"The American stock market is booming, thanks to artificial intelligence. Tech giants are borrowing billions to acquire AI talent, purchase chips and hardware, and construct data centers. And market watchers are starting to get worried. They see financiers bulldozing giant piles of money to private AI start-ups with no realistic path to profitability, tech companies reliant on other tech companies for revenue growth, and non-tech businesses without a lot to show for their AI investments. The value of AI-linked firms has climbed $27 trillion in the past three years—an astonishing amount, equivalent to 36 percent of the value of the entire U.S. stock market today. Although future earnings could justify those valuations, as Dominic Wilson and Vickie Chang of Goldman Sachs argued in a note to clients, the profit expectations require Panglossian optimism.
No less an authority than Sam Altman is arguing that we are in an AI bubble. The International Monetary Fund is citing it as a significant risk to financial stability and warning about what might happen when it bursts: diminished investment, tighter credit, reduced consumption, disrupted trade flows.
That’s pretty much what happens when any bubble pops, as a Dutch tulip obsessive could have told you in 1637 or a bitcoin evangelist could have told you in 2011, 2013, 2014, 2018, or 2022. Yet the AI bubble is no ordinary bubble. Hyper-rich corporations are stoking it, rather than kitchen-table investors. They’re blowing it up when credit is fairly expensive, not dirt cheap. That might make the bubble less fragile and longer lasting than those of the past. But it won’t make it any less painful when it pops.
The dot-com bubble of the late 1990s and the housing bubble of the late aughts were remarkably broad-based compared with the AI bubble today. Uncle Ted got a hulking desktop computer, opened a newfangled E-Trade account, and started day-trading shares in Apple and Pets.com. The share of American households owning equities climbed 13 percentage points from 1995 to 2001, during which time more than 2,752 firms went public (far more than the 730 operating businesses that have IPOed in the past six years). A half decade later, Aunt Linda bought a condo with nothing down, flipped it, and mortgaged three new investment properties in the Phoenix suburbs, sight unseen. The homeownership rate rose 5 percentage points as the housing bubble inflated; 40 percent of mortgages issued at its height went to investment or vacation properties.
In both cases, regular people were staking their savings on what seemed like a winning bet: the internet changing everything, housing prices never going down. In both cases, cheap credit fueled the irrational exuberance. Low interest rates let venture capitalists fund nonsense web businesses and let banks provide junk loans to borrowers with terrible credit. In both cases, rising interest rates popped the bubble.
Today, Uncle Ted and Aunt Linda aren’t really getting in on the AI frenzy. The share of Americans who own stocks has held steady. Household debt has grown, but it has fallen relative to disposable income and GDP. Everybody seems to know someone who was personally burned by the dot-com collapse and the housing crisis. How many people know someone who’s staking it all on OpenAI and Anthropic today? (The companies aren’t public, after all.) Indeed, how many people know someone whose livelihood has been directly affected by the AI frenzy at all?
The insularity of the AI bubble isn’t the only thing that makes it unusual, and we should probably think about it as two overlapping bubbles instead of just one. AI is driving tremendous spending on capital expenditures—physical infrastructure, software development. And it is driving a tremendous run-up in company valuations."
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/07/ai-economy-stock-market/688004/#:~:text=The%20American%20stock,in%20company%20valuations.