The beginning of the systematic collapse begun on the 21st of November 2024. Here's an incomplete list of events following from that date.
21st of Nov, 2024: Gazprom Bank sanctioned. Without too much details, this was strategically timed within a small gap of Russian weakness and patching of that weakness.
RUB collapses
RCB forced to suspend currency exchange as RUB reach 113 to USD on 28th of Nov.
China and India begun refusing RUB, only accepting trade through CNY and INR.
From trade surplus, Russia began accumulating non-liquid CNY and IRN.
Russia began buying domestically liquid RUB from CNY and IRN.
Monetary pressure on CNY and IRN cause trade with Russia to contract with increased pressure on discounts.
February: Increased oil production from Saudi Arabia and the US slowly lowered international oil prices. Undercutting Russia's 2025 budgeted oil prices.
Across spring: Failed peace negotiations, continued high spending, secret bank bailouts, increased figures on market bankruptcy at record high cooperate debt, and political cracks begun eroding market trust as trade revenue cuts deep into 2025 state budget.
26th of April, RCB announced the 21% interest rate would remain for an extended period (hinting for at least another 6 months)
16th of May, Russia's peace delegation claimed Russia could continue this war for as long as it takes in Turkey. A direct contradiction to RCB previous statement.
June 1st: Remaining OPEC+ begun increasing oil production, further pushing international oil prices down.
After hours on 5th of June, RCB announce economy was doing better than expected and lowers interest rates to 20%. This is a contradiction from previous statements, a clear indicator that RCB no longer acted on behalf of the economy but on political agenda.
6th of June, market collapsed in a phenomena called market/central bank decoupling, indicating loss of market trust and monetary control. This phenomena is a historical indicator of incoming deep recessions, runaway capital flight, severe loss of monetary control and can easily lead to economic collapse.
This forced RCB and Kremlin to begin showing partial real data in attempt to earn back market trust and regain monetary control. This while state spending to prop up the economy increased sharply while revenue from international trade and oil prices was in decline. This severely increased RCB spending of the NWF.
25th of June, RCB lowered interest rates to 18% causing another market/central bank decoupling. This revealed that Russia's campaign to restore market trust through huge expenditure had failed resulting in loss of NWF liquidity and increased political distrust.
These are all indicators that Russia's market is collapsing under monetary pressure, while inflation remains uncontrolled, increased state expenditure while state revenue contracts showing real signs of increased risks to trade partners.
August: Ukraine began its sanctions against Russia's oil infrastructure, targeting the fragile fuel market keeping Russia's economy going. This was absolutely strategically timed when the market, monetary and political trust hit record lows. China and India begun accelerating diversifying trade, understanding Russian trade had become a liability.
>>2532066>If you're trying to destabilize Russia by ruining Putin's credibility,You keep trying to make an argument that already failed ("MUH NUKE-MONGERING CUCKTINISTS NEVER CALL FOR NUKES ON NATO COUNTRIES").
You do you, I guess. You're not the first person to double down on a weak argument as you try to get people to believe that those who want Putin to go harder on Ukraine are the real NAFOids.
Btw, still spelling city names the Ukrainian way, NAFOid?
Today: Market, monetary and political pressure can no longer be stopped, it can only be slowed down through increase debts, state capture of capitals and companies and increased capital printing. While this pushes the inevitable collapse further forward in the future, it does so at a cost of making that collapse more devastating.
Russia's state issued OFZ bonds has been forced to be bought up by the banking sector (there's been cases of bankers responsible for their bank purchases of these bonds have fallen out of windows). This serves as state loans to fund its budget deficit, however it doesn't come cheap, these bonds have an interest rate of ~16%. Russia had 3.5 trillion RUB in circulation in September, two times that of the already high circulation across the entire 2024 and already as high as Russia's budget deficit in 2024. Historically, OFZ bond issuing sharply increase in Oct, Nov and Dec as that is the time Russia typically pay most of their bills. As Russia have exceptionally high bills to pay this year we can assume OFZ bonds in circulation will increase sharply in the next few months.
This eats up bank liquidity which coupled with sharply increased withdrawals from banks and capital flight a high risk for future bank runs. Banks have already warned of risk for needed bailouts in the future, and this is being accelerated quickly due to Ukrainian and Western sanctions. The very high interest rate and exceptionally high bond issuing with no clear solutions as to how the state can pay these increases the risks of defaults, a default would collapse the value of OFZ bonds. This is a bubble, the state forces bonds to be bought up and might be forced to issue more bonds to pay interest on old ones, drying up bank liquidity. When banks no longer can buy bonds for the state to repay old bonds, the state defaults on payments and bond value collapses, leading to bank and state bankruptcy.
