>>562270US presidential elections have been relatively narrow over the last 30 years, and 2020 was no exception. Republican turnout is usually consistent, so the deciding factor will be Democrat turnout. (This is the reason why progressives vote shame more often than conservatives, and why conservatives accuse Democrats of using immigrants to boost votes.)
What’s interesting is that 2020 was still relatively narrow despite a higher overall turnout; Biden won because a few thousand people died of COVID in conservative districts across states like Georgia and Michigan. Add to this an unpopular Democrat presidency (of which the running Democrat is a part of) and Kamala Harris being ridiculously uncharismatic and it makes her campaign an uphill battle.
I would also say that Harris doubling down on insane right-wing nonsense like fracking expansions, anti-immigration, Israeli arms shipments, lab-leak myth, etc. should be making her unpopular as well, but American voters have the memory of a goldfish (if the assassination attempt on Trump is anything to go by). As sad as it is to admit, more voters will probably be persuaded by “anyone but Trump!” than actually looking at her policies (most of which are very slimy, like promising to legalize abortion ‘’if Congress votes for it’’, lol).
For now we should wait and see what MSM is saying a few weeks before election day, because that’ll be what pushes undecided voters the most.