Cont. from:
>>2754159>>2754569To speak further on the natural rate of interest, we may look at comments made in the 17th century. First is the writings of William Potter, who in his "Humble Proposals" (1651) suggests an increase in the circulation of trade by low-interest currency; presenting a demand-side economics by which he asks to "advance trade, employ the poor, diminish interest, improve public revenues; and prevent the cruelty of creditors, and the injustice of debtors." So then, a greater supply of money corresponds to a lesser rate of interest, but in this case, established by law, not by nature. Next is Josiah Child and his "Brief Observations…" (1668) in which he takes the same position, of seeking to set the rate of interest by law rather than by custom, as he writes directly:
<To illustrate this, let us impartially search our Books, and enquire what the State and condition of this Kingdom was, as to Trade and Riches, before any Law concerning Interest of Money was made. The first whereof that I can find, was Ann 1545, and we shall be Informed that the Trade of England then was Inconsiderable, and the Merchants very mean and few: And that afterwards, viz, Anno. 1635 with ten Years after Interest was brought down to eight per cent there was more Merchants to be found upon the Exchange worth each One thousand Pounds and upwards, then were in the former dayes, viz. before the year 1600 to be found worth One hundred Pounds each.Thus, Child states very directly that under conditions of the free market, trade moves slower than when it is stimulated into action (since credit is more cautious and self-interested), which he gives by empirical example. For context, the rate of interest was legally adjusted from 10 percent to 8 percent in 1623, and from 8 percent to 6 percent in 1660. Child's desire is for the rate to be lowered to 3 percent, since he sees this as a cause of prosperity by an increase in money for trade. In his "Short Addition" (1670) to the work, he adds that Holland's rate of interest is given by laws, not markets, since they have followed England (this is later repeated by Locke in 1691, who still contends that a natural, or market rate of interest exists alongside its legal rate).
Following from this is the supply-side argument, which puts emphasis on a natual rate. First is William Petty (1690) in "Political Arithmetic", Chapter 6:
<But the natural fall of Interest, is the effect of the increase of Money […] Moreover if rented Lands, and Houses, have increased; and if Trade hath increased also, it is certain that money which payeth those Rents, and driveth on Trade, must have increased also.To provide a basic theory of this is to say that where there is more money, there is more competition between borrowers, and so the rate of interest reaches its natural or competitive rate, at the rate of available spending, which as Petty adds, is determined by real productivity, measured by trade. We can see the same conclusions made by Locke, in his "Considerations…" (1691):
<Interest […] is low in Holland: but it is so, not as an effect of law, or the politic contrivance of the government, to promote trade: but as the consequence of great plenty of ready money, when their interest first fell.So then, Locke equally sees the supply of money as the cause of the rate of interest, but with the supply of money being caused by real production, in trade, which is a contrary view to Child's demand-side economics.
Moving into the 18th century, we can read from George Berkley (1735) in the "Querist", Part II, Q.12:
<Whether a national bank would not at once secure our properties, put an end to usury, facilitate commerce, supply the want of coin, and produce ready payments in all parts of the kingdom?This again links the rate of interest (e.g. usury) to the supply of money, where if there is a greater supply, the rate of interest will be lower. Continuing into Joseph Massie and his "Natural Rate of Interest" (1750), we see that he qualifies a "natural rate", not simply by supply, but by demand (pp. 20-21), seeing how an increase in the supply of money at one time by excessive demand can raise the rate of interest. He says therefore that fluctuations in the rate of interest are determined by rate of demand for money, but at a natural rate, supply meets demand. Thus, the natural rate the supply of money in equilibrium with demand. Following from Locke's argument as to interest being a measure of trade capacity, Massie disputes this (pp. 43-44) by comparing historical prices to a proportionate rate of interest, showing that if prices, money supply and rate of interest were all proportional, then the rate of interest ought to be regressively exponential, but this is not the case. Massie then makes his conclusion (pg. 48), that borrowing is for the ends of profit, and so interest must share in the profits of borrowing. Thus, it is the rate of profit which sets the natural rate of interest. This rate of profit he relates to competition amongst traders, of which Holland has most, then England, and so on. He also adds (pg. 54) that profit may be in line with industriousness, which he defines as a capacity to invest in the future (e.g. Menger, 1871). Capital investment then, he defines as prospectivity.
