltwater and ruthlessly criticizing all the exists.
>>2614609It worked in China though.
>>2614855>popular urban social revolution is the same as sitting in your own filth in the middle of nowhere and terrorising workers once a decade as praxisEngels shared the same opinion as Marx
>>2614889The long march failed.
>>2614899>The long march failed.What? Mao reunified China during the civil war? What other method do you propose?
>>2614944It was Japanese who destroyed the nationalists and later the Soviets giving Mao support that won him the civil war.
>>2614970Had he not done the long march, he'd have been killed by the nationalists, the long march allowed him to stall until he had a better opportunity to take over.
but frankly I don't think any of the current leftists insurgencies are any close to that, they have no international ally helping them. their failures are just the consequence of the fall of the USSR
>>2614481Actually, it was the BJP government fixing railway lines and posting more cops, that's basically it.
>>2614889>>2614985The Chinese Civil War was unlike almost any other conflict. Its causes and dynamics were so unusually distinct that it’s difficult to analyze it using the same frameworks applied to other wars. The Nationalists weakness against both Japan and the Communists largely originated in how Chiang Kai-shek conducted the Northern Expedition. He aimed to complete it as quickly as possible, and while he succeeded, that pace resulted in a fragile political and military foundation.
He didn’t merely grant amnesty to many warlords, he effectively allowed them to retain their existing power bases as long as they wore KMT uniforms. At the same time, he permitted triads and organized crime to continue operating in major cities. On the surface, the Nationalist government appeared strong, but in reality it was the very definition of a structure built on clay feet.
This isn’t just my opinion, it was also the view of American generals assigned to assist the KMT during the war against Japan. And like
>>2614985 pointed out, regardless of how much some Western Maoists may claim otherwise, Mao would not have won the war without Soviet aid, particularly the Soviet handover of Manchuria.
>>2615010Chiang's reunification was interesting, he got jailed by Zhang Xueling
>>2614492>young people in the EZLN are losing interest in maintaining it and move to the city insteadBelieving PRI propaganda, sad!
>>2615105To be fair, Lenin only received 3 - 5% of the vote before a crisis
>>2615097From what I remember it was the zapatistas themselves that are concerned with that, I saw them talk about it in a documentary. But I might misremember and be repeating PRI propaganda without knowing, my apologies if that is the case
>>2614985This, we don't have a large Communist power backing our comrades in these conflicts. Cuba is under siege along with Venezuela, Nicaragua is hanging out, the DPRK is still somewhat isolated (changing), Laos is there, Vietnam and China have largely pivoted away from supporting Communists not in power.
>>2615152Will the DPRK start going global after Kim?
>>2615161Moreover, yes. The 90-00's are over and that dreadful storm was weathered by the DPRK, arguably better than any other socialist project, in the emerging multipolar world the DPRK will, and has already proves to, harness newly available international relations towards the goal of socialist construction.
>>2615172 (me)
S/moreover/moreso
>>2615172>DPRK will harness newly available international relations towards the goal of socialist construction.Can't wait to invest into the proletarian DPRK stock exchange
>>2615246What the fuck are you even on about?
>>2614138From what I understand of the NPA, yes they're basically militarily useless and their PPW has been going on over twice as long as Mao's, but they do have activity in the cities. They see it as keeping their fighting capacity alive and not abandoning the peasantry that's constantly fucked over by capital. I see it as a conveyor belt of competent, educated, young cadre to their graves. It's probably only a burden to defend a historically declining and non-protagonist class like the peasantry, and it's not necessary to keep active combat going in order to retain the ability to wage war. That can be re-started at any time, just like they started it in the first place. Sison also wanted to protect the mineral wealth of the ph, probably so it could have something to exploit for quick development in the case it ever goes socialist. This is ridiculous considering their losing position. They should support proletarianization and honestly work more with their US diaspora since it's the US drone striking them and providing the PNP and soldiers intelligence. This is one place where a cross-border struggle could make a huge difference. The Philippines is a semi-colony of the US with a relatively strong communist movement. They should focus on doing more than just having some english language magazines, but actually setting up organization here in the US. That would help them funnel funds and better agitate for an end to US military presence and political and economic meddling.
