>>2351691nothing..
nothing ever changes
>>2351689nothing is happening
its just missiles
go to sleep king
— 🇮🇷/🇮🇱 What was the reason Iran agreed to the ceasefire, and did Israel 'win'? I will explain it to you straight.
In the opening strike, due to a combination of widespread internal sabotage and extensive Israeli airstrikes, most of Iran's long/medium range air defenses were wiped out.
Since day 2 or 3 of the war, the Israelis have operated with almost complete freedom over Iran's skies. First in the West, then gradually expanding to the center. We saw even UAVs operating quite freely at some point, a tell tale sign that something is truly wrong. This matter of air superiority is key to understanding the missile situation.
While Iran still has tens of thousands of ballistic missiles and hundreds of launchers, that's not the issue at all. The issue is, due to total Israeli air superiority, no large-scale missile attack could be staged without receiving an immediate preemptive strike from the enemy. The moment Iran takes the launchers out of the underground base, Israel detects this, and strikes with impunity.
This forced Iran to carry out missile operations with smaller hit-and-run tactics, using older long range missiles from bases in the Center and the East, and unfortunately Iran's capability to respond in large volumes gradually declined.
In these circumstances, realistically, a war cannot be maintained. Since the first few days, real deterrence was already gone, despite some periodic strikes on 'less than relevant' targets (with the notable exception of Weizmann institute and Unit 8200 Logistics HQ). Launching 10-20 missiles daily would be a waste if it is not an instrument to a wider military objective.
Militarily speaking, Israel is the clear winner, and there is no sugarcoating this. However, politically, Israel lost. The Israelis did not achieve most of their main objectives. The Islamic Republic still stands, Iran's nuclear program still has a future, and martyred commanders have been replaced.
Israel's main achievement in this war is the near complete dismantlement of Iranian AD sites, and as a result, the successful suppression of large-scale missile fire from Iran. This forces Iran into a corner, as it was no longer able to keep up with the escalation.
The problem now is the following: Israel will use this ceasefire to re-arm itself. It will prepare for another war, more aggression, and to gradually achieve the goal they really wanted in the first place; regime change in Iran. It is also likely that they will try to implement the 'Lebanon model' in Iran — and strike targets inside Iran during the ceasefire, with relative impunity and no response.
How will Iran deal with this issue? Iran also has to rebuild its capabilities. Once again, missiles and launchers are not the issue. Iran will repair the collapsed tunnel entrances of missile bases in the West, and almost all missile bases (with the exception of Tabriz) will become operational again. But then what? The air defense network is gone, the same situation will instantly repeat itself.
Iran somehow has to find a way to guarantee that this ceasefire is not one-sided, that it rebuilds its capabilities, and that it finds a solution that guarantees its own survival and prevents any new Israeli aggression. In my opinion, the only way this can be done is rushing towards a nuclear bomb, nothing more and nothing less.
@Middle_East_Spectator
>>2351733thesis: complete and total ceasefire
antithesis: another barrage is on its way
synthesis: trump tweets
>>2351764Here's how it went
>retarded ceasefire agreement lets israel bomb iran for 12 hours while iran ceases immediately>iran instead unilaterally set an earlier deadline for israel after stopping firing>israel breaks the generous 30-60min deadline Israel would obviously spend the entirety of the 12 hours bombing Iran, which is why they gave their own deadline
>>2351774goddamn you sizzlecels had me thinking that the ceasefire was broken and that we were escalating, but clearly Iran was just saving face with throwing last minute missiles at Israel before the ceasefire came into effect.
NEH Chads I kneel
>>2351773Iran needs to seriously level up its political acumen because history has shown that Israel will ramp up its attacks just before a ceasefire has a deadline. In other words military operations are still in effect and in fact in an accelerated form because these operations have to be completed otherwise all operations must cease after the treaty is signed or a ceasefire finally agreed to and set. A lot of retards here don’t understand how ceasefires work. Basically an announcement is made, all operations are still ongoing, a date is set for a meeting to agree to terms which will have already been agreed to before the meeting, the ceasefire is made official on that meeting date during which time military operations will have been ongoing.
In fact even for situations of unconditional surrender, fighting will often continue depending on the lag between the orders at the top to reach the bottom. These massive operations with a crap ton of logistics to keep track of takes time to get following new orders. When a ceasefire has been set, there is an accelerated time line for military operations because they have to complete those operations before the ceasefire is set. Iran didn’t study this basic ass political reality and now they are lagging behind Israel. And it shows, Iran has proxies attacking Iraq bases because they cannot use their own assets so they have to use auxiliaries or proxies to get shit done that they definitely could not do with their current resources and the time constraints of the ceasefire deadline.
