2021 PERU ELECTIONS 3.0
Last thread hit bump limit.
This thread is for discussion of the 2021 Peruvian Election. Looks like it's keeps beign a close one, and either one could win this. The Peruvian Left has gone far, however, and has united under a pretty based candidate. Let's watch
Last thread:
>>227685
>>299257
>>15860The consensus was last time I checked that antiimperialist socdems are the only ones good.
Check this interview to see the left (main) part of Free Peru
>>15861Goddamit, I don't know if that will happen or if Rome will send ambassadors with peace offers first.
>>15868Dear compatriots, we have now the official data counted to the 42% of the popular will and we are a people of hope, and we must have faith in the people, because the people is the only one who saves the people.
In this context, I thank for your patience and I call for the common sense of the peruvian people, in this process, in the hours, in the days we will see. If it is respected, and we are sure it will be respected the people's will.
Something more of the 58% or 57% of the votes of the regins and the votes of the rural areas has not been counted.
Our votes are still not counted. The vote of the provinces. In this context dear brothers, we call for the most widespread tranquility, to unity.
We have passed different process, different democratic and political parties, and each time we participate we are more responsable, more mature.
Because of this, I ask you, tranquility and I call the peruvian people to be respectful of the people's popular will.
Long live the peruvian people!
Long live Peru!
Thanks
>>15870They did stage a coup in Bolivia, via USAID.
https://nacla.org/news/usaids-silent-invasion-boliviaSure, they didn't have official troops on the ground but they never do that in Latin America. I wouldn't be surprised when there is going to be some minor issue soon that is blown up so Castillo is declared an "authoritarian" and "human rights violator" quickly followed by economic sanctions and an onslaught against Castillo in the mainstream media. After a barrage of propaganda for 3 months, people who still support Castillo are labelled "tankies" and "NazBols".
>>15898He’s an indigenous person wanting to expropriate property, that alone means he’s hated by the middle class and elites.
Evangelical voters also hate themselves as being brown and want to always hand over power to wh*tes
>>15897The Venezuela trap is a real risk tho. They're stuck being a miserable capitalist country and socialism is the only choice, yet they're stuck in place. I wouldn't support a commie if that would be their plan tbh
>>15898Well Keiko represents something shit but familiar, I guess. Also, the risk of the Venezuela trap.
It would be a shame if Fuji wins but watching the enemy seethe is good. I've also listened to some rural / country Peruvian music for the first time searching around for videos. They use these old 80s synthesizers to make some amazing sounds.
>>15907Bolivia might be a better comparison, although Peru is also different. But I think one reason why Venezuela is targeted as hard as the U.S. does is because of the oil industry.
>>15904Just because we're not seeing the Free Territory of Argentina or the People's Republic of Chile pop up immediately doesn't mean that they're not fighting against US-backed imperialism. These countries are far from perfect but since when has any leftist movement been?
I'm not necessarily the biggest fan of Pedro, owing to his current views on LGBTQ people but out of the two options, he's clearly the better one and presents the potential to transform Peru for the better.
eurekaEureka >>15911>>15912any day now, guys, any day now
>>15918never said they weren't fighting, but it's a fight they're gonna lose
the enemy is too entrenched and too strong
>>15924We don't know yet. Still possible to change.
>>15925She hasn't, yet.
>>15936Also:
>nitterthanks you based link anon
>>15950Yes, they might be counting Lima's rural zones first, which still has huge support for the rightoid.
I guess we are going to see a major shift afterward.
>>15910Lula
will win…
if there's no successful coup. Things are looking up right now tho.
HABBENING
>>15964the gonzalista earlier said the PCP rejected castillo lol
>>15978CAN*
We don't know, yet.
>>15976Le wut?
>>15980He's pure invent.
He invented that Maduro was killing communists, later on, invented quality over quantity, later on, invented very reactionary positions for minorities.
Pure COPE. Don't bother to rationalize what's true or false from him.
If my calcs are correct, now Castillo needs to hold 57% of the votes.
>>15994Sorry, had the calculation backward.
>>16043He means that for him to win he needs to be above 55% in the remaining part.
