60-day suspension of the oil embargo
Real score or poison pear?
Iran's oil embargo has been suspended for 60 days until the end of August;
In exchange for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the inspection of Iran's nuclear sites by IAEA spies.
But why is this dangerous?
Don't get me wrong, I'm not talking about the strait and nuclear.
Earlier, J.D. Vance, Trump's deputy, announced that the suspension of sanctions is not considered a concession for Iran because;
Firstly, the sanctions have become ineffective, and secondly, during the suspension period, the US will have the opportunity to identify the financial network related to the sale of Iranian oil and implement more effective sanctions after 60 days.
In response, some supporters of the medical government have claimed that Vance's words have political uses in America and are not true. But past experience confirms Vance's claim.
First of all, the statement that sanctions have become ineffective is true. Because according to Kepler Institute statistics, despite the maximum pressure of 2 and applying more than 1,000 new sanctions against Iran, the current Trump administration has not been able to stop Iran's oil exports to China.
Last year, Iran's oil sales figure was about 1.6 million barrels per day. Although this figure is still a little far from reaching the sales record in the pre-sanctions period, this gap is also due to the sabotage of the government in increasing oil production and the failure of the plan to increase oil production by 400,000 barrels per day.
Otherwise, whatever oil Iran produces, the Chinese will buy it, and even in 2024, they have become the largest exporter of oil to China by sea.
Even the Chinese recently did not recognize the embargo on their 5 major refineries due to the purchase of Iranian oil and communicated the non-compliance of the American embargo to their related institutions.
Secondly, the suspension of sanctions has led to the identification of Iran's oil sales network, which has already been experienced in the case of the JCPOA.
In an interview with Mehr news agency on 15th of February 2018, Seyed Mohsen Qomsari, the director of international affairs of Naft Company in the Rouhani administration, mentioned the exposure of the exchange network of Iran during the implementation of the JCPOA and the suspension of sanctions.
As you can see in the graph, Iran's oil sales before the JCPOA was 1.4 million barrels per day, but with the withdrawal of the United States from the JCPOA, it will not return to the former 1.4 million barrels and will fall below 200,000 barrels.
Now why did this happen even before the spread of Corona? Because during the JCPOA period, using the transparency created by the suspension of sanctions, America was able to identify the ways to circumvent the sanctions by Iran and apply the sanctions more effectively.
As a result of this incident, the increase in Iran's oil sales during the JCPOA period was completely neutralized by the fall in sales in the period after that.
On the other hand, this 60-day suspension is such a short period of time that Iran can only sell oil to China, which it is already selling, and it does not have a chance to diversify the market, for example, to sell oil to Europe, because until Iran markets and the shipments arrive and the money returns, the 60 days are practically over and either the oil will not be exported or the money will be blocked.
As a result of experience, evidence and statistics show that Vance's words seem to be correct and the suspension of sanctions for a short period of time, considering the malicious intentions of America, will cost Iran more than its benefits.
https://nitter.poast.org/sehsanhosseini/status/2069079976226226592#m