In August we witnessed the beginning of the end of Russia as Ukraine seized the opportunity to hammer a wedge into the crack that was created on the 21st of November, 2024.
>>2532069You said you meant Luhansk.
>>2531985The cope is unreal.
>On March 29, 2022, we withdrew our troops from Kiev because we were assured that it was necessary to create the necessary conditions for completing the political negotiation process, for completing this process. And that it is not possible for one side to sign such agreements, as our Western colleagues said, with a gun to the head. Fine, we agreed to this too.He got fooled into retreating for a bullshit reason that made no sense. Simple as.
Based, nobody will ever be able to convince me that a Christoid is smart and makes good decisions. And Putin is a Christoid.
There have never been a group more invested in backseating (a variation of cheering) a bourgeois, reactionary regime than Cucktin posters.
>>2532157I don't know why you take criticism of Christoid softcocks so personally.
>>2532144Rejecting the MIC conspiracy theory requires accepting the absurd claim that Ukraine has nothing capable of reaching high-profile sites in Moscow and St. P. Or even flying SBU agents in there.
But we will have our moment, MIC conspiracy bros.
Eventually a critical mass of people will ask themselves about this war confined largely to Donbass for four years. Great Patriotic War took 3 years, 11 months.
And we're supposed to believe that Zelensky totes wants to hit Moscow as he claims but doesn't have anything that can reach there. Can't smuggle anything in. Only insured refineries allowed to be hit at 3am.
We're supposed to believe the only missile Ukraine can produce is something that looks like a breadboard kit from Radio Shack.
>>2532165What criticism? You don't criticize anti-communists, you shoot them. But since Putin is out of reach, he can play his game.
I'm not defending Putin, I'm attacking (you). You're just a loser, trying to live out your revolutionary fantasies through fucking Putin, of all people. Stick to Rojava next time. Oh… wait.
>Volkswagen Group is €11 billion short next year, and lacks funds to produce new car models. Volkswagen half-year report for 2025 showed operating profit down 33% from a year earlier and a negative cash flow of €1.4 billion. VW plans deep cuts, asset sales, and leadership changes.another wunderunternehmen on the ropes.
>>2532129>China and India begun refusing RUB, only accepting trade through CNY and INR.Even if that were
true:
this is not an upsetting situation, because then Russia can purchase stuff in China and India.
What you describe in that paragraph is basically a barter, between oil currencies, and then materials. both countries buy a lot of finished products from Russia, which in exchange reliefs that "pressure" you think exists.
> 26th of April, RCB announced the 21% interest rate would remain for an extended periodnot the first time the interest rates are that high. it has been higher in the past. Early the 2000s it was higher.
>A direct contradiction to RCB previous statement.interest rates are not an indication of the capability or ability for a war at all.
you are making shit up. because Russia it's not under a state of war economy.
>This is a contradiction from previous statements, a clear indicator that RCB no longer acted on behalf of the economy but on political agenda.lmao, central bank revisit all the time their numbers and continuously change their policies. see how many times jerome powell have changed the interest rates across different rates.
you just want to interconnect two events following a correlation-causation relationship, without tackling the source of the central bank reasoning they've presented.
>6th of June, market collapsed in a phenomena called market/central bank decoupling, indicating loss of market trust and monetary control.what indicators reflect this? inflation? consumer indexes collapsing?
WHERE ARE THEY?
>This forced RCB and Kremlin to begin showing partial real data in attempt to earn back market trust and regain monetary control.what data is hidden?
>while revenue from international trade and oil prices was in declineoil prices have been stable, second graph.
>international trade decline.looks very stable to me, first graph. in fact, in increased a bit from 2023 to 2024.
>China and India begun accelerating diversifying trade, understanding Russian trade had become a liability.diversifying=/=liability.
liability would have been not to diversify and let the Russian state sink.
hey, you can always dream about a Russian economic collapse.
>>2532213You can try threading the needle all you like, but defending the military decisions of someone you designate the leader of a "bourgeois, reactionary regime" is sadder than criticizing them.
>>2532218"Defending" in this case is questioning your squealing why Putin won't just use nuclear weapons. Sure, I'll take the sadness of
not crying why Putin won't just end it all. It isn't Putin's job to deliver you your revolutionary conditions. It's yours.
