/leftypol/ - Leftist Politically Incorrect

India

An actual communist revolution wouldn’t be in one country, it would be worldwide

>>2828278
So when marx and engels and their associates were doing revolutionary activity in england and germany, did they also expect the revolution to break out in madagascar?

>>2828333
I don’t give a fuck about Marx and Engels, I care about reality

>>2828363
??????

>>2828376
You heard me and read me correctly, don’t act confused

>>2828333
This might come as a shock to you but during the lifetime of Marx and Engels 3/4 of humanity was still living in actual colonies.

>>2828363
>I care about reality
and yet
>>2828278
>An actual communist revolution wouldn’t be in one country, it would be worldwide
fuckin idealists man

>>2828428
Capitalism is a world system you dumb idiot

>>2828436
capitalism was a world system in ww1 dumb idiot

>>2828451
And having a revolution in one country didn’t work

>>2828278
>>2828333
>>2828363
>>2828382
>>2828428
>>2828436
>>2828451
>>2828453
Okay that's enough, yes the revolution would eventually expand to include the entire world but it would start in a country. Maybe you believe the revolution is already here and you're a fucking Dengist or something. In that case, what is the next country the revolution will spread to? I just want some perspectives on that.

>>2828468
Probably somewhere in Southeast Asia or a poorer Euro country as they run out of oil thanks to the Iran debacle, maybe Greece or the Philippines or something

>>2828382
Why didn't they just wait until capitalism was global?
You can't do socialist revolution in a colony, you'll just create capitalism, after all

India, Capitalism is leading to a famine with massive fertilzier shortages and climate changes caused heat wave.

>>2828509
Naxals are dying and the electoral communists got destroyed, the RSS controls the media and the culture, you’re high

>>2828470
I find it very difficult to believe that European countries have much revolutionary potential. I think it would be a 3rd world country.

Next major world crisis has a lot of potential of sparking ability for communist revolution in the weakest in each chain.

Today we have two competing imperialist blocs. Let's represent them visually with the OECD vs SCO members.

For the communists to be able to exert leverage with the proletariat to strike the bourgeois dictatorship down the country has to have the expected key ingredients working in their favor, such as
· developed urban environment (today including electrified and digitized), developed industrial base, expected capitalist class composition with numeric advantage of the working people
· not have multi-generational trauma associated with mid-to-late USSR's social-imperialism and collapse (e. europe, c. asia) being leveraged by bourgeois anti-communist propaganda

>OECD high likelihood candidates:
Ireland, Portugal, Spain, Greece
Chile, Colombia
Costa Rica excluded due to US hegemony reorienting focus on securing its immediate geostrategic vicinity, of which central america will be a key region. Depending on what will happen in the near years in regards to Venezuela and Colombia, the same logic will apply to, the broader Caribbean, thus also including Colombia. The further away from the US in the Americas you get the less US military bases as well, which then creates a chain connecting Chile-Argentina-Uruguay.
>SCO high likelihood candidates:
India, Pakistan

>>2828278
>An actual communist revolution wouldn’t be in one country, it would be worldwide
how do u dat

>>2828269
China. It's the most advanced capitalist power and the most proles.

>>2828269
i swear to christ you are the dumbest and most smug poster on this board and I'm getting sick of it. it will be a mostly international effort, or it will not happen and all, and the latter is most likely. there is never going to *be* another communist revolution as far as you're concerned because you are an ignorant larper with an incredibly superficial understanding of the subject matter, just the window dressing

>>2828269
if there was a communist revolution in your neighborhood you would be inside posting about race science on chans run by literal federal agents

I don't know, but Singapore is a place where I don't see a revolution happening. Not while the country remains so dependent on imported water from the Malaysians.

>>2828604
>if there was a communist revolution in your neighborhood
socialism in one hood

>>2828601
I never once claimed the revolution wouldn't be an international effort
>>2828604
What?

Colombia i think

Maybe the Maoists in the Phillipines will finally win?

>>2828269
It's hard to tell given how far from socialism we are right now, but if I were to point to a place it would be either the EU or the US because socialists in most other countries would not be able to even begin to commit to a socialist project without support from formidable allies whom are not to be found anywhere else

With how much the political parties are tearing themselves apart right now I’m gonna say the USA.

>>2828269
It can only be a SEA or LATAM country imo. LATAM has strong labour movements, although hegemonized by succdem, and is currently in the process of precarization. A good ML movement could build power and do it in 15/20 years if they get half of a Bolshevik competence. But sadly communist parties in LATAM except for Cuba and Nicaragua were always retarded.

