On the events surrounding Nancy Pelosi’s scheduled visit to TaiwanLast thread:
>>>/leftypol_archive/561633.
Latest headlines:
>Chinese fighter jets fly close to Taiwan ahead of Nancy Pelosi’s visit>Asia stocks fall as China warns against Nancy Pelosi visit to Taiwan >>562597It's obviously an unpredictable situation, I wouldn't rule out a full-blown war, but if I had to *rubs crystal ball* make a prediction of how it'll play out, the U.S. and China basically know the score, Pelosi will visit Taiwan, and China will retaliate by grabbing some islands with some sturm and drang, but there won't be any direct clash between U.S. and Chinese forces. This will work out okay for China because it sets them up in a better position for the war of reunification down the line.
On Pelosi's side, this is an acceptable outcome, since it'll allow her and the Democrats to mobilize Americans behind an anti-China policy, and if the Republicans support it, this is a "bipartisan consensus," while if Republicans oppose it, they'll be engaging in "partisanship" over matters of national security. If the U.S. tries to retaliate against China further in some way, China might impose a no-fly zone or no-navigation zone around Taiwan.
>>562607I don't really understand the timing on Pelosi's side if it's a bid to rally anti-China support, there's no real upcoming policy decisions around that on the docket. that means the main reason would be electoral positioning, but people will have forgotten about this three weeks from now and we're months out from the midterms
the risk/reward calculus just doesn't make any sense to me
copy pasting from hexbear
Chinese “Global Times” summary:
The intensity of the situation across the Taiwan Straits has drastically escalated as the military deployment from the Chinese mainland, US and the island of Taiwan continues creeping up, after US and Taiwan-based media disclosed that US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is expected to visit the island on Tuesday night, a serious provocation and violation to China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity which would be met with severe countermeasures from the Chinese military.
According to the website of China’s Maritime Safety Administration, the Shandong Maritime Safety Administration issued a navigation warning, saying that the Weifang port in Bohai Sea will conduct live fire from 15:00 to 24:00 on August 3. The Qinglan Maritime Safety Administration of South China’s Guangdong Province also issued a navigation warning due to conducting military training in parts of the South China Sea from Tuesday to Saturday.
Citing “officials”, Taiwan-based media on Monday said Pelosi is expected to land in Taipei on Tuesday evening and stay in Taipei overnight at the Grand Hyatt hotel in Xinyi district. CNN also released similar information, saying that “Pelosi is expected to visit Taiwan as part of her tour of Asia.”
The Fujian Provincial Military Command neighboring Taiwan posted videos and pictures on Tuesday about a live-fire exercise, which aims to “test overall combat capability under complex conditions.” It said that the minuteman missile unit, anti-aircraft artillery unit, radar unit and other combat units participated in the exercise, the first time in recent years that a provincial military command has organized a multi-branch and multi-professional militia to conduct live fire
Citing an anonymous source, the Reuters reported on Tuesday that several People’s Liberation Army (PLA) aircrafts flew close to the “median line” of the Taiwan Straits on Tuesday morning, following the Taiwan-based outlets that said two Chinese mainland guided-missile frigates and a survey ship sailed from north to south through Yonaguni Island waters, heading east of Taiwan island.
As of Tuesday noon, flights at airports in several cities in Fujian province, including Xiamen, Fuzhou and Quanzhou, have been partially canceled, according to Xiamen Airlines, citing regional traffic control.
Posting satellite pictures, some netizens on Twitter and Weibo said China’s aircraft carrier Liaoning has left East China’s Qingdao on July 31, and the Shandong left South China’s Sanya on August 1, heading southward, speculating whether they are going to conduct dual carriers’ operations in the Taiwan Straits.
Some analysts said that as Pelosi’s aircraft may enter Taiwan’s self-claimed “air defense identification zone” along the east coast of Taiwan after departing from Malaysia, the Chinese mainland vessels appeared in an earlier time to occupy position and are closely monitoring Pelosi’s route.
Meanwhile, the USS Ronald Reagan reportedly escorting Pelosi is also approaching Taiwan island. A Beijing-based think tank, the South China Sea Strategic Situation Probing Initiative, said that the USS Reagan carrier strike group is already in nearby waters east of the Bashi Channel, the water between Philippine and Taiwan island.
