In 2010 A paper was published which predicted widespread unrest in western Europe and the USA, 10 years later it was vindicated. So what exactly were they doing? and why am I telling you this? Let's find out.
First Let's have a look at the graph's of Temporal trends in anti-government protests and then that of riots respectively. One will notice that what the report predicted was correct mass unrest and societal instability has risen dramatically in the western world.
So what are they doing?
The report is based on a field called Clio dynamics which examines societal instability using four factors. >Mass mobilization potential:When the supply of labour exceeds its demand, the price of labour decreases,
depressing the living standards for the majority of population, thus leading to popular immiseration and growing mass-mobilization potential, but creating
favourable economic conditions for the elites.>Intra-elite competition:Favorable economic conjuncture for the elites results in increasing numbers of elites
and elite aspirants, as well as runaway growth of elite consumption levels. Elite overproduction results when elite numbers and appetites exceed the ability of the
society to sustain them, leading to spiraling intraelite competition and conflict.>State fragility:A fiscal crisis reduces the state’s control of the coercive apparatus (police and army). The state’s legitimacy crisis undermines the willingness of the elites and the population to defend state institutions against the assault by radical groups.>External factors:Whereas the first three mechanisms are internal, societal stability is also affected by
external factors: geopolitical (e.g., foreign support for the opposition), geo-economic (shifting prices of international commodities), and geo-cultural (a successfulPost too long. Click here to view the full text.