>>2831025 (me)
Another factors that makes me have hope for LATAM:
Masses have experienced a succdem era in the 2000s and 2010s and see it fail, so there is a general climate of looking for alternatives

USA image and projecting is at its lowest. Even if it turns back to western hemisphere there still could be a chance if it gets stuck in Iran or Taiwan or somewhere else, trying to keep a castle from falling with their hands so to say.

Rare Earth's copper oil shale oil and lithium are present in the region and it makes for a possible communist state with export hegemony to have very strong bargaining power in the global market, but this is already post victory.

>>2828269
History is over.

>>2831025
This is why I believe Brazil will have a socialist revolution quite soon and lead to a domino effect across LATAM

>>2831023
>>2831024
Not a chance in hell there's a revolution in the 1st world any time soon. We'd likely see the 3rd world break free first and then see the revolution spread to the 1st world as a result of no treats.
>>2831038
I envy your hope

>>2831024
The US revolution will look more socdem-like and similar to the French Revolution. In short, it will be similar to a Bolivarian Revolution with more chaos than a Russian Revolution.

>>2831048
>I envy your hope
I understand why the hope and that it seems far fetched but Brazil has potential to happen there in the next few years sporadically after decades of a build up towards it

>>2828278
based

>>2828468
if it isn't in america, it will be annihilated regardless

weak link in the chain of imperialism + crisis of legitimacy of bourgeois order caused by crisis of production + a communist organization prepared to go towards dual power, civil war = possible communist revolution

is there anywhere on earth that has these conditions?

>>2832559
the "weakest link" will just produce the weakest organization that will then either collapse in the face of outside aggression or fall into bonapartism in the face of internal instability
so no

>>2832563
>the "weakest link" will just produce the weakest organization that will then either collapse in the face of outside aggression
russia? china?? korea?????? vietnam?????????

>>2832565
all collapsed into bonapartism and the ussr died

>>2828269
Gulf states (bar the Saudis), 90% of the population are slaves, the only ressources these states have is oil, and they're eventually going to run out of it, their society isn't prone to persevere over time. They have no ideology, no promise, nothing they can rally the people under. They'll collapse eventually, Iran might have just started it.

>>2828509
>>2828512
Honestly, I have mixed feelings regarding the state of Communism in India.
On the one hand, as >>2828512 points out, the Naxals are fucked. The insurgency is a very minor threat now, most of the cadres have surrendered as the State Governments offered lucrative rehabilitation programmes. Many even denounced the movement, calling for the other's to give up and fight for reform through peaceful and "democratic" means (this is a sentiment echoed by most Communist parties in India). Going on a brief tangent here, but most Communist parties in India (especially the big, ML ones), are mostly focused on electoralism and "achieving the needs of the working class through democratic and parliamentary methods". Communist parties in India are genuinely just focused on winning elections, not getting shit done, even the non-ML ones like RSP in Keralam (who are currently allied with the INC by the way). And then there are laws like this (https://prsindia.org/files/bills_acts/acts_states/maharashtra/2025/Act47of2025MH.pdf) in some States which effectively bar people from organising under the banner of Communism.

Now, on the positive side, there is of course hope. The youth of the country are realising that the current system is corrupt, that whether you vote for INC or BJP or whatever, shit will still get worse. There is currently a protest going on at the Jantar Mantar demanding the resignation of the Education Minister on grounds of the highly competitive exam papers always getting leaked and generally, being unfair. The protest is under the banner of the Cockroach Janta Party (satirical name, pretty funny), and even though I don't think it has enough momentum to achieve it's goals, it will definitely radicalise a new generation of youth, and maybe we can see some actually interesting things happening after that.

P.S. I don't know why I am effortposting, this will probably get ignored by most people anyway :P

>>2828278
Retarded anarkiddie/ultroid nonsense

>>2832579
its better to be an ultra than a stalinist retard

j'suis marxist

>>2832543
my feeling about the future of the US is that the trump admin 2.0 has no intention of ever letting go and will manufacture any reason to cheat and crack down, but for various reasons and stark weaknesses they will sooner or later collapse.

after that the AOC succdems will finally get their chance and will completely fail because they are both stupid and ignorant, they will fight off any alternatives to them getting to do their little routine but at best they save capitalism like the rats they are but most likely they are hopelessly outmaneuvered every step of the way and humiliated worse than any democrat ever was. either way they will be overthrown by the right once they recover, probably in 4 years or less, and we get actual hitler 2.0 for who knows how long until the JDPON meme is made real after they give humanity pretty much no choice but to come over here and put our ruling class down and a lot of us with them.

