>>2839206>And if it were to happen, what would be the leading factions, would there be a revolutionary party disciplined enough to overthrow the capitalist class during the internal conflict, and also, would it just result in an even more extreme fascist takeover?I think the chances of a major rupture are pretty good. We're already seeing that the conditions which are precipitating the need for drastic and necessary change are there. For instance, there's the worsening drought which is causing the Colorado and even the Mississippi river to run dry. There are multiple systemic threats to the economy, including exploding household debt, rising prices, and flatlining wages. That's to say nothing of AI and the massive damage that will result once that pops. The war with Iran and the consequences it has for the supply chain would itself be a huge shock to the system, but it's likely just going to be what sets all the other dominoes in motion. It's possible that they might be already, since the combination of intense heat, extended drought, and disruptions to fertilizer production and distribution have already impacted agricultural production.
And we've already seen what the US governments response will be. Any one of the challenges it's facing would require serious changes to the entire American society. Not only has it shown that it is unwilling to carry them out in the smallest degree, but the bourgeoisie have actively shaped the government and the society to be unable to implement them even if the will was there. So we're probably going to see what happened with Covid and hurricane Helene happen again, and again, and again. Regular people will be impacted the most, and they'll be left to die, because saving them isn't profitable even where possible.
At some point there is going to be a large enough disaster that the government is just going to write off everyone affected by it. There are going to be large swathes of America where the federal government exists only as an enforcement arm to protect the rights of the bourgeoisie. Common people will be reduced to peons whose labor power is extracted through incarceration as necessary, and because of multiple ongoing wars anyone whose behavior is too destructive or disruptive will be executed outright via weaponized drones.
There would be the Federal Government and the major bourgeois interests which have become embroiled in it and dependent on it. These will be centered on bourgeois urban havens and industrial centers. They will be islands in seas of decay connected by crumbling legacy infrastructure, essential highways, and possibly seaborne shipping.
Outside of federal jurisdiction there will be corporate/oligarch "freedom cities." They'll make the company towns of the 19th and 20th century look like the Petrograd Soviet. If left to their own devices they'll either agglomerate into something that eventually supplants the US government or fracture between each other based on supernational forces.
The countryside will consist of the marginal farmland not owned by capital and the former urban and suburban areas devastated by natural disaster, economic neglect, or other factors which make them "unprofitable." Nominally it will be under federal jurisdiction but absent some pressing need, the federal government will try to preserve its diminished resources by just letting it lie fallow, creating pressure to move to Freedom Cities or other special economic zones.
This is where there will be a lot of churn. Right now, the main organizational forces in rural America are reactionary in nature, such as legacy racist organizations like the Klan or the various protestant churches. There's also a growing presence from narcotics smugglers and other criminal elements, and reactionary groups fleeing cities for one reason or another, "preppers," etc. That's not to mention the remnany petite bourgeoisie that manage to hold onto property productive enough to give them local influence but not to see them integrated into the new haute bourgeois superstructure.
Many of these would probably serve as proxy enforcement arms for the US gov, just like the Klan still does.
In the immediate aftermath of a vacation of the federal government, reactionary forces would probably enjoy a pretty significant early boost due to preexisting support/non-interference from the federal government and the appeal of traditional relations in the confusion. By which I mean rural communities are already being held together by small churches and government support, and in the absence of government support that will just leave churches to serve as a social safety net.
Leftist communities of all stripes will be slower in formation but inevitably do so as deprivation increases and subsequent disasters continue. It will occur out of necessity, both to stave off worsening conditions as well as resulting from draconian policies within what remains of the US, FCs, SEZs, etc. As the technological infrastructure necessary to observe the marginal areas deteriorates and the bourgeoisie become increasingly preoccupied with the wars they're unable to win, the fissures which will allow for the development of communist activities of all kinds will grow wider and wider.