>>2546964Most of these people are not going to Europe. Do you see where those black spots are located? They are directly near the Sahara desert, which is a very Islamic part of Africa. Either they will move south to Sub Saharan countries with sizeable Muslim majority/population, or they will move north to Mena
>>2546954its over, isnt it
>>2546966Mean is also in the unliveable zones
>>2547223what possibly made you think this was the thread for this? Please return to your containment and stay there.
>>2547223the funniest thing is that he really nailed how all the moderators here dress and look like. I could practically tag them frame by frame
>>2533022Read Lenin retard
>>2547248it do be like that
>>2547227That is perfect for this thread, actually. People on here freak out just like that over China.
>>2546146This is similar to what Ukraine did with Motor Sich. That move was called stupid and "Latin American" by most people at the time. I did not think that the Netherlands will stoop to this level so quickly. It makes one think: what the hell will be going on in Europe by 2050? It's very difficult to see anything positive happening there right now.
>>2546578and do China's "rust belt" towns look anywhere close to what is on display in New Delhi? For the record I hate the mockery of Indians and wish the best for them. I want Hindutva fascists to eat lead though.
>>2546146jdpon don strikes again
it is nonetheless a tragedy that the us holds this much power and that under a competent administration it could probably isolate china quite easily, considering how eager the vassals seem to be
>>2547223scarily accurate
Why haven't y'all moved to China yet?
>>2547554Healthcare is free in my country
>>2547554Learning Chinese is very difficult
>>2547223its all the /USApol/ regulars
>>2547554unless you marry a chinese girl its unlikely china will ever grant you permanent citizenship
>>2547554i dont have the skills.
>>2547223>>2547248so which one is Moffin?
>>2547737isnt it obvious?
By the way, has anyone tried spreading the conspiracy theory that after the US reshores semiconductors, it'll provoke a Taiwan war to destroy Taiwanese fabs and hog the high end of production?
Also, the "realistic" China collapse scenario and what will probably happen is that China will enter an economic plateau of 1-3% growth around 2035-2040, maybe 2045. Why? Demographic collapse.
But it's NOT, first, a kill shot because the Chinese will become ultra-natalist around that time, using a combination of subsidies, social support, and social pressure to get a 2.3-2.5 TFR up. It'll probably succeed, but will be extremely expensive.
Second, it's a plateau, not a crash. China will still be growing economically, just at a much slower pace. Previously, without a US collapse, China probably would have seen 60% of US GDP PPP per capita around 2050. Now, it'd probably be stuck in the 45-50% range for an extended period.
Third, by the time the plateau hits, China would probably have already overtaken the US.
>>2547788The plateau will be delayed because China will enter a golden age when western countries enter a civil war.
>>2547732Ok so what I'm hearing is Tigers and Flies worked.
I hope this line of 'Xi is the secret sauce' is just nationalist nonsense and the party is capable of running a country without Le Great Man cult shit.
>>2547554I managed to fall into a sweet six-figure bullshit job in the West and porky hasn't found out yet. I don't actually have transferable skills that the PRC requires, in fact they'd be more likely to pay me to stay here.
>>2547798Not with a greyed population it won't.
The three way game is between China, India, and the West. The West is extremely sickly, and China isn't strong enough to keep India down forever.
Demographic policy will work; it'll likely be nasty in two ways between human rights (of course China can never do anything right by Western accounts) and the exorbitant expense, but it'll take 3-5 decades before China's population recovers.
The deal is, though, China will be growing too slowly to keep the Indians out of the way. China will have to deal with either a strong or half-baked India, and the best case outcome is condominium instead of conflict.
>>2547554it is my duty to make the burger reich better (or, failing that, get rid of it), not make china worse
>>2547815India is irelevant
>>2548039yeah it's only a nuclear power with 1.4 billion people and the third largest economy on earth
>>2547554I want a revolution in my own country
>>2547223you really captured the gist of those people reasoning by gotchas
>>2548041>Nuclear powerYeah like pakistan and dprk
>1.4 billion peopleThat dont do anything of note
>3rd largest economy in the worldFinancial schemes and low level manufacturing
>>2547815>China isn't strong enough to keep India down foreverIndia is keeping India down. And if they remain a neoliberal capitalist shithole they will do it forever.
>Demographic Doesn't matter. Stop listening to Zeihan. China can easily thrive even with half of current population. Besides they're in better spot than the rest.
>India>IndiaShut up, please.
>>2548041>nuclear power Who cares? They don't even have a nuclear triad.
>with 1.4 billion people Who gives a flying fuck? USA was an industrial superpower with 200 million people.
>third largest economy on earthThey count cow dung into the GDP. To quote LKY: "Please don't even bring up India in the same sentence as China."
>>2547815>China isn't strong enough to keep India down forever.that's not really relevant but india has a long, long ways to go before it catches up to china. remember, china's gdp is 3x larger than the total gdp of africa and india combined. so even though the GDP growth rate of India (7%) was higher than China (5 percent) last year, the overall growth rate of china is still higher because 5 percent of a 19 trillion gdp is larger than 7 percent of 3 trillion gdp.
