>>2934937>This doesn't change anythingThe election is not the point, you're thinking short term.
Two phenomena to consider:
>politically formed adults switching side>the new generation developing political consciousness First one is very rare and doesn't happen under normal conditions. You need a deeply felt crisis, a culturally shocking event, a rapid societal change or something similarly traumatic for this to occur on a noticeable scale. Less politicized people, non-voters or centrists are the main subjects, but you occasionally get radicals as well, feeling betrayed by their own side and turning heel.
This works both left-to-right and right-to-left depending on the issue and voter in question. It's also incremental, meaning a single happening may be insufficient but two or three of those events in the span of X years can indeed break the camel's back.
One recent example I can name is covid. I work with boomers in a particularly lefty area full of '68 tankies and the amount of people that switched to right wing sovereigntist parties after the pandemic should be studied. Didn't even happen straight away, it took a couple of years to crystallize.
Some of them paradoxically still describe themselves as communists (I'm talking about the kind of people that has a Marx phone wallpaper or a hammer and sickle flag in the living room) while endorsing openly fascist-adjacent parties. Doesn't have to make logical sense really, people straight up voting against their interests and even ideology is nothing new or uncommon.
Can't say this specific example is widespread outside of my country or even my region though, not what I'm claiming.
Second phenomenon, on the other hand, is the standard. Teens usually default to left wing ideologies and causes, but specific combinations of factors can lead to exceptions as well. A left wing majority keeping power throughout their development (becoming the perceived "establishment") with no real socialist parties/movement to fill the radical spot, a ubiquitous mainstream endorsement and promotion of progressive messaging, a particularly egregious event monopolizing the news cycle, it can all lead to kids eventually going right wing.
My gf is a high school teacher and we had our own George Floyd protests-like moment at some point; she said kids went from supporting the riots to bringing Ben Shapiro talking points to the classroom in the span of weeks. I can guarantee you those kids are now part of the "youth voting far-right" block shown by our polls.
What I'm saying is,
the more this french fire rises and grows in scope and intensity, the more it's going to weight on both phenomena.
Riots won't turn half the people to a different party, but widespread damage and destruction of cultural and historical hotspots WILL cause a very small percentage of voters to flip, and the outcome of European elections is often determined by very small percentages adding or subtracting seats to/from a coalition. Maybe you won't even feel the effects in this specific election, but it unwise is to underestimate this dynamic.
Even worse, it's planting the seeds for young votes you'll only notice a few years from now.