>>2712915NEH means have to go to work tomorrow. not having to go to work due to teotwawki means shtf time bug out grab sks go innawood. if not innawood, not happen.
still posting? = NEH
>>2712942exactly
>>2713735Because as much as the Shia clergy has cultural capital on the Iranians, so too did any notion of a shah.
>>2713631you cant conclusively say that either of those fell because of america. each one hard particular extenuating circumstances that were unrelated
>>2713737Good post. I refuse to indulge performative targets this time. The only way Iran restores deterrence and stops this happening every six months is either building the bomb or showing that American/Israeli leaders will be targeted.
>>2713731>mirror every attack of your opponent with the same type of attackis not a required or even good strategy. it forces you to follow the tactics of your opponent rather than other ones that may be more to your advantage. the us/israel use those tactics because they have no stamina and need to create a big blow and propaganda spectacle they hope will get them a quick knockout. they are tactics that suit them and their situation.
Iran seems to be following a plan to target strategic military infrastructure, punish us/israel and its puppets, and an initial stage of this is draining their AD (exploiting their lack of stamina). The point of all this is to reshape the regional security situation so that the US and its puppets will never want to hit Iran again because they know there will be a price they don't want.
Allowing the US to dictate Iran's tactics by what it chooses for itself (you have to do the same thing the US does when it does it like a copy cat or you're a cuck!) is not necessarily a good strategy or suited to Iran's strengths.
>>2713652>they frankly don't carei dont think this is true. theyre pretty quiet because they are still measuring the impact.
>>2713605>then we're likely in for a long war.unless israel chimps out or calls daddy. i think theyre a bit like a roided out psycho or rabid dog, and their own egoic self perception means they think they have ultimate escalation dominance, which means they will just become increasingly more psycho, and theres only one prescription for a dog with rabies
>>2713750Which two are you referring to? As for Syria, they fucked them the fuck up. I bought into the meme of "can't Mossad the Assad!" and "Who must go?" But honestly in retrospect it seems like there was a strong element of just letting the status quo remain because they were very happy with it. It's like those fighters that beat the guy woozy but refuse to KO him, I remember Anderson Silva got accused of that a bit.
>>2713752Iran can also forcefully remove American bases from the Middle East. I think China gave Iran blessing for that
>>2713757im just explaining the internet history of NEH, its inherently 4chan coded, posting is not endorsement
>>2713744If you live in America NEH is undefeated. I'm pretty sure this counts as a happening from the Iranian end.
>>2713737bullshit. this is iran enacting their stated policy to the letter: every time they get bombed they're going to do this again. if isn'treal even mentions bombing them, they're going to bomb israel. it's really clear, decisive, and legal by UN resolution.
>>2713735*I'd also add that TBH the Islamic Revolution is still fairly recent in time–frankly, the Pahlavists are on the edge of being irrelevant past this generaiton. This is probably their last real chance.
Usually after 45+ years, pretenders become increasingly irrelevant.
>>2713582>China should try pushing toward sanctions at the very least. I understand the risk but the reward is to great.contradicts their no interference in internal affairs which is a core pillar. unless you mean sanctions passed by the UN, in which case there is not "risk" because they wont happen
>>2713764do they not go to work tomorrow? leftypol 'happening' is just when there so many posts threads turn into twitch chat
>>2713768China is already sanctioning USA. They call it "export controls"
US Embassy in Bahrain just got hit. Seems like Bahrain is out of AD, continuous successful hits in the last few hours
>>2713772Kuwait, not Bahrain
>>2713754We'd better hope this is only an AD-draining stage, because nothing I've seen so far is going to deter the US/Israel doing this again.
>>2713772None of the small monarchies can do anything. Iraq can just march in Kuweit and restore lawful order
>>2713765There's way too many backseat gamers on leftypol, ngl.
>>2713766The Pahlavis are never going to have any legitimacy again. Its already too late. Nobody cares about the Shah's son. The Iranian opposition itself is a total clownshow. Even if America magically puts him back, it would be a catastrophic internal crisis because nobody except diaspora larpers want him back. The most realistic chance America ever has is putting a softy Reformist in charge and let Iran get culturally domed like they attempted with the Iran Deal.
America just wants to pummel Iran to be weak. They dont give a shit about bringing a new person, that's a boogeyman to make retards in Iran chimp out, get killed, and cause more internal conflict.
>>2713737In all these wars Iran is getting weakened much faster than it can recover. This is a salami slicing tactic by Israel and America. The regime will collapse eventually. If I was in Iran's shoes I would go out guns blazing Saddam style.
>>2713779Something was shot down, though. Something with a turbojet
Are you guys new to the copium game or do you guys just never grow out of it? So much fucking copium about Israel over the years. What is the point? They're not a joke.
>Israel, can't/won't do that!