Amphibious assault ship USS Tripoli is also near Japan’s island of Okinawa and amphibious assault ship USS America is deployed in Sasebo, Japan, according to the Nikkei. The media noted that the US Air Force has sent two HC-130J Combat King IIs to Okinawa from Anchorage, Alaska along with multiple KC-135 Stratotankers.
Taiwan authorities are also preparing for the potential crisis caused by Pelosi’s visit. Local media on the island reported on Tuesday that the island’s military has entered a 3-day special “enhanced combat preparation period” from Tuesday morning to the noon of August 4, but the combat readiness level remains unadjusted to the peacetime period.
The military has also sent eight Mirage series fighter jets to the air force base in Taitung, increasing the totaling number of Mirage from 4 to 12 in the base. Besides, Chiayi base has sent the island’s helicopters air rescue group, dubbed “seagulls,” stationed in Taitung.
Global Times reporter learned from a Shanghai-based remote sensing geospatial analysis company Mizar Vision on Tuesday that Pelosi’s aircraft has arrived in Malaysia. And the data showed that US government chartered plane SPAR20 had also arrived in Malaysian airspace from Scott Air Force Base via Japan. Analysts said the move might serve to the escort mission during Pelosi’s Taiwan visit, or it may aiming to replace Pelosi’s previous plane.
Taiwan-based media pointed out that given PLA’s reaction, Pelosi’s aircraft may not have direct access to “flight information region (FIR) of Taiwan,” but will be through the FIR of the Philippines, heading northeast to the US Auckland Oceanic FIR in east of Taiwan island, and fly to Taipei through Japan’s FIR.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian on Monday sternly warned Pelosi’s potential visit to Taiwan, stressing that “the PLA will not sit idly by” and will take “resolute and strong countermeasures” to protect China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202208/1271988.shtml>>562653I believe you're a HAPOONING retard with nothing going on in his/her/their life who roots for war and human misery so you can shitpost on /leftypol/ with more aplomb
Mark my words: this will be a
nothingburger >>562662If the plane approaches from the east like predicted in
>>562626 maybe it'll turn somewhere over Borneo
>>562700nothing is more "reddit" than having kids
ok fuck this I'm going to sleep, good night. sleep is the best because I can not exist in this shit world for a few hours. Adios
>>1099501Are you really smart if you believe in logic from a middling movie?
>>562694have a snickers
>>562732Pelosi has terminal malicious cancer and the deal with the devil expires soon, so she will sacrifice herself to the empire. If she isn't shot down, she will explode her plane to blame China.
>>562734Give link
>>562653Brussels is escalating there also, but nobody gave a shit. Probably because nobody takes the cuck EU serious anymore, which is understandable.
https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4606678DPA uploaded a video on the situation with pretext and everything, i believe he's also of the opinion that China might actually go ahead in order to settle the situation once and for all if Pelosi does not change her mind.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=39aQCvnv8aE&t=1187s&ab_channel=DefensePoliticsAsia >>562682The PLA song and dance commissars are here to get you pumped. This one goes out to everyone in the world. You know it don't even matter your age, don't even matter your color. This is for everybody who likes to dance.
Just listen to what I'm sayin'
And do it
And take a chance
>>562767>>562754Kek now I get it. Chine-eleven.
>>1099580Who's this guy? His name sounds familiar.
>>562777Time to roast Americans and call them pussies
>NOOOO! YOU COMPLAIN NO MATTER WHAT THEY DO!!!Yes.
>>562782>We have no clueActually we do. You were a fetus before your mum shat you out and you rotting corpse will be eaten by crows and insects as has been the fate of many Ukrops in Cuckraine right now. I don't have any gore saved, but I'm sure you could find it yourself if mortality fascinates you so much. I can tell you, it's much more mundane than you believe it is. There is no great memory board for your consciousness in the sky, heaven, when you die. Your consciousness, all your feelings and memories will be gone, lost forever as soon as your brain chemical reactions cease functioning. That's the harsh reality.
Accept it, move on and make the most out of your sorry existence.
>>562815But there's no war going on, You think they'll join against US in the ukranian war, go direct war, or do economic sanctions against them?
Isn't china's model of power nowadays pretty peaceful?
If anything it'll be economic I will guess
>>562807Thanks for reminding me, comrade. I will restock on it, when I get home.
I hope, I still have a few hours time before the panic buy run begins.
Fizzlebros, I don't feel so good.