>>2615311>They should focus on doing more than just having some english language magazines, but actually setting up organization here in the US. That would help them funnel funds and better agitate for an end to US military presence and political and economic meddling.Philippines is too important to the US for agitation to work. If Philippine communists ever gained even a modicum of traction in the US they would be designated a terrorist organization, people arrested and funds cut off. They would have a better chance of growing by linking up with local Islamic groups while muscling into the drug and smuggling trade.
>>2615165Me and the boys
>>2615172When do you think the DPRK will be able to conquer South Korea? Or is that never going t happen?
>>2614138Lol the bourgeois forces always say the Naxals and the NPA are losing and going to disarm but it never happens. The Naxals did actually face a lot of struggle in 2025 but Operation Kagar would not be a thing if they were not threatening the fascist Indian state.
>>2615311Btw the CPP have a really strong global presence and do the thing you said about cross border stuff. They will work with a (tbh far too) broad range of orgs and have front groups in every English language country, for example AIF in UKKK and there's a similar one in Ireland. There is literally an Ang Bayan discord server. Your comment is based off of incorrect facts and you should acknowledge them and rectify your position. Also your position on peasantry is wrong but I can't be bothered to get into that.
>>2615175A big part of Maoism is the belief that peasants are the primary revolutionary subject.
>>2615511and the national bourgeoisie, but the peasantry doesnt even exist anymore so i guess that explains the trajectory of china
I think many leftists need to accept that the successful anti-colonial movement (the the Vietnamese, Koreans, Angolans, etc.) were essentially popular nationalist movements in red. The same was true for the Yugoslav partisans. The Magyar communists fought against Trianon. That was the most important thing for them, the masses have never fought for communism.
I think a lot of people forget or don't realize that the extant and past rural insurgencies didn't simply draw from the classical image of a petty landholding ""peasant"", their advanced sections drew from complete wagies and those who had to supplement what they farmed out of decaying communal or individual plots with wage labor.
>>2615134What mattered was the 3–5% they had, ex-Tsarist soldiers and officers gained during extreme turmoil, Gold from the Kaiser also helped in setting up the operation
>>2615689What did Lenin think about the Kaiser?
>>2615599>dood they are literally landowners but they supplement their earnings with a side gig so theyre le proletarianlols the shit i have to read
>>2615693I don’t have any exact quotes, but he probably didn’t think too highly of the German Empire. That said, the decision to send him to Russia with the gold wasn’t from the Kaiser, it came from Hindenburg and Ludendorff. They sent Lenin to cause civil unrest and destabilize Russia, hoping to take it out of the war. They obviously never expected the Soviet state to take off like it did. Ironically, these same two men would also help unintentionally pave the way for the rise of the Nazi Party in Germany, something they also likely never saw coming either.
>>2615741They undid their own empire.
>>2615330>When do you think the DPRK will be able to conquer South Korea? Or is that never going t happen?Probably won't happen unless forced from the other side. DPRK have a decent position and such a development would cause real problems for them.
>>2615511Nonsense. READ REPORT ON THE PEASANT UPRISING IN HUNAN!!!!!
>>2615795Really? Why'd it suck?
>>2615745The point is that the October Revolution, which many on the left (myself included at one point) once saw as an inevitable and almost sacred event, came about largely because of a handful of men. There was no real master plan behind it either. Of course, there were larger material factors that made revolution in Russia more likely than in other regions, and Russia would have still imploded and would never become a liberal democracy, but without Lenin and German aid, the Whites would have gained the upper hand. Either Kornilov or someone like him would have taken power, leading to probably a proto-fascist Military dictatorship.
>>2616129What does that mean?
>>2616159Overall, I see history as shaped both by broader material forces and by the roles that "great men "find themselves in. If history had been nudged just a few different ways, Hitler could easily have ended up a Bavarian socialist, and Stalin a Georgian nationalist. I’d also argue that many prominent anti-Communists from Eastern Europe, the 'I didn’t kill men, I killed Communists' types, were never anti-Communist for ideological reasons. They were simply unlucky enough to live in areas looted by unsupervised Red Army brigades. If a few events had been different, those same men would have been the strongest supporters of the system, probably never understanding communism beyond the idea of 'strong state that gets things done."
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