Then they do it. Lather rinse repeat.
A lot of you, if you were war-planners your entire plan would be like:
>We charge at the enemy!
>THEN he slips and falls on a banana peel!
>but then he falls backwards on a pile of thumbtacks!
>And then when he's writing in pain on the ground we finish him off!
>>2713781brother nobody cares about israel anymore. they're totally spent and basically irrelevant.
>>2713737ok they blow their whole load, now what leverage is left?
>>2713555>I keep telling you guys, they knew it was going to be a protracted war and they are prepared for it. The Iranians pre-programmed their strategic missile launchers to keep firing and whatever command and control structure they have for them is still operating. That is very important. It could be decentralized, which would be a little weird, because launching strategic weapons (ballistic missiles) is different from artillery, like those missiles will land in different countries so that usually requires higher-level command authorization, but whatever they did appears to be working.
>>2713558>That's what the SMO was supposed to be to lmao, except the imperialists have not achieved any of their goals in Iran. It's obvious by this point that their primary goal was to cause the collapse of the Islamic Republic with a short, rapid military intervention. Failing that, they were hoping that after taking a beating, the Iranians would be both incapable of resisting and willing to negotiate. None of that has happened. I wouldn't count your chickens yet. I've heard a theory that Trump wanted this to be over by Monday before the stock market crashes (well that plan is busted, if true), but there's another theory that the plan is to go on for weeks and modeled on Milosevic in Serbia in 1999 in which the U.S. bombed them for 78 days i.e.
>>2713617The idea is to create some change in the government or the behavior of the government rather than regime change. Those are two different things. Or something like that … I'm just reporting what I'm hearing about what the Trump administration might be thinking. It's very difficult to do regime change with Iran because the IRGC has such control over the economy and that's not going to disappear because you bomb them. One potential model they're also looking at is Russia in the 90s where the KGB turned into the FSB but still retained a lot of power (and put one of their guys into the presidency). Like we're supposed to be Marxists here so we need to factor in who controls the means of production. But the war planners in the U.S. also factor that into their planning (in a way).
>>2713663>Looks like Pahlavi supporters might get sidelined.The U.S. does not really like them. Israel shills the Persian nationalists hard, but they're really not the CIA's boys like some people think. It's not the case. A big problem is that the monarchists are associated with Persian fascist oppression of Kurds and (Iranian) Azerbaijanis. It's just a non-starter for Reza Pahlavi to take over. Their guests on VOA Persian are not allowed to mention his name or they don't get invited back. I think the U.S. agenda wants Iranian minorities to play an important role in whatever future government exists there if they're successful at bringing down the REGIME (as they say).
>>2713787>I think the U.S. agenda wants Iranian minorities to play an important role in whatever future government exists there if they're successful at bringing down the REGIME (as they say).Bingo, dismantle the Islamic Republic but keep the Republic.
Ironically the IRI is hilariously minority focused, a shit load of the state is operated by Azeris, not Persians.
>>2713789>Ironically the IRI is hilariously minority focused, a shit load of the state is operated by Azeris, not Persians.That's also true.
Here's a couple of other things. Don't be too sad about Iranian missiles failing to get through interceptors, because that's kind of the POINT of Iran firing those missiles. They want to burn up those interceptors (they're very expensive, take a long time to replace), which will over time force the United States to pull back.
Also, the U.S. and Israel have destroyed missile launchers. But there are missile stockpiles and production facilities which have not been destroyed. They're in mountains. So I don't think Iran is just going to run out of them in a week.
>>2713765>bullshit. this is iran enacting their stated policy to the letter: every time they get bombed they're going to do this again. if isn'treal even mentions bombing them, they're going to bomb israel. it's really clear, decisive, and legal by UN resolution.You know, one elephant in the room with "multipolarism" as a theory of what happens when US hegemony wanes. Is that the resulting liberalism is an unstable equilibrium. Because everyone is fighting to preserve or expand their share of globalized capitalism, needing the crisis, but not too much of it.
And I think this may be one of those times where the better outcomes are so close within reach, but discarded, because there is profit to be made instead.
At some point, those "international law" talking points will sound as hollow coming from regional liberals as they do now in the mouth of UNSC permanent members.
>>2713794do you know if the iranians have silos
>>2713789>a shit load of the state is operated by Azeris,do you have any proof of this besides khamenei being half azeri
>>2713806I mean thats already like 50%
>>2713682The gracefags should be banned honestly.
>>2713490I have yet to hear a serious counter to "china could just blockade Taiwan and there's little anyone could do about it". TSMC being barred from exporting alone would cripple the place. Taiwan is so close that mainland coastal-launched anti-ship missiles are a threat to anyone trying to get in. THey have absolutely massive drone swarms that could be used to target interceptor missile launchers. The moment they want to they can do what the US does to Cuba only far more complete.
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