Repeating my earlier citations on interest, we may return to Smith in light of his predecessors, showing that the man did not fabulate theories out of thin air. To begin then, with The Wealth of Nations, Book 1, Chapter 9:
<According, therefore, as the usual market rate of interest varies in any country, we may be assured that the ordinary profits of stock must vary with it, must sink as it sinks, and rise as it rises. The progress of interest, therefore, may lead us to form some notion of the progress of profit […] The wages of labour have been continually increasing during the same period, and in the greater part of the different branches of trade and manufactures the profits of stock have been diminishinghttps://www.marxists.org/reference/archive/smith-adam/works/wealth-of-nations/book01/ch09.htmHere, Smith relates to Massie's point, that interest and profits are interlinked phenomena, which as time goes on and productivity increases, each are lowered. Smith similarly attributes rates of profit and wages (as inverse proportions) to competition. My added perspective of capital counting as a form of saving should also be considered, since this balances the national account between assets and liabilities. Proof enough is in how spending must be regulated by real production.
So then, what are we to conclude? We must first see that there is a contradiction between natural and legal rates of interest. Child does not deny a natural rate, but only sees that it is ineffectual to the ends of trade. Equally, Potter assumes that an increase in currency will increase productivity. Petty and Locke give primacy to the natural rate, which they see deriving from an increase in productivity, and thus the legal rate simply follows the natural rate. Massie agrees, but qualifies this by the rate of profit and competition as the primary cause. In Smith, we see that the rate of interest is basically identical to the rate of profit, which is determined not simply by competition, but the rate of capital investment, with larger capital stocks lowering interest. Here, capital acts as a form of prospectivity, which links to time-preferential theories by a sense of delayed gratification that adds value by futurity. Here, productivity is basically understood as a capacity to invest in capital, with spending being its counteractivity, through a national accounting of assets and liabilities. Keynes adapts this by identifying the threshold of capital investment (MEC) at the rate of interest, limited to liquidity-preference, or the demand for money. Thus, money (circulating capital) is balanced by fixed capital. This then completes the macroeconomic imago mundi.
For a Marxian addition, we can read from Capital Vol. 3:
<Since we have seen that the rate of profit is inversely proportional to the development of capitalist production, it follows that the higher or lower rate of interest in a country is in the same inverse proportion to the degree of industrial development, at least in so far as the difference in the rate of interest actually expresses the difference in the rates of profit […] In any event the average rate of profit is to be regarded as the ultimate determinant of the maximum limit of interest […] the general rate of profit appears as an empirical, given reality in the average rate of interesthttps://www.marxists.org/archive/marx/works/1894-c3/ch22.htmSo then, Marx is in agreement; that the rate of interest is regulated by the rate of profit, which is proportional to the investment of fixed capital (i.e. productivity). He does show concern however, that the rate of interest on credit has a pre-capitalist existence, and so cannot be explained merely on the basis of capitalist relations, even if it inhabits a capitalist character. Marx distinguishes between profit and usury more clearly in Chapter 36, where as a precapitalist form of surplus, it is a drain on production by promoting consumption:
<Usurer's capital employs the method of exploitation characteristic of capital yet without the latter's mode of production.https://www.marxists.org/archive/marx/works/1894-c3/ch36.htmIn the same chapter, Marx references Josiah Child, seeing the mid-17th century as pivotal in advancing from usurer's capital to industrial capital. Of course, this is initially performed by legal controls over interest, but later, the market is seen to decide its rate. Marx quotes Gilbart and his History of Banking in this regard:
<In our times, it is the rate of profit which regulates the rate of interest. In those times, it was the rate of interest which regulated the rate of profit.https://www.marxists.org/archive/marx/works/1894-c3/ch36.htmSo then, interest is relative to perspective, but in any case, it is symptomatic of exploitative relationships - the lender and the borrower; the creditor and debtor.