How Syria became the battleground for Israeli and Turkish influenceWatching the geopolitical landscape in the Middle East in recent months, it would be tempting to conclude that Israel’s strategic position has improved. The same could be said for Turkey. Could this situation constitute a recipe for stability, or presage further troubles ahead? Although engaged in conflict on multiple fronts - Gaza, the occupied West Bank, Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, and Iran - Israel appears to have prevailed for the time being, while the Tehran-led “axis of resistance” seems in disarray. Iran’s military leadership and infrastructure were severely hit during the June war, which also damaged the state’s nuclear programme, although how much it has been set back remains unclear. The Iranian response was muted after the US bombed the Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan nuclear sites on 22 June. Syria, meanwhile, is now ruled by a former al-Qaeda militant whose reputation was laundered at record speed by western democracies. Decades of American and European mobilisation against extremist groups such as the Islamic State and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham were tossed into the garbage within days, further confirming western double standards. Iran’s main logistical route to support Hezbollah in Lebanon has thus been severed. As for the Lebanese movement itself, it has been severely weakened with the loss of leader Hassan Nasrallah and other top figures. It is now under strong pressure, both internal and international, to give up its military arsenal. At the same time, Israel’s ruthlessness in Gaza, which has been turned into a massive killing field as starving civilians queue to receive limited humanitarian aid, has degraded much of its international support. But Israel’s extremist government does not really care about the world’s opinion, as long as western nations continue to provide support (and others, such as Russia and China, remain inexplicably neutral). As for Turkey, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan recently succeeded in neutralising the main security threat along its southeastern border, the Kurdistan Workers’ Party. It also prevailed in its long-sought objective to remove Bashar al-Assad from power in Syria, replacing him with Ahmed al-Sharaa. And last but not least, Ankara has bolstered its global reputation as the go-to mediator in the Russia-Ukraine war. Alongside Israel, Turkey has become a top regional actor. In this context, any path towards stability in s
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