Real value added to the GDP, 2024
India: $0.22 trillion
China: $0.93 trillion
even if China stays stagnant at 0%, India will need to grow at 7% for 24 years to catch up. but this is forgetting that china is india's top trade partner… India imported $18 billion just in electronic components afrom China last year
>>2547815>populationchina already has a bulge in the alpha pipeline that is a bigger generation than zoomers. and by 2050 the number of retirees per 100 will still be less than what japan has in the current year. china graduates about 9x as many new engineers last year for every retiring engineer
and if you look at china's degree of urbanization, it was 29% in 2000 and 66% in 2023. comparatively in the US it's 82% and in japan it's 91%, so china's urban population still has a ways to go. urban workers are also 4 times more productive than rural workers to the economy.
>>2551329china could have run into some problems like japan in the 1990s however Japan started growing old when AI/highly sophisticated automation wasn't a thing.
the most brvtal trvthnvke is that everything aligned perfectly for China. Its demographic dividend (large young population) swept up the manufacturing on the planet in the 90s-2000s. it's now beginning to reap the intellectual dividend from millenials and zoomers who are much more educated than their parents, who have better access to nutrition and healthcare, who are now driving the innovation for BYD, DJI, Huawei, Deepseek, Unitree, etc, companies guided in industrial policy and strategic long term planning by the CPC.
the more advance industrialization and intellectual dividend of today will facilitate their fourth industrial revolution of automation as their blue collar force is retiring over the next decades. the 2030s and 2040s is when they will begin to reap the benefit of the AI/automation dividend. goldman sachs predicts up that to 50% of jobs could be fully automated by 2045, driven by generative AI and robotics.
the ML state structure also gives China a unique position to transition peacefully and strategically towards the realization of a mature socialism (2049) and toward the material foundation necessary for realizing communism. common prosperity will be achieved!
meanwhile, mass unemployment in the USA will likely be far more destabilizing, contested, and even violent as the bourgeoise like peter thiel, elon musk, mark zuckerberg, jeff bezo fortify their compounds, militarize the police, and desperately cling on to maintain the decaying neoliberal order by sicking their robot dogs on us, in the midst of intensifying culture wars
>>2551339Marx in "Fragment on Machines"
>"As soon as labour in the direct form has ceased to be the great well-spring of wealth, labour time ceases and must cease to be its measure, and hence exchange value must cease to be the measure of use value."Capitalism cannot resolve or survive this. When human labor is no longer the main source of wealth, then labor-time can no longer serve as the measure of value. Currently, human labor is still the main source of wealth, but as this shift to intelligent automated machines becoming the main productive forces (Xi's "New Quality Productive Forces" where less and less human labor is needed, this will transform the relations of production.
Marx in "Contribution to the Critique of Political Economy"
>"No social order ever perishes before all the productive forces for which there is room in it have developed; and new, higher relations of production never appear before the material conditions of their existence have matured in the womb of the old society itself. " >>2551349it's why the US, as a post industrialized advance capitalist state, is caught in zugzwang against China.
Marx in Communist Manifesto
>"The bourgeoisie cannot exist without constantly revolutionizing the instruments of production, and thereby the relations of production, and with them the whole relations of society.">"The bourgeois mode of production is the last antagonistic form of the social process of production but the productive forces developing within bourgeois society create also the material conditions for a solution of this antagonism."as US/Wallsteret invests trillions more into AI and automation, it devalues labor and erodes market legitmacy.
if it slows AI and automation, it falls behind China and loses global competitiveness.
but you can't stop a tidal wave. we're seeing a qualitatively leap in productive forces that is different from the old productive forces. it's not merely just efficient tools of the 1st to 3rd industrial revolution that enhanced human labor. it's an entire new way of producing value because it replaces human labor. this disrupts the circuit of capital:
M — C — P — C — M
(Money — Commodity — Production — Commodity — Money)
if labor is no longer central to production, then profit becomes harder to extract, and capitalism’s internal engine begins to sputter. AI automation invalidates the foundations of capitalism and late stage capitalist states. the lack of need for wage labor destroys the foundation of surplus value extraction. the lack of meaningful scarcity undermine markets, prices, and profit motive. lack of employment creates social unrest and galvanizes social revolutions to transform the relations of production and super structure. china already created a revolutionary marxist leninist super structure in the 1950s. they had their revolution. they just needed the productive forces to catch up to the superstructure so then it can synthesize onto a higher relations of production.
>>2547554Don't move to China, it's not like you can help, there's an excess of skilled labor anyways.
>>2547774If it provokes such a war for its own gain then I doubt it would fight in it, or at least do more than a few symbolic strikes.
>>2547815China won't be dealing with India, Pakistan and Bangladesh will be. They have far too much trouble with them to seriously provoke China.
>>2548041Pakistan is also a nuclear power. I get what you're saying about how they have potential to rise like China did, but it's not happening under Modi or any other presumably Hindutva leader who succeeds him in the foreseeable future.
>>2532938then why did Mao purge Deng?
Unique IPs: 31