He's probably cruising at 70+% tbh
sandinistaSandinista >>16045>>16046ah ok, thanks for the clarification
>55% that actually seems very achievable
>>16049My take: Keiko wins 50,8/49,2% due to foreign vote gusanos.
Congress will be a clusterfuck nevertheless.
Instability and new elections ensue.
sandinistaSandinista >>16049>that actually seems very achievableYeah, and see this:
>>15999 from
>>15966 I am kinda convinced he wins, with around 0.5 to 1.5%, and I am not going to buy that he loses this election, and that outcome, IMO, is a stolen election.
>>16064see
>>16058and use the embedded part in the form at the top of the page.
https://orinocotribune.com/bukele-breaks-with-the-oas-we-made-the-mistake-of-putting-our-trust-in-them/Meanwhile Nayib "Jolly" Bukele just broke with the OAS.
Latin America going faster and faster.
sandinistaSandinista >>16070Yeah, kinda right. I was checking the votes on some of the countries abroad in the link:
https://www.resultadossep.eleccionesgenerales2021.pe/SEP2021/EleccionesPresidenciales/RePres/TAnd the votes abroad in many countries I checked are already counted (I noticed Castillo won in Russia… coincidence?)
So, I am convinced this is not crucial, but you are right.
>>16076We have a board where you can test shit. I am not sure if /gulag or the gray one, can't remember its name (like a cemetery? dunno)
But we do have hidden boards for testing purposes.
>>16069>grey one/dead/ doesn't have the theming but it's there
I'd just use an old thread that's about to die on /b/, and sage so it doesn't bump to the top.
>>16063cute
>>16065>>16070also they have the opportunity to vote for the daughter of the most gofawful leader they ever had, gusanos can't pass up
>>16073OAS actually complaining about them?
>>16093It's Biden all over again LMAO
Bidenism-Castillonism when?
>>16086meant for
>>16082but, it's not for testing.
/gulag/ exists but is locked. So yeah, I'd just use an old /b/ thread.
Honestly I'd just test in the soyjak thread >>160994 parties, center right coalition probably.
With such a move they'd have 73 out of 130 seats.
The issues are that a 4 party coalition is not a paradigm of stability and will probably need massive amounts of corruption for the show to keep running, the same corruption of which the average Peruvian is weary.
Add into that that Keiko has a 30 year sentence pending on her neck and you have a recipe for instability.
(Besides that we are talking a government run by criminal fascist, so its not unlikely they will run into massive scandals soon enough).
sandinistaSandinista >>16102>Add into that that Keiko has a 30 year sentence pending on her neck and you have a recipe for instability.What the fuck, I missed this.
What's the charge and how likely is it to be recognized?
I'm jaded by the 'Trump is going to jail' saga >>16122That is correct. Peru is an Andean country and has a SHIT TON of faraway places, just like Bolivia.
It's entirely possible the count will go up to 90% and then stop due to sheer infrastructure problems.
sandinistaSandinista >>16124If we're waiting on the backwater rural areas then I'd say Castillo's got it.
>inb4 "Shining path rebels" with North American accents attack via Blackhawk helicopters & burn trucks carrying the votes to be counted only to mysteriously disappear and never be heard from again.>North American gonzaloists cheer it on & claim it as proof the "peoples war in peru" is winning!>>16125DEUS, PERU, PRESIDENTE CASTILLO
jucheJuche >>16134But is it
really anti-Semitic if you just stick the covetous Jew into the picture as just one of the criminals among a whole group of corrupt capitalist politicians and not the mastermind behind it all?
My political advisor:
>We've done some preliminary polling and focus groups on this question and so far the answer has been overwhelmingly "yes" >>16137Me: Dammit!
*snaps pencil*
>>16134The big nose man probably represents finance capital/banking.
If the bottom side of the picture was all just Jews or emphasizing "Judeo-Capitalists" rather than compradors broadly then obviously it'd be a problem but we have a whole gang of offensive comprador caricatures there, ie the pig nosed yankee caucasiod, the scheming jap, the right wing, white skinned inbred thug with his gun, the LOW-T quasi /pol/ face pety bourgeois guy, etc. I'd willing to bet there probably aren't many prole Jews in Peru anyway as the Sephards in Latin America primarily descend from slave traders so with all of this context I don't see it as a real problem.
jucheJuche >>16148Thank you based iscom.