Ultras, anarkiddies and trotkysts have views more aligned with the CIA than MLs and Stalinists. Never trust that vermin, they're psy-op ideologies meant to destroy any resistance movement from within.
I know I'll get banned for saying this because the moderation is already infiltrated, but it's the truth. If this place truly cared then ultras, anarkiddies and and trotkysts would be considered reactionary right wingers no different from /pol/tards and treated with much more vigilance.

>>2828509
Indians would rather put that anger towards their fellow muslim workers instead of the capitalist class. A reactionary shithole that would rather genocide its people than do anything good

>>2832578
>but most Communist parties in India (especially the big, ML ones), are mostly focused on electoralism and "achieving the needs of the working class through democratic and parliamentary methods".
Proof that you don't need imperialism to have a labour aristocracy imo.

>>2828269
Lenin:
>The fundamental law of revolution confirmed by all revolutions, and particularly by all three Russian revolutions of the twentieth century, is as follows: It is not sufficient for the revolution that the exploited and oppressed masses understand the impossibility of living in the old way and demand changes; for the revolution it is necessary that the exploiters should not be able to live and rule as of old. Only when the masses do not want the old regime, and when the rulers are unable to govern as of old, then only can the revolution succeed.

so which countries are closest to fulfilling this criteria? In my view it is the western aligned nations that don't imperialize enough value to cover their budgets and whose bourgeoisie are most wedded to the idea of western style Liberalism and can't conceive of ever changing course. This excludes India as their society will have no problem adopting hindu nationalist fascism when the time is right

Ireland, Egypt, Colombia, Serbia, Mexico, South Africa

>>2832559
going by the metric of 'weakest link' in imperialism, the answer would probably be south korea or italy

>>2832578
> Cockroach Janta Party
I was wondering the context of that meme, Your effortpost has at least helped this monolingual dumdum

>>2832812
>>2832833
Albania or Poland?
https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/nato-spending-by-country

>>2831025
>>2831032
Won't be latam. The US won't allow it and latam countries are already experiencing a libertarian trend

>>2832578
> The protest is under the banner of the Cockroach Janta Party (satirical name, pretty funny), and even though I don't think it has enough momentum to achieve it's goals, it will definitely radicalise a new generation of youth, and maybe we can see some actually interesting things happening after that.
I was driving somewhere and forgot my phone and was forced to listen to public radio in the USA and they were randomly talking about this cockroach party from India in positive terms which made me wonder if it was a US psy op

>>2832995
I find that unlikely, Modi is about as pro-US as you can get in an Indian leader.

>>2832976
Albania yes, Poland perhaps not, their citizenry is hostile to communism and communist parties are illegal

>>2833039
Remember when Albania's Right-Wing government suckered 2/3rds of the population into pyramid schemes in the late 90's and Social Democrats coup'd the government over it?

>>2833088
i was still liquid in the late 90s

>>2828587
>>2831017
>>2832812
Why Colombia is so high for revolution to you guys? Feels like the anti-communism is rife due to conflicts with Socialist militias like FARC for decades and anti-Venezuela propaganda is everywhere