>>2351725>>2351794GOD BLESS AMERICA AND GOD BLESS ISRAEL MAGA/MIGA
DONAKD J. TRUMP
>>2351779 (me)
>Araghchi says there’s no agreement on a ceasefire with Israel as of now
<Al Jazeeraokay i have no clue what the fuck is happening. why is western media, iranian media, and the iranian government all saying different things
>>2351799 (me)
ignore me fucking up the >
>>2351810like one Israeli boomer got "critically injured" per Al Jizz
here's hoping he croaks kek
>>2351799because initially Araghchi said that had zionist not attacked Iran starting at some point (4AM, Tehran) they wouldn't retaliate anymore.
But either was trolling, either zionists weren't not attacking, or whatever.
it's fizzling.
>>2351792It’s definitely indicative of something. It’s like ahistorical in that they literally don’t believe in history. Things don’t happen through a process of change, in this view. Things happen only theory singular ruptures in which everything is replaced in one week or even just one day, but also, the new thing is the same as the old thing.
It’s an odd meme to become to dominant especially in these particular years.
>>2351812UGH
FUCKING USELESS
REDUCE THEIR SEAT OF POWER TO RUBBLE OR SHUT UP FOREVER
>>2351816if your basic mode of life isn't changed then it isn't a happening
the world has had plenty of happenings, hell COVID was the latest happening. But some Pissraeli boomer getting merked by a missile isn't necesssarily a happening
>>2351820ceasefire isn't in effect yet dumbass
>>2351824Well I have bad news for you. Look at Ukraine, where villages which are the front line battlefields, being bombed every day, still are populated by villagers who are going about their daily chores and doing their routine jobs.
Nothing will ever “happen.” Change will come through a long process.
>>2351822I use the two terms interchangeably to piss off sizzlebros and fizzlebros. don't mind me.
meanwhile, zio tears. enjoy.
>>2351828SHES SAYING БОЖЕ ЩО УХУХУЪХХЪХЪХХЪ (GOD WHY UUHHGHGUHGGH)
THIS IS A RUSSIAN ONE
>>2351826https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114734934153569653it starts at 12 ET retard. everything before then is fair game.
>>2351827Yeah it's because Ukraine grinded into one big nothingburger
>>2351828kek bitchass uyghas
>>2351829hello fellow fed
>>2351832>i was only pretending to be retarded! >>2351834This war was never about Gaza though. Israel's goals in the war were:
>Destroy Iran's nuclear capabilities>Regime change in Iran>Stop Iran's funding of Hezbollah/HouthisAnd they failed at all 3 of them.
Iran wasn't the aggressor, their goal was simply to prevent Israel from achieving its goals. From Iran's pov ending the war and letting Hezbollah/Houthis continue harassing Israel is the winning play long-term. They don't need a direct confrontation to achieve victory.
>>2351725I literally was listening to Michael lol
All I wanna say is that they don't really care about usLol
>>2351863>it's supposed to be 7:30 PM Tehran timeAM.
I think the Xit
>>2351850 (me) refers to the time orange potato announced. his 12 midnight. thus all of these attacks:
>>2351828>>2351820>>2351807>>2351765are Iran's last slap, having the last word.
>>2351867How about you take this seriously
3
=======>~~~~
this anon
>>2351891 needs to cool off, he's sizzlin!
>>2351891Also
>Current year AD 2015+10>Lolz I'm just joking lul I'm so ironic bro, umad? kek lmao image believing in anything xD #lecringeShould be a bannable offense tbqfh
>>2351882>Implying it ends hereI'll be surprised if they're not at it again within 6 months Zionists need to stock up on interceptors again, and over in Iran they need new air defense systems asap.
The main zionists gains are killing a bunch of senior commanders, taking out Natanz, Isfahan and much of the Iranian air defense.
But they failed entirely at "regime change". Fordow will probably be restored in full, and any cooperation with the IAEA has ceased. The enriched uranium hasn't been located either supposedly. Nor other secret enrichment sites hinted at a few weeks ago.
People also keep forgetting: Fordow was build almost 20 years ago. They probably have build numerous (smaller) sites in the meantime, ready to be activated.
Nor would it surprise me if they authorize a chemical weapons program over in Tehran after all this.
