The Ukros are posting more complete excerpts from Kellogg:
<If Putin was winning, he'd be in Kyiv. If he was winning, he'd be west of the Dnieper River. If he was winning, he'd be on Odesa.
<If he was winning, he would have changed the government. Russia is, in fact, losing this war. Now, they may make movements and say, well, they're advancing in the Donbas region and the Donetsk.
<But if you consider advancing moving by meters, not miles, well, then, okay, that's successful. But at the cost they're having, it's enormous. And I don't think people truly appreciate it
The question is, is this just more "winning too slowly" tripe that will age poorly, or is it narrative preparation because Putin is in fact going to stop with 2-4 oblasts and leave the Zelensky government in power? The former I can laugh off, the latter I cannot.
>Ukrainian Defense Minister Shmygal said that at least $120 billion would be needed to support the front, produce weapons and drones, and strengthen air defense in 2026.
>According to him, if Ukraine spends less than Russia, this leads to losses of territory and lives. Even if the conflict ends, the country still needs comparable amounts to keep the army in combat readiness.
GIVAS
>Ukraine does not yet have the funds to cover the $10 billion hole in the budget for next year, said the head of the tax committee, Getmantsev.
>"The National Bank gave a forecast with the need for external financing at $35 billion. For 2027 - $30 billion. The Cabinet of Ministers estimates the need for 2026 at $45 billion. Of this, according to the Finance Ministry, taking into account the transitional balances, $35 billion will be covered", - the deputy said.
GIVAS
>>2480921I thought the last one was Ukrainian home-grown.
There was some American-ish electronics company named Flex that got banged up, tho.
>>2480944The idea was originally floated a year or two ago when it didn't look like Putin had the balls to target foreign assets on Ukrainian territory. But as a result of Putin's ball transplant, that assessment has aged poorly, hence the lack of vigor in setting up this factory.
The new show is establishing such factories on NATO soil, as is being done in Denmark. This is more for PR than anything else, given that there's no meaningful difference between already existing factories on NATO soil and factories established that are dedicated to Ukraine.
>>2480973Honestly I think it's just the result of think tankists trying to come up with anyway they can "stealthily" insert NATO into Western Ukraine, whether that's
>They'll just be there as peacekeepers with Russia's embittered blessing for a willing coalition of B-list militaries >They'll just be there as logistics troops to free up Ukrainian soldiers for the front>They'll just be defence for a western munitions factory based in Ukraine>They'll just be ensuring food security of Africa by overseeing food exports from OdessaIn spirit, it's the final example of crossing red-lines, in how do we do something Russia told us not to for the lulz/narrative/morale/assail our insecurities, but in a way that shouldn't
really elicit a cataclysmic nuclear response that would ultimately harm Russia more than crossing the red line to the degree we will would?
>>2480747>The question is, is this just more "winning too slowly" tripe that will age poorly, or is it narrative preparation because Putin is in fact going to stop with 2-4 oblasts and leave the Zelensky government in power? The former I can laugh off, the latter I cannot.I don't know if that question has an answer. We'd have to ask Putin. What are Russia's victory conditions? How has Russia defined victory?
Ukraine would love to retake Donbass and Crimea, but nobody outside of the most schizo NAFO posters (who don't matter) believe that is going to happen, because Ukraine just doesn't have the men and weapons and willpower to pull that off unless there was some Deus Ex Machina intervention like Moscow getting hit by a freak asteroid. They can't do it. "Victory" is always relative to political aims or is defined politically. It's not a strictly military thing, and it's also contingent because the situation is always evolving. So what they've done is redefine their victory conditions as survival of the Ukrainian government and holding as much territory as possible.
>>2481025As I've mentioned previously, any anxiety that this conflict ends with Ukraine the victor and fresh as a daisy is almost certainly a result of the complete media blackout in the west about the effect this conflict has on Ukraine, all we're *allowed* know about the frequent nights of hundreds of drone strikes against Ukraine is the targets are all civilian and we're *allowed* to see the results only when they imply the target was indeed civilian and we're assured that Russia is unsuccessful at even that because there's always minimal reported civilian casualties that prove 99% (or 110% some days) of Russia's drones are failing to hit their civilian targets, attention is completely directed away from even entertaining the idea that the targets might not be civilian after all and that's why casualties are low and there aren't 1000s of photos of craters caused by downed and ineffectual Russian drones.. because there aren't any.
Kellogg and the Ukrainian military is just directing attention towards the seemingly immovable front as indicative of Russia's suffering, but then the Ukrainians have the considerably more aggressive military in this conflict with its military goals being expressly territorial based (i.e only 1991 borders counts as victory and nothing less, to now considering any amount of territory to be worth meatgrinding for) compared to Russia's more open ended goals. Like Russia retracted from Kiev and regrouped in the East as soon as it was obvious Ukraine wanted to do this the hard way, while Ukraine is institutionally incapable of cutting their losses with
villages. Attention directed that way, not the way Kellogg wants, begs the question of who is likely losing more retain this "stalemate"?
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