My advice to TankAnon would be to drop the flag before running the "you're a loser" shtick. Not that he's necessarily wrong, but it doesn't land as well when people envision some 40-something fat dude sitting in his gaming chair while downing antidepressants. And that's only what he's told us himself! :)
>>2532230If I'm not wrong, then that must sting even harder.
>>2532229>"Defending" in this case is questioning your squealing why Putin won't just use nuclear weapons.Oh, we're back to imagining things again. You're not a revolutionary, bootlicker. Get it straight!
>>2532233Damn, so this post
>>2530015 is just my imagination?
>>2532240>your squealing why Putin won't just use nuclear weapons.>yourYou really are stupid.
>>2532233>bootlicking person is when that person tells you are told you are a joke for expecting things, instead of making things on your own.damn, I guess Hoxha was a bootlicker when criticized China, or Rosa criticized the SPD or Castro when he criticized the CPUSA.
>>2532244Ooh, the "Cucktin posters are not a monolith" approach. Always fun, and insipid. So what "criticism" (that doesn't call for nuclear escalation) have (you) posted?
>>2532258Take your meds, bootlicker.
>>2532260Already have. I'll chase them with your concession, dipshit.
>>2532251Try writing coherently.
Or scream about "cuckteen" posters again. Flaggies live vicariously through Putin and take criticism of him as criticism of themselves.
>>2532264You're obese and heavily medicated, by your own admission. You live vicariously through Putin's "patience" and "lack of impulse" because you're such a petulant waste of breath and aspire to be unfazed yourself.
>>2532266>muh write coherententlyyou understood the text. get mad.
Make a new thread
>>2532272>mad about people calling Putin softYikes, how deranged.
>>2532271>You live vicariously through Putin's "patience" and "lack of impulse"I rarely post, and I don't even think about Putin often. You can stop projecting any time. Only, in your case, you're frustrated that Putin isn't fulfilling your fantasy of defeating the West how you imagine it would go, so he's actually denying you, reminding you of your own impotence.
>>2532283>I rarely postlmao
>I don't even think about Putin often.You think about him by association every time you think about muh Cucktin posters, which is 16-18 hours a day. I know the meds may be distorting your executive function, but look at the big picture here: you sit around on an imageboard fixated on people who call Putin too soft for their liking. Of all the things to do, that's what you choose.
>>2532279>invent a definition of bootlicking>gets reminded of revolutionary people criticizing others for inaction>gets asked if they are bootlickers too<Try writing coherently. yeah, possitive for being mad. stay mad.
>>2532300I intervened before but deleted, since it would add to the confusion, to be clear not the other person with the tank flag
Hurry, keep profiling everybody posting with a flag that everybody can use, yes yes all people posting on an anonymous image board are gay faggot Jewish gypsy indian wiggers including you, what's new?
>>2532321>to be clear not the other person with the tank flagOoh, the "Tank flag posters are not a monolith" approach.
>>2532321 (me)
Also obese
If you want to watch a meltdown just repeatedly call the obsessive flag watcher a fattie and enjoy
I'm glad Las FARC started using a flag just to make it clear that the unique IPs were deceptive and it really is just the same 3-4 flaggie deadenders having meltdowns whenever someone suggests more maximalist aims in Ukraine.
>>2532325iirc, you had a meltdown when asked whether you, as a Russian, actually know anyone in the war or are just reflexively quarterbacking for those who do.
>@McDonalds has just opened its 50th restaurant in Kyiv, running on a generator and full of families looking for warmth, food, and connection.
>Opening a new restaurant during a war is more than a business decision — it’s a statement of resilience, hope, and community.
>In the face of challenges, McDonald’s continues to show what it means to keep going.I’m lovin it - and inspired by it
>>2532316ok, grammar nazi.
So from the temperature of the thread we can assume the west is continuing to lose in the Ukraine?
>>2532349btw, mcdonalds' employees are exempt from mobilization.
incredible, isn't?
this is how imperialism really looks like: transnational companies above the law, by making their own laws.
>>2532354dunno, give us the body counts of russians vs. natoids so we can check
>>2532368no, give us the real numbers.
# of russians dead
vs.
# of natoids dead
my own estimate would be 200,000-300,000 russians dead, a million or more hohol meat dead, and less than 100 natoids dead… probably up to around 5,000 natoids dead if we include the merc scam
>>2532368My theory has always been Ukraine claims their own number of losses with a markup as Russias loses. So this confirms Ukraine really has lost over a million.
>>2532389nobody cares about hohol/banderite meat, tho. not even the west does, hence the silence about hohols/banderites being vanned.
what matters for the international leftist is number of natoids dead.
Unique IPs: 8