>>2351926Why
is the capitol
STILL STANDING
>>2351933>>2351935the sixth wave was launched before 12:30 so it hasn't been broken
if another wave is launched and actually targets significant infrastructure then I will kneel. Until then, fizzlechads are on top
>>2351936Was thinking of this the other day. The old guard is almost entirely gone. Leaving only impatient hardliners.
Iran having WMDs in the near-future is basically a foregone conclusion now. They're going full DPRK and never letting in another inspector ever again.
>>2351943 (me)
Hardliner targets: Dimona, desalination plants, Hormuz, Bibi, etc.
Moderate/lib/infiltrator/appeaser targets: Empty buildings and empty barracks mostly.
>>2351936>The decision-makers in place before the war were debating whether to ditch their anti-Israel instance.Holy CUCKery if true.
uyghas in the upper echelons of your Islamic Republic see thousands of Muslims get massacred in Gaza but are only against Israel when they get attacked directly.
>>2351976>identifying with political actors as a surrogate for having your own identityAre you projecting? You're squealing like a hog being slow bled over what you think others
should be doing.
>>2352011Iran could literally end the petrodollar, the US economy and Israel tomorrow if they press the
big red button that bombs the gulf comprador's hidrocarbon facilities. It's not even hard compared to reaching Israel. It is MAD, but they are going to get Iraq'd anyway. The only thing that's in question is how the elite will fare.
At this point I just think that the Iranian elite has come to envy their counterparts in Egypt and Syria and wish they could be much closer frenemies with the west.
>>2352039And Israel cannot exist under constant threat like this either. Even if Iran wouldn't escalate, maintaining the same level of pressure, where just dozens of missiles are getting through where previously hundreds were needed would keep Israel in a permanent state of paralysis. With the NATO ships forced to remain there and be a drain, and the interncetions costing orders of magnitude more than the attacks.
So it's not that Iran isn't escalating, it¡'s that they are retreating and actively undoing their own advantage, letting Israel replenish so future Iranian attacks will not be effective. And Israel/NATO can advance into other things, rather than being stuck shooting down missiles and paying billions upon billions to keep Israel's paralyzed economy afloat.
>>2352033As a consequence of this both Israel and the USA are less stable politically. Israel had been suffering an exodus even before they're genocide on Gaza but the genocide and then the war they started with Iran severely accelerated it. BDS continues to score victories (pic related). Israel's arsenal has been partially consumed and it's defensive capabilities shown to be vulnerable.
I'm not a military nerd so I don't know how long it would take for the USA to replenish Israeli stockpiles so perhaps that point is trivial and might also be the case that given a long enough ceasefire the USA-Israel military complex will be able to patch the vulnerabilities of their defenses idk.
>>2352050 (me)
The way the PressTV propaganda talks about it is fucking shameful. Save for the retarded islamist rhetoric that flies out of their mouth with all the grace of birdshit, they frame this as a win. As if they were defending PAlestinians from genocide while literally collaborating with the USA in favor of the Zionists…
They talk bout bombing Israel like it's wishy washy BDS and we will just have to see the impact over the enxt couple of centuries of inaction.
>>2352047And it's all gay and blacked for some reason…
>>2352051>showed that the ayatollah's regime is weak.Soleimani, Hezbollah, Iraq, and Syria, already showed it but this proves it. Hitting Tel Aviv back was fine and all but fundamentally didn't do anything to change the situation.
If this cease fire happens it will be an Israeli and American win.
>>2352059>If this cease fire happens it will be an Israeli and American win.Not to water down the bombing of TelAviv but *everything* that has happened has been a victory for the USA(and therefore Israel).
The "resistance" is gutted.
The compradors are eager to fall in line again and sign whatever.
Syria is gone.
Iraq continues to be a non-entity.
Iran can be bombed at will. And any red lines on targets are trespassed with impunity.
Russia and China are telling Iran to sit the fuck down and not touch their oil prices.
And the Palestinians are going through the Israeli Final Solution both in Gaza AND the West Bank with total impunity.
B-b-but muh Israeli PR, diaspora,BDS, soft power, expensive means of extermination! Don't cut it. Israel and the USA are getting away with total victory for a bargain price compared to what it took the USA to assure themselves the loyalty of the EU burgeoisie, the Ukraine war.
>>2352055Eat shit Zionist shill
The pathetic regimes in Saudi Arabia, UE and other gulf states are very fragile and won't last long.
>>2352063You just need to accept that we live in a reactionary period and think accordingly. These are the consequences of the fall of the USSR.
>>2352067The 'left' celebrating homosexuality when one of the biggest capital concentrations in history is happening seems a bit suspicous don't you think?
>>2352074 (me)
The corollary being that Iran should get the bomb.