>>562820Dn worry lil bro
I will game for you
After americans are banned, PS5s will be given to free for everyone else
I can't wait
>>562849I said the same thing about the Russian military movements back in early February and look where we are now. This can only be resolved without any military action if one side cucks out (for now). I think it will be the Chinese, since they have been consistently passive against most Western aggression.
Part of me wants it to escalate.Fact is, Burger warmongers never cuck out. It's all up to China now…
>>562874>i don't want a fucking warWell, we don't have a choice in the matter anyway. Might as well prepare for potential escalation now.
Remember the principles of revolitionary defeatism. If you thought liberal Russophobia was bad, man, Sinophobia will be on another universe-level of bad.
>>562886she turning north bois
probably going to the philippines
>>562888Anyone else having trouble accessing this?
>>1099738Wtffffffffff its happening????? If this sparks another war, I don't know what I'll do.
>>562996🎰🎰🎰🎰🎰
Lucky number seven says: 👂🧏♂️ who must go?
🎰🎰🎰🎰🎰
ALERT !
Urgently ! China attacked Taiwan to prevent Nancy Pelosi's arrival
https://youtu.be/b_0roqTp9UM>>562595>Taiwan isn't realMaybe. But ROCS Hai Lung, Hai Shih & Hai Bao definitely are…
Also, ARP are trained to swin from the taiwanese islands Kinmen & Matsu to China…
Not that I eat seafood, but I'd definitely stay away from taiwanese seafood if SHTF…
>>563115 (me)
*Qing court were assholes for losing Hong Kong, Taiwan, Shanghai, Shandong, Canton, etc.
The reality is that steppe nomads have been pure cringe since Genghis Khan and are a brutal anti-civilizational force REEE
>>563097Doesn't seem rational. Taiwan, unlike Ukraine, cannot even
fight a war. If they go to war on behalf of the US they'd just get flattened from afar. And the USA probably can't afford to sacrifice those juicy semiconductor foundries *yet* OR to seriously damage their trade with China.
The problem seems to be that Ukraine has successfully given NATO their cold war and Europe, but they still need a "Casus Belli" for their main opponent , China. So far, the Uighur glowop, the "Muh enlightened anglo Hon Kong" and the "accomplices of Russia" have gone the way of "chinese hackers" into irrelevancy that no one outside of DoD whipped places like reddit cares about at best, and partisan politics at worst.
So this is just another try to get that "Casus Belli" , that sweet sweet consent to escalate NATO aggression on east Asia.
To the normies they can sell something innocuous as a diplomatic visit as proof that the Chinese really are a warlike expansionist, imperialist, evil doing meanies when they make such a fuss about a sweet old lady visiting the island. While reaffirming how important the US is to the """protection""" of Taiwan and by extension the rest of the surroundings from China's malign influence.
Also , they cornered themselves because last time they tried to pull this stunt China said no and Pelosi had to pretend to catch COVID to cancel the trip. So they cannot back down now. >>563113It's
already a something burger ffs. Even if the plane leaves right now. Haven't you learned anything? History doesn't move from something burger to something burger with nothing burgers inbetween.
There's the always burger, then there's the fucking mega whopper with extra bacon every now and then. The question is what size are we getting today.
>>563132What is target location?
>>563135>Is there a possibility of anti-US protests there? Or anti-war in general?In Taiwan? Are you assuming that the taiwanese doesn't know about Ukraine?
>>563155>Bros is this it is it over for mankind or is it just a nothing burger?Well, check out the posters salivating over missile ranges:
>>563085>>563160Well, there's taiwanese that consider themselves to be taiwanese, not chinese…
>>563128Well Ukraine got beefed up like crazy but Taiwan was to a degree as well. The biggest advantage for Taiwan is the topography. It's surrounded by cliffs and mountainous. But since China has sea superiority, it can basically surround Taiwan from all sides while they can do nothing.
Honestly it feels a bit that China waited for the reaction to the Ukraine war and now knows NATO support has limits and limitations. If they don't kill Pelosi (which I wouldn't recommend since it's an act of war) they can use sharp rhetoric to condemn it and then use that as a justification for an attack.
I mean they are amassing
tanks in Fujin, why would you do that if you just wanna shot up a plane.
The only problem for China is that their economy is much more entangled in the Western economy than Russia's is. If the West decides to enact a similar sanctions regime - not sure if they will - it would clearly be a big challenge for them to overcome.
>>563257I'm taking these dudes with a grain of salt, since they also said the Ukrop army was wiped out in 2 hours last time.
Also Kadyrov is comfy gang and sizzle gang evidently.