Source?55% of remaining votes needed.
>>16169oh no, anti-deutsche rethoric is spreading
how often will we hear about being functionally anti-semitic in the future?
>>16172last time i looked he was at 49.234, now he's at 49.414
if he manages to pull this off i retract my previous comments about latam
>>16167Rip all 100 billion victims of Mao Zedong's brutal regime of body-shaming.
>>16181I really hope he does. The man actually seems to have stronger balls than most old pinkwave leaders which gives me some hope.
jucheJuche >>16222>>16225Trying to build a mandate on a result like this is going to cause massive problems for the bouj. Think of how 51/49 in the UK has caused a massive host of issue for the bourgeois (as now they are unable to safely pick a side) leading to the leadership of BJ, rather than a proffered safe option. In the same way the Peruvian bouj cannot realistically build a stable state of affairs, especially if they win by expats.
Delegitimisation of the State is one of the most important tools for tearing down the bouj
>>16228let me dream motherfucker
can diaspora be that fucking shitty
>>16230bj is still the prime minister and him and the conservatives are massacring labour in the polls
admittedly the whole uk press is backing them (as the peruan will be keiko) and the labour leader is a neolib cuck (which castillo isn't)
>>16232Labour had glowies like Owen Jones Paul Mason and Ash Sarkar steering the party towards radlib culture wars and remain.
Pedro has genuine people power fro what i see
sandinistaSandinista >>16232Fuck Labour, they are equally part of the bourgeois which is why Brexit has caused massive issues for the bouj. Once Labour collapses, the left can't be pushed into a 'safe option.'
>>16233 Aye, plus UK is part of the western Imperial core, Peru sits on the periphery. If we define the west as the core and its vassal states, then this is evidence of the internal constrictions of empire beginning to break.
>>16238Yep, gonna bet lots of progressive, proud, super lefty POC queer Peruvian expats in Cali & the US north east are voting for le stunning and brave womxn dictator of color.
Same thing is with (usually Brahmin) Indian expats in the west who talk with african american ebonics & shill intersectional feminism/BLMCIA in the west only to vote BJP & support beating/raping dalits to death in India. Filipino, Vietnamese, Chinese, African expatriates are usually the same too. Self-righteous radlibs who shit on white proles in the west, but are brutal fascists who beat, rape and brutalize poor brown people in their motherlands.
jucheJuche >>16244Officially? I doubt it.
It's pretty fucking clear that electoral fraud is involved here though.
I'm personally hoping Castillo is going to go balls of steel and challenge the results, call them illegitimate, and burn Lima to the fucking ground for this bourgeois ratfucking. This is probably unlikely.
If he cucks out though, which he probably will, Keiko's regime is going to be enormously unstable and being a neoliberal retard she's obviously going to throw more fuel on the fire in the form of punishing the poor and going full neolib.
>301284read
>301286"Lefty"/radlib third world expatriots tend to support the far right in their motherlands. This includes most college queer neon hair latinx who rile on about Trump & White cisheteromales in the US - put them in front of an indigenous child and they'll probably stomp their head into mush for daring to breath the same air as them and call you a colonizer for criticizing them.
jucheJuche >>16259<Less than 0,65% differenceMan this is getting wild.
Castillo should go
WILD on this.
sandinistaSandinista >>16256if by "winning" you mean "catching up" then yes
for the moment.
>>1625953.1 of remaining needed (same as
>>16246)
This graph is fucking stupid but not looking good, goal is to get below (0,0)
>>162801) For the memes
2) Independence and sovereign development are always good in my book
3) Him being elected weakens the blockade around Venezuela by a good deal
sandinistaSandinista >>16290we get it you dislike it when third worlders do socialism without transhumanist and refugee characteristics
now fucking leave the thread
>>1629352.65% of remaining vote needed.
No clear trend.
>>16319This is my bet.
Happenings is over when they say it's over.
