>>2833532>I think your model of public opinion is incompatible with the information you quote in your opening line: if Democrat opinion on trans issues stayed static while Republicans became negatively polarized, then the problem isn't that people saw undesirable transgender activists and were repulsed. I was talking about Gay rights here, there has recently been a decline in support for Gay Marriage among republicans and independants.
>If that was true, you'd see a drop with both parties, possibly even a greater drop with Dems (who'd be exposed to trans activists as part of their broader anti-right coalition.) compared to Republicans (for whom trans people are a total outgroup that are barely ever encountered for real.)This is the case for most trans rights related issue, both parties dropped in support, and while overall the democrats still support trans rights more then republicans, the decline was larger among democrats then republicans. This isn't the case with Gay Marriage.
>This model can even explain why opinion worsened in the UK to a much higher extent. Not really, the decline was happening before Labour turned on the trans people, they're following popular opinion. Beyond that, the rise of the Greens amongst the Youth hasn't improved support for trans rights.
>One man, Donald Trump, has far more influence on aggregate public opinion than the entirety of transgender activists throughout history. It's not just an american or british phenomenon. but even then, while Trump could explain it for US republicans, I don't think he can explain it for the democrats or the independants. I also don't think the Iran war is the best exemple, since you do have a large chunk of republicans opposed to it. Even then, Trump isn't personally radically transphobic, he hung out with drag queens and shit. He, as he often does, advocate for policies he sees as being popular, thats why during his campaigns in 2016-20 he didn't do much about trans people, even saying that trans people should use the bathrooms they feel like, he only started attacking trans people because they were unpopular, and a weak point of the Democrats.
>but any realistic analysis starting from that perspective must first confront the very marginal agency activists actually have and the multitude of motivations their opponents had. I don't disagree, but when there is a decline among different countries, in all categories, all political parties, all age ranges, there is clearly a larger issue then simply Trump's propaganda. Activists do have agency, it can be positive, but it can also be negative, activists can hurt their movement.
>Allow me a tortured metaphor: perhaps Your Party (dumb name) in England Your party entirely shot themselves in the foot, sure it's not solely their policies, but they were disorganised and incompetent, had they actually worked themselves out, they could have taken the place the Greens now hold.
> See Iran's nuclear deal for what happens when you're on the shit-list and decide to try the moderate conciliatory approach.I think there is plenty of difference between how a nation should react and how activists should.
Gay activists were attacked during Bush's term, but they didn't embrace weird radicalism and preferred to appear normal to the general population, gaining their sympathy.
Trans activists, who by definition want the support of the population as they want people to consider them as the gender they desire to be. Have acted in very moralistic ways and pushed for very unpopular demands, typically in sports or about children, instead of trying to garner sympathy for people. There is also a strong morality culture among trans activists, they won't accept to work with someone who agrees mostly with them but they think that nonbinary isn't real for exemple.
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