>>2352087Nasrallah did
He refused to a ceasefire to with Israel while Gaza was being genocided, until the bitter end
>>2352104Why do they have their phone number to begin with?
Iranian OPSEC strikes again or underground channels? call it
>>2352130Reality is everyone is still terrified of the US because it's a rabid dog. The issue is that I've said time and time again, is that the US and West only respects strength. If the US and West are probing your weaknesses, you need to hit back hard. This isn't only in Geopolitics, but also just in domestic standard Parliamentary politics. Look at what happened to figures like Corbyn or Bernie when they didn't hit back 100x harder to smears and bullshit, and go on the offensive.
Another big issue for me is that the left cannot just help tie itself to fucking pathological loser cucks. It makes us look completely retarded to the normal person when we keep supporting corrupt fucking warlord fuckheads because of some vague "anti imperialism" LARP they do, only for them to cuck out and show they are playing heel. Honestly, unless it's a "Communist Party" I find that the left should be very critical of showing any support whatsoever. Geopolitics should be viewed by as as a scientist looking at a Petri dish.
>>2351952>>2351957They did make it the fuck up.
Keep in mind that doomposters are all in favor of "hardliners" and we are all supposed to support "hardliners." As they've lied about for the last two weeks, Iran is going to be totally destroyed if the "hardliners" don't take control. Otherwise, everyone is doomed, the country is doomed, the state is going to collapse, unless the hardest, harderliner is in there. Very typical rhetoric from the most aggro milbrained loser. We don't notice how ridiculous these people are because America is full of exactly this kind of person.
>>2352187Screenshotting this for lols after a year or two all those things come to be.
And the NATO position on Palestine is whether to kill them all now or let them starve on the Sinai camps.
>>2352187this is why doomposting is inherently so safe. there's never accountability. if le bad thing doesn't happen everyone's in a good mood, moving on and not looking to hold people accountable. if le bad thing does happen people are salty and looking for someone to blame and take it out on.
the doomposter gets credit when he's right and gets forgotten when he's wrong. pretty good deal.
>>2352240>time to learn chinese boysShould have been doing that anyways
But it's not too late to start now
>>2352218People aren't considering it might have been Beijing pushing for a ceasefire. There may have been a lot of back and forth behind the scenes. As closing the strait would be very bad for the Chinese economy.
A Chinese (or Pakistani) threat of full material support may have caused Washington to back off from regime change. There's also the gulf monarchies who wouldn't want to be drawn into this either.
Far from being "cucked", I'm convinced a lot of parties drew a line in the sand, and stated that if the war were to escalate they'd openly involve themselves too. Thus risking outright world war.
I'm not convinced this is the end of it. Cooperation with the IAEA has ended. And they'd be fools over in Tehran not to rush WMDs now.
In turn, the Zionists, Washington and major EU powers are probably scheming towards a prolonged regime change op and another first strike, with the goal of taking out the entire leadership and provoking an uprising to topple the government before anyone can intervene. (See Syria)
>>2352237My flaw is artificial modesty, not confirmation bias. When I say "doomposters," I'm leaving out that I consider myself the only True Doomposter.
I have no confirmation bias with my own doomposting and have frequently offered to get into a namefag duel for that accountability you're complaining about. My record is spotless. Every cuck-out I've called since 2022, which is when I started calling cuck-outs, has been correct. I have astutely identified empty threats, garbage red lines, and acts of fecklessness.
I don't think you're ready for a final boss like me, tbh.
>>2352295The conspiracy theorist in me suspects something more malignant.
The Iranian parliament approved the Hormuz closure, which means the Ayatollah shut it down.
Israel and Trump mouthing off about the Ayatollah would be peak Trumpian "planning" for removing suspicion from the Ayatollah.
The lack of reciprocal decap strikes is also noteworthy, as is the refusal to hit critical energy sites.
>>2352315This website isn't influential enough.
You should start betting on your takes and do a vlog on it.
I'd watch for sure, TankAnon! No lie.
>>2352326Lol
Also zionists crying
>Iranians are testing Trump!>One rockets (which was intercepted) warrants killing hundreds of people! Raze Tehran! Kill Khamenei! >>2352266You are the hero we need, but not the one we deserve.
It may be the case that we are no longer in the ever happens era. But that is only because we have entered the dark age of cuckholdry.
>>2352318Mr. Segal is just pretending to be stupid, right? He doesn't want to say what he knows, which is that Trump's Truth Social posts are merely for trying to deceive the Iranians and that behind the scenes he's all-go for whatever Israel wants to do. Right?