>>563265This is why *all* the schizo terror is spook manufactured. If it were real,
someone would be trying to shoot at that plane or at Pelosi.
>>563271 (me) (fatfingered)
Like fuck, imagine *any* variety of schizo when they have
the big red button in front of them. When they could dismantle the global conspiracy with a single shot. When they could save the world and be the hero with a single , simple act. They wouldn't resist it.
But I'm supposed to believe that they are interested in shooting up randoms in a instead, to counter globe spanning conspiracies.
>>563288Welcome to the Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis.
>>563293holy bants
>>563329Why would you risk fucking nuclear war over one senile old fart
Do you really think the CCP got to where it is by being a bunch of manic edgelords with short attention spans like us
>>563359…based MSN? wtf is this
>>563356RIP to the dumbass anons who seriously thought the Chinese would shoot down Pelosi's plane
>>563370UHHNNNNNNGGGGGG I LOVE DEATH MURDER MAKES ME CUMMMMMMMM
LAUNCH THE MISSILES
AAAAAAAAAAAAA
>>563404CHINA OFFICIALLY MALARKEY
>CHINA OFFICIALLY MALARKEYCHINA OFFICIALLY MALARKEY
>CHINA OFFICIALLY MALARKEYCHINA OFFICIALLY MALARKEY
>CHINA OFFICIALLY MALARKEY >>563393>They're going to find actual reasonable means to retaliate with.like coping on social media? lolooolololol
#NANCYGANG
China
will retaliate.
The question is
how.
Losing a ghoul (queen Ghoul, but she can be replaced) does nothing to China or the US. China could easily block transistors from leaving Taiwan for a week, and that act alone can shatter US's economy.
>>563405my normie friends are talking about it
>>563419>my friends areand what was
THEIR source?
>>563422Not me, if that's what you're implying. I don't initiate discussion of any current event anymore.
>>563428Super serious.
>>563430>XIHADISHAHAHAHA
>>563476Ideally by sending a dongfeng missile straight toward Pelosi but that won't happen
c u c k e d, i'm never trusting xibros again
>>563482Welcome to Taiwan, China bitch
Enjoy your stay
>>563485Russian economy? Russian exports?
wowitsfuckingnothing.jpeg
>>563493Oh no, she'll have to stay the night while China has its little temper tantrum.
Anyway…
[Announcement of Xinhua News Agency's authorized on August 2, 2022] Chinese People's Liberation Army
It will be held from 12:00 on August 4, 2022 to 12:00 on August 7, 2022.
Carry out important military training operations in the waters and airspace, and organize them.
Bullet shooting. Specifically, it is:
25°15'26" N, 120°29'20" east longitude, north latitude
24°50'30", 120°05'45" east longitude, 25°04'32" north latitude, east
Longitude 119°51'22", latitude 25°28'12" north, longitude 120°14'30"
Connect at four o'clock.
26°07'00 N, 121°5700 E, N
25°30’00, 121°57’00 east longitude, 25°30’00 north latitude, east
Longitude 121°28’00", 26°07'00 N, 121°28'00 E
Connect at four o'clock.
25°34’00" N, 122°50’00" east longitude, north latitude
25°03°00", 122°50’00 east longitude, 25°03’00 north latitude, east
Longitude 122011’00", latitude 25°34'00 N, longitude 122°11'00"
Connect at four o'clock.
22°56’00 N, 122°40’00 E, N
23°38'00", 122°51'00 E, 23°38'00 N, EAST
Longitude 123°23'00", 22°5600 N, 123°0g’00" east longitude
Connect at four o'clock.
21014'00 N, 121033'00 east longitude, north latitude
21033'00, 121018'00 east longitude, 21°07'00 north latitude, east
Longitude 120°43’00", latitude 20°48’00 north latitude, longitude 120°59’00"
Connect at four o'clock.
22°43°00 N, 119°14'00 E, N
22°10’00, 119°06’00 E, 21°33 N
>>563477TIL: Последнее китайское предупреждение
Anyone who has heard a mother ranting and fuming against her children knows what it means. XD
>>562581That is probably spoofed data , A high value asset like a top level cabinet minister would not be traveling on a vehicle with an active transponder that is sqwarking accurate information.
There is probably a second plane not far away broadcasting something nondescript like a cargo flight that is the real VIP transport , and the plane claiming to be the VIP transport is probably a dummy that looks identical to fool potential attackers.
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