>Imperial Core
Obviously the richest countries in the world, with the strongest ideological and repressive state apparatuses, and the ability to use treats to divert attention and quell unrest. They also have no serious worker's movements to speak of, and what they do have are decaying remnants of 20th century yellow unions which remain riddled with labour aristocracy and neutered by social democracy, but without even getting the benefits of it anymore. The proletariat here is mostly dispersed in service sectors and lacks many of the living and social conditions of industrial labour that Marx regarded as important for promoting class consciousness. Things definitely don't look great here. The only thing favouring revolution here is the fact that these are stagnant societies in which everybody has basically given up on the notion that anything will get better. If workers here did manage to get a serious movement going, these are the countries with the least amount of upward potential, and thus the shortest runway to address intensifying contradictions. Resolving class conflict through rapid growth and redistribution of its fruits is simply no longer possible here. Additionally, the high standard of living makes the population more sensitive to its decline, and their dependence on crumbling Western hegemony and imperialism seems to make such a decline more and more likely.
>Semi-periphery
On paper these seem to fit the conditions Marx had in mind most closely, and imo they look a lot like Europe at the turn of the 20th century. They often have large industrial workforces, significant trade union movements, and often even relatively powerful communist parties, at least matching those of Western Europe in the immediate postwar period. They also have far more poverty, and weaker, less capable state institutions that would likely struggle more to contain class conflict. Additionally, many of them are still at least partially in a transition away from semi-feudalism, and these are precisely the sort of strains that historically have played a large role in successful socialist revolutions. Things definitely look better here, and I'd probably peg it for the most likely source of the next socialist revolution. However, something to consider is that many semi-peripheral states really are potential Great Powers being held back by their subordinate position in the world imperialist system. As this system shifts with Western decline, countries like India, Russia, Poland, and Brazil could plausibly emerge as imperialist economies in their own right. They have far more upward potential than the imperial core, meaning that they could offset class struggle through sufficient growth (and relatively equitable distribution of its benefits) the way the West did in the 50s and 60s. There is already some evidence of this process, with the beginnings of a labour aristocracy visible in some countries, manifesting as revisionist tendencies even among their communists.
>Periphery
I wouldn't rule this out, but since these countries are by definition not heavily urbanized or industrialized, we would be talking about a peasant revolution rather than a proletarian one. Peasants have proven capable of carrying out socialist revolutions, but typically only when this is tied up with a national liberation component. The problem here is that there is no rule saying that such movements need to be led by communists, and often they are not. Especially since the collapse of the USSR and the reputation of communism as a leading anti-colonial force. At present such movements appear to be gravitating far more towards non-leftist expressions. What's encouraging about these countries though is the weakness of their institutions and their utter inability to fully manage the class contradictions in their societies. Many of them remain in a perpetual state of low-intensity conflict and are heavily dependent on outside support to prevent a collapse of the government. If a communist movement in such a country did manage to take a leading role in a national liberation struggle, their chances would probably be better than in most places.

>>2828269
Germany

>>2832995
I don't think it's being propped up by the US, though the INC and people live Sonam Wangchuk (climate activist and pro-Ladakh statehood activist, general thorn in the side for BJP) are heavily involved in the moment. The movement itself is mostly targeted at the Education Ministry and the Chief Justice (who called the unemployed youth attacking the Ministry "cockroaches", hence the name). I don't see how this serves US interests. Or maybe I am being short sighted and should TRVST JDPON Don's PLQN or whatever.

>>2833033
IMO all current Indian politicians are Pro-US, because they don't like China. Trump's stupidity has made them somewhat backtrack on this, but they would 100% align with US than with China if need be.

>>2833277
>Germany
>Fucking Germany
Out of all the countries in Europe sans butthurt belt you pick the country with the least amount of revolutionary potential. France has an actual chance compared to Deutschland

No latam country, people here are retarded and beyond and are actually becoming rabid evangelicals and libertarians like crazy. I imagine latam going through a full blown fascist era before communist revolution becomes a possibility.

>>2833277
un-democratic parties are illegal there. Not even Japan is that insane

Americans will never do anything except 9000% Nazism.

>Latin America
Bolivia and Peru
>Europe
Serbia, Greece and France
>Africa
Kenya,Egypt and South Africa
>Asia
Myanmar,Pakistan and Kazakhstan

>>2835267
>Bolivia and Peru but not Colombia, Chile, Arg. or Uru.
>Greece and France but not Portugal, Spain, Italy
Eggsplain thou raison

>>2835294
Bolivia is in the middle of a revolution right now

>>2835322
Ah, you're just new to Latin America.
Polite sage.

RIGHT ANSWERS ONLY BELOW

Iran

>>2828278
Yeah but it has to spark somewhere

>>2833296
The German proletariat had the most revolutionary potential in the cold war when the two imperialist camps were united against their class

>>2835294
>Bolivia and Peru but not Colombia, Chile, Arg. or Uru
The Peruvian government is extremely volatile with presidents coming and going. Conditions are getting ripe for a revolution especially with legacy militias and the like. I feel what is happening in Bolivia will domino into Peru and light something up eventually.
All the countries you listed have potential but not as much as Peru and Bolivia in comparison. For example, I am skeptical of Colombia due to anti-Bolivarianist sentiment and the US having such a massive presense in the country. But I would love to here reasons for the countries you listed
>Portugal, Spain, Italy compared to Greece and France
I would also include those countries as well don't disagree on that but I see both France or Greece or especially Serbia sparking

Hot Take: Argentina and Russia