I think I may be finally getting sick of politics.
>>2352342the democrats knew they were losing the election before biden even dropped out. it's nearly impossible to come back from negative ratings he already had going on. you have to pretend you're in it though or else no one shows up and you get wiped out of congress too. The harris campaign was an attempt to close the gap and prevent and prevent a congress bloodbath, not so much to win the presidency.
pundits have to play along, or have to be the kind of people that will play along with what the rulers are saying and do the horserace.
>>2352364>70 faces, one million maskslol
I love this propensity to come up with exaggerations on the fly. Not saying this is an arab trait but they do have a certain proneness for drama.
>>2352396Evasion noted :-o
>lead to either a ground invasion of iran or a unillateral decision from the US to step offYou seem to be covering multiple bases there.
>>2352401>you evaded my made up goalpost :ono, i confronted it head on and told you that whether he dies or not is irrelevant
>You seem to be covering multiple bases thereyou're confusing rock solid analysis for cowardice
fries -> bag, i want your lunch earlier today
>>2352403>I can't see the Israelis stopping at this. Neither can I.
1. Dimona still operational.
2. Desalination plants still operational.
3. Strait of Hormuz still has maritime traffic.
4. Bibi still Bibi'ing.
5. Empty barracks.
>>2352403I'm sorry but Iran is way too fucking huge and populous for Israel to be able to do any of that shit. They can barely achieve that with Gaza, and they're right fucking there, fish in a barrel.
100 million people, with an actual military and economic ties to the rest of the world is not going to suffer the same fate, I'm sorry it's just not
>>2352405The relevance isn't the point.
It's a concrete, well-defined test of your astuteness without the slipperiness that the other shit allows (how many men constitutes a ground invasion, what constitutes stepping off, etc.).
Either he gets assassinated or he doesn't.
I say he gets assassinated.
>>2352421>betexactly, that's the word that was missing
you're not doing analysis, you're gambling on Great Men and their little disctraction show
>>2352427Yeah, that post for you, not Tankanon.
Let me know when you're confident enough.
>>2352407we don't know that. the whole country has been under such tight censorship that especially the strikes near sensitive areas are completely unknown.
reminder that so far israel says they've had 0 military deaths lmao
>>2352430Sandinista shares your side of the bet.
If he didn't, he'd just say he shares my side of the bet, and then I'd have nothing.
Game on!
>>2352434Vlog progress?
Polymarket seems like an ideal money-maker for you, who knows everything about everything. You can donate the money to the homeless.
>>2352446Your quote says the same thing his quote says. IRGC accepted the ceasefire and made some attacks before this ceasefire.
I don't think anyone believes the ceasefire is actually going to last, tho.
>>2352488I thought you were paraphrasing lmfao
When is the last time a sitting president said "fuck" live on air
>>2352490Yes, I was being hyperbolic. Of course there are good w*sterners, I never claimed otherwise
But shutting down arms factories for a limited time is not change on that scale.
Mr Trump, is she hotter than me, would you fuck me
Are you gay?
>>2352505Theater.
Green lights to Israel in private communication.
>>2352518Hodl hodl
The ceasfire hodls
>>2352518The canaries in the coal mine:
<1. Dimona still operational.<2. Desalination plants still operational.<3. Strait of Hormuz still has maritime traffic.<4. Bibi still Bibi'ing.If any of those change, that's when I'll believe shit has hit the fan and Iran is doing more than kayfabe for the Ummah.
>>2352511it's a heads I win, tails you lose scenario: if the us backs down it loses power and prestige, if stages an invasion it gets back into the same quagmire it just exited and ultimately loses west asia.
trump has a lot to gain from this war though: destroying the usa would make his third term a shoe in, and give him the green light to continue targeting his own population with ICE.
it's questionable who would win out of iran or israel.
>>2352522there's been a lot of violence on both sides.
israel stand back and stand by
>>2352530No Wider War!
The United States does not start fights!
America does not seek conflict!
I don't like to use military force!
Our nation enters this conflict reluctantly!
SYKE! >>2352508We’re past that point.
It’s psychopathology acted out on the world stage with imperialism as set dressing.
BREAKING: BREAD
>>2352589BREAKING: BREAD
>>2352589BREAKING: BREAD
>>2352589BREAKING: BREAD
>>2352589 >>2352464Machiavelli said there is nothing more important than
appearing religious.
Key word: appearing.
Not being. Appearing.
That's what these grifters do. They don't believe anything, but they make a show of looking like easily duped cultists.
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