>>16326This cant happen Fujibros….
Its over….
pan-africanismPan-Africanism New update:
https://www.resultadossep.eleccionesgenerales2021.pe/SEP2021/EleccionesPresidenciales/RePres/TPedrito - 49.778%
Keiko - 50.222%
91.422% of Votes counted
52.4% of remaining vote needed.
>>16337No fun!
>>16338Last update:
>Pedrito - 49.729%This update:
>Pedrito - 49.778%almost exactly
>>16341 >>16362WOuldn't reddit be pro castillo?
just because most of them are idiots doesn't mean they doesnt hate 'the right'.
New update:
https://www.resultadossep.eleccionesgenerales2021.pe/SEP2021/EleccionesPresidenciales/RePres/TPedrito - 49.797%
Keiko - 50.203%
91.824% of Votes counted
52.3% of remaining vote needed.
>>16379Sure, was meant to before.
x axis: percentage of votes still needing to be counted (currently 8.176%)
y axis: remaining vote % Pedrito needs to win
Formula:
([current vote % for Pedrito]×[votes counted]÷100) + ([remaining vote % Pedrito needed]×[votes remaining]÷100) = 50 or just above
So if the dots hit the vertical line on the left side below 50, they win.
New update:
https://www.resultadossep.eleccionesgenerales2021.pe/SEP2021/EleccionesPresidenciales/RePres/TPedrito - 49.828%
Keiko - 50.172%
92.118% of Votes counted
52.05% of remaining vote needed.
>>16406We lost. FUUUCK.
We should have picked Pedrito instead of thinking with my fat yellow fever dick.
>>16314>OwTheEdgeThe more you speak, the more you're making a fool of yourself
I support
neither of the two →
>>16280socialismSocialism >>16416 (Me)
Ahh I see it, don't worry. "ACTAS CONTABILIZADAS:"
>>16330>>16332>>16335>Muh eeeeevul transhumanists!Strawman and more strawmen. As if I haven't made abundantly clear that my main gripe is that he doesn't man to build socialism, since he openly said this. Trans people live rentfree in your hollow heads.
Please kindly kys, you obsessed /pol/yps.
socialismSocialism >>16421So Evo Morales is not based either?
Do people really have to spell out shit for you to support them?
Graphfag here. As
>>16408 pointed out, I was calculating processed ballots remaining instead of ballots left to count.
All the old records to the right of the dotted red line are now estimates done by shifting them all across, the ones to the left are accurate.
Pedrito - 49.828%
Keiko - 50.172%
90.733% of Votes counted
51.7% of remaining vote needed.
Much better.>>16446I don't speak spanish or know a lot about elections, but I did a bit of searching and I think the first is how many received and ready to count (processed) and the second is how many counted (tabulated).
Would like verification on this.
New update:
https://www.resultadossep.eleccionesgenerales2021.pe/SEP2021/EleccionesPresidenciales/RePres/TPedrito - 49.873%
Keiko - 50.127%
91.157% of Votes counted
51.35% of remaining vote needed.
>>16447And that's just 2 actas
>514 actas left to process in Spain>321 in Italy>1044 in the USNot tryna doom but oh boy we are for a tight one
>>16467Like she cares about her father lol
The breakup between her and her brother was because the latter did some nasty political moves (even criminal you could say, he is being procesed for it) to get him pardoned by New Year.
That make the political crisis of 2017 reach one of its highest points.
She uses the old mushroom to get votes from the hardcore fujis.
>>16447>>16449>>16450>>16451>>16452>>16454Expat votes for Bolsonaro were exactly like that. And Portugal is fucking full of BR reactoids who whine about how socialism ruined Brazil.
>>16467Let me point out that the simple fact that someone so incredibly crooked could run at all is exactly the sort of shit that decaying liberal democracies will have from now on.
New update:
https://www.resultadossep.eleccionesgenerales2021.pe/SEP2021/EleccionesPresidenciales/RePres/TPedrito - 49.906%
Keiko - 50.094%
91.362% of Votes counted
51% of remaining vote needed.
>>16483YES
>>16485Fucking libshit media, if course.
Unique IPs: 1