>>2924158The Emerging Tiers
Based on current trajectories of wealth concentration, AI capability development, and labor
market disruption, the model proposed here anticipates the following class structure by the mid-2030s,
absent significant intervention:
Tier 1: Infrastructure Owners (approximately 1 percent). The individuals and entities who own
compute infrastructure, energy supply, foundational AI models, and critical data assets. Amodei notes
that Elon Musk’s current fortune (approximately $700 billion) already exceeds John D. Rockefeller’s
peak wealth as a share of GDP, and this is before the primary economic impact of AI Amodei (2026a).
He projects that AI companies could generate approximately $3 trillion in revenue per year, leading to
personal fortunes “well into the trillions” Amodei (2026a). Research confirms that AI adoption has
already contributed to increasing concentration of wealth among top income earners, while the bottom
50 percent has seen only marginal gains Aluko et al. (2026).
Tier 2: The Cognitive Bourgeoisie (approximately 5 percent). AI safety researchers, senior
engineers who direct AI systems, compliance professionals navigating competing regulatory regimes,
healthcare providers, educators, creative directors, and others whose work requires human judgment or
trust that AI cannot yet replicate. This class is economically comfortable but fundamentally precarious:
the AI capability frontier is constantly advancing into their domain. In economic terms, they are digital sharecroppers, productive and well-compensated but entirely dependent on Tier 1 for the tools and
platforms on which their work depends.
Tier 3: The Subsidized Majority (approximately 94 percent). Those whose labor has been
rendered economically unnecessary by AI. Under the best scenario, this class receives some form of
universal basic income, public services, and abundant cheap goods. Under the worst scenario, this
class subsists on whatever minimal provisions trickle down from an economy that no longer requires
their participation. In either case, their defining characteristic is political irrelevance: they have neither
the labor leverage nor the consumption leverage to compel the attention or accommodation of Tiers 1
and 2.