quick and vulgar question but have any political analysts actually been mostly right in their predictions for the course of society (and the economy, geopolitics, etc.) in the past several years? people will frequently link me to substacks and shit saying stuff like "THIS guy is the one who gets it, everyone else is just rubes", it's someone making extremely bold and contrarian predictions, maybe getting one or two right but then just looking like an idiot in a short time. mainstream analysts are hardly any better (remember nate silver?).
i know, it's impossible to actually predict the future and even a 60% rate of correctness would be absurdly high for something as chaotic as civilization, but there's gotta be someone out there who isn't just flailing at the thing that's supposed to be their job and i'd love to know who they are.